arXiv subjects

Harshavardhan Kamarthi

Publications and source records attributed to Harshavardhan Kamarthi.

26 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2021

When in Doubt: Neural Non-Parametric Uncertainty Quantification for Epidemic Forecasting

Accurate and trustworthy epidemic forecasting is an important problem that has impact on public health planning and disease mitigation. Most existing epidemic forecasting models disregard uncertainty quantification, resulting in mis-calibrated predictions. Recent works in deep neural models for uncertainty-aware time-series forecasting also have several limitations; e.g. it is difficult to specify meaningful priors in Bayesian NNs, while methods like deep ensembling are computationally expensive in practice. In this paper, we fill this important gap. We model the forecasting task as a probabilistic generative process and propose a functional neural process model called EPIFNP, which directly models the probability density of the forecast value. EPIFNP leverages a dynamic stochastic correlation graph to model the correlations between sequences in a non-parametric way, and designs different stochastic latent variables to capture functional uncertainty from different perspectives. Our extensive experiments in a real-time flu forecasting setting show that EPIFNP significantly outperforms previous state-of-the-art models in both accuracy and calibration metrics, up to 2.5x in accuracy and 2.4x in calibration. Additionally, due to properties of its generative process,EPIFNP learns the relations between the current season and similar patterns of historical seasons,enabling interpretable forecasts. Beyond epidemic forecasting, the EPIFNP can be of independent interest for advancing principled uncertainty quantification in deep sequential models for predictive analytics

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Selective Intervention Planning using Restless Multi-Armed Bandits to Improve Maternal and Child Health Outcomes

India has a maternal mortality ratio of 113 and child mortality ratio of 2830 per 100,000 live births. Lack of access to preventive care information is a major contributing factor for these deaths, especially in low resource households. We partner with ARMMAN, a non-profit based in India employing a call-based information program to disseminate health-related information to pregnant women and women with recent child deliveries. We analyze call records of over 300,000 women registered in the program created by ARMMAN and try to identify women who might not engage with these call programs that are proven to result in positive health outcomes. We built machine learning based models to predict the long term engagement pattern from call logs and beneficiaries' demographic information, and discuss the applicability of this method in the real world through a pilot validation. Through a pilot service quality improvement study, we show that using our model's predictions to make interventions boosts engagement metrics by 61.37%. We then formulate the intervention planning problem as restless multi-armed bandits (RMABs), and present preliminary results using this approach.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2020

Reinforcement Learning for Unified Allocation and Patrolling in Signaling Games with Uncertainty

Green Security Games (GSGs) have been successfully used in the protection of valuable resources such as fisheries, forests and wildlife. While real-world deployment involves both resource allocation and subsequent coordinated patrolling with communication and real-time, uncertain information, previous game models do not fully address both of these stages simultaneously. Furthermore, adopting existing solution strategies is difficult since they do not scale well for larger, more complex variants of the game models. We therefore first propose a novel GSG model that combines defender allocation, patrolling, real-time drone notification to human patrollers, and drones sending warning signals to attackers. The model further incorporates uncertainty for real-time decision-making within a team of drones and human patrollers. Second, we present CombSGPO, a novel and scalable algorithm based on reinforcement learning, to compute a defender strategy for this game model. CombSGPO performs policy search over a multi-dimensional, discrete action space to compute an allocation strategy that is best suited to a best-response patrolling strategy for the defender, learnt by training a multi-agent Deep Q-Network. We show via experiments that CombSGPO converges to better strategies and is more scalable than comparable approaches. Third, we provide a detailed analysis of the coordination and signaling behavior learnt by CombSGPO, showing group formation between defender resources and patrolling formations based on signaling and notifications between resources. Importantly, we find that strategic signaling emerges in the final learnt strategy. Finally, we perform experiments to evaluate these strategies under different levels of uncertainty.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2020

Missed calls, Automated Calls and Health Support: Using AI to improve maternal health outcomes by increasing program engagement

