arXiv subjects

Haoyu Wei

Publications and source records attributed to Haoyu Wei.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Estimating Pathway Treatment Effects in the Presence of Intermediate Events with Multi-State Data

During clinical trials evaluating a drug's effect on a survival endpoint, intermediate events often occur in addition to the primary event. The treatment can exert its effect on the primary endpoint along multiple pathways through intermediate events. Assumptions for identifying mediation effects, such as sequential ignorability in natural effects or the dismissible components condition in separable effects, fail because intermediate events act as treatment-induced confounding. To understand the effect along each pathway, we consider hypothetical interventions in transitions between event statuses to mimic the treatment mechanism. The hypothetical interventions adjust for effects through intermediate events and marginalize over unobserved treatment-induced confounding, if any. Based on the derived efficient influence functions for the counterfactual cumulative incidences under hypothetical interventions, we construct multiply robust and semiparametrically efficient estimators for pathway treatment effects. Our proposed framework enables the examination of treatment effects through each transition, on each event, and along each path. By analyzing data from the LEADER Trial, we find that liraglutide significantly reduces the risk of cardiovascular and microvascular events. The reduction in all-cause mortality is primarily mediated by its effects on expanded major adverse cardiovascular events.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Difference-in-differences with a mediator

Causal mediation analysis is a powerful tool for disentangling the total effect of a treatment into its direct effect on the outcome and its indirect effect mediated through an intermediate variable. However, in observational studies, confounding between treatment and potential outcomes typically renders the total and natural effects non-identifiable. In this work, we advance mediation analysis within the difference-in-differences framework. Under a mediator-adjusted parallel trends assumption and additional conditions, we demonstrate that natural indirect, direct, and total effects are identifiable in the treated group. We further derive efficient influence functions for these estimands, enabling the construction of multiply robust and nonparametrically efficient estimators. We establish the asymptotic properties of these estimators. Applying our methodology to data from the Job Corps Study, we find that job training significantly increases both short-term and long-term earnings, after controlling for the indirect effect through the proportion of weeks employed.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2026

CMP: Robust Whole-Body Tracking for Loco-Manipulation via Competence Manifold Projection

While decoupled control schemes for legged mobile manipulators have shown robustness, learning holistic whole-body control policies for tracking global end-effector poses remains fragile against Out-of-Distribution (OOD) inputs induced by sensor noise or infeasible user commands. To improve robustness against these perturbations without sacrificing task performance and continuity, we propose Competence Manifold Projection (CMP). Specifically, we utilize a Frame-Wise Safety Scheme that transforms the infinite-horizon safety constraint into a computationally efficient single-step manifold inclusion. To instantiate this competence manifold, we employ a Lower-Bounded Safety Estimator that distinguishes unmastered intentions from the training distribution. We then introduce an Isomorphic Latent Space (ILS) that aligns manifold geometry with safety probability, enabling efficient O(1) seamless defense against arbitrary OOD intents. Experiments demonstrate that CMP achieves up to a 10-fold survival rate improvement in typical OOD scenarios where baselines suffer catastrophic failure, incurring under 10% tracking degradation. Notably, the system exhibits emergent ``best-effort'' generalization behaviors to progressively accomplish OOD goals by adhering to the competence boundaries. Result videos are available at: https://shepherd1226.github.io/CMP.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2026

F2F-AP: Flow-to-Future Asynchronous Policy for Real-time Dynamic Manipulation

Asynchronous inference has emerged as a prevalent paradigm in robotic manipulation, achieving significant progress in ensuring trajectory smoothness and efficiency. However, a systemic challenge remains unresolved, as inherent latency causes generated actions to inevitably lag behind the real-time environment. This issue is particularly exacerbated in dynamic scenarios, where such temporal misalignment severely compromises the policy's ability to interpret and react to rapidly evolving surroundings. In this paper, we propose a novel framework that leverages predicted object flow to synthesize future observations, incorporating a flow-based contrastive learning objective to align the visual feature representations of predicted observations with ground-truth future states. Empowered by this anticipated visual context, our asynchronous policy gains the capacity for proactive planning and motion, enabling it to explicitly compensate for latency and robustly execute manipulation tasks involving actively moving objects. Experimental results demonstrate that our approach significantly enhances responsiveness and success rates in complex dynamic manipulation tasks.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2025

