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Hao Miao

Publications and source records attributed to Hao Miao.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

DGCPath: Distribution-Aware Generative Contrastive Framework for Self-supervised Path Representation Learning -- Extended Version

Due to the proliferation of vehicle trajectory data enabled by advanced sensing technologies, path representation learning has become a pivotal task in intelligent transportation systems. Although existing self-supervised approaches have achieved promising performance, their dependence on deterministic contrastive learning paradigms and handcrafted view augmentation strategies inherently restricts their cross-scenario generalization capabilities. To address these limitations, we present DGCPath, an innovative Distribution-aware Generative Contrastive learning framework for Path representation. This framework establishes a synergistic connection between generative modeling and distributional contrastive learning, enabling the acquisition of robust and transferable feature embeddings. Specifically, our framework incorporates: (1) a diffusion-based view generator that autonomously produces semantically coherent yet diverse trajectory views from Gaussian noise; (2) a variational contrastive mechanism that enforces latent feature alignment at the distribution level, transcending conventional instance-wise consistency; and (3) a novel generative cross-supervision module that reinforces view-level consistency through cross-view reconstruction learning. Comprehensive evaluations on three real-world trajectory datasets demonstrate that DGCPath outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on two distinct downstream tasks, validating its enhanced generalization capability and representation effectiveness.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

ORBITER: Conflict-Aware Decision-Making for Agentic Last-Mile Delivery

Last-mile delivery aims to handle dynamically arriving orders with couriers while modeling complex spatial and temporal correlations. Recent learning-based methods model spatiotemporal dependencies among orders to predict courier service sequences, but leave next-order decision making unexplained. Describing the current delivery state in language allows LLMs to reason explicitly about the spatial, temporal, and behavioral cues behind an individual decision. As direct predictors, however, LLMs remain sensitive to task presentation and often produce unreliable decisions. To address these challenges, we introduce ORBITER, an agentic Order Arbiter for next-order decision-making in last-mile delivery. ORBITER models courier service through decision points, each containing the courier's spatiotemporal state and visible orders and exposing local trade-offs for modeling and verification. Fixed proposers rank the candidates, and a structured report identifies where their rankings disagree. The LLM uses task-specific tools to gather evidence on the leading alternatives, while an independent critic checks the resulting decision against that evidence. We conduct extensive evaluations on data in four cities, where ORBITER outperforms existing state-of-the-art baselines by up to 9.2% on average showing its effectiveness.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2026

ViTexSZ: Heterogeneous Vision-Text Knowledge Distillation for EEG Seizure Detection

Automated seizure detection from electroencephalography (EEG) is essential for continuous neurological monitoring, particularly for subclinical epileptic seizures that may exhibit only subtle electrographic changes. Existing time-series methods are often designed for fixed EEG channel configurations, thereby limiting their applicability to heterogeneous EEG recordings with irregular channel layouts. Although visual and language modeling offer promising alternatives, aligning heterogeneous EEG representations with clinical semantics remains challenging. We introduce ViTexSZ, a heterogeneous Vision-Text knowledge distillation framework for EEG seizure detection. ViTexSZ converts EEG recordings into structured waveform images and introduces a query-based multi-channel alignment module that maps source-dependent visual features into a unified token space. A heterogeneous teacher further integrates the aligned EEG representations with clinical prompts through a multimodal large language model, associating high-level clinical semantics with seizure-related evidence. Vision-text knowledge distillation then transfers the teacher representations to a lightweight student during detection. Experiments on four EEG seizure datasets demonstrate the generalizability of ViTexSZ across both subclinical and general seizure detection scenarios, achieving the highest accuracy on all datasets and relative improvements of up to 12.9% over the second-best baselines, showing its effectiveness.

cs.CV↗
arXiv2026

FreSH: Frequency-Segmented Hierarchical Multi-Expert Framework for Multivariate Time Series Classification

Multivariate Time Series Classification (MTSC) demands models that can effectively capture complex temporal patterns across multiple scales while remaining computationally efficient. However, existing approaches generally struggle to reconcile fine-grained representation learning, especially under class imbalance and real-world constraints. In this paper, we present FreSH, a Frequency-Segmented Hierarchical Multi-Expert Framework designed to address these challenges. FreSH introduces a new perspective for MTSC by enabling adaptive, multi-scale analysis of temporal signals, allowing different aspects of the data to be modeled in a complementary and coordinated manner. By combining localized specialization with holistic context modeling, FreSH achieves strong representational capacity without incurring excessive computational overhead. An adaptive fusion strategy further enhances flexibility, enabling the model to dynamically emphasize the most informative components of the input. In addition, we incorporate a more robust optimization objective that improves learning stability across varying sample difficulties and class distributions. Extensive evaluations on 30 UEA benchmark datasets and real-world vibration data demonstrate that FreSH consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods in classification accuracy, while substantially reducing model size and efficiency.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Pivot-Centric Trajectory Prediction: Bridging Long Horizons via Dynamical Guidance

