arXiv subjects

Haofei Yu

Publications and source records attributed to Haofei Yu.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Can Large Language Models Forecast What Researchers Study Next?

Large language models increasingly generate research ideas, yet judging their novelty or feasibility at generation time does not establish whether they anticipate subsequent work. We introduce IdeaForecastBench to evaluate research idea forecasting. Given a community's literature up to a cutoff, a system produces up to five ranked ideas, which are evaluated against later papers. The benchmark comprises 624 rolling episodes across 52 topics, with a fixed retrieve-then-judge protocol and separately reported results from two judges. We compare five history-compression strategies across GPT-4.1, Qwen2.5-7B/14B, and Qwen3.5-9B, together with a learned Mode-Decomposition Forecaster (MDF). Under the primary GPT-4.1-mini judge, Summary improves on Direct in Hit@5 and Precision@5 across all four backbones. Qwen2.5 scores above GPT-4.1, whereas Qwen3.5 scores below it. An outcome-blind assessment finds that Qwen2.5 produces broader forecasts, but does not identify how much breadth contributes to its advantage. Threshold and judge diagnostics further clarify the limits of interpreting realization as precise anticipation. IdeaForecastBench provides a common task for studying which research ideas a community subsequently pursues and how reliably this outcome can be measured.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

EventConnector: Mining Social Event Relations through Temporal Graphs

Understanding and retrieving related real-world events based on their temporal dynamics is a fundamental challenge in time-sensitive applications such as forecasting, information retrieval, and social analysis. Existing methods often rely on semantic similarity or global time-series alignment, which overlook the transient and directional dependencies that frequently underlie real-world correlations. In this work, we introduce \textit{EventConnector}, a framework that constructs a temporal event graph capturing localized co-fluctuations and lead-lag relationships between events through their time-series trajectories. We further propose \textbf{EC-Fusion}, an adaptive retrieval mechanism that fuses EventConnector's graph-based scores with a complementary Granger-causal signal via a graph-quality-aware mixing weight. Across two real-world prediction market benchmarks (Polymarket and Kalshi) and nine forecasting architectures evaluated over three random seeds, EC-Fusion is the best non-oracle retrieval method on $17/18$ model--dataset cells, reducing RMSE by $6.87\%$ on average (up to $10.86\%$) over the strongest comparable retrieval baseline, with statistical significance at $p < 0.01$ after Holm--Bonferroni correction. These results highlight the effectiveness of temporally grounded graph modeling, augmented with causal-signal fusion, in capturing latent event relationships beyond what semantic similarity or traditional alignment techniques can offer.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2026

Building Social World Models with Large Language Models

Understanding and predicting how social beliefs evolve in response to events -- from policy changes to scientific breakthroughs -- remains a fundamental challenge in social science. Given LLMs' commonsense knowledge and social intelligence, we ask: Can LLMs model the dynamics of social beliefs following social events? In this work, we introduce the concept of the Social World Model (SWM), a general framework designed to capture how social beliefs evolve in response to major events. SWM learns state-transition functions for social beliefs by mining temporal patterns in social data and optimizing the evidence lower bound, without the need for explicit human annotations linking events to belief shifts, or for expensive census data. To evaluate SWM, we introduce a benchmark, SWM-bench, derived from real-world prediction markets, specifically Kalshi and Polymarket. SWM-bench includes over 12k data points for social belief prediction tasks spanning diverse domains such as politics, finance, and cryptocurrency. Our experimental results show that SWM significantly outperforms time-series foundation models, achieving state-of-the-art results on Kalshi data and demonstrating competitive performance on Polymarket data, while offering interpretable insights into the underlying mechanisms of social belief dynamics.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2026

