arXiv subjects

Hedderik van Rijn

Publications and source records attributed to Hedderik van Rijn.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Corpus Prevalence of Multiple-Choice Question Options

In recent years, corpus-driven AI methods, such as Large Language Models (LLMs), have seen widespread use in education. While on the surface their abilities look promising for tasks ranging from generating assessment materials to simulating student performance, we should be aware of the subtle nuances of their frequentist nature that might be affecting their behaviour. In this work, we focus on the aspect of corpus frequency in the context of creating high-quality Multiple Choice Questions (MCQs), specifically asking: What if corpus prevalence were enough to identify the correct answer to an MCQ? We propose a computational method of assessing corpus prevalence of MCQ options in large text corpora leveraging textual embeddings using both expert- and machine-generated MCQ sets. The key finding, across three large question sets, is that correct answers, independently of the question stem, are significantly more available than incorrect options. Specifically, using Wikipedia as the retrieval corpus, we find that always selecting the most prevalent option leads to scores up to 9.0% above the random-guess baseline. We also find that MCQ distractors generated by LLMs often show similar patterns of prevalence compared to expert-created options, despite the LLMs' frequentist nature and their training on large collections of textual data. Moreover, we find that corpus prevalence does not necessarily correlate with how recognisable terms are to humans. This highlights the need to better understand how corpora are used in AI-driven methods for education, whether applied directly or indirectly via LLMs.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

NLP Methods May Actually Be Better Than Professors at Estimating Question Difficulty

Estimating the difficulty of exam questions is essential for developing good exams, but professors are not always good at this task. We compare various Large Language Model-based methods with three professors in their ability to estimate what percentage of students will give correct answers on True/False exam questions in the areas of Neural Networks and Machine Learning. Our results show that the professors have limited ability to distinguish between easy and difficult questions and that they are outperformed by directly asking Gemini 2.5 to solve this task. Yet, we obtained even better results using uncertainties of the LLMs solving the questions in a supervised learning setting, using only 42 training samples. We conclude that supervised learning using LLM uncertainty can help professors better estimate the difficulty of exam questions, improving the quality of assessment.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Are You Doubtful? Oh, It Might Be Difficult Then! Exploring the Use of Model Uncertainty for Question Difficulty Estimation

In an educational setting, an estimate of the difficulty of multiple-choice questions (MCQs), a commonly used strategy to assess learning progress, constitutes very useful information for both teachers and students. Since human assessment is costly from multiple points of view, automatic approaches to MCQ item difficulty estimation are investigated, yielding however mixed success until now. Our approach to this problem takes a different angle from previous work: asking various Large Language Models to tackle the questions included in three different MCQ datasets, we leverage model uncertainty to estimate item difficulty. By using both model uncertainty features as well as textual features in a Random Forest regressor, we show that uncertainty features contribute substantially to difficulty prediction, where difficulty is inversely proportional to the number of students who can correctly answer a question. In addition to showing the value of our approach, we also observe that our model achieves state-of-the-art results on the USMLE and CMCQRD publicly available datasets.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Can Model Uncertainty Function as a Proxy for Multiple-Choice Question Item Difficulty?

Estimating the difficulty of multiple-choice questions would be great help for educators who must spend substantial time creating and piloting stimuli for their tests, and for learners who want to practice. Supervised approaches to difficulty estimation have yielded to date mixed results. In this contribution we leverage an aspect of generative large models which might be seen as a weakness when answering questions, namely their uncertainty, and exploit it towards exploring correlations between two different metrics of uncertainty, and the actual student response distribution. While we observe some present but weak correlations, we also discover that the models' behaviour is different in the case of correct vs wrong answers, and that correlations differ substantially according to the different question types which are included in our fine-grained, previously unused dataset of 451 questions from a Biopsychology course. In discussing our findings, we also suggest potential avenues to further leverage model uncertainty as an additional proxy for item difficulty.

cs.CL↗