arXiv subjects

Harsha Honnappa

Publications and source records attributed to Harsha Honnappa.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

Diffusion Approximations for $\text{Cox}/G_t/\infty$ Queues In A Fast Oscillatory Random Environment

We study infinite server queues driven by Cox processes in a fast oscillatory random environment. While exact performance analysis is difficult, we establish diffusion approximations to the (re-scaled) number-in-system process by proving functional central limit theorems (FCLTs) using a stochastic homogenization framework. This framework permits the establishment of quenched and annealed limits in a unified manner. At the quantitative level, we identity two parameter regimes, termed subcritical and supercritical indicating the relative dominance between the two underlying stochasticities driving our system: the randomness in the arrival intensity and that in the serivce times. We show that while quenched FCLTs can only be established in the subcritical regime, annealed FCLTs can be proved in both cases. Furthermore, the limiting diffusions in the annealed FCLTs display qualitatively different diffusivity properties in the two regimes, even though the stochastic primitives are identical. In particular, when the service time distribution is heavy-tailed, the diffusion is sub- and super-diffusive in the sub- and super-critical cases. The results illustrate intricate interactions between the underlying driving forces of our system.

math.PR↗

arXiv2021

A Feynman-Kac Type Theorem for ODEs: Solutions of Second Order ODEs as Modes of Diffusions

In this article, we prove a Feynman-Kac type result for a broad class of second order ordinary differential equations. The classical Feynman-Kac theorem says that the solution to a broad class of second order parabolic equations is the mean of a particular diffusion. In our situation, we show that the solution to a system of second order ordinary differential equations is the mode of a diffusion, defined through the Onsager-Machlup formalism. One potential utility of our result is to use Monte Carlo type methods to estimate the solutions of ordinary differential equations. We conclude with examples of our result illustrating its utility in numerically solving linear second order ODEs.

math.CA↗

arXiv2021

Information Projection on Banach spaces with Applications to State Independent KL-Weighted Optimal Control

This paper studies constrained information projections on Banach spaces with respect to a Gaussian reference measure. Specifically our interest lies in characterizing projections of the reference measure, with respect to the KL-divergence, onto sets of measures corresponding to changes in the mean (or {\it shift measures}). As our main result, we give a portmanteau theorem that characterizes the relationship among several different formulations of this problem. In the general setting of Gaussian measures on a Banach space, we show that this information projection problem is equivalent to minimization of a certain Onsager-Machlup (OM) function with respect to an associated stochastic process. We then construct several reformulations in the more specific setting of classical Wiener space. First, we show that KL-weighted optimization over shift measures can also be expressed in terms of an OM function for an associated stochastic process that we are able to characterize. Next, we show how to encode the feasible set of shift measures through an explicit functional constraint by constructing an appropriate penalty function. Finally, we express our information projection problem as a calculus of variations problem, which suggests a solution procedure via the Euler-Lagrange equation. We work out the details of these reformulations for several specific examples.

math.PR↗

arXiv2021

PAC-Bayes Bounds on Variational Tempered Posteriors for Markov Models

Datasets displaying temporal dependencies abound in science and engineering applications, with Markov models representing a simplified and popular view of the temporal dependence structure. In this paper, we consider Bayesian settings that place prior distributions over the parameters of the transition kernel of a Markov model, and seeks to characterize the resulting, typically intractable, posterior distributions. We present a PAC-Bayesian analysis of variational Bayes (VB) approximations to tempered Bayesian posterior distributions, bounding the model risk of the VB approximations. Tempered posteriors are known to be robust to model misspecification, and their variational approximations do not suffer the usual problems of over confident approximations. Our results tie the risk bounds to the mixing and ergodic properties of the Markov data generating model. We illustrate the PAC-Bayes bounds through a number of example Markov models, and also consider the situation where the Markov model is misspecified.

math.ST↗

arXiv2020

Asymptotic Consistency of $α-$Rényi-Approximate Posteriors

We study the asymptotic consistency properties of $α$-Rényi approximate posteriors, a class of variational Bayesian methods that approximate an intractable Bayesian posterior with a member of a tractable family of distributions, the member chosen to minimize the $α$-Rényi divergence from the true posterior. Unique to our work is that we consider settings with $α> 1$, resulting in approximations that upperbound the log-likelihood, and consequently have wider spread than traditional variational approaches that minimize the Kullback-Liebler (KL) divergence from the posterior. Our primary result identifies sufficient conditions under which consistency holds, centering around the existence of a 'good' sequence of distributions in the approximating family that possesses, among other properties, the right rate of convergence to a limit distribution. We further characterize the good sequence by demonstrating that a sequence of distributions that converges too quickly cannot be a good sequence. We also extend our analysis to the setting where $α$ equals one, corresponding to the minimizer of the reverse KL divergence, and to models with local latent variables. We also illustrate the existence of good sequence with a number of examples. Our results complement a growing body of work focused on the frequentist properties of variational Bayesian methods.

