arXiv subjects

Haoxin Liu

Publications and source records attributed to Haoxin Liu.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

TSFLab: A Self-Improving Agent-Agnostic Workbench for Time Series Forecasting Research

As publications and products on time series forecasting (TSF) proliferate, researchers face a growing burden of analyzing existing work. First, not all publications release code. For instance, only about 20% of arXiv TSF papers have a code link in the surveyed period. Second, released code also requires manual maintenance. Thus, TSF researchers must constantly adapt or implement existing works. However, independent implementations can differ in experimental settings and are difficult to maintain. We therefore propose to use AI agents for benchmarking TSF research and even supporting autoresearch, e.g., developing new TSF models. Yet directly applying existing coding agents, such as Claude Code and Codex, is suboptimal: prohibitive costs, limited scalability to large research projects (e.g., benchmarking), and lack of self-maintenance. To address these challenges, we propose TSFLab, a self-improving agent-agnostic "workbench" that equips compatible coding agents with shared resources and tools for low-cost TSF research and continuous maintenance of research resources. Our experiments cover reproduction, benchmarking, and new method development. In reproduction and benchmarking, TSFLab improves task completion by 20-163% and cuts fresh tokens per completed task by 11-66% across baselines. A pilot study of agent-driven method development also shows improved forecasting accuracy via TSFLab, with 32.8-73.6% fewer fresh tokens and 9.2-68.8% less development time than the other settings.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

TimeRSI: Towards Self-Improved Agentic Deployment for Time-Series Foundation Models

Time-series foundation models provide strong zero-shot forecast, but deployment for real-world applications still requires task-specific designs for model inputs and outputs. Direct inference can leave domain knowledge and recurring forecast errors unaddressed, while tailored pipelines require substantial human expertise and effort. We introduce TimeRSI, a self-improving agentic deployment system around frozen forecasting models. A coding agent translates task descriptions into executable pipeline changes. It tests each revision on historical forecasting windows and uses observed errors to guide subsequent revisions. During deployment, an adaptive selector chooses among the resulting pipelines using completed forecasts under similar conditions. Across 198 tasks on TIME and fev-bench, TimeRSI outperforms all submissions on six point and probabilistic forecasting metrics. Controlled comparisons support the value of feedback-guided revision over non-iterative pipeline search. Further experiments verify the generalization with different coding agents and forecasting models. Code is available at https://github.com/haoxin1998/TimeRSI.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

From Knowledge Access to Source Learning: Developing Source-Specific Competence

Large language model (LLM) agents increasingly rely on persistent external sources to solve sequences of knowledge-intensive tasks. Existing methods improve how source content is accessed and organized, while agent-memory systems preserve reusable knowledge from prior interactions, but repeated use of the same source is still largely treated as repeated access rather than an opportunity to progressively improve understanding of that source. We study source learning: developing reusable source-specific competence over a persistent authoritative source. We represent this competence with a persistent source model that captures reusable understanding of the source, including how its knowledge is structured, interpreted, and applied. To construct and progressively refine such models, we propose SourceLearn, which combines two complementary learning mechanisms. Self-Directed Source Learning identifies what remains incompletely understood and adaptively revisits the source, while Task-Guided Source Learning uses downstream experience to reveal local representational gaps and recurring needs in how source knowledge should be organized. In both cases, learning signals determine what should be reconsidered, while persistent updates are reconstructed from the authoritative source. Across five benchmarks and three LLM backends, SourceLearn achieves the best performance in 13 of 15 settings, with gains of up to 22.6 points over Hybrid RAG and substantial overall improvements over static source representations and experience-based memory baselines.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Rethinking Multimodal Time-Series Forecasting Evaluation

We introduce a new context-enriched, multimodal time series forecasting benchmark, TimesX. TimesX contains a wide selection of high-quality real-world time series with diverse domains and textual contexts obtained from an automated data generation pipeline, which helps address three main issues of existing multimodal forecasting benchmarks: (1) poor generalization due to the small scale and synthetic nature of benchmark data, (2) very limited types of textual contexts in the benchmarks, and (3) an inability to mitigate data leakage in evaluation. We conduct a thorough empirical study of zero-shot multimodal forecasting approaches on TimesX. Our results suggest that many approaches that perform well on existing benchmarks may fail on TimesX. In contrast, simple ensemble methods that leverage rich textual context accompanying time-series can outperform strong baselines on TimesX.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Fairness-Aware and Latency-Controllable Scheduling for Chunked-Prefill LLM Serving