Forecasting precise future motion of surrounding agents is essential for reliable autonomous vehicles. However, as the demand for longer prediction horizons increases, existing endpoint-completion or iterative-refine methods increasingly struggle with weak guidance and compounding errors. To tackle the long-horizon prediction challenge, we propose Pivot-Centric Trajectory Prediction (PCTP). By introducing ``pivots'' and focusing on predicting pivot points along extended trajectories, we divide the long-term prediction task into short-term sub-tasks at various scales. Specifically, PCTP decouples the long-term trajectory predicting process into two processes: pivot prediction and pivot-based trajectory refinement. The pivot prediction process aims to utilize global map context and agent-to-agent interactions to identify these ``pivot points'', while the pivot-based trajectory refinement process focuses on local map details and refines the short-term trajectory based on predicted ``pivot points''. Compared with existing methods, PCTP provides more intermediate guidance while reducing compounding errors. Moreover, PCTP is a flexible approach that can be integrated into most state-of-the-art trajectory prediction models. Experimental results show that PCTP improves the prediction accuracy of leading models on both Argoverse I and Argoverse II datasets with minimal impact on model size. Specifically, PCTP combined with QCNet outperforms all published ensemble-free methods on the Argoverse II leaderboard at submission.

cs.RO↗
arXiv2026

TRACE: State-Aware Query Processing over Temporal Evidence Graphs for Conversational Data

Conversational data is increasingly used as a persistent source of user state for long-running assistants and AI agents. However, querying this data remains challenging because conversations naturally evolve: plans are revised, preferences change, and later messages frequently supersede or contradict earlier information. Existing long-memory pipelines largely treat memories as independent text or vector objects. This approach often retrieves semantically similar but stale evidence, offering limited support for state-aware reasoning. To address this problem, we present TRACE, a query processing framework over temporal evidence graphs for evolving conversational data. TRACE models conversations as a hierarchical graph spanning events, sessions, and topics, enriched with typed temporal, causal, update, and contradiction relations. Crucially, the framework maintains validity annotations so obsolete facts remain accessible for historical queries but are discounted for current-state answers. At query time, TRACE combines vector-based note retrieval with graph-guided evidence search, generating validity-aware support paths and a hybrid context for answer generation. This design separates lexical recall from evidence reconstruction, enabling bounded query-time reasoning over long conversational histories. Experiments on long-conversation query-answering (QA) benchmarks show that TRACE improves temporal and multi-hop reasoning, with ablations highlighting the importance of hierarchy, update-aware seeding, and path-grounded evidence.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

TS-Fault: Benchmarking Time Series Forecasters Against Structural Faults

Time series forecasting (TSF) underpins consequential decisions in energy, transportation, finance, and healthcare, yet TSF models are almost universally ranked by a single number (e.g., average error) on clean held-out data, under the implicit assumption that it predicts deployed reliability. However, real faults are not i.i.d noise but structured events with temporal shape, broken cross-variable dependencies, regime change coupled with missingness, and causal propagation across a sensing pipeline. Treating TSF robustness as a data-quality problem, we present TS-Fault, a benchmark that evaluates forecasting models under explicit, parameterized fault scenarios with controllable semantic difficulty. TS-Fault organizes recurring failures into four modes along two orthogonal axes (observation- vs mechanism-level; univariate vs multivariate) and injects each fault into the most prediction-critical window via a unified importance score. This design enables robustness to be tested against the structures models actually rely on, rather than reduced to generic noise sensitivity. We evaluate 21 models across 6 datasets, 4 modes, and 5 difficulty levels under a paired clean/corrupt protocol. The results reveal three findings that contradict common leaderboard intuition: (i) clean-data accuracy anti-correlates with robustness; (ii) clean rankings are preserved under observation-level faults but reshuffled under mechanism-level faults; and (iii) all catastrophic failures occur under mechanism-level faults, with foundation models achieving the highest clean-data accuracy yet exhibiting the greatest fragility. The code is publicly available at https://github.com/Ray-zyy/TS-Fault.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

