arXiv subjects

Henri Keränen

Publications and source records attributed to Henri Keränen.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

A Note on the Identification Step in "A Semistructural Methodology for Policy Counterfactuals"

The New Keynesian example of Beraja (2023) is not identified at its printed calibration: more than one structure satisfies every condition of its identification step. Two of the paper's six identifying restrictions coincide on equilibrium equations consistent with the printed reduced form, leaving eleven conditions to determine an equation's twelve coefficients. The note derives the rank condition the identification step requires, computable from the reduced form and the restrictions alone. The note also documents and corrects a misprint in the paper's counterfactual display. A one-clause amendment to the paper's Theorem 1 restores its conclusion.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2024

Identification of fiscal SVAR-IVs in small open economies

We identify fiscal SVAR-IVs by utilizing unexpected variation in the output of trading partner economies, measured by professional forecast errors, to account for the systematic component of fiscal policy. Our identification builds on the small open economy assumption that these forecast errors correlate with output but are exogenous to domestic fiscal policy. In applying our approach to Canada and euro area small open economies we show that the instrument is relevant and find suggestive evidence for its exogeneity. Our baseline estimates for the two-year cumulative spending multiplier are around 1 for Canada and 0.5 for euro area small open economies.

econ.GN↗