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Helen Greatrex

Publications and source records attributed to Helen Greatrex.

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M-SGWR: Multiscale Similarity and Geographically Weighted Regression

The first law of geography is a cornerstone of spatial analysis, emphasizing that nearby and related locations tend to be more similar, however, defining what constitutes "near" and "related" remains challenging, as different phenomena exhibit distinct spatial patterns. Traditional local regression models, such as Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) and Multiscale GWR (MGWR), quantify spatial relationships solely through geographic proximity. In an era of globalization and digital connectivity, however, geographic proximity alone may be insufficient to capture how locations are interconnected. To address this limitation, we propose a new multiscale local regression framework, termed M-SGWR, which characterizes spatial interaction across two dimensions: geographic proximity and attribute (variable) similarity. For each predictor, geographic and attribute-based weight matrices are constructed separately and then combined using an optimized parameter, alpha, which governs their relative contribution to local model fitting. Analogous to variable-specific bandwidths in MGWR, the optimal alpha varies by predictor, allowing the model to flexibly account for geographic, mixed, or non-spatial (remote similarity) effects. Results from two simulation experiments and one empirical application demonstrate that M-SGWR consistently outperforms GWR, SGWR, and MGWR across all goodness-of-fit metrics.

stat.ME

Verification of Operational Numerical Weather Prediction Model Forecasts of Precipitation Using Satellite Rainfall Estimates over Africa

Rainfall is an important variable to be able to monitor and forecast across Africa, due to its impact on agriculture, food security, climate related diseases and public health. Numerical Weather Models (NWM) are an important component of this work, due to their complete spatial coverage, high resolution, and ability to forecast into the future. In this study, we seek to evaluate the spatiotemporal skill of short-term rainfall forecasts of rainfall across Africa. Specifically, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Global Forecast System (NCEP-GFS) forecast models are verified by Rainfall Estimates 2.0 (RFE2) and African Rainfall Climatology Version 2 (ARC2), which are fused products of satellite and in-situ observations and are commonly used in analysis of African rainfall. We found that the model rainfall forecasts show good consistency with the satellite rainfall observations in spatial distribution over Africa on the seasonal timescale. Evaluation metrics show high spatial and seasonal variations over the African continent, including a strong link to the location of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and topographically enhanced precipitation. The rainfall forecasts at one week aggregation time are improved against daily forecasts.

physics.ao-ph