GC-VLN: Instruction as Graph Constraints for Training-free Vision-and-Language Navigation

In this paper, we propose a training-free framework for vision-and-language navigation (VLN). Existing zero-shot VLN methods are mainly designed for discrete environments or involve unsupervised training in continuous simulator environments, which makes it challenging to generalize and deploy them in real-world scenarios. To achieve a training-free framework in continuous environments, our framework formulates navigation guidance as graph constraint optimization by decomposing instructions into explicit spatial constraints. The constraint-driven paradigm decodes spatial semantics through constraint solving, enabling zero-shot adaptation to unseen environments. Specifically, we construct a spatial constraint library covering all types of spatial relationship mentioned in VLN instructions. The human instruction is decomposed into a directed acyclic graph, with waypoint nodes, object nodes and edges, which are used as queries to retrieve the library to build the graph constraints. The graph constraint optimization is solved by the constraint solver to determine the positions of waypoints, obtaining the robot's navigation path and final goal. To handle cases of no solution or multiple solutions, we construct a navigation tree and the backtracking mechanism. Extensive experiments on standard benchmarks demonstrate significant improvements in success rate and navigation efficiency compared to state-of-the-art zero-shot VLN methods. We further conduct real-world experiments to show that our framework can effectively generalize to new environments and instruction sets, paving the way for a more robust and autonomous navigation framework.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2025

Learned Off-aperture Encoding for Wide Field-of-view RGBD Imaging

End-to-end (E2E) designed imaging systems integrate coded optical designs with decoding algorithms to enhance imaging fidelity for diverse visual tasks. However, existing E2E designs encounter significant challenges in maintaining high image fidelity at wide fields of view, due to high computational complexity, as well as difficulties in modeling off-axis wave propagation while accounting for off-axis aberrations. In particular, the common approach of placing the encoding element into the aperture or pupil plane results in only a global control of the wavefront. To overcome these limitations, this work explores an additional design choice by positioning a DOE off-aperture, enabling a spatial unmixing of the degrees of freedom and providing local control over the wavefront over the image plane. Our approach further leverages hybrid refractive-diffractive optical systems by linking differentiable ray and wave optics modeling, thereby optimizing depth imaging quality and demonstrating system versatility. Experimental results reveal that the off-aperture DOE enhances the imaging quality by over 5 dB in PSNR at a FoV of approximately $45^\circ$ when paired with a simple thin lens, outperforming traditional on-aperture systems. Furthermore, we successfully recover color and depth information at nearly $28^\circ$ FoV using off-aperture DOE configurations with compound optics. Physical prototypes for both applications validate the effectiveness and versatility of the proposed method.

eess.IV↗

arXiv2025

Semiparametric Off-Policy Inference for Optimal Policy Values under Possible Non-Uniqueness

Off-policy evaluation (OPE) constructs confidence intervals for the value of a target policy using data generated under a different behavior policy. Most existing inference methods focus on fixed target policies and may fail when the target policy is estimated as optimal, particularly when the optimal policy is non-unique or nearly deterministic. We study inference for the value of optimal policies in Markov decision processes. In an auxiliary augmented transition-sampling experiment, we characterize the existence of the efficient influence function and show that non-regularity arises when competing optimal policies havedistinct first-order gradients. For the actual i.i.d.-trajectory experiment, we derive the semiparametric efficiency bound and a uniformly weighted estimator that attains it under a unique optimum, while the sequential NSAVE procedure trades efficiency for stability and validity under non-uniqueness. Motivated by this analysis, we propose a novel \textit{N}onparametric \textit{S}equenti\textit{A}l \textit{V}alue \textit{E}valuation (NSAVE) method, which yields martingale-based inference and retains a double-robustness property under policy-aligned nuisance estimation. We further develop a pointwise smoothing-based approximation under explicit first-stage rates, and a post-selection template with uniform coverage whenever its stated joint calibration condition is satisfied. Simulation studies support the theoretical results. An application to the Drink Less micro-randomized trial provides confidence intervals for state-adaptive notification policies and their improvement over the randomized behavior policy.

