arXiv subjects

Hardhik Mohanty

Publications and source records attributed to Hardhik Mohanty.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

CRISP: Scalable Importance-Stratified Coresets for Imbalanced Tabular Learning

Large imbalanced tabular datasets make repeated gradient-boosted tree training expensive. Existing coreset methods often lose accuracy when most majority examples are removed. We present CRISP (Coreset Reduction via Importance-Stratified Pruning), a linear-time method that allocates a negative-class budget across quantile strata of a proxy-model score. Sample weights account for unequal inclusion probabilities. At 95% negative-class reduction on a production fraud dataset, CRISP trains on approximately 1.70M of 25M rows and retains 99.7% of full-data Average Precision. This is a 93.2% reduction in total training rows. On public CriteoPrivateAds, CRISP has the highest mean Average Precision at each tested rate from 90% to 99.4% majority reduction. Sparkov results are mixed at lower rates, but CRISP has the highest mean at 99.2% and 99.4%. Ablations identify budget allocation and inverse-propensity weighting as the main sources of the production-dataset gain.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Who Restores the Peg? A Mean-Field Game Approach to Model Stablecoin Market Dynamics

USDC and USDT are the dominant stablecoins pegged to \$1 with a total market capitalization of over \$300B and rising. Stablecoins make dollar value globally accessible with secure transfer and settlement. Yet in practice, these stablecoins experience periods of stress and de-pegging from their \$1 target, posing significant systemic risks. The behavior of market participants during these stress events and the collective actions that either restore or break the peg are not well understood. This paper addresses the question: who restores the peg?. We develop a dynamic, agent-based mean-field game framework for fiat-collateralized stablecoins, in which a large population of arbitrageurs and retail traders strategically interact across primary and secondary markets during a de-peg episode. The key advantage of this equilibrium formulation is that it endogenously maps market frictions into a market-clearing price path and implied net order flows, allowing us to attribute peg-reverting pressure by channel and to stress-test when a given infrastructure becomes insufficient for recovery. Using three historical de-peg events, we show that the calibrated equilibrium reproduces observed recovery half-lives and yields an order flow decomposition in which system-wide stress is predominantly stabilized by primary-market arbitrage. Finally, a quantitative sensitivity analysis identifies a non-linear breakdown threshold, beyond which a de-peg becomes markedly slower to reverse.

q-fin.TR↗

arXiv2026

Proactive Market Making and Liquidity Analysis for Everlasting Options in DeFi Ecosystems

Everlasting options, a relatively new class of perpetual financial derivatives, have emerged to tackle the challenges of rolling contracts and liquidity fragmentation in decentralized finance markets. This paper offers an in-depth analysis of markets for everlasting options, modeled using a dynamic proactive market maker. We examine the behavior of funding fees and transaction costs across varying liquidity conditions. Using simulations and modeling, we demonstrate that liquidity providers can aim to achieve a net positive PnL by employing effective hedging strategies, even in challenging environments characterized by low liquidity and high transaction costs. Additionally, we provide insights into the incentives that drive liquidity providers to support the growth of everlasting option markets and highlight the significant benefits these instruments offer to traders as a reliable and efficient financial tool.

q-fin.CP↗

arXiv2026

A Survey on the Applications of Zero-Knowledge Proofs

Zero-knowledge proofs (ZKPs) enable computational integrity and privacy by allowing one party to prove the truth of a statement without revealing underlying data. Compared with alternatives such as homomorphic encryption and secure multiparty computation, ZKPs offer distinct advantages in universality and minimal trust assumptions, with applications spanning blockchain systems and confidential verification of computational tasks. This survey provides a technical overview of ZKPs with a focus on an increasingly relevant subset called zkSNARKs. Unlike prior surveys emphasizing algorithmic and theoretical aspects, we take a broader view of practical deployments and recent use cases across multiple domains including blockchain privacy, scaling, storage, and interoperability, as well as non-blockchain applications such as voting, authentication, timelocks, and machine learning. To support consistent comparison, we provide (i) a taxonomy of application areas, (ii) evaluation criteria including proof size, prover and verifier time, memory, and setup assumptions, and (iii) comparative tables summarizing key tradeoffs and representative systems. The survey also covers supporting infrastructure, including zero-knowledge virtual machines, domain-specific languages, libraries, and frameworks. While emphasizing zkSNARKs for their prevalence in deployed systems, we compare them with zkSTARKs and Bulletproofs to clarify transparency and performance tradeoffs. We conclude with future research and application directions.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2026