As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed with highly heterogeneous workloads, chunked-prefill execution has emerged as a mainstream serving architecture. Balancing scheduling fairness and latency stability in such environments is critical; otherwise, severe head-of-line blocking and request starvation will degrade user experience. However, existing systems rely on rigid First-Come, First-Served (FCFS) policies and static token budgets, leading to fairness degradation and unpredictable latency jitter. To address these issues, we propose a fairness-aware and latency-controllable scheduling framework for chunked-prefill LLM engines. Specifically, we design a lightweight aging-based scheduling policy that dynamically calculates priorities using accumulated waiting time and remaining prefill work. Furthermore, we develop Latency-Prediction-Based Request Scheduling (LPRS) and Active Prefill Control (APC) to replace static budgets with target-time constraints and actively regulate prefill concurrency. We evaluated our scheduling framework on NVIDIA GPUs and Ascend accelerators using real-world workloads. Results show the aging policy reduces mean end-to-end latency by over 10\% compared to FCFS. Moreover, LPRS and APC significantly reduce P99 tail latency and suppress prefill fragmentation, confirming that the structural prefill control and the temporal latency constraints are fundamentally complementary. All codes have been released in Github.

cs.DC↗

arXiv2026

Rethinking Post-Training Recipes for Multimodal Time-Series Forecasting

Time-Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) excel at zero-shot unimodal forecasting using numerical data, but unlike LLMs they cannot consume multimodal, non-numerical context that often shape real-world trajectories. In this work, we bridge this gap and argue for a multimodal time-series forecasting approach that post-trains LLMs to act as context-guided revisors over strong numerical TSFM priors. We introduce PostTime, a post-training recipe combining Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) and Reinforcement Learning with Verifiable Rewards (RLVR), along with a methodology to generate automated reasoning traces for forecast revisions. PostTime teaches an LLM to generate context-conditioned forecast interventions -- decisions to revise, preserve, or ignore the TSFM prior based on the multimodal context. We evaluate this approach on the TimesX multimodal forecasting benchmark using a Gemma-3-4B LLM and TimesFM-2.5 TSFM, and show that it significantly outperforms standalone TSFMs, LLM-only baselines, and existing multimodal forecasting approaches.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

UniSD: Towards a Unified Self-Distillation Framework for Large Language Models

Self-distillation (SD) offers a promising path for adapting large language models (LLMs) without relying on stronger external teachers. However, SD in autoregressive LLMs remains challenging because self-generated trajectories are free-form, correctness is task-dependent, and plausible rationales can still provide unstable or unreliable supervision. Existing methods mainly examine isolated design choices, leaving their effectiveness, roles, and interactions unclear. In this paper, we propose UniSD, a unified framework to systematically study self-distillation. UniSD integrates complementary mechanisms that address supervision reliability, representation alignment, and training stability, including multi-teacher agreement, EMA teacher stabilization, token-level contrastive learning, feature matching, and divergence clipping. Across six benchmarks and six models from three model families, UniSD reveals when self-distillation improves over static imitation, which components drive the gains, and how these components interact across tasks. Guided by these insights, we construct UniSDfull, an integrated pipeline that combines complementary components and achieves the strongest overall performance, improving over the base model by +5.4 points and the strongest baseline by +2.8 points. Extensive evaluation highlights self-distillation as a practical and steerable approach for efficient LLM adaptation without stronger external teachers.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

TimeRecipe: A Time-Series Forecasting Recipe via Benchmarking Module Level Effectiveness

