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Heiner Stuckenschmidt

Publications and source records attributed to Heiner Stuckenschmidt.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

Lost in Aggregation: How Benchmarks Overlook Irreplaceable Model Strengths

Tabular machine learning benchmarks typically summarize performance by averaging scores, ranks, or pairwise wins across datasets. Such aggregates are useful for selecting robust default models, but they can obscure a different question: which models are necessary to attain peak performance on particular datasets? We argue that benchmark evaluation should also consider the data-centric peak performance frontier, defined by the best statistically supported performance achieved on each dataset. From this perspective, a model may be irreplaceable, sufficient, redundant, or fallible depending on where it lies on the frontier relative to other models. Applying this framework to the TabArena benchmark, we find that common aggregation metrics are highly correlated and largely measure consistency and avoiding failures, while being much less aligned with dataset-level irreplaceability. Consequently, models performing decently across datasets without ever being the best choice are rewarded while models with unique dataset-specific strengths appear mediocre under aggregation. Hence, benchmark progress should be measured not only by improvements on aggregation metrics but also by whether new models expand the set of attainable peak performances across datasets.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Mind the Long Tail: Understanding the Difficulty of Delay Detection in Business Processes

The early detection of delayed cases in business processes is a critical capability for organizations. Predictive process monitoring (PPM) supports this task by using historical event logs to predict the remaining time of ongoing cases, enabling timely interventions to avoid missed deadlines and service level violations. Although remaining time prediction has advanced considerably through sophisticated deep learning architectures, little is known about the intrinsic difficulty of delay detection itself. Since performance is typically assessed using aggregate metrics, prior work provides limited insight into how models perform across the target distribution, especially on the operationally most critical cases with large delays. In this paper, we address this gap by analyzing the difficulty of delay detection. Across 14 event logs, we show that remaining times are typically strongly right-skewed, with only a small fraction of cases exhibiting large delays. Existing models capture the mode of this distribution well but perform poorly on high-delay cases. We further uncover pronounced heteroscedasticity, showing that predictive uncertainty increases with delay magnitude. Based on these findings, we evaluate approaches to mitigate the imbalance problem, but find only limited benefits, suggesting that the key underlying problem may not be imbalance but higher uncertainty associated with delayed cases. We show that this correlation can be exploited to substantially improve the identification of delayed cases. Overall, our work provides new insights into the sources of difficulty in delay detection and identifies uncertainty-aware modeling as a promising direction for future PPM research.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

Mood Matters: How Syntactic Sensitivity Undermines Safety Alignment

Large language models typically undergo post-training to align them with safety policies but there exist many sophisticated jailbreaks that sidestep established safeguards. For instance, prior work by Andriushchenko et al. (2025) has found that changing the grammatical tense from present to past can be enough to elicit harmful responses. In this work, we uncover a more general failure of non-imperative syntactic forms. We demonstrate that this syntactic vulnerability exists in 16 models up to 70B parameters, using behavioral evaluation. To investigate the root cause, we apply causal mediation analysis, finding that refusal is partially conditioned on upstream syntactic features. By steering these purely syntactic features we are able to trigger and suppress refusal. Finally, we trace this ill-conditioning to linguistically biased post-training data of open-source models and show that increasing syntactic diversity can mitigate the issue. Our findings suggest that current alignment approaches introduce confounders that prevent a pure semantic grounding of the refusal decision.

cs.CL↗
arXiv2026

Temporal Knowledge Graph Forecasting under Distribution Shifts: A Synthetic Evaluation

Temporal knowledge graphs (TKGs) represent evolving relational systems, whose underlying data-generating processes often change over time. Yet, TKG forecasting models are commonly evaluated only on empirical benchmark datasets that provide limited insight into the models' robustness to such distribution shifts. Recognising this issue, we study TKG forecasting under controlled shift environments using a synthetic TKG generator that encodes three temporal and structural properties -- recurrence, homophily, and periodicity -- as data-generating mechanisms. This allows us to evaluate seven forecasting architectures under stationary and shifting regimes. Our experiments suggest that robustness in TKG forecasting is highly signal-dependent. Recurrence-based and periodic regularities are largely recoverable under stationary conditions, and simple memory-based baselines can be competitive when recurrence dominates the data. However, structural breaks reveal limitations in model adaptivity, with shifts in latent entity-community structure posing the strongest challenge in our study. Overall, our findings improve the understanding of the capabilities and limitations of current TKG models confronted with temporal distribution shifts.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2026

