Haoqi Qian | Searcharxiv

arXiv2023

Inferring Economic Condition Uncertainty from Electricity Big Data

Inferring the uncertainty in economic conditions is significant for both decision makers as well as market players. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to measure the economic uncertainties by using the Hidden Markov Model (HMM). We construct a dimensionless index, Economic Condition Uncertainty (ECU) index, which ranges from zero to one and is comparable among sectors, regions and periods. We used the daily electricity consumption data of more than 18,000 firms in Shanghai from 2018 to 2020 to construct the ECU indexes. Results show that all ECU indexes, whether at sectoral or regional level, successfully captured the negative impacts of COVID-19 on Shanghai's economic conditions. Besides, the ECU indexes also presented the heterogeneities in different districts as well as in different sectors. This reflects the facts that changes in the uncertainty of economic conditions are mainly related to regional economic structures and targeted regulatory policies faced by sectors. The ECU index can also be readily extended to measure the uncertainty of economic conditions in various realms, which has great potentials in the future.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2020

Mercury-related health benefits from retrofitting coal-fired power plants in China

China has implemented retrofitting measures in coal-fired power plants (CFPPs) to reduce air pollution through small unit shutdown (SUS), the installation of air pollution control devices (APCDs) and power generation efficiency (PGE) improvement. The reductions in highly toxic Hg emissions and their related health impacts by these measures have not been well studied. To refine mitigation options, we evaluated the health benefits of reduced Hg emissions via retrofitting measures during China's 12th Five-Year Plan by combining plant-level Hg emission inventories with the China Hg Risk Source-Tracking Model. We found that the measures reduced Hg emissions by 23.5 tons (approximately 1/5 of that from CFPPs in 2010), preventing 0.0021 points of per-foetus intelligence quotient (IQ) decrements and 114 deaths from fatal heart attacks. These benefits were dominated by CFPP shutdowns and APCD installations. Provincial health benefits were largely attributable to Hg reductions in other regions. We also demonstrated the necessity of considering human health impacts, rather than just Hg emission reductions, in selecting Hg control devices. This study also suggests that Hg control strategies should consider various factors, such as CFPP locations, population densities and trade-offs between reductions of total Hg (THg) and Hg2+.

econ.GN↗