India accounts for 11% of maternal deaths globally where a woman dies in childbirth every fifteen minutes. Lack of access to preventive care information is a significant problem contributing to high maternal morbidity and mortality numbers, especially in low-income households. We work with ARMMAN, a non-profit based in India, to further the use of call-based information programs by early-on identifying women who might not engage on these programs that are proven to affect health parameters positively.We analyzed anonymized call-records of over 300,000 women registered in an awareness program created by ARMMAN that uses cellphone calls to regularly disseminate health related information. We built robust deep learning based models to predict short term and long term dropout risk from call logs and beneficiaries' demographic information. Our model performs 13% better than competitive baselines for short-term forecasting and 7% better for long term forecasting. We also discuss the applicability of this method in the real world through a pilot validation that uses our method to perform targeted interventions.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2020

Influence maximization in unknown social networks: Learning Policies for Effective Graph Sampling

A serious challenge when finding influential actors in real-world social networks is the lack of knowledge about the structure of the underlying network. Current state-of-the-art methods rely on hand-crafted sampling algorithms; these methods sample nodes and their neighbours in a carefully constructed order and choose opinion leaders from this discovered network to maximize influence spread in the (unknown) complete network. In this work, we propose a reinforcement learning framework for network discovery that automatically learns useful node and graph representations that encode important structural properties of the network. At training time, the method identifies portions of the network such that the nodes selected from this sampled subgraph can effectively influence nodes in the complete network. The realization of such transferable network structure based adaptable policies is attributed to the meticulous design of the framework that encodes relevant node and graph signatures driven by an appropriate reward scheme. We experiment with real-world social networks from four different domains and show that the policies learned by our RL agent provide a 10-36% improvement over the current state-of-the-art method.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2020

Integrating Lexical Knowledge in Word Embeddings using Sprinkling and Retrofitting

Neural network based word embeddings, such as Word2Vec and GloVe, are purely data driven in that they capture the distributional information about words from the training corpus. Past works have attempted to improve these embeddings by incorporating semantic knowledge from lexical resources like WordNet. Some techniques like retrofitting modify word embeddings in the post-processing stage while some others use a joint learning approach by modifying the objective function of neural networks. In this paper, we discuss two novel approaches for incorporating semantic knowledge into word embeddings. In the first approach, we take advantage of Levy et al's work which showed that using SVD based methods on co-occurrence matrix provide similar performance to neural network based embeddings. We propose a 'sprinkling' technique to add semantic relations to the co-occurrence matrix directly before factorization. In the second approach, WordNet similarity scores are used to improve the retrofitting method. We evaluate the proposed methods in both intrinsic and extrinsic tasks and observe significant improvements over the baselines in many of the datasets.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2019

Discovering hierarchies using Imitation Learning from hierarchy aware policies

Learning options that allow agents to exhibit temporally higher order behavior has proven to be useful in increasing exploration, reducing sample complexity and for various transfer scenarios. Deep Discovery of Options (DDO) is a generative algorithm that learns a hierarchical policy along with options directly from expert trajectories. We perform a qualitative and quantitative analysis of options inferred from DDO in different domains. To this end, we suggest different value metrics like option termination condition, hinge value function error and KL-Divergence based distance metric to compare different methods. Analyzing the termination condition of the options and number of time steps the options were run revealed that the options were terminating prematurely. We suggest modifications which can be incorporated easily and alleviates the problem of shorter options and a collapse of options to the same mode.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2019

Hierarchical Genetic Algorithms with evolving objective functions

We propose a framework of genetic algorithms which use multi-level hierarchies to solve an optimization problem by searching over the space of simpler objective functions. We solve a variant of Travelling Salesman Problem called \texttt{soft-TSP} and show that when the constraints on the overall objective function are changed the algorithm adapts to churn out solutions for the changed objective. We use this idea to speed up learning by systematically altering the constraints to find a more globally optimal solution. We also use this framework to solve polynomial regression where the actual objective function is unknown but searching over space of available objective functions yields a good approximate solution.

cs.NE↗