Time-series forecasting is an essential task with wide real-world applications across domains. While recent advances in deep learning have enabled time-series forecasting models with accurate predictions, there remains considerable debate over which architectures and design components, such as series decomposition or normalization, are most effective under varying conditions. Existing benchmarks primarily evaluate models at a high level, offering limited insight into why certain designs work better. To mitigate this gap, we propose TimeRecipe, a unified benchmarking framework that systematically evaluates time-series forecasting methods at the module level. TimeRecipe conducts over 10,000 experiments to assess the effectiveness of individual components across a diverse range of datasets, forecasting horizons, and task settings. Our results reveal that exhaustive exploration of the design space can yield models that outperform existing state-of-the-art methods and uncover meaningful intuitions linking specific design choices to forecasting scenarios. Furthermore, we release a practical toolkit within TimeRecipe that recommends suitable model architectures based on these empirical insights. The benchmark is available at: https://github.com/AdityaLab/TimeRecipe.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Tackling Time-Series Forecasting Generalization via Mitigating Concept Drift

Time-series forecasting finds broad applications in real-world scenarios. Due to the dynamic nature of time series data, it is important for time-series forecasting models to handle potential distribution shifts over time. In this paper, we initially identify two types of distribution shifts in time series: concept drift and temporal shift. We acknowledge that while existing studies primarily focus on addressing temporal shift issues in time series forecasting, designing proper concept drift methods for time series forecasting has received comparatively less attention. Motivated by the need to address potential concept drift, while conventional concept drift methods via invariant learning face certain challenges in time-series forecasting, we propose a soft attention mechanism that finds invariant patterns from both lookback and horizon time series. Additionally, we emphasize the critical importance of mitigating temporal shifts as a preliminary to addressing concept drift. In this context, we introduce ShifTS, a method-agnostic framework designed to tackle temporal shift first and then concept drift within a unified approach. Extensive experiments demonstrate the efficacy of ShifTS in consistently enhancing the forecasting accuracy of agnostic models across multiple datasets, and outperforming existing concept drift, temporal shift, and combined baselines.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Seeking Universal Shot Language Understanding Solutions

Shot language understanding (SLU) is crucial for cinematic analysis but remains challenging due to its diverse cinematographic dimensions and subjective expert judgment. While vision-language models (VLMs) have shown strong ability in general visual understanding, recent studies reveal judgment discrepancies between VLMs and film experts on SLU tasks. To address this gap, we introduce SLU-SUITE, a comprehensive training and evaluation suite containing 490K human-annotated QA pairs across 33 tasks spanning six film-grounded dimensions. Using SLU-SUITE, we originally observe two insights into VLM-based SLU from: the model side, which diagnoses key bottlenecks of modules; the data side, which quantifies cross-dimensional influences among tasks. These findings motivate our universal SLU solutions from two complementary paradigms: UniShot, a balanced one-for-all generalist trained via dynamic-balanced data mixing, and AgentShots, a prompt-routed expert cluster that maximizes peak dimension performance. Extensive experiments show that our models outperform task-specific ensembles on in-domain tasks and surpass leading commercial VLMs by 22% on out-of-domain tasks.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

In-context Pre-trained Time-Series Foundation Models adapt to Unseen Tasks

Time-series foundation models (TSFMs) have demonstrated strong generalization capabilities across diverse datasets and tasks. However, existing foundation models are typically pre-trained to enhance performance on specific tasks and often struggle to generalize to unseen tasks without fine-tuning. To address this limitation, we propose augmenting TSFMs with In-Context Learning (ICL) capabilities, enabling them to perform test-time inference by dynamically adapting to input-output relationships provided within the context. Our framework, In-Context Time-series Pre-training (ICTP), restructures the original pre-training data to equip the backbone TSFM with ICL capabilities, enabling adaptation to unseen tasks. Experiments demonstrate that ICT improves the performance of state-of-the-art TSFMs by approximately 11.4% on unseen tasks without requiring fine-tuning.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

