arXiv subjects

Harry Pei

Publications and source records attributed to Harry Pei.

17 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Selective Disclosure in Overlapping Generations

We develop an overlapping generations model where each agent observes a verifiable private signal about the state and, with positive probability, also receives signals disclosed by his predecessor. The agent then takes an action and decides which signals to pass on. Each agent's action has a positive externality on his predecessor and his optimal action increases in his belief about the state. We show that as the probability that messages reach the next generation approaches one, agents become increasingly selective in disclosing information. In the limit, all signals except for the most favorable ones will be concealed.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2026

Bayesian Persuasion with Selective Disclosure

A sender first publicly commits to an experiment and then can privately run additional experiments and selectively disclose their outcomes to a receiver. The sender has private information about the maximal number of additional experiments they can perform (i.e., their type). We show that the sender cannot attain their commitment payoff in any equilibrium if (i) the receiver is sufficiently uncertain about their type and (ii) the sender could benefit from selective disclosure after conducting their full-commitment optimal experiment. Otherwise, there can be equilibria where the sender obtains their commitment payoff.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2025

Replacement and Reputation

Does electoral replacement ensure that officeholders eventually act in voters' interests? We study a reputational model of accountability. Voters observe incumbents' performance and decide whether to replace them. Politicians may be "good" types who always exert effort or opportunists who may shirk. We find that good long-run outcomes are always attainable, though the mechanism and its robustness depend on economic conditions. In environments conducive to incentive provision, some equilibria feature sustained effort, yet others exhibit some long-run shirking. In the complementary case, opportunists are never fully disciplined, but selection dominates: every equilibrium eventually settles on a good politician, yielding permanent effort.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2025

Commitment, Conflict, and Status Quo in Bargaining

Each period, two players bargain over a unit of surplus. Each player chooses between remaining flexible and committing to a take-it-or-leave-it offer at a cost. If players' committed demands are incompatible, then the current-period surplus is destroyed in the conflict. When both players are flexible, the surplus is split according to the status quo, which is the division in the last period where there was no conflict. We show that when players are patient and the cost of commitment is small, there exist a class of symmetric Markov Perfect equilibria that are asymptotically efficient and renegotiation proof, in which players commit to fair demands in almost all periods.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2024

Community Enforcement with Endogenous Records

I study repeated games with anonymous random matching where players endogenously decide whether to disclose signals about their past actions. I establish an-anti folk theorem, that when players are sufficiently long-lived, they will almost always play their dominant actions and will almost never cooperate. When players' expected lifespans are intermediate, they can sustain some cooperation if their actions are substitutes but cannot sustain any cooperation if their actions are complements. Therefore, the maximal level of cooperation a community can sustain is not monotone with respect to its members' expected lifespans and the complementarity of players' actions can undermine their abilities to sustain cooperation.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2023

Reputation Effects with Endogenous Records

A patient firm interacts with a sequence of consumers. The firm is either an honest type who supplies high quality and never erases its records, or an opportunistic type who chooses what quality to supply and may erase its records at a low cost. We show that in every equilibrium, the firm has an incentive to build a reputation for supplying high quality until its continuation value exceeds its commitment payoff, but its ex ante payoff must be close to its minmax value when it has a sufficiently long lifespan. Therefore, even a small fraction of opportunistic types can wipe out the firm's returns from building reputations. Even if the honest type can commit to reveal information about its history according to any disclosure policy, the opportunistic type's payoff cannot exceed its equilibrium payoff when the consumers receive no information.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2022

Reputation Effects under Short Memories

I analyze a novel reputation game between a patient seller and a sequence of myopic consumers, in which the consumers have limited memories and do not know the exact sequence of the seller's actions. I focus on the case where each consumer only observes the number of times that the seller took each of his actions in the last K periods. When payoffs are monotone-supermodular, I show that the patient seller can approximately secure his commitment payoff in all equilibria as long as K is at least one. I also show that the consumers can approximately attain their first-best welfare in all equilibria if and only if their memory length K is lower than some cutoff. Although a longer memory enables more consumers to punish the seller once the seller shirks, it weakens their incentives to punish the seller once they observe him shirking

econ.TH↗

arXiv2022

Reputational Bargaining and Inefficient Technology Adoption

A buyer and a seller bargain over the price of an object. Both players can build reputations for being obstinate by offering the same price over time. Before players bargain, the seller decides whether to adopt a new technology that can lower his cost of production. We show that even when the buyer cannot observe the seller's adoption decision, players' reputational incentives can lead to inefficient under-adoption and significant delays in reaching agreement, and that these inefficiencies arise in equilibrium if and only if the social benefit from adoption is large enough. Our result implies that an increase in the benefit from adoption may lower the probability of adoption and that the seller's opportunity to adopt a cost-saving technology may lower social welfare.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2021

Robust Implementation with Costly Information

We study whether a planner can robustly implement a state-contingent social choice function when (i) agents must incur a cost to learn the state and (ii) the planner faces uncertainty regarding agents' preferences over outcomes, information costs, and beliefs and higher-order beliefs about one another's payoffs. We propose mechanisms that can approximately implement any desired social choice function when the perturbations concerning agents' payoffs have small ex ante probability. The mechanism is also robust to trembles in agents' strategies and when agents receive noisy information about the state.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2021

