arXiv subjects

Hansjoerg Albrecher

Publications and source records attributed to Hansjoerg Albrecher.

26 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2020

Multivariate fractional phase--type distributions

We extend the Kulkarni class of multivariate phase--type distributions in a natural time--fractional way to construct a new class of multivariate distributions with heavy-tailed Mittag-Leffler(ML)-distributed marginals. The approach relies on assigning rewards to a non--Mar\-ko\-vi\-an jump process with ML sojourn times. This new class complements an earlier multivariate ML construction \cite{multiml} and in contrast to the former also allows for tail dependence. We derive properties and characterizations of this class, and work out some special cases that lead to explicit density representations.

math.PR↗

arXiv2020

Multivariate Matrix Mittag--Leffler distributions

We extend the construction principle of multivariate phase-type distributions to establish an analytically tractable class of heavy-tailed multivariate random variables whose marginal distributions are of Mittag-Leffler type with arbitrary index of regular variation. The construction can essentially be seen as allowing a scalar parameter to become matrix-valued. The class of distributions is shown to be dense among all multivariate positive random variables and hence provides a versatile candidate for the modelling of heavy-tailed, but tail-independent, risks in various fields of application.

math.PR↗

arXiv2019

Combined Tail Estimation Using Censored Data and Expert Information

We study tail estimation in Pareto-like settings for datasets with a high percentage of randomly right-censored data, and where some expert information on the tail index is available for the censored observations. This setting arises for instance naturally for liability insurance claims, where actuarial experts build reserves based on the specificity of each open claim, which can be used to improve the estimation based on the already available data points from closed claims. Through an entropy-perturbed likelihood we derive an explicit estimator and establish a close analogy with Bayesian methods. Embedded in an extreme value approach, asymptotic normality of the estimator is shown, and when the expert is clair-voyant, a simple combination formula can be deduced, bridging the classical statistical approach with the expert information. Following the aforementioned combination formula, a combination of quantile estimators can be naturally defined. In a simulation study, the estimator is shown to often outperform the Hill estimator for censored observations and recent Bayesian solutions, some of which require more information than usually available. Finally we perform a case study on a motor third-party liability insurance claim dataset, where Hill-type and quantile plots incorporate ultimate values into the estimation procedure in an intuitive manner.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2015

Strikingly simple identities relating exit problems for Lévy processes under continuous and Poisson observations

We consider exit problems for general Lévy processes, where the first passage over a threshold is detected either immediately or at an epoch of an independent homogeneous Poisson process. It is shown that the two corresponding one-sided problems are related through a surprisingly simple identity. Moreover, we identify a simple link between two-sided exit problems with one continuous and one Poisson exit. Finally, Poisson exit of a reflected process is connected to the continuous exit of a process reflected at Poisson epochs, and a link between some Parisian type exit problems is established. With the appropriate perspective, the proofs of all these relations turn out to be quite elementary. For spectrally one-sided Lévy processes this approach enables alternative proofs for a number of previously established identities, providing additional insight.

math.PR↗

arXiv2015

Optimal Dividend Strategies for Two Collaborating Insurance Companies

We consider a two-dimensional optimal dividend problem in the context of two insurance companies with compound Poisson surplus processes, who collaborate by paying each other's deficit when possible. We solve the stochastic control problem of maximizing the weighted sum of expected discounted dividend payments (among all admissible dividend strategies) until ruin of both companies, by extending results of univariate optimal control theory. In the case that the dividends paid by the two companies are equally weighted, the value function of this problem compares favorably with the one of merging the two companies completely. We identify this optimal value function as the smallest viscosity supersolution of the respective Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation and provide an iterative approach to approximate it numerically. Curve strategies are identified as the natural analogue of barrier strategies in this two-dimensional context. A numerical example is given for which such a curve strategy is indeed optimal among all admissible dividend strategies, and for which this collaboration mechanism also outperforms the suitably weighted optimal dividend strategies of the two stand-alone companies.

math.OC↗

arXiv2014

Power identities for Lévy risk models under taxation and capital injections

In this paper we study a spectrally negative Lévy process which is refracted at its running maximum and at the same time reflected from below at a certain level. Such a process can for instance be used to model an insurance surplus process subject to tax payments according to a loss-carry-forward scheme together with the flow of minimal capital injections required to keep the surplus process non-negative. We characterize the first passage time over an arbitrary level and the cumulative amount of injected capital up to this time by their joint Laplace transform, and show that it satisfies a simple power relation to the case without refraction. It turns out that this identity can also be extended to a certain type of refraction from below. The net present value of tax collected before the cumulative injected capital exceeds a certain amount is determined, and a numerical illustration is provided.

q-fin.PR↗

arXiv2014

Joint asymptotic distributions of smallest and largest insurance claims

Assume that claims in a portfolio of insurance contracts are described by independent and identically distributed random variables with regularly varying tails and occur according to a near mixed Poisson process. We provide a collection of results pertaining to the joint asymptotic Laplace transforms of the normalized sums of the smallest and largest claims, when the length of the considered time interval tends to infinity. The results crucially depend on the value of the tail index of the claim distribution, as well as on the number of largest claims under consideration.

math.PR↗

arXiv2013

A risk model with an observer in a Markov environment

We consider a spectrally-negative Markov additive process as a model of a risk process in random environment. Following recent interest in alternative ruin concepts, we assume that ruin occurs when an independent Poissonian observer sees the process negative, where the observation rate may depend on the state of the environment. Using an approximation argument and spectral theory we establish an explicit formula for the resulting survival probabilities in this general setting. We also discuss an efficient evaluation of the involved quantities and provide a numerical illustration.

math.PR↗