TiWeaver: Unified Temporal Dynamics Modeling via Contextual Patching

Multivariate time series forecasting plays a critical role in real-world applications, including weather prediction, stock analysis, and health monitoring. Due to the diversity of data sources, time series exhibit diverse temporal dynamics, often accompanied by various irregularities such as missing values and non-uniform sampling frequencies. Such irregularities lead to complex and asynchronous temporal dependencies across channels. Thus, a single model with a fixed patching scheme often fails to adapt well to diverse multivariate time series, hindering accurate forecasting. In this paper, we propose TiWeaver, a unified framework designed to handle temporal dynamics and fine-grained inter-channel dependencies adaptively. Specifically, we introduce a Graph-Guided Adaptive Tokenizer (G$^2$AT) that divides time series into high contextually coherent patches by jointly considering temporal density and representation consistency. In addition, we propose a Fine-grained Asynchronous Dependency Extractor (FADE), which is designed to model fine-grained asynchronous inter-channel dependencies while incorporating long-term historical dependencies. We evaluate TiWeaver on 12 real-world time series datasets, where it achieves state-of-the-art performance, outperforming existing methods up to 25%. These results demonstrate its robustness and effectiveness across diverse domains and data characteristics.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Inductive Subgraphs as Shortcuts: Causal Disentanglement for Heterophilic Graph Learning

Heterophily is a prevalent property of real-world graphs and is well known to impair the performance of homophilic Graph Neural Networks (GNNs). Prior work has attempted to adapt GNNs to heterophilic graphs through non-local neighbor extension or architecture refinement. However, the fundamental reasons behind misclassifications remain poorly understood. In this work, we take a novel perspective by examining recurring inductive subgraphs, empirically and theoretically showing that they act as spurious shortcuts that mislead GNNs and reinforce non-causal correlations in heterophilic graphs. To address this, we adopt a causal inference perspective to analyze and correct the biased learning behavior induced by shortcut inductive subgraphs. We propose a debiased causal graph that explicitly blocks confounding and spillover paths responsible for these shortcuts. Guided by this causal graph, we introduce Causal Disentangled GNN (CD-GNN), a principled framework that disentangles spurious inductive subgraphs from true causal subgraphs by explicitly blocking non-causal paths. By focusing on genuine causal signals, CD-GNN substantially improves the robustness and accuracy of node classification in heterophilic graphs. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets not only validate our theoretical findings but also demonstrate that our proposed CD-GNN outperforms state-of-the-art heterophily-aware baselines.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

ARROW: An Adaptive Rollout and Routing Method for Global Weather Forecasting

Weather forecasting is a fundamental task in spatiotemporal data analysis, with broad applications across a wide range of domains. Existing data-driven forecasting methods typically model atmospheric dynamics over a fixed short time interval, e.g., 6 hours, and rely on naive autoregression-based rollout for long-term forecasting, e.g., 5 days. However, this paradigm suffers from two key limitations: (1) it often inadequately models the spatial and multi-scale temporal dependencies inherent in global weather systems, and (2) the rollout strategy struggles to balance error accumulation with the capture of fine-grained atmospheric variations. In this study, we propose ARROW, an Adaptive-Rollout Multi-scale temporal Routing method for Global Weather Forecasting. To contend with the first limitation, we construct a multi-interval forecasting model that forecasts weather across different time intervals. Within the model, the Shared-Private Mixture-of-Experts captures both shared patterns and specific characteristics of atmospheric dynamics across different time scales, while Ring Positional Encoding accurately encodes the circular latitude structure of the Earth when representing spatial information. For the second limitation, we develop an adaptive rollout scheduler based on reinforcement learning, which selects the most suitable time interval to forecast according to the current weather state. Experimental results demonstrate that ARROW achieves state-of-the-art performance in global weather forecasting, establishing a promising paradigm in this field.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

MM-ISTS: Cooperating Irregularly Sampled Time Series Forecasting with Multimodal Vision-Text LLMs

Irregularly sampled time series (ISTS) are widespread in real-world scenarios, exhibiting asynchronous observations on uneven time intervals across diverse variables. Existing ISTS forecasting methods often solely utilize historical observations to predict future ones while falling short in learning contextual semantics and fine-grained temporal patterns. To address these problems, we propose MM-ISTS, a multimodal ISTS forecasting framework augmented by vision-text large language models, which bridges temporal, visual, and textual modalities. MM-ISTS encompasses a two-stage encoding mechanism. In particular, a Cross-Modal Vision-Text Encoding module is proposed to automatically generate informative visual images and textual data, enabling the capture of intricate temporal patterns and comprehensive contextual understanding, in collaboration with multimodal LLMs (MLLMs). In parallel, ISTS encoding extracts complementary yet enriched temporal features from historical ISTS observations, including multi-view embedding fusion and a Temporal-Variable Encoder. Further, we propose an Adaptive Query-Based Feature Extractor to compress MLLM token embeddings while preserving useful knowledge, which in turn reduces computational costs. In addition, a Multimodal Alignment module with Modality-Aware Gating is designed to alleviate the modality gaps. Extensive experiments on real data offer insight into the effectiveness of the proposed solutions.

