arXiv subjects

Heidi A. Hanson

Publications and source records attributed to Heidi A. Hanson.

9 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Ground-Level Near Real-Time Modeling for PM2.5 Pollution Prediction

Air pollution is a worldwide public health threat that can cause or exacerbate many illnesses, including respiratory disease, cardiovascular disease, and some cancers. However, epidemiological studies and public health decision-making are stymied by the inability to assess pollution exposure impacts in near real time. To address this, developing accurate digital twins of environmental pollutants will enable timely data-driven analytics - a crucial step in modernizing health policy and decision-making. Although other models predict and analyze fine particulate matter exposure, they often rely on modeled input data sources and data streams that are not regularly updated. Another challenge stems from current models relying on predefined grids. In contrast, our deep-learning approach interpolates surface level PM2.5 concentrations between sparsely distributed US EPA monitoring stations in a grid-free manner. By incorporating additional, readily available datasets - including topographic, meteorological, and land-use data - we improve its ability to predict pollutant concentrations with high spatial and temporal resolution. This enables model querying at any spatial location for rapid predictions without computing over the entire grid. To ensure robustness, we randomize spatial sampling during training to enable our model to perform well in both dense and sparse monitored regions. This model is well suited for near real-time deployment because its lightweight architecture allows for fast updates in response to streaming data. Moreover, model flexibility and scalability allow it to be adapted to various geographical contexts and scales, making it a practical tool for delivering accurate and timely air quality assessments. Its capacity to rapidly evaluate multiple scenarios can be especially valuable for decision-making during public health crises.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2026

Areal Disaggregation: A Small Area Estimation Perspective

Producing reliable estimates of health and demographic indicators at fine areal scales is crucial for examining heterogeneity and supporting localized health policy. However, many surveys release outcomes only at coarser administrative levels, thereby limiting their relevance for decision-making. We propose a fully Bayesian, single-stage spatial modeling framework for area-level disaggregation that generates fine-scale estimates of indicators directly from coarsely aggregated survey data. By defining a latent spatial process at the target resolution and linking it to observed outcomes through an aggregation step, the framework adopts small-area estimation techniques while incorporating covariates and delivering coherent uncertainty quantification. The proposed methods are implemented with inlabru to achieve computational efficiency. We evaluate performance through a simulation study of general fertility rates in Kenya to demonstrate the models' ability to recover fine-scale variation across diverse data-generating scenarios. We further apply the framework to two national surveys to produce district-level fertility estimates from the 2022 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey and, more importantly, district-level indicators for unpaid care and domestic work and mass media usage from the 2021 Kenya Time Use Survey.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Centralized Health and Exposomic Resource (C-HER): Analytic and AI-Ready Data for External Exposomic Research

The Centralized Health and Exposomic Resource (C-HER) project has identified, profiled, spatially indexed, and stored over 30 external exposomic datasets. The resulting analytic and AI-ready data (AAIRD) provides a significant opportunity to develop an integrated picture of the exposome for health research. The exposome is a conceptual framework designed to guide the study of the complex environmental and genetic factors that together shape human health. Few composite measures of the exposome exist due to the high dimensionality of exposure data, multimodal data sources, and varying spatiotemporal scales. We develop a data engineering solution that overcomes the challenges of spatio-temporal linkage in this field. We provide examples of how environmental data can be combined to characterize a region, model air pollution, or provide indicators for cancer research. The development of AAIRD will allow future studies to use ML and deep learning methods to generate spatial and contextual exposure data for disease prediction.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2025

Can human clinical rationales improve the performance and explainability of clinical text classification models?

AI-driven clinical text classification is vital for explainable automated retrieval of population-level health information. This work investigates whether human-based clinical rationales can serve as additional supervision to improve both performance and explainability of transformer-based models that automatically encode clinical documents. We analyzed 99,125 human-based clinical rationales that provide plausible explanations for primary cancer site diagnoses, using them as additional training samples alongside 128,649 electronic pathology reports to evaluate transformer-based models for extracting primary cancer sites. We also investigated sufficiency as a way to measure rationale quality for pre-selecting rationales. Our results showed that clinical rationales as additional training data can improve model performance in high-resource scenarios but produce inconsistent behavior when resources are limited. Using sufficiency as an automatic metric to preselect rationales also leads to inconsistent results. Importantly, models trained on rationales were consistently outperformed by models trained on additional reports instead. This suggests that clinical rationales don't consistently improve model performance and are outperformed by simply using more reports. Therefore, if the goal is optimizing accuracy, annotation efforts should focus on labeling more reports rather than creating rationales. However, if explainability is the priority, training models on rationale-supplemented data may help them better identify rationale-like features. We conclude that using clinical rationales as additional training data results in smaller performance improvements and only slightly better explainability (measured as average token-level rationale coverage) compared to training on additional reports.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Identifying Spatiotemporal Patterns in Opioid Vulnerability: Investigating the Links Between Disability, Prescription Opioids and Opioid-Related Mortality

