arXiv subjects

Heidi Heinrichs

Publications and source records attributed to Heidi Heinrichs.

18 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Which Top Energy-Intensive Manufacturing Countries Can Compete in a Renewable Energy Future?

In a world increasingly powered by renewables and aiming for greenhouse gas-neutral industrial production, the future competitiveness of todays top manufacturing countries is questioned. This study applies detailed energy system modeling to quantify the Renewable Pull, an incentive for industry relocation exerted by countries with favorable renewable conditions. Results reveal that the Renewable Pull is not a cross-industrial phenomenon but strongly depends on the relationship between energy costs and transport costs. The intensity of the Renewable Pull varies, with China, India, and Japan facing a significantly stronger effect than Germany and the United States. Incorporating national capital cost assumptions proves critical, reducing Germanys Renewable Pull by a factor of six and positioning it as the second least affected top manufacturing country after Saudi Arabia. Using Germany as a case study, the analysis moreover illustrates that targeted import strategies, especially within the EU, can nearly eliminate the Renewable Pull, offering policymakers clear options for risk mitigation.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2026

Automated Extraction of Techno-Economic Data from 76,000 Energy System Studies

Energy system models guide societally important decisions, but their credibility rests on quantitative assumptions that are difficult to source and audit. Meta-analyses can improve transparency and modeling practices, but the rapid growth of publications makes manual information extraction increasingly impractical. Consequently, databases are updated infrequently and efforts are often duplicated across research groups. Here, we demonstrate the highly accurate automated extraction of quantitative information from 76,000 energy system studies published since 2010. We compile 3.2 million structured quantitative data points together with 20 million associated metadata entries, spanning a broad spectrum of technologies, methodological approaches and system characteristics. Beyond providing input data for models, the resulting FAIR database make the energy systems literature itself analysable. We show where academic assumptions diverge from empirical observed data, and how research priorities vary at scale across technologies, regions and time. To facilitate broad use within the community, the database is provided through an interactive dashboard, enabling users to filter, analyse and download data according to their specific research needs.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Materealistic? How European energy system models exceed raw material reserves

Decarbonising energy systems reduces emissions and fossil fuel dependency, but expanding renewables increases demands for critical raw materials. Most energy system models, however, neglect material demands, putting the material feasibility of energy scenarios at question. We combine a systematic review of 59 highly decarbonised European energy system modelling studies with a quantitative ex-post assessment of material demands for 5 key technologies and 19 materials. We find that material demands exceed Europe's population-based shares of current global reserves for seven materials (Ga, In, Ir, Te; less pronounced for Ag, Se, V), in particular if multiple sectors of the energy system are considered. Competing non-energy demand further amplifies the scarcity, while technological innovation can either alleviate or intensify it. We conclude that energy efficiency, recycling, expanding reserves and technological innovation may only partly address the identified shortages and call for energy sufficiency measures to achieve sustainability in the energy-material nexus.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2026

Stable and Renewable: Assessing the Reliability of a Fully Renewable European Energy System

The transformation of the energy system has raised concerns about the reliability of fully renewable energy systems. We address this question for a 2050 European energy system using an economically optimal adequacy assessment. Our results show that a cost-optimal, fully renewable European system can be as reliable as a fossil-based one, with an average loss of load of only 0.03% due to variability in renewable generation. Outages primarily affect industrial and service sectors, while household supply remains largely uninterrupted. Regional differences in supply security emerge, with outages concentrated in countries with a low Value of Lost Load (VoLL). We demonstrate that system reliability can be fully ensured at negligible additional cost (+0.17%) by modestly increasing hydrogen turbine (+10%) and battery capacities (+15%) beyond the cost-optimal levels. We conclude that well-designed renewable energy systems are stable, with hydrogen-based backup being a key enabler of reliability.

math.OC↗

arXiv2026

Robust Capacity Expansion Modelling for Renewable Energy Systems

Future greenhouse gas neutral energy systems will be dominated by renewable energy technologies providing variable supply subject to uncertain weather conditions. For this setting, we propose an algorithm for capacity expansion planning: We evaluate solutions optimised on a single years' data under different input weather years, and iteratively modify solutions whenever supply gaps are detected. These modifications lead to solutions with sufficient capacities to overcome periods of cold dark lulls and seasonal demand/supply fluctuations. A computational study on a German energy system model for 40 operating years shows that preventing supply gaps, i.e. finding a robust system, increases the total annual cost by 1.6-2.9%. In comparison, non-robust systems display loss of load close to 50% of total demand during some periods. Results underline the importance of assessing the feasibility of energy system models using atypical time-series, combining dark lull and cold period effects.