cs.CV↗
arXiv2026

FedDis: A Causal Disentanglement Framework for Federated Traffic Prediction

Federated learning offers a promising paradigm for privacy-preserving traffic prediction, yet its performance is often challenged by the non-identically and independently distributed (non-IID) nature of decentralized traffic data. Existing federated methods frequently struggle with this data heterogeneity, typically entangling globally shared patterns with client-specific local dynamics within a single representation. In this work, we postulate that this heterogeneity stems from the entanglement of two distinct generative sources: client-specific localized dynamics and cross-client global spatial-temporal patterns. Motivated by this perspective, we introduce FedDis, a novel framework that, to the best of our knowledge, is the first to leverage causal disentanglement for federated spatial-temporal prediction. Architecturally, FedDis comprises a dual-branch design wherein a Personalized Bank learns to capture client-specific factors, while a Global Pattern Bank distills common knowledge. This separation enables robust cross-client knowledge transfer while preserving high adaptability to unique local environments. Crucially, a mutual information minimization objective is employed to enforce informational orthogonality between the two branches, thereby ensuring effective disentanglement. Comprehensive experiments conducted on four real-world benchmark datasets demonstrate that FedDis consistently achieves state-of-the-art performance, promising efficiency, and superior expandability.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

UrbanMoE: A Sparse Multi-Modal Mixture-of-Experts Framework for Multi-Task Urban Region Profiling

Urban region profiling, the task of characterizing geographical areas, is crucial for urban planning and resource allocation. However, existing research in this domain faces two significant limitations. First, most methods are confined to single-task prediction, failing to capture the interconnected, multi-faceted nature of urban environments where numerous indicators are deeply correlated. Second, the field lacks a standardized experimental benchmark, which severely impedes fair comparison and reproducible progress. To address these challenges, we first establish a comprehensive benchmark for multi-task urban region profiling, featuring multi-modal features and a diverse set of strong baselines to ensure a fair and rigorous evaluation environment. Concurrently, we propose UrbanMoE, the first sparse multi-modal, multi-expert framework specifically architected to solve the multi-task challenge. Leveraging a sparse Mixture-of-Experts architecture, it dynamically routes multi-modal features to specialized sub-networks, enabling the simultaneous prediction of diverse urban indicators. We conduct extensive experiments on three real-world datasets within our benchmark, where UrbanMoE consistently demonstrates superior performance over all baselines. Further in-depth analysis validates the efficacy and efficiency of our approach, setting a new state-of-the-art and providing the community with a valuable tool for future research in urban analytics

cs.ET↗
arXiv2025

Unsupervised Time Series Anomaly Prediction with Importance-based Generative Contrastive Learning

Time series anomaly prediction plays an essential role in many real-world scenarios, such as environmental prevention and prompt maintenance of cyber-physical systems. However, existing time series anomaly prediction methods mainly require supervised training with plenty of manually labeled data, which are difficult to obtain in practice. Besides, unseen anomalies can occur during inference, which could differ from the labeled training data and make these models fail to predict such new anomalies. In this paper, we study a novel problem of unsupervised time series anomaly prediction. We provide a theoretical analysis and propose Importance-based Generative Contrastive Learning (IGCL) to address the aforementioned problems. IGCL distinguishes between normal and anomaly precursors, which are generated by our anomaly precursor pattern generation module. To address the efficiency issues caused by the potential complex anomaly precursor combinations, we propose a memory bank with importance-based scores to adaptively store representative anomaly precursors and generate more complicated anomaly precursors. Extensive experiments on seven benchmark datasets show our method outperforms state-of-the-art baselines on unsupervised time series anomaly prediction problems.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

