arXiv subjects

Helge Aasen

Publications and source records attributed to Helge Aasen.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Learning to Forecast Crop Growth from Earth Observation Data

Forecasting crop growth across agricultural landscapes is important for improving the productivity, resilience, and operational management of farming systems. In this work, we investigate whether Earth observation time series and meteorological drivers can be used to predict future canopy development at country scale. We focus on winter wheat and formulate crop growth prediction as forecasting future leaf area index (LAI) trajectories beyond the last available Sentinel-2 observation. We evaluate this task on a multi-year dataset which spans the entire country of Switzerland, containing over 20 million pixel-level Sentinel-2-derived LAI time series paired with meteorological variables. Because cloud cover and revisit gaps leave LAI supervision sparse, models fit the few valid (cloud-free) LAI observations yet oscillate implausibly between them, producing trajectories no real canopy could follow. We introduce a lightweight unimodal shape regulariser which improves trajectory plausibility with negligible loss in accuracy. We compare deep learning sequence-to-sequence (Seq2Seq) models with classic machine learning baselines and show that Seq2Seq models generalise well across years, achieving $\mathrm{R}^2$ above 0.8 and consistently outperforming conventional approaches. Together, these results demonstrate that remote sensing and weather-driven sequence modelling can learn crop growth dynamics at landscape scale. S

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

SwissCrop25: A National Multi-Year Benchmark for Operational Crop Mapping

Operational crop mapping requires models that generalise across years, resolve fine-grained crop taxonomies, and distinguish cropland from surrounding landscapes. However, existing crop mapping datasets enable evaluation of these requirements only in isolation. We therefore introduce SwissCrop25, a national-scale crop mapping benchmark dataset spanning seven growing seasons (2019-2025). SwissCrop25 combines Sentinel-2 time series, daily temperature observations, a fine-grained 73 crop taxonomy including grassland management types, and 5 explicit non-crop land cover classes. To evaluate realistic deployment conditions, we define a leave-one-year-out protocol with joint cropland delineation and crop classification for benchmarking representative crop mapping architectures. Evaluating U-TAE (convolutional temporal-attention model), TSViT (transformer-based spatio-temporal model), and Galileo (EO foundation model) reveals differences between architectures hidden by conventional benchmarks. In this setting, domain-specific models outperform Galileo, with TSViT achieving the best overall performance and a 12 pp macro-mIoU advantage over U-TAE. SwissCrop25 also exposes substantial interannual distribution shifts and shows that incorporating temperature-derived phenological information improves robustness. Finally, in-season evaluation reveals a trade-off between models, with U-TAE performing better early in the season and TSViT gaining an advantage later through improved rare-class discrimination. SwissCrop25 provides a challenging testbed for evaluating crop mapping systems under realistic operational conditions and is publicly released at https://huggingface.co/datasets/EOA-team/SwissCrop25 .

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

Quantifying the Uncertainty of Foundation Models with Singular Value Ensembles

Foundation models have become a dominant paradigm in machine learning, achieving remarkable performance across diverse tasks through large-scale pretraining. However, they often yield overconfident, uncalibrated predictions. The standard approach to quantifying epistemic uncertainty are ensembles of multiple independently trained models. But their computational cost scales linearly with ensemble size, making them impractical for large foundation models. We propose Singular Value Ensemble (SVE), a parameter-efficient implicit ensembling method. SVE builds on a simple, but powerful core assumption: namely, that the singular vectors of the weight matrices correspond to meaningful directions in the representation space. If the singular vectors are indeed meaningful (orthogonal) "knowledge directions", then a model ensemble can be obtained by modulating only how strongly each direction contributes to the output. Rather than learning new parameters for each ensemble member, we freeze the singular vectors and only train per-member singular values that rescale the contribution of each direction in that shared knowledge basis. Ensemble diversity emerges naturally during joint training as stochastic initialization and random batch sampling cause different members to converge to different combinations of the same underlying knowledge. SVE performs comparable to an explicit ensemble, while increasing the parameter count of the base model by <1%, making principled uncertainty estimation accessible in resource-constrained settings. We validate SVE on NLP and vision tasks with various different backbones and show that it improves calibration while maintaining predictive accuracy.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

$T^{3}S$: Think in Thermal Time for Generalizable Crop Mapping from Satellite Image Time Series

Crop type classification from optical satellite time series remains limited in its ability to generalize across growing seasons, particularly when crop phenology shifts due to inter-annual weather variability. This hampers deployment in operational settings where current-year labels are unavailable. In addition, uncertainty quantification is often overlooked, reducing the reliability of such approaches for practical crop monitoring. Inspired by ecophysiological principles, we introduce Thermal Time-based Temporal Sampling ($T^3S$), a simple, model-agnostic method that replaces calendar time with thermal time. By re-indexing satellite observations by cumulative growing degree days, $T^3S$ aligns phenologically equivalent growth stages across years, reducing temporal redundancy while concentrating on the most biologically informative periods. We evaluate $T^3S$ across three architecturally distinct backbones on (i) SwissCrop, a new country-scale, multi-year Sentinel-2 dataset with paired temperature data that we publicly release, and (ii) the cross-region TimeMatch benchmark spanning Denmark and France. Across these settings, $T^3S$ consistently improves cross-year and cross-region crop classification over several state-of-the-art baselines, including thermal positional encoding, with particularly strong gains in uncertainty calibration, robustness under label scarcity, and early-season prediction, while requiring no architectural modification. Code and dataset are available at https://github.com/moturkoglu/T3S.

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arXiv2024

LoRA-Ensemble: Efficient Uncertainty Modelling for Self-Attention Networks

Numerous real-world decisions rely on machine learning algorithms and require calibrated uncertainty estimates. However, modern methods often yield overconfident, uncalibrated predictions. The dominant approach to quantifying the uncertainty inherent in the model is to train an ensemble of separate predictors and measure their empirical variance. In an explicit implementation, the ensemble has a high computational cost and memory footprint, especially if the base model itself is already large, like modern transformers. This motivates efforts to develop implicit ensemble methods that emulate the ensemble without explicitly instantiating all its members. We introduce LoRA-Ensemble, a parameter-efficient ensembling method for self-attention networks. It is based on Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA), originally developed for efficient LLM fine-tuning, and extends it into an implicit ensembling scheme, where all ensemble members share the same, pre-trained self-attention network, but have individual low-rank matrices for the attention projections. The resulting method not only outperforms state-of-the-art implicit techniques like BatchEnsemble, but even matches or exceeds the accuracy of an Explicit Ensemble, while at the same time achieving superior calibration.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2021

Global Wheat Head Dataset 2021: more diversity to improve the benchmarking of wheat head localization methods

The Global Wheat Head Detection (GWHD) dataset was created in 2020 and has assembled 193,634 labelled wheat heads from 4,700 RGB images acquired from various acquisition platforms and 7 countries/institutions. With an associated competition hosted in Kaggle, GWHD has successfully attracted attention from both the computer vision and agricultural science communities. From this first experience in 2020, a few avenues for improvements have been identified, especially from the perspective of data size, head diversity and label reliability. To address these issues, the 2020 dataset has been reexamined, relabeled, and augmented by adding 1,722 images from 5 additional countries, allowing for 81,553 additional wheat heads to be added. We now release a new version of the Global Wheat Head Detection (GWHD) dataset in 2021, which is bigger, more diverse, and less noisy than the 2020 version. The GWHD 2021 is now publicly available at http://www.global-wheat.com/ and a new data challenge has been organized on AIcrowd to make use of this updated dataset.

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