TabPrep: Closing the Feature Engineering Gap in Tabular Benchmarks

Progress in tabular machine learning has largely focused on increasingly sophisticated model architectures. At the same time, feature engineering remains a critical yet underexplored component of real-world modeling pipelines that is entirely absent from modern benchmarks, which creates an unquantified evaluation gap. In this work, we introduce TabPrep, a lightweight preprocessing pipeline composed of feature generators that are carefully designed to target three specific structural data patterns. We show that many widely used model classes exhibit predictable blind spots to these patterns and that systematic feature engineering alone can establish new peak performance. Across the TabArena benchmark, integrating TabPrep into model training and tuning consistently improves performance for tree-based, neural, linear, and foundation models, often surpassing gains achieved by model-centric innovations alone. TabPrep outperforms previous automated feature engineering approaches in performance, efficiency, and applicability across datasets, enabling integration into large-scale benchmarks. By releasing TabPrep (see https://github.com/atschalz/tabprep), we enable researchers to integrate feature engineering into their benchmarking setup, filling a longstanding gap in tabular evaluations.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

CountTRuCoLa: Rule Learning for Interpretable Temporal Knowledge Graph Forecasting

We address the task of temporal knowledge graph forecasting with an inherently interpretable method based on symbolic rules. Motivated by recent work proposing a strong baseline based on recurrent facts, our approach learns four simple rule types, including temporal rules with confidence functions that combine both recency and frequency. Evaluated on nine datasets, our method achieves performance that is competitive with state-of-the-art models and outperforms the majority of them, while each prediction remains directly traceable to the rules and observations that produced it. Moreover, our approach remains functional on very large datasets, where other methods encounter runtime or memory failures.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

Rethinking BPS: A Utility-Based Evaluation Framework

Business process simulation (BPS) is a key tool for analyzing and optimizing organizational workflows, supporting decision-making by estimating the impact of process changes. The reliability of such estimates depends on the ability of a BPS model to accurately mimic the process under analysis, making rigorous accuracy evaluation essential. However, the state-of-the-art approach to evaluating BPS models has two key limitations. First, it treats simulation as a forecasting problem, testing whether models can predict unseen future events. This fails to assess how well a model captures the as-is process, particularly when process behavior changes from train to test period. Thus, it becomes difficult to determine whether poor results stem from an inaccurate model or the inherent complexity of the data, such as unpredictable drift. Second, the evaluation approach strongly relies on Earth Mover's Distance-based metrics, which can obscure temporal patterns and thus yield misleading conclusions about simulation quality. To address these issues, we propose a novel framework that evaluates simulation quality based on its ability to generate representative process behavior. Instead of comparing simulated logs to future real-world executions, we evaluate whether predictive process monitoring models trained on simulated data perform comparably to those trained on real data for downstream analysis tasks. Empirical results show that our framework not only helps identify sources of discrepancies but also distinguishes between model accuracy and data complexity, offering a more meaningful way to assess BPS quality.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

A Divide-and-Conquer Approach for Modeling Arrival Times in Business Process Simulation

Business Process Simulation (BPS) is a critical tool for analyzing and improving organizational processes by estimating the impact of process changes. A key component of BPS is the case-arrival model, which determines the pattern of new case entries into a process. Although accurate case-arrival modeling is essential for reliable simulations, as it influences waiting and overall cycle times, existing approaches often rely on oversimplified static distributions of inter-arrival times. These approaches fail to capture the dynamic and temporal complexities inherent in organizational environments, leading to less accurate and reliable outcomes. To address this limitation, we propose Auto Time Kernel Density Estimation (AT-KDE), a divide-and-conquer approach that models arrival times of processes by incorporating global dynamics, day-of-week variations, and intraday distributional changes, ensuring both precision and scalability. Experiments conducted across 20 diverse processes demonstrate that AT-KDE is far more accurate and robust than existing approaches while maintaining sensible execution time efficiency.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2025

Unreflected Use of Tabular Data Repositories Can Undermine Research Quality

Data repositories have accumulated a large number of tabular datasets from various domains. Machine Learning researchers are actively using these datasets to evaluate novel approaches. Consequently, data repositories have an important standing in tabular data research. They not only host datasets but also provide information on how to use them in supervised learning tasks. In this paper, we argue that, despite great achievements in usability, the unreflected usage of datasets from data repositories may have led to reduced research quality and scientific rigor. We present examples from prominent recent studies that illustrate the problematic use of datasets from OpenML, a large data repository for tabular data. Our illustrations help users of data repositories avoid falling into the traps of (1) using suboptimal model selection strategies, (2) overlooking strong baselines, and (3) inappropriate preprocessing. In response, we discuss possible solutions for how data repositories can prevent the inappropriate use of datasets and become the cornerstones for improved overall quality of empirical research studies.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2024