Task-Aware Retrieval Augmentation for Dynamic Recommendation

Dynamic recommendation systems aim to provide personalized suggestions by modeling temporal user-item interactions across time-series behavioral data. Recent studies have leveraged pre-trained dynamic graph neural networks (GNNs) to learn user-item representations over temporal snapshot graphs. However, fine-tuning GNNs on these graphs often results in generalization issues due to temporal discrepancies between pre-training and fine-tuning stages, limiting the model's ability to capture evolving user preferences. To address this, we propose TarDGR, a task-aware retrieval-augmented framework designed to enhance generalization capability by incorporating task-aware model and retrieval-augmentation. Specifically, TarDGR introduces a Task-Aware Evaluation Mechanism to identify semantically relevant historical subgraphs, enabling the construction of task-specific datasets without manual labeling. It also presents a Graph Transformer-based Task-Aware Model that integrates semantic and structural encodings to assess subgraph relevance. During inference, TarDGR retrieves and fuses task-aware subgraphs with the query subgraph, enriching its representation and mitigating temporal generalization issues. Experiments on multiple large-scale dynamic graph datasets demonstrate that TarDGR consistently outperforms state-of-the-art methods, with extensive empirical evidence underscoring its superior accuracy and generalization capabilities.

cs.IR↗
arXiv2025

TimeEmb: A Lightweight Static-Dynamic Disentanglement Framework for Time Series Forecasting

Temporal non-stationarity, the phenomenon that time series distributions change over time, poses fundamental challenges to reliable time series forecasting. Intuitively, the complex time series can be decomposed into two factors, \ie time-invariant and time-varying components, which indicate static and dynamic patterns, respectively. Nonetheless, existing methods often conflate the time-varying and time-invariant components, and jointly learn the combined long-term patterns and short-term fluctuations, leading to suboptimal performance facing distribution shifts. To address this issue, we initiatively propose a lightweight static-dynamic decomposition framework, TimeEmb, for time series forecasting. TimeEmb innovatively separates time series into two complementary components: (1) time-invariant component, captured by a novel global embedding module that learns persistent representations across time series, and (2) time-varying component, processed by an efficient frequency-domain filtering mechanism inspired by full-spectrum analysis in signal processing. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that TimeEmb outperforms state-of-the-art baselines and requires fewer computational resources. We conduct comprehensive quantitative and qualitative analyses to verify the efficacy of static-dynamic disentanglement. This lightweight framework can also improve existing time-series forecasting methods with simple integration. To ease reproducibility, the code is available at https://github.com/showmeon/TimeEmb.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

STRAP: Spatio-Temporal Pattern Retrieval for Out-of-Distribution Generalization

Spatio-Temporal Graph Neural Networks (STGNNs) have emerged as a powerful tool for modeling dynamic graph-structured data across diverse domains. However, they often fail to generalize in Spatio-Temporal Out-of-Distribution (STOOD) scenarios, where both temporal dynamics and spatial structures evolve beyond the training distribution. To address this problem, we propose an innovative Spatio-Temporal Retrieval-Augmented Pattern Learning framework,STRAP, which enhances model generalization by integrating retrieval-augmented learning into the STGNN continue learning pipeline. The core of STRAP is a compact and expressive pattern library that stores representative spatio-temporal patterns enriched with historical, structural, and semantic information, which is obtained and optimized during the training phase. During inference, STRAP retrieves relevant patterns from this library based on similarity to the current input and injects them into the model via a plug-and-play prompting mechanism. This not only strengthens spatio-temporal representations but also mitigates catastrophic forgetting. Moreover, STRAP introduces a knowledge-balancing objective to harmonize new information with retrieved knowledge. Extensive experiments across multiple real-world streaming graph datasets show that STRAP consistently outperforms state-of-the-art STGNN baselines on STOOD tasks, demonstrating its robustness, adaptability, and strong generalization capability without task-specific fine-tuning.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

Invariant Representation Learning for Source-Free Time Series Forecasting with LLM-Centric Proxy Denoising

Effective time series forecasting enables various real-world applications, benefiting from the proliferation of mobile devices. However, the volume of time series data may vary significantly across domains due to high data acquisition costs and data regulations. To maximally create value from sparse data, this study focuses on a new problem of source-free time series forecasting, aiming to adapt a pretrained model from sufficient source time series to the sparse target time series without access to the source data, enabling data protection. To achieve this, we propose TimeID, a novel source-free time series forecasting framework with a large language model (LLM) centric proxy denoising inspired by the powerful generalization capabilities of LLMs. Specifically, TimeID consists of three key components: (1) dual-branch invariant disentangled feature learning that enforces representation- and gradient-wise invariance by means of season-trend decomposition; (2) lightweight, parameter-free proxy denoising that dynamically calibrates systematic biases of LLMs; and (3) knowledge distillation that bidirectionally aligns the denoised prediction and the original target prediction. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that TimeID outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, improving MSE and MAE by 10.7% and 9.3% on average. The code is available at https://github.com/decisionintelligence/TimeID.

cs.LG↗