math.OC↗

arXiv2025

Impacts of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection on Renewable Energy Systems

Climate change is one of the 21st centurys major challenges. However, the progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions is perceived as being too slow. Hence, more radical technologies such as stratospheric aerosol injection are entering discussions to limit climate change. This study presents a methodology for evaluating the effects of injecting 20Mt of SO$_2$ into the atmosphere annually on the global radiative balance, photovoltaic potentials, and renewable energy systems under a targeted temperature reduction of 2°C. Results show that the average annual reduction of PV potentials ranges from 0.25% to 4% up to 12% in Northern Europe during summer. The modeled renewable energy systems largely absorb these reductions resulting in minor capacity shifts with larger changes confined to a few systems. The results show that the inherent flexibility of large scale renewable energy systems helps mitigating changes in cost, but understanding this flexibility is crucial to avoid errors in design.

physics.comp-ph↗

arXiv2025

Critical Iridium Demands arising from future Expansion of Proton Exchange Membrane Electrolysis

Proton exchange membrane electrolysis (PEMEL) is a key technology for producing green hydrogen, but its scalability is limited by the use of scarce materials, particularly iridium. Iridium oxide, the preferred anode catalyst in PEMEL, offers exceptional stability but is produced only as a by-product of platinum mining, with annual output around 7.5 tons. This study estimates future iridium demand for PEMEL under various deployment scenarios and technological advances. Results show that meeting net zero targets will require both significant improvements in catalyst efficiency and access to roughly 30\% of global iridium production annually. Supply shortages could arise as early as 2030, earlier than previously anticipated. The analysis also reveals that long-term iridium needs beyond 2040 are significantly underestimated. These findings underscore the urgent need for innovation in material efficiency and recycling, and the importance of integrating resource constraints into energy policy and technology planning to ensure a sustainable hydrogen transition.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2025

Energy Storage Autonomy in Renewable Energy Systems Through Hydrogen Salt Caverns

The expansion of renewable energy sources leads to volatility in electricity generation within energy systems. Subsurface storage of hydrogen in salt caverns can play an important role in long-term energy storage, but their global potential is not fully understood. This study investigates the global status quo and how much hydrogen salt caverns can contribute to stabilizing future renewable energy systems. A global geological suitability and land eligibility analysis for salt cavern placement is conducted and compared with the derived long-term storage needs of renewable energy systems. Results show that hydrogen salt caverns can balance between 43% and 66% of the global electricity demand and exist in North America, Europe, China, and Australia. By sharing the salt cavern potential with neighboring countries, up to 85% of the global electricity demand can be stabilized by salt caverns. Therefore, global hydrogen can play a significant role in stabilizing renewable energy systems.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2025

The Striking Impact of Natural Hazard Risk on Global Green Hydrogen Cost

Due to climate change, natural hazards that affect energy infrastructure will become more frequent in the future. However, to incorporate natural hazard risk into infrastructure investment decisions, we develop an approach to translate this risk into discount rates. Thus, our newly developed discount rate approach incorporates both economic risk and natural hazard risk. To illustrate the impact of including the risk of natural hazards, we apply country-specific discount rates for hydrogen production costs. The country-specific relative difference in hydrogen generation cost ranges from a 96% surplus in the Philippines to a -63% cost reduction in Kyrgyzstan compared to a discount rate that only consists of economic risks. The inclusion of natural hazard risk changes the cost ranking of technologies as outcome of energy system models and thus policy recommendations. The derived discount rates for 254 countries worldwide are published in this publication for further use.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2025