Reputation for Playing Mixed Actions: A Characterization Theorem

A patient player privately observes a persistent state that directly affects his myopic opponents' payoffs, and can be one of the several commitment types that plays the same mixed action in every period. I characterize the set of environments under which the patient player obtains at least his commitment payoff in all equilibria regardless of his stage-game payoff function. Due to interdependent values, the patient player cannot guarantee his mixed commitment payoff by imitating the mixed-strategy commitment type, and small perturbations to a pure commitment action can significantly reduce the patient player's guaranteed equilibrium payoff.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2021

Equilibrium Behaviors in Repeated Games

We examine a patient player's behavior when he can build reputations in front of a sequence of myopic opponents. With positive probability, the patient player is a commitment type who plays his Stackelberg action in every period. We characterize the patient player's action frequencies in equilibrium. Our results clarify the extent to which reputations can refine the patient player's behavior and provide new insights to entry deterrence, business transactions, and capital taxation. Our proof makes a methodological contribution by establishing a new concentration inequality.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2020

Misspecified Beliefs about Time Lags

We examine the long-term behavior of a Bayesian agent who has a misspecified belief about the time lag between actions and feedback, and learns about the payoff consequences of his actions over time. Misspecified beliefs about time lags result in attribution errors, which have no long-term effect when the agent's action converges, but can lead to arbitrarily large long-term inefficiencies when his action cycles. Our proof uses concentration inequalities to bound the frequency of action switches, which are useful to study learning problems with history dependence. We apply our methods to study a policy choice game between a policy-maker who has a correctly specified belief about the time lag and the public who has a misspecified belief.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2020

A Reputation for Honesty

We analyze situations in which players build reputations for honesty rather than for playing particular actions. A patient player facing a sequence of short-run opponents makes an announcement about their intended action after observing an idiosyncratic shock, and before players act. The patient player is either an honest type whose action coincides with their announcement, or an opportunistic type who can freely choose their actions. We show that the patient player can secure a high payoff by building a reputation for being honest when the short-run players face uncertainty about which of the patient player's actions are currently feasible, but may receive a low payoff when there is no such uncertainty.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2020

Reputation Building under Observational Learning

I study a social learning model in which the object to learn is a strategic player's endogenous actions rather than an exogenous state. A patient seller faces a sequence of buyers and decides whether to build a reputation for supplying high quality products. Each buyer does not have access to the seller's complete records, but can observe all previous buyers' actions, and some informative private signal about the seller's actions. I examine how the buyers' private signals affect the speed of social learning and the seller's incentives to establish reputations. When each buyer privately observes a bounded subset of the seller's past actions, the speed of learning is strictly positive but can vanish to zero as the seller becomes patient. As a result, reputation building can lead to low payoff for the patient seller and low social welfare. When each buyer observes an unboundedly informative private signal about the seller's current-period action, the speed of learning is uniformly bounded from below and a patient seller can secure high returns from building reputations. My results shed light on the effectiveness of various policies in accelerating social learning and encouraging sellers to establish good reputations.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2020

Crime Aggregation, Deterrence, and Witness Credibility

We present a model for the equilibrium frequency of offenses and the informativeness of witness reports when potential offenders can commit multiple offenses and witnesses are subject to retaliation risk and idiosyncratic reporting preferences. We compare two ways of handling multiple accusations discussed in legal scholarship: (i) When convictions are based on the probability that the defendant committed at least one, unspecified offense and entail a severe punishment, potential offenders induce negative correlation in witnesses' private information, which leads to uninformative reports, information aggregation failures, and frequent offenses in equilibrium. Moreover, lowering the punishment in case of conviction can improve deterrence and the informativeness of witnesses' reports. (ii) When accusations are treated separately to adjudicate guilt and conviction entails a severe punishment, witness reports are highly informative and offenses are infrequent in equilibrium.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2020

Repeated Communication with Private Lying Cost

I study repeated communication games between a patient sender and a sequence of receivers. The sender has persistent private information about his psychological cost of lying, and in every period, can privately observe the realization of an i.i.d. state before communication takes place. I characterize every type of sender's highest equilibrium payoff. When the highest lying cost in the support of the receivers' prior belief approaches the sender's benefit from lying, every type's highest equilibrium payoff in the repeated communication game converges to his equilibrium payoff in a one-shot Bayesian persuasion game. I also show that in every sender-optimal equilibrium, no type of sender mixes between telling the truth and lying at every history. When there exist ethical types whose lying costs outweigh their benefits, I provide necessary and sufficient conditions for all non-ethical type senders to attain their optimal commitment payoffs. I identify an outside option effect through which the possibility of being ethical decreases every non-ethical type's payoff.

econ.TH↗

arXiv2020

Trust and Betrayals: Reputational Payoffs and Behaviors without Commitment

I study a repeated game in which a patient player (e.g., a seller) wants to win the trust of some myopic opponents (e.g., buyers) but can strictly benefit from betraying them. Her benefit from betrayal is strictly positive and is her persistent private information. I characterize every type of patient player's highest equilibrium payoff. Her persistent private information affects this payoff only through the lowest benefit in the support of her opponents' prior belief. I also show that in every equilibrium which is optimal for the patient player, her on-path behavior is nonstationary, and her long-run action frequencies are pinned down for all except two types. Conceptually, my payoff-type approach incorporates a realistic concern that no type of reputation-building player is immune to reneging temptations. Compared to commitment-type models, the incentive constraints for all types of patient player lead to a sharp characterization of her highest attainable payoff and novel predictions on her behaviors.

econ.TH↗