Auto-Dreamer: Learning Offline Memory Consolidation for Language Agents

Language agents increasingly operate over streams of related tasks, yet existing memory systems struggle to convert accumulated experience into reusable knowledge. Retrieval-augmented and structured memory methods record per-session observations effectively, but often couple acquisition and consolidation into a single online process, leaving the agent without a global view across sessions to discover recurring patterns, abstract shared procedures, or prune redundant entries. Inspired by complementary learning systems theory, we propose Auto-Dreamer, a learned offline consolidator for language-agent memory. Auto-Dreamer decouples fast per-session memory acquisition from slow cross-session consolidation. Given a selected working region of a typed memory bank, the consolidator treats the region as read-only evidence, performs bounded tool-use to inspect entries and provenance-linked source trajectories, and synthesizes a fresh compact replacement set that abstracts across sessions and supersedes the original region. We train Auto-Dreamer via GRPO, using end-to-end agent performance as the reward signal to learn how to consolidate memories acquired through fast online experience. Trained on ScienceWorld trajectories alone, Auto-Dreamer outperforms fixed, RL-trained, and prompted memory baselines on ScienceWorld by 7 points while using an active memory bank 12$\times$ smaller than the strongest baseline, and continues to lead on held-out ALFWorld and WebArena without retraining -- using 6$\times$ less memory than the strongest baseline on ALFWorld.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

ArtifactLinker: Linking Scientific Artifacts for Automatic State-of-the-Art Discovery

Scientific artifacts such as models and datasets are foundations for research. With the rapid growth of platforms like HuggingFace, researchers now have access to a large number of artifacts. Yet, a key challenge remains: how can we automatically discover the state-of-the-art (SOTA) model for a given dataset by fully leveraging existing artifacts? We formalize this task as automatic SOTA discovery by modeling HuggingFace as an artifact graph, where nodes are models/datasets and edges represent evaluations. We propose ArtifactLinker, a two-stage framework: (1) ranking promising unobserved model--dataset links using Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) or graph-augmented Large Language Models (LLMs), and (2) verifying top-ranked links via coding experiments with LLM-based agents. We further introduce a benchmark named ArtifactBench with 14,053 artifacts and 51,337 relations to evaluate the performance of both stages. Results show that (1) graph structures between existing artifacts are effective for missing link prediction; (2) end-to-end ranking and verification with ArtifactLinker help discover potential SOTA results and research insights.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

CTM-AI: A Blueprint for General AI Inspired by a Model of Consciousness

Despite remarkable advances, today's AI systems remain narrow in scope, falling short of the flexible, adaptive, and multisensory intelligence that characterizes human capabilities. This gap has fueled longstanding debates about whether AI might one day achieve human-like generality or even consciousness, and whether theories of consciousness can inspire new architectures for AI. This paper presents an early blueprint for implementing a general AI system, CTM-AI, combining the Conscious Turing Machine (CTM), a formal machine model of consciousness, with today's foundation models. CTM-AI contains an enormous number of powerful processors ranging from specialized experts (e.g., vision-language models and APIs) to unspecialized general-purpose learners poised to develop their own expertise. Crucially, for whatever problem must be dealt with, information from many processors is selected, integrated, and exchanged appropriately to solve the task. CTM-AI achieves state-of-the-art accuracy on MUStARD (72.28) and UR-FUNNY (72.13), outperforming multimodal and multi-agent frameworks. On tool-using and agentic tasks, CTM-AI achieves 10+ points of improvement on StableToolBench and WebArena-Lite. Overall, CTM-AI offers a principled, testable blueprint for general AI inspired by a model of consciousness.

q-bio.NC↗

arXiv2026

Learning to Predict Future-Aligned Research Proposals with Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to assist ideation in research, but evaluating the quality of LLM-generated research proposals remains difficult: novelty and soundness are hard to measure automatically, and large-scale human evaluation is costly. We propose a verifiable alternative by reframing proposal generation as a time-sliced scientific forecasting problem. Given a research question and inspiring papers available before a cutoff time, the model generates a structured proposal and is evaluated by whether it anticipates research directions that appear in papers published after the time. We operationalize this objective with the Future Alignment Score (FAS), computed via retrieval and LLM-based semantic scoring against a held-out future corpus. To train models, we build a time-consistent dataset of 21,835 paper occurrences across 3,642 instances from targets and their pre-cutoff citations, and synthesize reasoning traces that teach gap identification and inspiration borrowing. Across Llama-3.1 and Qwen2.5 models, future-aligned tuning improves future alignment over unaligned baselines (up to +10.6% overall FAS), and domain-expert human evaluation corroborates improved proposal quality. Finally, we demonstrate practical impact by implementing two model-generated proposals with a code agent, obtaining 4.17% accuracy gain on MATH from a new prompting strategy and consistent improvements for a novel model-merging method. Our code and data are publicly available at https://github.com/Arthur-Heng/future-aligned-proposals.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

