arXiv subjects

Haoyu Pei

Publications and source records attributed to Haoyu Pei.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Beyond Isolated Investor: Predicting Startup Success via Roleplay-Based Collective Agents

Due to the high value and high failure rates of startups, predicting their success is a critical challenge. Existing approaches typically model startup success from a single decision-maker's perspective, overlooking the collective dynamics that dominate real-world venture capital (VC) decision-making. We propose SimVC-CAS, a collective agent system that simulates VC decisions as a multi-agent interaction process. By designing role-playing agents and a GNN-based supervised interaction module, we reformulate startup financing prediction as a group decision-making task, capturing both enterprise fundamentals and investor network dynamics. Each agent represents an investor with distinct traits and preferences, enabling heterogeneous evaluations and realistic information exchange over a graph-structured co-investment network. Using both proprietary and public VC data with strict anti-leakage controls, we show that SimVC-CAS significantly improves predictive performance, achieving approximately 25% relative improvement in average precision@10, while exhibiting consistency with real investor decisions. The interaction mechanism is particularly effective for network-central startups, confirming the importance of network in VC decision-making. Analysis of agents' reasoning for decision changes further reveals how network environment influence decision quality, demonstrating the system's interpretability. Our approach may generalize to broader group decision-making scenarios.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

The Gaining Paths to Investment Success: Information-Driven LLM Graph Reasoning for Venture Capital Prediction

Most venture capital (VC) investments fail, while a few deliver outsized returns. Accurately predicting startup success requires synthesizing complex relational evidence, including company disclosures, investor track records, and investment network structures, through explicit reasoning to form coherent, interpretable investment theses. Traditional machine learning and graph neural networks both lack this reasoning capability. Large language models (LLMs) offer strong reasoning but face a modality mismatch with graphs. Recent graph-LLM methods target in-graph tasks where answers lie within the graph, whereas VC prediction is off-graph: the target exists outside the network. The core challenge is selecting graph paths that maximize predictor performance on an external objective while enabling step-by-step reasoning. We present MIRAGE-VC, a multi-perspective retrieval-augmented generation framework that addresses two obstacles: path explosion (thousands of candidate paths overwhelm LLM context) and heterogeneous evidence fusion (different startups need different analytical emphasis). Our information-gain-driven path retriever iteratively selects high-value neighbors, distilling investment networks into compact chains for explicit reasoning. A multi-agent architecture integrates three evidence streams via a learnable gating mechanism based on company attributes. Under strict anti-leakage controls, MIRAGE-VC achieves +5.0% F1 and +16.6% PrecisionAt5, and sheds light on other off-graph prediction tasks such as recommendation and risk assessment. Code: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/MIRAGE-VC-323F.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2025

Picturized and Recited with Dialects: A Multimodal Chinese Representation Framework for Sentiment Analysis of Classical Chinese Poetry

Classical Chinese poetry is a vital and enduring part of Chinese literature, conveying profound emotional resonance. Existing studies analyze sentiment based on textual meanings, overlooking the unique rhythmic and visual features inherent in poetry,especially since it is often recited and accompanied by Chinese paintings. In this work, we propose a dialect-enhanced multimodal framework for classical Chinese poetry sentiment analysis. We extract sentence-level audio features from the poetry and incorporate audio from multiple dialects,which may retain regional ancient Chinese phonetic features, enriching the phonetic representation. Additionally, we generate sentence-level visual features, and the multimodal features are fused with textual features enhanced by LLM translation through multimodal contrastive representation learning. Our framework outperforms state-of-the-art methods on two public datasets, achieving at least 2.51% improvement in accuracy and 1.63% in macro F1. We open-source the code to facilitate research in this area and provide insights for general multimodal Chinese representation.

cs.CL↗