arXiv subjects

Hao Duong Le

Publications and source records attributed to Hao Duong Le.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Bridging the Information Gap: Semantic Densification and Hindsight Distillation for Cold-Start Prediction

New-user cold-start is a critical bottleneck for e-commerce platforms: predicting user lifetime value (LTV) and conversion rate (CVR) for users with sparse interaction history. Two prior directions -- LLM-based semantic augmentation and learning using privileged information (LUPI) -- each face a key limitation. First, LLM augmentation produces unstructured rationales that are noisy and hard to operationalize in production. Second, naive student-teacher distillation can be brittle due to an information gap between the privileged teacher and the sparse student; moreover, this gap is heterogeneous across users. We propose SemRaD, a Semantic Reasoning-aware Distillation framework addressing both limitations. First, a Structured Semantic Reasoning Pipeline replaces free-form rationales with a structured schema built via a discover-curate-audit workflow, producing per user a Densified Semantic Profile (consumed by the deployed student via a Semantic-Gated Encoder that focuses on the most informative dimensions) and a Hindsight Distillation Target reconciled from pre- and post-conversion reasoning (used only at training). Second, to bridge this gap and handle its heterogeneity, a Hindsight-Aware Distillation Network transfers privileged knowledge via the hindsight target, with Distillation Experts improving transfer under per-user variability. On a large-scale industrial dataset, SemRaD lifts +1.9% LTV (Gini) and +1.0% CVR (AUROC) over a production-grade base; a four-week online A/B at Keeta confirms +1.0% LTV / +0.43% CVR. SemRaD also matches the production system's LTV using only 9% of the training data while improving CVR by 0.8%.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Towards Foundation Models for Zero-Shot Time Series Anomaly Detection: Leveraging Synthetic Data and Relative Context Discrepancy

Time series anomaly detection (TSAD) is a critical task, but developing models that generalize to unseen data in a zero-shot manner remains challenging. Existing foundation models for TSAD often rely on reconstruction-error scoring at inference time, which can miss subtle anomalies that are well reconstructed and can falsely flag complex but normal patterns in unseen domains. We introduce TimeRCD, a foundation model for TSAD built on Relative Context Discrepancy (RCD), a pre-training paradigm that trains the model to detect anomalies by comparing a query pattern with its surrounding context. This relational formulation, implemented with a standard Transformer architecture, enables the model to infer normality from the input context rather than relying on fixed global normal patterns. We further construct a large-scale synthetic corpus with context-dependent anomaly labels to provide supervised pre-training signals for RCD. Experiments across diverse benchmarks show that TimeRCD outperforms existing general-purpose and anomaly-specific foundation models in most zero-shot TSAD settings, while remaining competitive with dataset-specific full-shot baselines. These results provide empirical evidence that RCD is an effective direction for building robust and generalizable TSAD models.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Multi-Agent Causal Discovery Using Large Language Models

Causal discovery aims to identify causal relationships between variables and is a fundamental problem across the sciences. Traditional statistical causal discovery (SCD) methods rely solely on observational data and ignore the contextual information available in metadata, whereas recent LLM-based methods exploit metadata but treat the large language model (LLM) as a single agent, leaving its judgments vulnerable to memorized or biased associations. To address this gap, we introduce MAC (Multi-Agent Causal Discovery Framework), which casts causal discovery as a multi-agent debate coupled with the autonomous selection of an SCD algorithm. MAC combines two complementary modules, bridged by a Meta Fusion mechanism: a Debate-Coding Module (DCM) that grounds an initial graph in data by autonomously selecting and executing the best-suited SCD algorithm, and a Meta-Debate Module (MDM) that refines the graph through an adversarial Affirmative-Negative-Judge debate over the metadata. Across five benchmark datasets and three metrics (F1, SHD, NHD), MAC achieves the best aggregate performance among five statistical and four LLM-based baselines, ranking first on 10 of 15 evaluation points with Gemini-2.0-Flash -- including a perfect reconstruction of the Earthquake graph -- and remains robust across three backbone LLMs.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

AXIS: Explainable Time Series Anomaly Detection with Large Language Models

Time-series anomaly detection (TSAD) increasingly demands explanations that articulate not only if an anomaly occurred, but also what pattern it exhibits and why it is anomalous. Leveraging the impressive explanatory capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs), recent works have attempted to treat time series as text for explainable TSAD. However, this approach faces a fundamental challenge: LLMs operate on discrete tokens and struggle to directly process long, continuous signals. Consequently, naive time-to-text serialization suffers from a lack of contextual grounding and representation alignment between the two modalities. To address this gap, we introduce AXIS, a framework that conditions a frozen LLM for nuanced time-series understanding. Instead of direct serialization, AXIS enriches the LLM's input with three complementary hints derived from the series: (i) a symbolic numeric hint for numerical grounding, (ii) a context-integrated, step-aligned hint distilled from a pretrained time-series encoder to capture fine-grained dynamics, and (iii) a task-prior hint that encodes global anomaly characteristics. Furthermore, to facilitate robust evaluation of explainability, we introduce a new benchmark featuring multi-format questions and rationales that supervise contextual grounding and pattern-level semantics. Extensive experiments, including both LLM-based and human evaluations, demonstrate that AXIS yields explanations of significantly higher quality and achieves competitive detection accuracy compared to general-purpose LLMs, specialized time-series LLMs, and time-series Vision Language Models.

cs.LG↗