SocialVeil: Probing Social Intelligence of Language Agents under Communication Barriers

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly evaluated in interactive environments to test their social intelligence. However, existing benchmarks often assume idealized communication between agents, limiting our ability to diagnose whether LLMs can maintain and repair interactions in more realistic, imperfect settings. To close this gap, we present \textsc{SocialVeil}, a social learning environment that can simulate social interaction under cognitive-difference-induced communication barriers. Grounded in a systematic literature review of communication challenges in human interaction, \textsc{SocialVeil} introduces three representative types of such disruption, \emph{semantic vagueness}, \emph{sociocultural mismatch}, and \emph{emotional interference}. We also introduce two barrier-aware evaluation metrics, \emph{unresolved confusion} and \emph{mutual understanding}, to evaluate interaction quality under impaired communication. Experiments across 720 scenarios and four frontier LLMs show that barriers consistently impair performance, with mutual understanding reduced by over 45\% on average, and confusion elevated by nearly 50\%. Human evaluations validate the fidelity of these simulated barriers (ICC$\approx$0.78, Pearson r$\approx$0.80). We further demonstrate that adaptation strategies (Repair Instruction and Interactive learning) only have a modest effect far from barrier-free performance. This work takes a step toward bringing social interaction environments closer to real-world communication, opening opportunities for exploring the social intelligence of LLM agents.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Debugging Tabular Log as Dynamic Graphs

Tabular log abstracts objects and events in the real-world system and reports their updates to reflect the change of the system, where one can detect real-world inconsistencies efficiently by debugging corresponding log entries. However, recent advances in processing text-enriched tabular log data overly depend on large language models (LLMs) and other heavy-load models, thus suffering from limited flexibility and scalability. This paper proposes a new framework, GraphLogDebugger, to debug tabular log based on dynamic graphs. By constructing heterogeneous nodes for objects and events and connecting node-wise edges, the framework recovers the system behind the tabular log as an evolving dynamic graph. With the help of our dynamic graph modeling, a simple dynamic Graph Neural Network (GNN) is representative enough to outperform LLMs in debugging tabular log, which is validated by experimental results on real-world log datasets of computer systems and academic papers.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

ResearchArcade: Graph Interface for Academic Tasks

Academic research generates diverse data sources, and as researchers increasingly use machine learning to assist research tasks, a crucial question arises: Can we build a unified data interface to support the development of machine learning models for various academic tasks? Models trained on such a unified interface can better support human researchers throughout the research process, eventually accelerating knowledge discovery. In this work, we introduce ResearchArcade, a graph-based interface that connects multiple academic data sources, unifies task definitions, and supports a wide range of base models to address key academic challenges. ResearchArcade utilizes a coherent multi-table format with graph structures to organize data from different sources, including academic corpora from ArXiv and peer reviews from OpenReview, while capturing information with multiple modalities, such as text, figures, and tables. ResearchArcade also preserves temporal evolution at both the manuscript and community levels, supporting the study of paper revisions as well as broader research trends over time. Additionally, ResearchArcade unifies diverse academic task definitions and supports various models with distinct input requirements. Our experiments across six academic tasks demonstrate that combining cross-source and multi-modal information enables a broader range of tasks, while incorporating graph structures consistently improves performance over baseline methods. This highlights the effectiveness of ResearchArcade and its potential to advance research progress.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

