SearcharxivSearch

arXiv subjects

Hasan Arkadaş

Publications and source records attributed to Hasan Arkadaş.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

Structural Pass Analysis in Football: Learning Pass Archetypes and Tactical Impact from Spatio-Temporal Tracking Data

The increasing availability of spatio-temporal tracking data has created new opportunities for analysing tactical behaviour in football. However, many existing approaches evaluate passes primarily through outcome-based metrics such as scoring probability or possession value, providing limited insight into how passes influence the defensive organisation of the opponent. This paper introduces a structural framework for analysing football passes based on their interaction with defensive structure. Using synchronised tracking/event data, we derive three complementary structural metrics, Line Bypass Score, Space Gain Metric, and Structural Disruption Index, that quantify how passes alter the spatial configuration of defenders. These metrics are combined into a composite measure termed Tactical Impact Value (TIV), which captures the structural influence of individual passes. Using tracking and event data from the 2022 FIFA World Cup, we analyse structural passing behaviour across multiple tactical levels. Unsupervised clustering of structural features reveals four interpretable pass archetypes: circulatory, destabilising, line-breaking, and space-expanding passes. Empirical results show that passes with higher TIV are significantly more likely to lead to territorial progression, particularly entries into the final third and penalty box. Spatial, team-level analyses further reveal distinctive structural passing styles across teams, while player-level analysis highlights the role of build-up defenders as key drivers of structural progression. In addition, analysing passer-receiver interactions identifies structurally impactful passing partnerships that amplify tactical progression within teams. Overall, the proposed framework demonstrates how structural representations derived from tracking data can reveal interpretable tactical patterns in football.

cs.LG

What If They Took the Shot? A Hierarchical Bayesian Framework for Counterfactual Expected Goals

This study develops a hierarchical Bayesian framework that integrates expert domain knowledge to quantify player-specific effects in expected goals (xG) estimation, addressing a limitation of standard models that treat all players as identical finishers. Using 9,970 shots from StatsBomb's 2015-16 data and Football Manager 2017 ratings, we combine Bayesian logistic regression with informed priors to stabilise player-level estimates, especially for players with few shots. The hierarchical model reduces posterior uncertainty relative to weak priors and achieves strong external validity: hierarchical and baseline predictions correlate at R2 = 0.75, while an XGBoost benchmark validated against StatsBomb xG reaches R2 = 0.833. The model uncovers interpretable specialisation profiles, including one-on-one finishing (Aguero, Suarez, Belotti, Immobile, Martial), long-range shooting (Pogba), and first-touch execution (Insigne, Salah, Gameiro). It also identifies latent ability in underperforming players such as Immobile and Belotti. The framework supports counterfactual "what-if" analysis by reallocating shots between players under identical contexts. Case studies show that Sansone would generate +2.2 xG from Berardi's chances, driven largely by high-pressure situations, while Vardy-Giroud substitutions reveal strong asymmetry: replacing Vardy with Giroud results in a large decline (about -7 xG), whereas the reverse substitution has only a small effect (about -1 xG). This work provides an uncertainty-aware tool for player evaluation, recruitment, and tactical planning, and offers a general approach for domains where individual skill and contextual factors jointly shape performance.

eess.SP

Through the Gaps: Uncovering Tactical Line-Breaking Passes with Clustering

Line-breaking passes (LBPs) are crucial tactical actions in football, allowing teams to penetrate defensive lines and access high-value spaces. In this study, we present an unsupervised, clustering-based framework for detecting and analysing LBPs using synchronised event and tracking data from elite matches. Our approach models opponent team shape through vertical spatial segmentation and identifies passes that disrupt defensive lines within open play. Beyond detection, we introduce several tactical metrics, including the space build-up ratio (SBR) and two chain-based variants, LBPCh$^1$ and LBPCh$^2$, which quantify the effectiveness of LBPs in generating immediate or sustained attacking threats. We evaluate these metrics across teams and players in the 2022 FIFA World Cup, revealing stylistic differences in vertical progression and structural disruption. The proposed methodology is explainable, scalable, and directly applicable to modern performance analysis and scouting workflows.

cs.LG