Do Prediction Markets Forecast Cryptocurrency Volatility? Evidence from Kalshi Macro Contracts

Daily probability changes in Kalshi macro prediction markets forecast cryptocurrency realized volatility through two distinct channels. The monetary policy channel, measured by Fed rate repricing on KXFED contracts, predicts Bitcoin volatility in sample with t = 3.63 and p < 0.001 but exhibits regime dependence tied to the 2024-2025 rate-cutting cycle. The recession risk signal from KXRECSSNBER proves more stable out of sample, delivering an MSFE ratio of 0.979 with Clark-West p = 0.020. The inflation channel, measured by CPI repricing on KXCPI contracts, predicts altcoin volatility for Ethereum, Solana, Cardano, and Chainlink with t-statistics ranging from -2.1 to -3.4 and out-of-sample gains for Ethereum at MSFE = 0.959 with p = 0.010 and Solana at p = 0.048. Both the Bitcoin--Fed-dovish and Chainlink--CPI specifications survive Benjamini-Hochberg correction at q = 0.05. Orthogonalization and baseline comparisons against Fed Funds futures, Treasury yields, and the Deribit implied volatility index confirm that these signals carry information not embedded in conventional financial instruments. The sample covers ten Kalshi event series and six cryptocurrency assets over January 2023 to March 2026.

q-fin.ST↗

arXiv2024

Modeling and Analysis of Crypto-Backed Over-Collateralized Stable Derivatives in DeFi

In decentralized finance (DeFi), stablecoins like DAI are designed to offer a stable value amidst the fluctuating nature of cryptocurrencies. We examine the class of crypto-backed stable derivatives, with a focus on mechanisms for price stabilization, which is exemplified by the well-known stablecoin DAI from MakerDAO. For simplicity, we focus on a single-collateral setting. We introduce a belief parameter to the simulation model of DAI in a previous work (DAISIM), reflecting market sentiments about the value and stability of DAI, and show that it better matches the expected behavior when this parameter is set to a sufficiently high value. We also propose a simple mathematical model of DAI price to explain its stability and dependency on ETH price. Finally, we analyze possible risk factors associated with these stable derivatives to provide valuable insights for stakeholders in the DeFi ecosystem.

q-fin.RM↗

arXiv2021

Kolmogorov-Smirnov Test-Based Actively-Adaptive Thompson Sampling for Non-Stationary Bandits

We consider the non-stationary multi-armed bandit (MAB) framework and propose a Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test based Thompson Sampling (TS) algorithm named TS-KS, that actively detects change points and resets the TS parameters once a change is detected. In particular, for the two-armed bandit case, we derive bounds on the number of samples of the reward distribution to detect the change once it occurs. Consequently, we show that the proposed algorithm has sub-linear regret. Contrary to existing works, our algorithm is able to detect a change when the underlying reward distribution changes even though the mean reward remains the same. Finally, to test the efficacy of the proposed algorithm, we employ it in two case-studies: i) task-offloading scenario in wireless edge-computing, and ii) portfolio optimization. Our results show that the proposed TS-KS algorithm outperforms not only the static TS algorithm but also it performs better than other bandit algorithms designed for non-stationary environments. Moreover, the performance of TS-KS is at par with the state-of-the-art forecasting algorithms such as Facebook-PROPHET and ARIMA.

stat.ML↗