math.ST↗

arXiv2020

Estimating Stochastic Poisson Intensities Using Deep Latent Models

We present methodology for estimating the stochastic intensity of a doubly stochastic Poisson process. Statistical and theoretical analyses of traffic traces show that these processes are appropriate models of high intensity traffic arriving at an array of service systems. The statistical estimation of the underlying latent stochastic intensity process driving the traffic model involves a rather complicated nonlinear filtering problem. We develop a novel simulation methodology, using deep neural networks to approximate the path measures induced by the stochastic intensity process, for solving this nonlinear filtering problem. Our simulation studies demonstrate that the method is quite accurate on both in-sample estimation and on an out-of-sample performance prediction task for an infinite server queue.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2020

Infinite server queues in a random fast oscillatory environment

In this paper, we consider a $G_t/G_t/\infty$ infinite server queueing model in a random environment. More specifically, the arrival rate in our server is modeled as a highly fluctuating stochastic process, which arguably takes into account some small time scale variations often observed in practice. We show a homogenization property for this system, which yields an approximation by a $M_t/G_t/\infty$ queue with modified parameters. Our limiting results include the description of the number of active servers, the total accumulated input and the solution of the storage equation. Hence in the fast oscillatory context under consideration, we show how the queuing system in a random environment can be approximated by a more classical Markovian system.

math.PR↗

arXiv2020

Variational Bayesian Methods for Stochastically Constrained System Design Problems

We study system design problems stated as parameterized stochastic programs with a chance-constraint set. We adopt a Bayesian approach that requires the computation of a posterior predictive integral which is usually intractable. In addition, for the problem to be a well-defined convex program, we must retain the convexity of the feasible set. Consequently, we propose a variational Bayes-based method to approximately compute the posterior predictive integral that ensures tractability and retains the convexity of the feasible set. Under certain regularity conditions, we also show that the solution set obtained using variational Bayes converges to the true solution set as the number of observations tends to infinity. We also provide bounds on the probability of qualifying a true infeasible point (with respect to the true constraints) as feasible under the VB approximation for a given number of samples.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2019

A Many-Server Functional Strong Law For A Non-Stationary Loss Model

The purpose of this note is to show that it is possible to establish a many-server functional strong law of large numbers (FSLLN) for the fraction of occupied servers (i.e., the scaled number-in-system) without explicitly tracking either the age or the residual service times of the jobs in a non-Markovian, non-stationary loss model. This considerable analytical simplification is achieved by exploiting a semimartingale representation. The fluid limit is shown to be the unique solution of a Volterra integral equation.

math.PR↗

arXiv2019

Asymptotic Consistency of Loss-Calibrated Variational Bayes

This paper establishes the asymptotic consistency of the {\it loss-calibrated variational Bayes} (LCVB) method. LCVB was proposed in~\cite{LaSiGh2011} as a method for approximately computing Bayesian posteriors in a `loss aware' manner. This methodology is also highly relevant in general data-driven decision-making contexts. Here, we not only establish the asymptotic consistency of the calibrated approximate posterior, but also the asymptotic consistency of decision rules. We also establish the asymptotic consistency of decision rules obtained from a `naive' variational Bayesian procedure.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2019

An optimal control approach of day-to-day congestion pricing for stochastic transportation networks

Congestion pricing has become an effective instrument for traffic demand management on road networks. This paper proposes an optimal control approach for congestion pricing for day-to-day timescale that incorporates demand uncertainty and elasticity. Travelers make the decision to travel or not based on the experienced system travel time in the previous day and traffic managers take tolling decisions in order to minimize the average system travel time over a long time horizon. We formulate the problem as a Markov decision process (MDP) and analyze the problem to see if it satisfies conditions for conducting a satisfactory solution analysis. Such an analysis of MDPs is often dependent on the type of state space as well as on the boundedness of travel time functions. We do not constrain the travel time functions to be bounded and present an analysis centered around weighted sup-norm contractions that also holds for unbounded travel time functions. We find that the formulated MDP satisfies a set of assumptions to ensure Bellman's optimality condition. Through this result, the existence of the optimal average cost of the MDP is shown. A method based on approximate dynamic programming is proposed to resolve the implementation and computational issues of solving the control problem. Numerical results suggest that the proposed method efficiently solves the problem and produces accurate solutions.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2019

Strong Embeddings for Transitory Queueing Models

In this paper we establish strong embedding theorems, in the sense of the Komlos-Major-Tusnady framework, for the performance metrics of a general class of transitory queueing models of nonstationary queueing systems. The nonstationary and non-Markovian nature of these models makes the computation of performance metrics hard. The strong embeddings yield error bounds on sample path approximations by diffusion processes, in the form of functional strong approximation theorems.