Towards high resolution, validated and open global wind power assessments

Wind power is expected to play a crucial role in future net-zero energy systems, but wind power simulations to support deployment strategies vary drastically in their results, hindering reliable design decisions. Therefore, we present a transparent, open source, validated and evaluated, global wind power simulation tool ETHOS.RESKit.Wind with high spatial resolution and customizable designs for both onshore and offshore wind turbines. The tool provides a comprehensive validation and calibration procedure using over 16 million global measurements from metrerological masts and wind turbine sites. We achieve a global average capacity factor mean error of 0.006 and Pearson correlation of 0.865. In addition, we evaluate its performance against several aggregated and statistical sources of wind power generation. The release of ETHOS.RESKit.Wind is a step towards a fully open source and open data approach to accurate wind power modeling by incorporating the most comprehensive simulation advances in one model.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2024

High-Resolution Rooftop-PV Potential Assessment for a Resilient Energy System in Ukraine

Rooftop photovoltaic (RTPV) systems are essential for building a decarbonized and, due to its decentralized structure, more resilient energy system, and are particularly important for Ukraine, where recent conflicts have damaged more than half of its electricity and heat supply capacity. Favorable solar irradiation conditions make Ukraine a strong candidate for large-scale PV deployment, but effective policy requires detailed data on spatial and temporal generation potential. This study fills the data gap by using open-source satellite building footprint data corrected with high-resolution data from eastern Germany. This approach allowed accurate estimates of rooftop area and PV capacity and generation across Ukraine, with simulations revealing a capacity potential of 238.8 GW and a generation potential of 290 TWh/a excluding north-facing. The majority of this potential is located in oblasts (provinces) across the country with large cities such as Donetsk, Dnipro or Kyiv and surroundings. These results, validated against previous studies and available as open data, confirm Ukraine's significant potential for RTPV, supporting both energy resilience and climate goals.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2024

Mapping Local Green Hydrogen Cost-Potentials by a Multidisciplinary Approach

For fast-tracking climate change response, green hydrogen is key for achieving greenhouse gas neutral energy systems. Especially Sub-Saharan Africa can benefit from it enabling an increased access to clean energy through utilizing its beneficial conditions for renewable energies. However, developing green hydrogen strategies for Sub-Saharan Africa requires highly detailed and consistent information ranging from technical, environmental, economic, and social dimensions, which is currently lacking in literature. Therefore, this paper provides a comprehensive novel approach embedding the required range of disciplines to analyze green hydrogen cost-potentials in Sub-Saharan Africa. This approach stretches from a dedicated land eligibility based on local preferences, a location specific renewable energy simulation, locally derived sustainable groundwater limitations under climate change, an optimization of local hydrogen energy systems, and a socio-economic indicator-based impact analysis. The capability of the approach is shown for case study regions in Sub-Saharan Africa highlighting the need for a unified, interdisciplinary approach.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2024

Global Shipyard Capacities Limiting the Ramp-Up of Global Hydrogen Transport

Decarbonizing the global energy system requires significant expansions of renewable energy technologies. Given that cost-effective renewable sources are not necessarily situated in proximity to the largest energy demand centers globally, the maritime transportation of low-carbon energy carriers, such as renewable-based hydrogen or ammonia, will be needed. However, whether existent shipyards possess the required capacity to provide the necessary global fleet has not yet been answered. Therefore, this study estimates global tanker demand based on projections for global hydrogen demand, while comparing these projections with historic shipyard production. Our findings reveal a potential bottleneck until 2033-2039 if relying on liquefied hydrogen exclusively. This bottleneck could be circumvented by increasing local hydrogen production, utilizing pipelines, or liquefied ammonia as an energy carrier for hydrogen. Furthermore, the regional concentration of shipyard locations raises concerns about diversification. Increasing demand for container vessels could substantially hinder the scale-up of maritime hydrogen transport.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2023

Green Hydrogen Cost-Potentials for Global Trade

Green hydrogen is expected to be traded globally in future greenhouse gas neutral energy systems. However, there is still a lack of temporally- and spatially-explicit cost-potentials for green hydrogen considering the full process chain, which are necessary for creating effective global strategies. Therefore, this study provides such detailed cost-potential-curves for 28 selected countries worldwide until 2050, using an optimizing energy systems approach based on open-field photovoltaics (PV) and onshore wind. The results reveal huge hydrogen potentials (>1,500 PWhLHV/a) and 79 PWhLHV/a at costs below 2.30 EUR/kg in 2050, dominated by solar-rich countries in Africa and the Middle East. Decentralized PV-based hydrogen production, even in wind-rich countries, is always preferred. Supplying sustainable water for hydrogen production is needed while having minor impact on hydrogen cost. Additional costs for imports from democratic regions are only total 7% higher. Hence, such regions could boost the geostrategic security of supply for greenhouse gas neutral energy systems.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2021