A*Net and NBFNet Learn Negative Patterns on Knowledge Graphs

In this technical report, we investigate the predictive performance differences of a rule-based approach and the GNN architectures NBFNet and A*Net with respect to knowledge graph completion. For the two most common benchmarks, we find that a substantial fraction of the performance difference can be explained by one unique negative pattern on each dataset that is hidden from the rule-based approach. Our findings add a unique perspective on the performance difference of different model classes for knowledge graph completion: Models can achieve a predictive performance advantage by penalizing scores of incorrect facts opposed to providing high scores for correct facts.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2024

Reevaluation of Inductive Link Prediction

Within this paper, we show that the evaluation protocol currently used for inductive link prediction is heavily flawed as it relies on ranking the true entity in a small set of randomly sampled negative entities. Due to the limited size of the set of negatives, a simple rule-based baseline can achieve state-of-the-art results, which simply ranks entities higher based on the validity of their type. As a consequence of these insights, we reevaluate current approaches for inductive link prediction on several benchmarks using the link prediction protocol usually applied to the transductive setting. As some inductive methods suffer from scalability issues when evaluated in this setting, we propose and apply additionally an improved sampling protocol, which does not suffer from the problem mentioned above. The results of our evaluation differ drastically from the results reported in so far.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2024

Fact Probability Vector Based Goal Recognition

We present a new approach to goal recognition that involves comparing observed facts with their expected probabilities. These probabilities depend on a specified goal g and initial state s0. Our method maps these probabilities and observed facts into a real vector space to compute heuristic values for potential goals. These values estimate the likelihood of a given goal being the true objective of the observed agent. As obtaining exact expected probabilities for observed facts in an observation sequence is often practically infeasible, we propose and empirically validate a method for approximating these probabilities. Our empirical results show that the proposed approach offers improved goal recognition precision compared to state-of-the-art techniques while reducing computational complexity.

cs.AI↗
arXiv2024

AgentSimulator: An Agent-based Approach for Data-driven Business Process Simulation

Business process simulation (BPS) is a versatile technique for estimating process performance across various scenarios. Traditionally, BPS approaches employ a control-flow-first perspective by enriching a process model with simulation parameters. Although such approaches can mimic the behavior of centrally orchestrated processes, such as those supported by workflow systems, current control-flow-first approaches cannot faithfully capture the dynamics of real-world processes that involve distinct resource behavior and decentralized decision-making. Recognizing this issue, this paper introduces AgentSimulator, a resource-first BPS approach that discovers a multi-agent system from an event log, modeling distinct resource behaviors and interaction patterns to simulate the underlying process. Our experiments show that AgentSimulator achieves state-of-the-art simulation accuracy with significantly lower computation times than existing approaches while providing high interpretability and adaptability to different types of process-execution scenarios.

cs.MA↗
arXiv2024

Mitigating Information Loss in Tree-Based Reinforcement Learning via Direct Optimization

Reinforcement learning (RL) has seen significant success across various domains, but its adoption is often limited by the black-box nature of neural network policies, making them difficult to interpret. In contrast, symbolic policies allow representing decision-making strategies in a compact and interpretable way. However, learning symbolic policies directly within on-policy methods remains challenging. In this paper, we introduce SYMPOL, a novel method for SYMbolic tree-based on-POLicy RL. SYMPOL employs a tree-based model integrated with a policy gradient method, enabling the agent to learn and adapt its actions while maintaining a high level of interpretability. We evaluate SYMPOL on a set of benchmark RL tasks, demonstrating its superiority over alternative tree-based RL approaches in terms of performance and interpretability. Unlike existing methods, it enables gradient-based, end-to-end learning of interpretable, axis-aligned decision trees within standard on-policy RL algorithms. Therefore, SYMPOL can become the foundation for a new class of interpretable RL based on decision trees. Our implementation is available under: https://github.com/s-marton/sympol

cs.LG↗
arXiv2024

Analytical Uncertainty-Based Loss Weighting in Multi-Task Learning

With the rise of neural networks in various domains, multi-task learning (MTL) gained significant relevance. A key challenge in MTL is balancing individual task losses during neural network training to improve performance and efficiency through knowledge sharing across tasks. To address these challenges, we propose a novel task-weighting method by building on the most prevalent approach of Uncertainty Weighting and computing analytically optimal uncertainty-based weights, normalized by a softmax function with tunable temperature. Our approach yields comparable results to the combinatorially prohibitive, brute-force approach of Scalarization while offering a more cost-effective yet high-performing alternative. We conduct an extensive benchmark on various datasets and architectures. Our method consistently outperforms six other common weighting methods. Furthermore, we report noteworthy experimental findings for the practical application of MTL. For example, larger networks diminish the influence of weighting methods, and tuning the weight decay has a low impact compared to the learning rate.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2024