The opioid crisis remains one of the most daunting and complex public health problems in the United States. This study investigates the national epidemic by analyzing vulnerability profiles of three key factors: opioid-related mortality rates, opioid prescription dispensing rates, and disability rank ordered rates. This study utilizes county level data, spanning the years 2014 through 2020, on the rates of opioid-related mortality, opioid prescription dispensing, and disability. To successfully estimate and predict trends in these opioid-related factors, we augment the Kalman Filter with a novel spatial component. To define opioid vulnerability profiles, we create heat maps of our filter's predicted rates across the nation's counties and identify the hotspots. In this context, hotspots are defined on a year-by-year basis as counties with rates in the top 5 percent nationally. Our spatial Kalman filter demonstrates strong predictive performance. From 2014 to 2018, these predictions highlight consistent spatiotemporal patterns across all three factors, with Appalachia distinguished as the nation's most vulnerable region. Starting in 2019 however, the dispensing rate profiles undergo a dramatic and chaotic shift. The initial primary drivers of opioid abuse in the Appalachian region were likely prescription opioids; however, it now appears that abuse is sustained by illegal drugs. Additionally, we find that the disabled subpopulation may be more at risk of opioid-related mortality than the general population. Public health initiatives must extend beyond controlling prescription practices to address the transition to and impact of illicit drug use.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2025

Data Assimilation for Robust UQ Within Agent-Based Simulation on HPC Systems

Agent-based simulation provides a powerful tool for in silico system modeling. However, these simulations do not provide built-in methods for uncertainty quantification (UQ). Within these types of models a typical approach to UQ is to run multiple realizations of the model then compute aggregate statistics. This approach is limited due to the compute time required for a solution. When faced with an emerging biothreat, public health decisions need to be made quickly and solutions for integrating near real-time data with analytic tools are needed. We propose an integrated Bayesian UQ framework for agent-based models based on sequential Monte Carlo sampling. Given streaming or static data about the evolution of an emerging pathogen, this Bayesian framework provides a distribution over the parameters governing the spread of a disease through a population. These estimates of the spread of a disease may be provided to public health agencies seeking to abate the spread. By coupling agent-based simulations with Bayesian modeling in a data assimilation, our proposed framework provides a powerful tool for modeling dynamical systems in silico. We propose a method which reduces model error and provides a range of realistic possible outcomes. Moreover, our method addresses two primary limitations of ABMs: the lack of UQ and an inability to assimilate data. Our proposed framework combines the flexibility of an agent-based model with UQ provided by the Bayesian paradigm in a workflow which scales well to HPC systems. We provide algorithmic details and results on a simulated outbreak with both static and streaming data.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2025

Global explainability of a deep abstaining classifier

We present a global explainability method to characterize sources of errors in the histology prediction task of our real-world multitask convolutional neural network (MTCNN)-based deep abstaining classifier (DAC), for automated annotation of cancer pathology reports from NCI-SEER registries. Our classifier was trained and evaluated on 1.04 million hand-annotated samples and makes simultaneous predictions of cancer site, subsite, histology, laterality, and behavior for each report. The DAC framework enables the model to abstain on ambiguous reports and/or confusing classes to achieve a target accuracy on the retained (non-abstained) samples, but at the cost of decreased coverage. Requiring 97% accuracy on the histology task caused our model to retain only 22% of all samples, mostly the less ambiguous and common classes. Local explainability with the GradInp technique provided a computationally efficient way of obtaining contextual reasoning for thousands of individual predictions. Our method, involving dimensionality reduction of approximately 13000 aggregated local explanations, enabled global identification of sources of errors as hierarchical complexity among classes, label noise, insufficient information, and conflicting evidence. This suggests several strategies such as exclusion criteria, focused annotation, and reduced penalties for errors involving hierarchically related classes to iteratively improve our DAC in this complex real-world implementation.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Enhancing Diagnosis through AI-driven Analysis of Reflectance Confocal Microscopy

Reflectance Confocal Microscopy (RCM) is a non-invasive imaging technique used in biomedical research and clinical dermatology. It provides virtual high-resolution images of the skin and superficial tissues, reducing the need for physical biopsies. RCM employs a laser light source to illuminate the tissue, capturing the reflected light to generate detailed images of microscopic structures at various depths. Recent studies explored AI and machine learning, particularly CNNs, for analyzing RCM images. Our study proposes a segmentation strategy based on textural features to identify clinically significant regions, empowering dermatologists in effective image interpretation and boosting diagnostic confidence. This approach promises to advance dermatological diagnosis and treatment.

eess.IV↗

arXiv2024

Topological Interpretability for Deep-Learning

With the growing adoption of AI-based systems across everyday life, the need to understand their decision-making mechanisms is correspondingly increasing. The level at which we can trust the statistical inferences made from AI-based decision systems is an increasing concern, especially in high-risk systems such as criminal justice or medical diagnosis, where incorrect inferences may have tragic consequences. Despite their successes in providing solutions to problems involving real-world data, deep learning (DL) models cannot quantify the certainty of their predictions. These models are frequently quite confident, even when their solutions are incorrect. This work presents a method to infer prominent features in two DL classification models trained on clinical and non-clinical text by employing techniques from topological and geometric data analysis. We create a graph of a model's feature space and cluster the inputs into the graph's vertices by the similarity of features and prediction statistics. We then extract subgraphs demonstrating high-predictive accuracy for a given label. These subgraphs contain a wealth of information about features that the DL model has recognized as relevant to its decisions. We infer these features for a given label using a distance metric between probability measures, and demonstrate the stability of our method compared to the LIME and SHAP interpretability methods. This work establishes that we may gain insights into the decision mechanism of a DL model. This method allows us to ascertain if the model is making its decisions based on information germane to the problem or identifies extraneous patterns within the data.

stat.ML↗