FutureX-Pro: Extending Future Prediction to High-Value Vertical Domains

Building upon FutureX, which established a live benchmark for general-purpose future prediction, this report introduces FutureX-Pro, including FutureX-Finance, FutureX-Retail, FutureX-PublicHealth, FutureX-NaturalDisaster, and FutureX-Search. These together form a specialized framework extending agentic future prediction to high-value vertical domains. While generalist agents demonstrate proficiency in open-domain search, their reliability in capital-intensive and safety-critical sectors remains under-explored. FutureX-Pro targets four economically and socially pivotal verticals: Finance, Retail, Public Health, and Natural Disaster. We benchmark agentic Large Language Models (LLMs) on entry-level yet foundational prediction tasks -- ranging from forecasting market indicators and supply chain demands to tracking epidemic trends and natural disasters. By adapting the contamination-free, live-evaluation pipeline of FutureX, we assess whether current State-of-the-Art (SOTA) agentic LLMs possess the domain grounding necessary for industrial deployment. Our findings reveal the performance gap between generalist reasoning and the precision required for high-value vertical applications.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Beyond Magic Words: Sharpness-Aware Prompt Evolving for Robust Large Language Models with TARE

The performance of Large Language Models (LLMs) hinges on carefully engineered prompts. However, prevailing prompt optimization methods, ranging from heuristic edits and reinforcement learning to evolutionary search, primarily target point-wise accuracy. They seldom enforce paraphrase invariance or searching stability, and therefore cannot remedy this brittleness in practice. Automated prompt search remains brittle: small, semantically preserving paraphrases often cause large performance swings. We identify this brittleness as the textual sharpness of the prompt landscape. In this work, we provide the first formal treatment of textual sharpness in the discrete, semantic space of prompts, together with an operational robustness criterion over a semantic neighborhood; the design is black-box or API-only, requiring no gradients to update the model's parameters. Then we introduce TARE (Textual Sharpness-Aware Evolving), a derivative-free framework that alternates between an inner, sampling-based adversarial search that stresses a prompt with hard paraphrases and an outer, robust selection that prefers candidates whose neighborhoods remain strong. We further propose ATARE, which learns anisotropic weights to shape the semantic neighborhood and adapts its radius over time to balance exploration and fidelity. Diverse tasks evaluate our methods, whose design for minimizing textual sharpness gap leads to prompts that preserve accuracy under paraphrasing, outperforming accuracy-only prompt search while remaining computationally practical.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Collaborative Management for Chronic Diseases and Depression: A Double Heterogeneity-based Multi-Task Learning Method

Wearable sensor technologies and deep learning are transforming healthcare management. Yet, most health sensing studies focus narrowly on physical chronic diseases. This overlooks the critical need for joint assessment of comorbid physical chronic diseases and depression, which is essential for collaborative chronic care. We conceptualize multi-disease assessment, including both physical diseases and depression, as a multi-task learning (MTL) problem, where each disease assessment is modeled as a task. This joint formulation leverages inter-disease relationships to improve accuracy, but it also introduces the challenge of double heterogeneity: chronic diseases differ in their manifestation (disease heterogeneity), and patients with the same disease show varied patterns (patient heterogeneity). To address these issues, we first adopt existing techniques and propose a base method. Given the limitations of the base method, we further propose an Advanced Double Heterogeneity-based Multi-Task Learning (ADH-MTL) method that improves the base method through three innovations: (1) group-level modeling to support new patient predictions, (2) a decomposition strategy to reduce model complexity, and (3) a Bayesian network that explicitly captures dependencies while balancing similarities and differences across model components. Empirical evaluations on real-world wearable sensor data demonstrate that ADH-MTL significantly outperforms existing baselines, and each of its innovations is shown to be effective. This study contributes to health information systems by offering a computational solution for integrated physical and mental healthcare and provides design principles for advancing collaborative chronic disease management across the pre-treatment, treatment, and post-treatment phases.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

How Can Time Series Analysis Benefit From Multiple Modalities? A Survey and Outlook