LiveTradeBench: Seeking Real-World Alpha with Large Language Models

Large language models (LLMs) achieve strong performance across benchmarks--from knowledge quizzes and math reasoning to web-agent tasks--but these tests occur in static settings, lacking real dynamics and uncertainty. Consequently, they evaluate isolated reasoning or problem-solving rather than decision-making under uncertainty. To address this, we introduce LiveTradeBench, a live trading environment for evaluating LLM agents in realistic and evolving markets. LiveTradeBench follows three design principles: (i) Live data streaming of market prices and news, eliminating dependence on offline backtesting and preventing information leakage while capturing real-time uncertainty; (ii) a portfolio-management abstraction that extends control from single-asset actions to multi-asset allocation, integrating risk management and cross-asset reasoning; and (iii) multi-market evaluation across structurally distinct environments--U.S. stocks and Polymarket prediction markets--differing in volatility, liquidity, and information flow. At each step, an agent observes prices, news, and its portfolio, then outputs percentage allocations that balance risk and return. Using LiveTradeBench, we run 50-day live evaluations of 21 LLMs across families. Results show that (1) high LMArena scores do not imply superior trading outcomes; (2) models display distinct portfolio styles reflecting risk appetite and reasoning dynamics; and (3) some LLMs effectively leverage live signals to adapt decisions. These findings expose a gap between static evaluation and real-world competence, motivating benchmarks that test sequential decision making and consistency under live uncertainty.

q-fin.TR↗

arXiv2025

Multi-Agent Evolve: LLM Self-Improve through Co-evolution

Reinforcement Learning (RL) has demonstrated significant potential in enhancing the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). However, the success of RL for LLMs heavily relies on human-curated datasets and verifiable rewards, which limit their scalability and generality. Recent Self-Play RL methods, inspired by the success of the paradigm in games and Go, aim to enhance LLM reasoning capabilities without human-annotated data. However, their methods primarily depend on a grounded environment for feedback (e.g., a Python interpreter or a game engine); extending them to general domains remains challenging. To address these challenges, we propose Multi-Agent Evolve (MAE), a framework that enables LLMs to self-evolve in solving diverse tasks, including mathematics, reasoning, and general knowledge Q&A. The core design of MAE is based on a triplet of interacting agents (Proposer, Solver, Judge) that are instantiated from a single LLM, and applies reinforcement learning to optimize their behaviors. The Proposer generates questions, the Solver attempts solutions, and the Judge evaluates both while co-evolving. Experiments on Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct demonstrate that MAE achieves an average improvement of 4.54% on multiple benchmarks. These results highlight MAE as a scalable, data-efficient method for enhancing the general reasoning abilities of LLMs with minimal reliance on human-curated supervision.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

TinyScientist: An Interactive, Extensible, and Controllable Framework for Building Research Agents

Automatic research with Large Language Models (LLMs) is rapidly gaining importance, driving the development of increasingly complex workflows involving multi-agent systems, planning, tool usage, code execution, and human-agent interaction to accelerate research processes. However, as more researchers and developers begin to use and build upon these tools and platforms, the complexity and difficulty of extending and maintaining such agentic workflows have become a significant challenge, particularly as algorithms and architectures continue to advance. To address this growing complexity, TinyScientist identifies the essential components of the automatic research workflow and proposes an interactive, extensible, and controllable framework that easily adapts to new tools and supports iterative growth. We provide an open-source codebase, an interactive web demonstration, and a PyPI Python package to make state-of-the-art auto-research pipelines broadly accessible to every researcher and developer.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

The Ramon Llull's Thinking Machine for Automated Ideation

This paper revisits Ramon Llull's Ars combinatoria - a medieval framework for generating knowledge through symbolic recombination - as a conceptual foundation for building a modern Llull's thinking machine for research ideation. Our approach defines three compositional axes: Theme (e.g., efficiency, adaptivity), Domain (e.g., question answering, machine translation), and Method (e.g., adversarial training, linear attention). These elements represent high-level abstractions common in scientific work - motivations, problem settings, and technical approaches - and serve as building blocks for LLM-driven exploration. We mine elements from human experts or conference papers and show that prompting LLMs with curated combinations produces research ideas that are diverse, relevant, and grounded in current literature. This modern thinking machine offers a lightweight, interpretable tool for augmenting scientific creativity and suggests a path toward collaborative ideation between humans and AI.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Sotopia-RL: Reward Design for Social Intelligence