Exploring the trilemma of cost-efficient, equitable and publicly acceptable onshore wind expansion planning

Onshore wind development has historically focused on cost-efficiency, which may lead to inequitable turbine distributions and public resistance due to landscape impacts. Using a multi-criteria planning approach, we show how onshore wind capacity targets can be achieved by 2050 in a cost-efficient, equitable and publicly acceptable way. For the case study of Germany, we build on the existing turbine stock and use open data on technically feasible turbine locations and scenicness of landscapes to plan the optimal expansion. The analysis shows that while the trade-off between cost-efficiency and public acceptance is rather weak with about 15% higher costs or scenicness, an equitable distribution has a large impact on these criteria. Although the onshore wind capacity per inhabitant could be distributed about 220% more equitably through the expansion, equity would severely limit planning flexibility by 2050. Our analysis assists stakeholders in resolving the onshore wind expansion trilemma.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2021

Reviewing methods and assumptions for high-resolution large-scale onshore wind energy potential assessments

The rapid uptake of renewable energy technologies in recent decades has increased the demand of energy researchers, policymakers and energy planners for reliable data on the spatial distribution of their costs and potentials. For onshore wind energy this has resulted in an active research field devoted to analysing these resources for regions, countries or globally. A particular thread of this research attempts to go beyond purely technical or spatial restrictions and determine the realistic, feasible or actual potential for wind energy. Motivated by these developments, this paper reviews methods and assumptions for analysing geographical, technical, economic and, finally, feasible onshore wind potentials. We address each of these potentials in turn, including aspects related to land eligibility criteria, energy meteorology, and technical developments relating to wind turbine characteristics such as power density, specific rotor power and spacing aspects. Economic aspects of potential assessments are central to future deployment and are discussed on a turbine and system level covering levelized costs depending on locations, and the system integration costs which are often overlooked in such analyses. Non-technical approaches include scenicness assessments of the landscape, expert and stakeholder workshops, willingness to pay / accept elicitations and socioeconomic cost-benefit studies. For each of these different potential estimations, the state of the art is critically discussed, with an attempt to derive best practice recommendations and highlight avenues for future research.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2018

Performing energy modelling exercises in a transparent way the issue of data quality in power plant databases

In energy modelling, open data and open source code can help enhance traceability and reproducibility of model exercises which contribute to facilitate controversial debates and improve policy advice. While the availability of open power plant databases increased in recent years, they often differ considerably from each other and their data quality has not been systematically compared to proprietary sources yet. Here, we introduce the python-based "powerplantmatching" (PPM), an open source toolset for cleaning, standardizing and combining multiple power plant databases. We apply it once only with open databases and once with an additional proprietary database in order to discuss and elaborate the issue of data quality, by analysing capacities, countries, fuel types, geographic coordinates and commissioning years for conventional power plants. We find that a derived dataset purely based on open data is not yet on a par with one in which a proprietary database has been added to the matching, even though the statistical values for capacity matched to a large degree with both datasets. When commissioning years are needed for modelling purposes in the final dataset, the proprietary database helps crucially to increase the quality of the derived dataset.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2018

Opening the black box of energy modelling: Strategies and lessons learned

The global energy system is undergoing a major transition, and in energy planning and decision-making across governments, industry and academia, models play a crucial role. Because of their policy relevance and contested nature, the transparency and open availability of energy models and data are of particular importance. Here we provide a practical how-to guide based on the collective experience of members of the Open Energy Modelling Initiative (Openmod). We discuss key steps to consider when opening code and data, including determining intellectual property ownership, choosing a licence and appropriate modelling languages, distributing code and data, and providing support and building communities. After illustrating these decisions with examples and lessons learned from the community, we conclude that even though individual researchers' choices are important, institutional changes are still also necessary for more openness and transparency in energy research.

cs.CY↗