math.ST↗

arXiv2025

Ultrafast switchable polar and magnetic orders by nonlinear light-matter interaction

An outstanding challenge in materials science and physics is the harnessing of light for switching charge order in e.g., ferroelectrics. Here we propose a mechanism through which electrons in ferroelectric bilayers excited with light cause ionic structural transitions. Using perturbation theory within a many-body formalism, we show that the ionic coupling is mediated by a resonant change in electronic occupation functions, ultimately governed by the quantum geometric tensor (QGT) of the ground state. Furthermore, we show that such transitions are generally accompanied by multiferroic order switching. We demonstrate two examples of light-induced structural and polarization switching under this mechanism using first-principle calculations on bilayer CrI$_{3}$ and MoTe$_{2}$. We show that the two materials can switch between atomic stackings with a light intensity threshold of only 10-100 GW/cm$^2$, a value 1-3 orders of magnitude lower than that required by direct light-ion coupling thanks to the superior efficiency of resonant light-electron coupling. Since such switching is fast, highly controllable, contactless, and reversible, it is promising for use in optically controlled nonvolatile memory, nanophotonics and polar electronics.

cond-mat.mtrl-sci↗

arXiv2025

Selective Reviews of Bandit Problems in AI via a Statistical View

Reinforcement Learning (RL) is a widely researched area in artificial intelligence that focuses on teaching agents decision-making through interactions with their environment. A key subset includes stochastic multi-armed bandit (MAB) and continuum-armed bandit (SCAB) problems, which model sequential decision-making under uncertainty. This review outlines the foundational models and assumptions of bandit problems, explores non-asymptotic theoretical tools like concentration inequalities and minimax regret bounds, and compares frequentist and Bayesian algorithms for managing exploration-exploitation trade-offs. Additionally, we explore K-armed contextual bandits and SCAB, focusing on their methodologies and regret analyses. We also examine the connections between SCAB problems and functional data analysis. Finally, we highlight recent advances and ongoing challenges in the field.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2025

Zero-Inflated Bandits

Many real-world bandit applications are characterized by sparse rewards, which can significantly hinder learning efficiency. Leveraging problem-specific structures for careful distribution modeling is recognized as essential for improving estimation efficiency in statistics. However, this approach remains under-explored in the context of bandits. To address this gap, we initiate the study of zero-inflated bandits, where the reward is modeled using a classic semi-parametric distribution known as the zero-inflated distribution. We develop algorithms based on the Upper Confidence Bound and Thompson Sampling frameworks for this specific structure. The superior empirical performance of these methods is demonstrated through extensive numerical studies.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

High-dimensional Inference and FDR Control for Simulated Markov Random Fields

Identifying important features linked to a response variable is a fundamental task in various scientific domains. This article explores statistical inference for simulated Markov random fields in high-dimensional settings. We introduce a methodology based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MCMC-MLE) with Elastic-net regularization. Under mild conditions on the MCMC method, our penalized MCMC-MLE method achieves $\ell_{1}$-consistency. We propose a decorrelated score test, establishing both its asymptotic normality and that of a one-step estimator, along with the associated confidence interval. Furthermore, we construct two false discovery rate control procedures via the asymptotic behaviors for both p-values and e-values. Comprehensive numerical simulations confirm the theoretical validity of the proposed methods.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2024

On Efficient Inference of Causal Effects with Multiple Mediators

This paper provides robust estimators and efficient inference of causal effects involving multiple interacting mediators. Most existing works either impose a linear model assumption among the mediators or are restricted to handle conditionally independent mediators given the exposure. To overcome these limitations, we define causal and individual mediation effects in a general setting, and employ a semiparametric framework to develop quadruply robust estimators for these causal effects. We further establish the asymptotic normality of the proposed estimators and prove their local semiparametric efficiencies. The proposed method is empirically validated via simulated and real datasets concerning psychiatric disorders in trauma survivors.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2023

Asymptotic in a class of network models with an increasing sub-Gamma degree sequence