Time series analysis (TSA) is a longstanding research topic in the data mining community and has wide real-world significance. Compared to "richer" modalities such as language and vision, which have recently experienced explosive development and are densely connected, the time-series modality remains relatively underexplored and isolated. We notice that many recent TSA works have formed a new research field, i.e., Multiple Modalities for TSA (MM4TSA). In general, these MM4TSA works follow a common motivation: how TSA can benefit from multiple modalities. This survey is the first to offer a comprehensive review and a detailed outlook for this emerging field. Specifically, we systematically discuss three benefits: (1) reusing foundation models of other modalities for efficient TSA, (2) multimodal extension for enhanced TSA, and (3) cross-modality interaction for advanced TSA. We further group the works by the introduced modality type, including text, images, audio, tables, and others, within each perspective. Finally, we identify the gaps with future opportunities, including the reused modalities selections, heterogeneous modality combinations, and unseen tasks generalizations, corresponding to the three benefits. We release an up-to-date GitHub repository that includes key papers and resources.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Performative Time-Series Forecasting

Time-series forecasting is a critical challenge in various domains and has witnessed substantial progress in recent years. Many real-life scenarios, such as public health, economics, and social applications, involve feedback loops where predictions can influence the predicted outcome, subsequently altering the target variable's distribution. This phenomenon, known as performativity, introduces the potential for 'self-negating' or 'self-fulfilling' predictions. Despite extensive studies in classification problems across domains, performativity remains largely unexplored in the context of time-series forecasting from a machine-learning perspective. In this paper, we formalize performative time-series forecasting (PeTS), addressing the challenge of accurate predictions when performativity-induced distribution shifts are possible. We propose a novel approach, Feature Performative-Shifting (FPS), which leverages the concept of delayed response to anticipate distribution shifts and subsequently predicts targets accordingly. We provide theoretical insights suggesting that FPS can potentially lead to reduced generalization error. We conduct comprehensive experiments using multiple time-series models on COVID-19 and traffic forecasting tasks. The results demonstrate that FPS consistently outperforms conventional time-series forecasting methods, highlighting its efficacy in handling performativity-induced challenges.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

A Picture is Worth A Thousand Numbers: Enabling LLMs Reason about Time Series via Visualization

Large language models (LLMs), with demonstrated reasoning abilities across multiple domains, are largely underexplored for time-series reasoning (TsR), which is ubiquitous in the real world. In this work, we propose TimerBed, the first comprehensive testbed for evaluating LLMs' TsR performance. Specifically, TimerBed includes stratified reasoning patterns with real-world tasks, comprehensive combinations of LLMs and reasoning strategies, and various supervised models as comparison anchors. We perform extensive experiments with TimerBed, test multiple current beliefs, and verify the initial failures of LLMs in TsR, evidenced by the ineffectiveness of zero shot (ZST) and performance degradation of few shot in-context learning (ICL). Further, we identify one possible root cause: the numerical modeling of data. To address this, we propose a prompt-based solution VL-Time, using visualization-modeled data and language-guided reasoning. Experimental results demonstrate that Vl-Time enables multimodal LLMs to be non-trivial ZST and powerful ICL reasoners for time series, achieving about 140% average performance improvement and 99% average token costs reduction.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Few-Shot Learning for Mental Disorder Detection: A Continuous Multi-Prompt Engineering Approach with Medical Knowledge Injection

This study harnesses state-of-the-art AI technology for detecting mental disorders through user-generated textual content. Existing studies typically rely on fully supervised machine learning, which presents challenges such as the labor-intensive manual process of annotating extensive training data for each research problem and the need to design specialized deep learning architectures for each task. We propose a novel method to address these challenges by leveraging large language models and continuous multi-prompt engineering, which offers two key advantages: (1) developing personalized prompts that capture each user's unique characteristics and (2) integrating structured medical knowledge into prompts to provide context for disease detection and facilitate predictive modeling. We evaluate our method using three widely prevalent mental disorders as research cases. Our method significantly outperforms existing methods, including feature engineering, architecture engineering, and discrete prompt engineering. Meanwhile, our approach demonstrates success in few-shot learning, i.e., requiring only a minimal number of training examples. Moreover, our method can be generalized to other rare mental disorder detection tasks with few positive labels. In addition to its technical contributions, our method has the potential to enhance the well-being of individuals with mental disorders and offer a cost-effective, accessible alternative for stakeholders beyond traditional mental disorder screening methods.

cs.CL↗