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Henryk Mustroph

Publications and source records attributed to Henryk Mustroph.

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Decision-Aware Suffix Prediction and Reasoning of Business Processes

Suffix prediction forecasts the remaining sequence of events of a running case until completion. Most approaches rely on neural networks trained on event logs, which, on average, perform well but struggle with short prefixes or targets belonging to a rare process variant. In such scenarios, the correct path may cross multiple branching decisions, determined primarily by case- and event-level attributes, a signal that NN-based suffix prediction models tend to underweight because they may heavily weight (dense) event labels. Decision mining extracts rules for such decisions from the event log, but has so far been applied only to post-hoc and what-if analysis, not suffix prediction. We therefore extend suffix prediction with decision mining, introducing a decision-aware suffix prediction framework, a neuro-symbolic approach that enables reasoning about predicted events via mined decision rules. Experiments on three of four event logs and three suffix predictors show that the framework can improve suffix prediction, especially for short prefixes but also for rare process variants, and adds intrinsic interpretability.

cs.LG

An Uncertainty-Aware ED-LSTM for Probabilistic Suffix Prediction

Suffix prediction of business processes forecasts the remaining sequence of events until process completion. Current approaches focus on predicting the most likely suffix, representing a single scenario. However, when the future course of a process is subject to uncertainty and high variability, the expressiveness of such a single scenario can be limited, since other possible scenarios, which together may have a higher overall probability, are overlooked. To address this limitation, we propose probabilistic suffix prediction, a novel approach that approximates a probability distribution of suffixes. The proposed approach is based on an Uncertainty-Aware Encoder-Decoder LSTM (U-ED-LSTM) and a Monte Carlo (MC) suffix sampling algorithm. We capture epistemic uncertainties via MC dropout and aleatoric uncertainties as learned loss attenuation. This technical report presents a comprehensive evaluation of the probabilistic suffix prediction approach's predictive performance and calibration under three different hyperparameter settings, using four real-life and one artificial event log. The results show that: i) probabilistic suffix prediction can outperform most likely suffix prediction, the U-ED-LSTM has reasonable predictive performance, and ii) the model's predictions are well calibrated.

cs.LG

Design of a Quality Management System based on the EU Artificial Intelligence Act

The EU AI Act mandates that providers and deployers of high-risk AI systems establish a quality management system (QMS). Among other criteria, a QMS shall help verify and document the AI system design and quality and monitor the proper implementation of all high-risk AI system requirements. Current research rarely explores practical solutions for implementing the EU AI Act. Instead, it tends to focus on theoretical concepts. As a result, more attention must be paid to tools that help humans actively check and document AI systems and orchestrate the implementation of all high-risk AI system requirements. Therefore, this paper introduces a new design concept and prototype for a QMS as a microservice Software as a Service web application. It connects directly to the AI system for verification and documentation and enables the orchestration and integration of various sub-services, which can be individually designed, each tailored to specific high-risk AI system requirements. The first version of the prototype connects to the Phi-3-mini-128k-instruct LLM as an example of an AI system and integrates a risk management system and a data management system. The prototype is evaluated through a qualitative assessment of the implemented requirements, a GPU memory and performance analysis, and an evaluation with IT, AI, and legal experts.

cs.SE