arXiv subjects

Henning Mortveit

Publications and source records attributed to Henning Mortveit.

12 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

A Mathematical Optimization Approach for Expert-Informed Bayesian Best Subset Selection

A central challenge in statistical modeling is identifying the subset of features that belong in the true regression model. The classical best subset selection problem, recently made tractable via mixed-integer optimization (MIO), finds the globally optimal sparse solution. It does not, however, make use of any information beyond the observed data. In many applied settings, domain experts can meaningfully rank or score the relevance of candidate predictors, yet no existing framework integrates such probabilistic expert assessments directly into the best-subsets objective. This paper presents Expert-Implied Bayesian Best Subsets (EBBS), a method that incorporates domain-expert probability estimates of feature relevance into the MIO best-subsets problem through a maximum a posteriori (MAP) framework. Expert views from multiple respondents are aggregated into a single prior probability per feature using the Poisson binomial distribution for marginal probability estimates, the pairwise win rate for pairwise comparisons, or the normalized mean rank for ordinal rankings. This probability enters the objective function as a log-odds penalty term that smoothly encourages or discourages the selection of each feature consistent with the expert consensus. This paper provides analytic derivations of the MAP formulation and characterizes its theoretical properties. The proposed model reduces to Best Subsets when experts all have no views. Empirical results on synthetic and real datasets are forthcoming.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Theoretical Note: On the Practical Uses of Mathematical Theory for Attitude Research

In attitude theory, formal theoretical predictions come largely from the simulation of computational models. We argue that to push attitude theory further, we should employ mathematical analysis/analytic methods alongside of computational simulation, something that other sciences and engineering consider standard practice. Our work first attempts to portray the complementary nature of mathematical analysis along side of computational simulation using as an example the Causal Attitude Network model of attitudes (Dalege et al., 2016). We then introduce a mathematical theory, Graph Dynamical Systems (GDS), as a broad theoretical framework for network models of attitudes. We illustrate the use of GDS, in the context of the Attitudes as Constraint Satistfaction (ACS) theory of attitude dynamics (Monroe & Read, 2008), as a generator of precise, quantitative theoretical predictions. We conclude by pointing out the value of improved attitude theory for the so-called replication crisis in psychology. KEYWORDS: attitudes, neural networks, dynamical systems, psychological networks

q-bio.NC↗

arXiv2025

Towards High Resolution Probabilistic Coastal Inundation Forecasting from Sparse Observations

Coastal flooding poses increasing threats to communities worldwide, necessitating accurate and hyper-local inundation forecasting for effective emergency response. However, real-world deployment of forecasting systems is often constrained by sparse sensor networks, where only a limited subset of locations may have sensors due to budget constraints. To approach this challenge, we present DIFF -SPARSE, a masked conditional diffusion model designed for probabilistic coastal inundation forecasting from sparse sensor observations. DIFF -SPARSE primarily utilizes the inundation history of a location and its neighboring locations from a context time window as spatiotemporal context. The fundamental challenge of spatiotemporal prediction based on sparse observations in the context window is addressed by introducing a novel masking strategy during training. Digital elevation data and temporal co-variates are utilized as additional spatial and temporal contexts, respectively. A convolutional neural network and a conditional UNet architecture with cross-attention mechanism are employed to capture the spatiotemporal dynamics in the data. We trained and tested DIFF -SPARSE on coastal inundation data from the Eastern Shore of Virginia and systematically assessed the performance of DIFF -SPARSE across different sparsity levels 0%, 50%, 95% missing observations. Our experiment results show that DIFF -SPARSE achieves upto 62% improvement in terms of two forecasting performance metrics compared to existing methods, at 95% sparsity level. Moreover, our ablation studies reveal that digital elevation data becomes more useful at high sparsity levels compared to temporal co-variates.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Pandemics In Silico: Scaling an Agent-Based Simulation on Realistic Social Contact Networks

Preventing the spread of infectious diseases requires implementing interventions at various levels of government and evaluating the potential impact and efficacy of those preemptive measures. Agent-based modeling can be used for detailed studies of epidemic diffusion and possible interventions. Modeling of epidemic diffusion in large social contact networks requires the use of parallel algorithms and resources. In this work, we present Loimos, a scalable parallel framework for simulating epidemic diffusion. Loimos uses a hybrid of time-stepping and discrete-event simulation to model disease spread, and is implemented on top of an asynchronous, many-task runtime. We demonstrate that Loimos is to able to achieve significant speedups while scaling to large core counts. In particular, Loimos is able to simulate 200 days of a COVID-19 outbreak on a digital twin of California in about 42 seconds, for an average of 4.6 billion traversed edges per second (TEPS), using 4096 cores on Perlmutter at NERSC.