Social intelligence has become a critical capability for large language models (LLMs), enabling them to engage effectively in real-world social tasks such as collaboration and negotiation. Reinforcement learning (RL) is a natural fit for training socially intelligent agents because it allows models to learn sophisticated strategies directly through social interactions without requiring human annotations. However, there are two unique parts about social intelligence tasks: (1) the quality of individual utterances in social interactions is not strictly related to final success; (2) social interactions require multi-dimensional rubrics for success. Therefore, we argue that it is necessary to design rewards for building utterance-level multi-dimensional reward models to facilitate RL training for social intelligence tasks. To address these challenges, we propose Sotopia-RL, a novel framework that refines coarse episode-level feedback into utterance-level, multi-dimensional rewards. Utterance-level credit assignment attributes outcomes to individual utterances, while multi-dimensional rewards capture the full richness of social interactions and reduce reward hacking. Experiments in Sotopia, an open-ended social learning environment, demonstrate that Sotopia-RL achieves state-of-the-art social goal completion scores (7.17 on Sotopia-hard and 8.31 on Sotopia-full), significantly outperforming existing approaches. Ablation studies confirm the necessity of both utterance-level credit assignment and multi-dimensional reward design for RL training.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

ConsistencyChecker: Tree-based Evaluation of LLM Generalization Capabilities

Evaluating consistency in large language models (LLMs) is crucial for ensuring reliability, particularly in complex, multi-step interactions between humans and LLMs. Traditional self-consistency methods often miss subtle semantic changes in natural language and functional shifts in code or equations, which can accumulate over multiple transformations. To address this, we propose ConsistencyChecker, a tree-based evaluation framework designed to measure consistency through sequences of reversible transformations, including machine translation tasks and AI-assisted programming tasks. In our framework, nodes represent distinct text states, while edges correspond to pairs of inverse operations. Dynamic and LLM-generated benchmarks ensure a fair assessment of the model's generalization ability and eliminate benchmark leakage. Consistency is quantified based on similarity across different depths of the transformation tree. Experiments on eight models from various families and sizes show that ConsistencyChecker can distinguish the performance of different models. Notably, our consistency scores-computed entirely without using WMT paired data-correlate strongly (r > 0.7) with WMT 2024 auto-ranking, demonstrating the validity of our benchmark-free approach. Our implementation is available at: https://github.com/ulab-uiuc/consistencychecker.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Beyond Facts: Evaluating Intent Hallucination in Large Language Models

When exposed to complex queries containing multiple conditions, today's large language models (LLMs) tend to produce responses that only partially satisfy the query while neglecting certain conditions. We therefore introduce the concept of Intent Hallucination. In this phenomenon, LLMs either omit (neglecting to address certain parts) or misinterpret (responding to invented query parts) elements of the given query, leading to intent hallucinated generation. To systematically evaluate intent hallucination, we introduce FAITHQA, a novel benchmark for intent hallucination that contains 20,068 problems, covering both query-only and retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) setups with varying topics and difficulty. FAITHQA is the first hallucination benchmark that goes beyond factual verification, tailored to identify the fundamental cause of intent hallucination. By evaluating various LLMs on FAITHQA, we find that (1) intent hallucination is a common issue even for state-of-the-art models, and (2) the phenomenon stems from omission or misinterpretation of LLMs. To facilitate future research, we introduce an automatic LLM generation evaluation metric, CONSTRAINT SCORE, for detecting intent hallucination. Human evaluation results demonstrate that CONSTRAINT SCORE is closer to human performance for intent hallucination compared to baselines.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

MINT: Multimodal Instruction Tuning with Multimodal Interaction Grouping

Recent advances in multimodal foundation models have achieved state-of-the-art performance across a range of tasks. These breakthroughs are largely driven by new pre-training paradigms that leverage large-scale, unlabeled multimodal data, followed by instruction fine-tuning on curated labeled datasets and high-quality prompts. While there is growing interest in scaling instruction fine-tuning to ever-larger datasets in both quantity and scale, our findings reveal that simply increasing the number of instruction-tuning tasks does not consistently yield better performance. Instead, we observe that grouping tasks by the common interactions across modalities, such as discovering redundant shared information, prioritizing modality selection with unique information, or requiring synergistic fusion to discover new information from both modalities, encourages the models to learn transferrable skills within a group while suppressing interference from mismatched tasks. To this end, we introduce MINT, a simple yet surprisingly effective task-grouping strategy based on the type of multimodal interaction. We demonstrate that the proposed method greatly outperforms existing task grouping baselines for multimodal instruction tuning, striking an effective balance between generalization and specialization.

cs.LG↗