For the differential privacy under the sub-Gamma noise, we derive the asymptotic properties of a class of network models with binary values with a general link function. In this paper, we release the degree sequences of the binary networks under a general noisy mechanism with the discrete Laplace mechanism as a special case. We establish the asymptotic result including both consistency and asymptotically normality of the parameter estimator when the number of parameters goes to infinity in a class of network models. Simulations and a real data example are provided to illustrate asymptotic results.

math.ST↗

arXiv2023

Tight Non-asymptotic Inference via Sub-Gaussian Intrinsic Moment Norm

In non-asymptotic learning, variance-type parameters of sub-Gaussian distributions are of paramount importance. However, directly estimating these parameters using the empirical moment generating function (MGF) is infeasible. To address this, we suggest using the sub-Gaussian intrinsic moment norm [Buldygin and Kozachenko (2000), Theorem 1.3] achieved by maximizing a sequence of normalized moments. Significantly, the suggested norm can not only reconstruct the exponential moment bounds of MGFs but also provide tighter sub-Gaussian concentration inequalities. In practice, we provide an intuitive method for assessing whether data with a finite sample size is sub-Gaussian, utilizing the sub-Gaussian plot. The intrinsic moment norm can be robustly estimated via a simple plug-in approach. Our theoretical findings are also applicable to reinforcement learning, including the multi-armed bandit scenario.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2023

Multiplier Bootstrap-based Exploration

Despite the great interest in the bandit problem, designing efficient algorithms for complex models remains challenging, as there is typically no analytical way to quantify uncertainty. In this paper, we propose Multiplier Bootstrap-based Exploration (MBE), a novel exploration strategy that is applicable to any reward model amenable to weighted loss minimization. We prove both instance-dependent and instance-independent rate-optimal regret bounds for MBE in sub-Gaussian multi-armed bandits. With extensive simulation and real data experiments, we show the generality and adaptivity of MBE.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2022

Concentration inequalities of MLE and robust MLE

The Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) serves an important role in statistics and machine learning. In this article, for i.i.d. variables, we obtain constant-specified and sharp concentration inequalities and oracle inequalities for the MLE only under exponential moment conditions. Furthermore, in a robust setting, the sub-Gaussian type oracle inequalities of the log-truncated maximum likelihood estimator are derived under the second-moment condition.

math.ST↗

arXiv2022

Sharper Sub-Weibull Concentrations

Constant-specified and exponential concentration inequalities play an essential role in the finite-sample theory of machine learning and high-dimensional statistics area. We obtain sharper and constants-specified concentration inequalities for the sum of independent sub-Weibull random variables, which leads to a mixture of two tails: sub-Gaussian for small deviations and sub-Weibull for large deviations from the mean. These bounds are new and improve existing bounds with sharper constants. In addition, a new sub-Weibull parameter if the italic should be retained. Please check the whole text. is also proposed, which enables recovering the tight concentration inequality for a random variable (vector). For statistical applications, we give an $\ell_2$-error of estimated coefficients in negative binomial regressions when the heavy-tailed covariates are sub-Weibull distributed with sparse structures, which is a new result for negative binomial regressions. In applying random matrices, we derive non-asymptotic versions of Bai-Yin's theorem for sub-Weibull entries with exponential tail bounds. Finally, by demonstrating a sub-Weibull confidence region for a log-truncated Z-estimator without the second-moment condition, we discuss and define the sub-Weibull type robust estimator for independent observations $\{X_i\}_{i=1}^{n}$ without exponential-moment conditions.

math.ST↗

arXiv2022

Heterogeneous Overdispersed Count Data Regressions via Double Penalized Estimations

This paper studies the non-asymptotic merits of the double $\ell_1$-regularized for heterogeneous overdispersed count data via negative binomial regressions. Under the restricted eigenvalue conditions, we prove the oracle inequalities for Lasso estimators of two partial regression coefficients for the first time, using concentration inequalities of empirical processes. Furthermore, derived from the oracle inequalities, the consistency and convergence rate for the estimators are the theoretical guarantees for further statistical inference. Finally, both simulations and a real data analysis demonstrate that the new methods are effective.

stat.ME↗