cs.DC↗

arXiv2024

A Scalable Game-theoretic Approach to Urban Evacuation Routing and Scheduling

Evacuation planning is an essential part of disaster management where the goal is to relocate people under imminent danger to safety. However, finding jointly optimal evacuation routes and schedule that minimizes the average evacuation time or evacuation completion time, is a computationally hard problem. As a result, large-scale evacuation routing and scheduling continues to be a challenge. In this paper, we present a game-theoretic approach to tackle this problem. We start by formulating a strategic routing and scheduling game, named the Evacuation Game: Routing and Scheduling (EGRES), where players choose their route and time of departure. We show that: (i) every instance of EGRES has at least one pure strategy Nash equilibrium, and (ii) an optimal outcome in an instance will always be an equilibrium in that instance. We then provide bounds on how bad an equilibrium can be compared to an optimal outcome. Additionally, we present a polynomial-time algorithm, the Sequential Action Algorithm (SAA), for finding equilibria in a given instance under a special condition. We use Virginia Beach City in Virginia, and Harris County in Houston, Texas as study areas and construct two EGRES instances. Our results show that, by utilizing SAA, we can efficiently find equilibria in these instances that have social objective close to the optimal value.

cs.GT↗

arXiv2022

High-resolution synthetic residential energy use profiles for the United States

Efficient energy consumption is crucial for achieving sustainable energy goals in the era of climate change and grid modernization. Thus, it is vital to understand how energy is consumed at finer resolutions such as household in order to plan demand-response events or analyze the impacts of weather, electricity prices, electric vehicles, solar, and occupancy schedules on energy consumption. However, availability and access to detailed energy-use data, which would enable detailed studies, has been rare. In this paper, we release a unique, large-scale, synthetic, residential energy-use dataset for the residential sector across the contiguous United States covering millions of households. The data comprise of hourly energy use profiles for synthetic households, disaggregated into Thermostatically Controlled Loads (TCL) and appliance use. The underlying framework is constructed using a bottom-up approach. Diverse open-source surveys and first principles models are used for end-use modeling. Extensive validation of the synthetic dataset has been conducted through comparisons with reported energy-use data. We present a detailed, open, high-resolution, residential energy-use dataset for the United States.

eess.SP↗

arXiv2022

Ensembles of Realistic Power Distribution Networks

The power grid is going through significant changes with the introduction of renewable energy sources and incorporation of smart grid technologies. These rapid advancements necessitate new models and analyses to keep up with the various emergent phenomena they induce. A major prerequisite of such work is the acquisition of well-constructed and accurate network datasets for the power grid infrastructure. In this paper, we propose a robust, scalable framework to synthesize power distribution networks which resemble their physical counterparts for a given region. We use openly available information about interdependent road and building infrastructures to construct the networks. In contrast to prior work based on network statistics, we incorporate engineering and economic constraints to create the networks. Additionally, we provide a framework to create ensembles of power distribution networks to generate multiple possible instances of the network for a given region. The comprehensive dataset consists of nodes with attributes such as geo-coordinates, type of node (residence, transformer, or substation), and edges with attributes such as geometry, type of line (feeder lines, primary or secondary) and line parameters. For validation, we provide detailed comparisons of the generated networks with actual distribution networks. The generated datasets represent realistic test systems (as compared to standard IEEE test cases) that can be used by network scientists to analyze complex events in power grids and to perform detailed sensitivity and statistical analyses over ensembles of networks.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2022

Simulation-Assisted Optimization for Large-Scale Evacuation Planning with Congestion-Dependent Delays