A Data-Centric Perspective on Evaluating Machine Learning Models for Tabular Data

Tabular data is prevalent in real-world machine learning applications, and new models for supervised learning of tabular data are frequently proposed. Comparative studies assessing the performance of models typically consist of model-centric evaluation setups with overly standardized data preprocessing. This paper demonstrates that such model-centric evaluations are biased, as real-world modeling pipelines often require dataset-specific preprocessing and feature engineering. Therefore, we propose a data-centric evaluation framework. We select 10 relevant datasets from Kaggle competitions and implement expert-level preprocessing pipelines for each dataset. We conduct experiments with different preprocessing pipelines and hyperparameter optimization (HPO) regimes to quantify the impact of model selection, HPO, feature engineering, and test-time adaptation. Our main findings are: 1. After dataset-specific feature engineering, model rankings change considerably, performance differences decrease, and the importance of model selection reduces. 2. Recent models, despite their measurable progress, still significantly benefit from manual feature engineering. This holds true for both tree-based models and neural networks. 3. While tabular data is typically considered static, samples are often collected over time, and adapting to distribution shifts can be important even in supposedly static data. These insights suggest that research efforts should be directed toward a data-centric perspective, acknowledging that tabular data requires feature engineering and often exhibits temporal characteristics. Our framework is available under: https://github.com/atschalz/dc_tabeval.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2024

Enabling Mixed Effects Neural Networks for Diverse, Clustered Data Using Monte Carlo Methods

Neural networks often assume independence among input data samples, disregarding correlations arising from inherent clustering patterns in real-world datasets (e.g., due to different sites or repeated measurements). Recently, mixed effects neural networks (MENNs) which separate cluster-specific 'random effects' from cluster-invariant 'fixed effects' have been proposed to improve generalization and interpretability for clustered data. However, existing methods only allow for approximate quantification of cluster effects and are limited to regression and binary targets with only one clustering feature. We present MC-GMENN, a novel approach employing Monte Carlo methods to train Generalized Mixed Effects Neural Networks. We empirically demonstrate that MC-GMENN outperforms existing mixed effects deep learning models in terms of generalization performance, time complexity, and quantification of inter-cluster variance. Additionally, MC-GMENN is applicable to a wide range of datasets, including multi-class classification tasks with multiple high-cardinality categorical features. For these datasets, we show that MC-GMENN outperforms conventional encoding and embedding methods, simultaneously offering a principled methodology for interpreting the effects of clustering patterns.

cs.LG↗
arXiv2024

TGB 2.0: A Benchmark for Learning on Temporal Knowledge Graphs and Heterogeneous Graphs

Multi-relational temporal graphs are powerful tools for modeling real-world data, capturing the evolving and interconnected nature of entities over time. Recently, many novel models are proposed for ML on such graphs intensifying the need for robust evaluation and standardized benchmark datasets. However, the availability of such resources remains scarce and evaluation faces added complexity due to reproducibility issues in experimental protocols. To address these challenges, we introduce Temporal Graph Benchmark 2.0 (TGB 2.0), a novel benchmarking framework tailored for evaluating methods for predicting future links on Temporal Knowledge Graphs and Temporal Heterogeneous Graphs with a focus on large-scale datasets, extending the Temporal Graph Benchmark. TGB 2.0 facilitates comprehensive evaluations by presenting eight novel datasets spanning five domains with up to 53 million edges. TGB 2.0 datasets are significantly larger than existing datasets in terms of number of nodes, edges, or timestamps. In addition, TGB 2.0 provides a reproducible and realistic evaluation pipeline for multi-relational temporal graphs. Through extensive experimentation, we observe that 1) leveraging edge-type information is crucial to obtain high performance, 2) simple heuristic baselines are often competitive with more complex methods, 3) most methods fail to run on our largest datasets, highlighting the need for research on more scalable methods.

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