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Helen Burns

Publications and source records attributed to Helen Burns.

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Mesoscale soil moisture heterogeneity can locally amplify humid heat

Soil moisture is a key ingredient of humid heat through supplying moisture and modifying boundary layer properties. Soil moisture heterogeneity due to e.g., antecedent rainfall, can strongly influence weather patterns; yet, its effect on humid heat is poorly understood. Idealized numerical simulations are performed with a cloud-resolving ($\Delta x$=500 m), coupled land-atmosphere model wherein wet patches on length-scales $\lambda \in$ 25-150 km are prescribed. Compared to experiments with uniform soil moisture, humid heat is locally amplified by 1-4$^\circ$C, with maximum amplification for the critical soil moisture length-scale $\lambda_c=$ 50 km. Subsidence associated with a soil moisture-induced mesoscale circulation concentrates warm, humid air in a shallower boundary layer. The background wind and the magnitude of the wet-dry contrast control the relationship between $\lambda_c$ and the humid heat amplification. Based on observed soil moisture patterns, these results will help to predict extreme humid heat at city and county scales across the Tropics.

physics.ao-ph

Homogeneous soil moisture fields suppress Sahelian MCS frequency

Understanding controls on Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) is critical for predicting rainfall extremes across scales. Spatial variability of soil moisture (SM) presents such a control, with ~200km dry patches in the Sahel observed to intensify mature MCSs. Here we test MCS sensitivity to spatial scales of surface heterogeneity using a framework of 78 Unified Model experiments initialised from scale-filtered SM. We demonstrate the control of SM heterogeneity on MCS populations, and the mechanistic chain via which spatial variability propagates through surface fluxes to convective boundary layer development and storm environments. When all sub-synoptic SM variability is homogenised, peak MCS counts drop by 23%, whereas maintaining small-scale variability maintains primary initiation rates, reducing the drop in MCS totals. In sensitivity experiments, boundary layer development prior to MCSs is similar to that over mesoscale dry SM anomalies, but driven by cloud-free slots of increased shortwave radiation. This reduces storm numbers and potential predictability.

physics.ao-ph