Evacuation planning is a crucial part of disaster management. However, joint optimization of its two essential components, routing and scheduling, with objectives such as minimizing average evacuation time or evacuation completion time, is a computationally hard problem. To approach it, we present MIP-LNS, a scalable optimization method that utilizes heuristic search with mathematical optimization and can optimize a variety of objective functions. We also present the method MIP-LNS-SIM, where we combine agent-based simulation with MIP-LNS to estimate delays due to congestion, as well as, find optimized plans considering such delays. We use Harris County in Houston, Texas, as our study area. We show that, within a given time limit, MIP-LNS finds better solutions than existing methods in terms of three different metrics. However, when congestion dependent delay is considered, MIP-LNS-SIM outperforms MIP-LNS in multiple performance metrics. In addition, MIP-LNS-SIM has a significantly lower percent error in estimated evacuation completion time compared to MIP-LNS.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2022

A Reliability-aware Distributed Framework to Schedule Residential Charging of Electric Vehicles

Residential consumers have become active participants in the power distribution network after being equipped with residential EV charging provisions. This creates a challenge for the network operator tasked with dispatching electric power to the residential consumers through the existing distribution network infrastructure in a reliable manner. In this paper, we address the problem of scheduling residential EV charging for multiple consumers while maintaining network reliability. An additional challenge is the restricted exchange of information: where the consumers do not have access to network information and the network operator does not have access to consumer load parameters. We propose a distributed framework which generates an optimal EV charging schedule for individual residential consumers based on their preferences and iteratively updates it until the network reliability constraints set by the operator are satisfied. We validate the proposed approach for different EV adoption levels in a synthetically created digital twin of an actual power distribution network. The results demonstrate that the new approach can achieve a higher level of network reliability compared to the case where residential consumers charge EVs based solely on their individual preferences, thus providing a solution for the existing grid to keep up with increased adoption rates without significant investments in increasing grid capacity.

cs.MA↗

arXiv2020

Creating Realistic Power Distribution Networks using Interdependent Road Infrastructure

It is well known that physical interdependencies exist between networked civil infrastructures such as transportation and power system networks. In order to analyze complex nonlinear correlations between such networks, datasets pertaining to such real infrastructures are required. However, such data are not readily available due to their proprietary nature. This work proposes a methodology to generate realistic synthetic power distribution networks for a given geographical region. A network generated in this manner is not the actual distribution system, but its functionality is very similar to the real distribution network. The synthetic network connects high voltage substations to individual residential consumers through primary and secondary distribution networks. Here, the distribution network is generated by solving an optimization problem which minimizes the overall length of the network subject to structural and power flow constraints. This work also incorporates identification of long high voltage feeders originating from substations and connecting remotely situated customers in rural geographic locations while maintaining voltage regulation within acceptable limits. The proposed methodology is applied to the state of Virginia and creates synthetic distribution networks which are validated by comparing them to actual power distribution networks at the same location.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2020

Data-driven modeling for different stages of pandemic response

Some of the key questions of interest during the COVID-19 pandemic (and all outbreaks) include: where did the disease start, how is it spreading, who is at risk, and how to control the spread. There are a large number of complex factors driving the spread of pandemics, and, as a result, multiple modeling techniques play an increasingly important role in shaping public policy and decision making. As different countries and regions go through phases of the pandemic, the questions and data availability also changes. Especially of interest is aligning model development and data collection to support response efforts at each stage of the pandemic. The COVID-19 pandemic has been unprecedented in terms of real-time collection and dissemination of a number of diverse datasets, ranging from disease outcomes, to mobility, behaviors, and socio-economic factors. The data sets have been critical from the perspective of disease modeling and analytics to support policymakers in real-time. In this overview article, we survey the data landscape around COVID-19, with a focus on how such datasets have aided modeling and response through different stages so far in the pandemic. We also discuss some of the current challenges and the needs that will arise as we plan our way out of the pandemic.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2007

A mathematical formalism for agent-based modeling

Many complex systems can be modeled as multiagent systems in which the constituent entities (agents) interact with each other. The global dynamics of such a system is determined by the nature of the local interactions among the agents. Since it is difficult to formally analyze complex multiagent systems, they are often studied through computer simulations. While computer simulations can be very useful, results obtained through simulations do not formally validate the observed behavior. Thus, there is a need for a mathematical framework which one can use to represent multiagent systems and formally establish their properties. This work contains a brief exposition of some known mathematical frameworks that can model multiagent systems. The focus is on one such framework, namely that of finite dynamical systems. Both, deterministic and stochastic versions of this framework are discussed. The paper contains a sampling of the mathematical results from the literature to show how finite dynamical systems can be used to carry out a rigorous study of the properties of multiagent systems and it is shown how the framework can also serve as a universal model for computation.

cs.MA↗