math.PR↗

arXiv2019

Large Deviations of Bivariate Gaussian Extrema

We establish sharp tail asymptotics for component-wise extreme values of bivariate Gaussian random vectors with arbitrary correlation between the components. We consider two scaling regimes for the tail event in which we demonstrate the existence of a restricted large deviations principle, and identify the unique rate function associated with these asymptotics. Our results identify when the maxima of both coordinates are typically attained by two different vs. the same index, and how this depends on the correlation between the coordinates of the bivariate Gaussian random vectors. Our results complement a growing body of work on the extremes of Gaussian processes. The results are also relevant for steady-state performance and simulation analysis of networks of infinite server queues.

math.PR↗

arXiv2018

Modeling Urban Taxi Services with e-hailings: A Queueing Network Approach

The rise of e-hailing taxis has significantly altered urban transportation and resulted in a competitive taxi market with both traditional street-hailing and e-hailing taxis. The new mobility services provide similar door-to-door rides as the traditional one and there is competition across these various services. In this study, we propose an innovative queueing network model for the competitive taxi market and capture the interactions not only within the taxi market but also between the taxi market and urban road system. An example is designed based on data from New York City. Numerical results show that the proposed modeling structure, together with the corresponding stationary limits, can capture dynamics within high demand areas using multiple data sources. Overall, this study shows how the queueing network approach can measure both the taxi and urban road system performance at an aggregate level. The model can be used to estimate not only the waiting/searching time during passenger-vehicle matching but also the delays in the urban road network. Furthermore, the model can be generalized to study the control and management of taxi markets.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2018

Optimal Allocations for Sample Average Approximation

We consider a single stage stochastic program without recourse with a strictly convex loss function. We assume a compact decision space and grid it with a finite set of points. In addition, we assume that the decision maker can generate samples of the stochastic variable independently at each grid point and form a sample average approximation (SAA) of the stochastic program. Our objective in this paper is to characterize an asymptotically optimal linear sample allocation rule, given a fixed sampling budget, which maximizes the decay rate of probability of making false decision.

stat.CO↗

arXiv2018

Dominating Points of Gaussian Extremes

We quantify the large deviations of Gaussian extreme value statistics on closed convex sets in d-dimensional Euclidean space. The asymptotics imply that the extreme value distribution exhibits a rate function that is a simple quadratic function of a unique "dominating point" located on the boundary of the convex set. Furthermore, the dominating point is identified as the optimizer of a certain convex quadratic programming problem, indicating a "collusion" between the dependence structure of the Gaussian random vectors and the geometry of the convex set in determining the asymptotics. We specialize our main result to polyhedral sets which appear frequently in other contexts involving logarithmic asymptotics. We also extend the main result to characterize the large deviations of Gaussian-mixture extreme value statistics on general convex sets. Our results have implications to contexts arising in rare-event probability estimation and stochastic optimization, since the nature of the dominating point and the rate function suggest importance sampling measures.

math.PR↗

arXiv2018

Approximating Systems Fed by Poisson Processes with Rapidly Changing Arrival Rates

This paper introduces a new asymptotic regime for simplifying stochastic models having non-stationary effects, such as those that arise in the presence of time-of-day effects. This regime describes an operating environment within which the arrival process to a service system has an arrival intensity that is fluctuating rapidly. We show that such a service system is well approximated by the corresponding model in which the arrival process is Poisson with a constant arrival rate. In addition to the basic weak convergence theorem, we also establish a first order correction for the distribution of the cumulative number of arrivals over $[0,t]$, as well as the number-in-system process for an infinite-server queue fed by an arrival process having a rapidly changing arrival rate. This new asymptotic regime provides a second regime within which non-stationary stochastic models can be reasonably approximated by a process with stationary dynamics, thereby complementing the previously studied setting within which rates vary slowly in time.

math.PR↗

arXiv2018

Approximating Performance Measures for Slowly Changing Non-stationary Markov Chains

This paper is concerned with the development of rigorous approximations to various expectations associated with Markov chains and processes having non-stationary transition probabilities. Such non-stationary models arise naturally in contexts in which time-of-day effects or seasonality effects need to be incorporated. Our approximations are valid asymptotically in regimes in which the transition probabilities change slowly over time. Specifically, we develop approximations for the expected infinite horizon discounted reward, the expected reward to the hitting time of a set, the expected reward associated with the state occupied by the chain at time $n$, and the expected cumulative reward over an interval $[0,n]$. In each case, the approximation involves a linear system of equations identical in form to that which one would need to solve to compute the corresponding quantity for a Markov model having stationary transition probabilities. In that sense, the theory provides an approximation no harder to compute than in the traditional stationary context. While most of the theory is developed for finite state Markov chains, we also provide generalizations to continuous state Markov chains, and finite state Markov jump processes in continuous time. In the latter context, one of our approximations coincides with the uniform acceleration asymptotic due to Massey and Whitt (1998).

math.PR↗