Searcharxiv⌕ Search

arXiv subjects

Henrik Aalborg Nielsen

Publications and source records attributed to Henrik Aalborg Nielsen.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

onlineforecast: An R package for adaptive and recursive forecasting

Systems that rely on forecasts to make decisions, e.g. control or energy trading systems, require frequent updates of the forecasts. Usually, the forecasts are updated whenever new observations become available, hence in an online setting. We present the R package onlineforecast that provides a generalized setup of data and models for online forecasting. It has functionality for time-adaptive fitting of dynamical and non-linear models. The setup is tailored to enable the effective use of forecasts as model inputs, e.g. numerical weather forecast. Users can create new models for their particular applications and run models in an operational setting. The package also allows users to easily replace parts of the setup, e.g. using neural network methods for estimation. The package comes with comprehensive vignettes and examples of online forecasting applications in energy systems, but can easily be applied for online forecasting in all fields.

stat.CO↗

Load Forecasting of Supermarket Refrigeration

This paper presents a study of models for forecasting the electrical load for supermarket refrigeration. The data used for building the models consists of load measurements, local climate measurements and weather forecasts. The load measurements are from a supermarket located in a village in Denmark. Every hour the hourly electrical load for refrigeration is forecasted for the following 42 hours. The forecast models are adaptive linear time series models. The model has two regimes; one for opening hours and one for closing hours, this is modelled by a regime switching model and two different methods for predicting the regimes are tested. The dynamic relation between the weather and the load is modelled by simple transfer functions and the non-linearities are described using spline functions. The results are thoroughly evaluated and it is shown that the spline functions are suitable for handling the non-linear relations and that after applying an auto-regressive noise model the one-step ahead residuals do not contain further significant information.

stat.AP↗