Searcharxiv⌕ Search

arXiv subjects

Hidemi Mitani Shen

Publications and source records attributed to Hidemi Mitani Shen.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

Probabilistic neural network approach to determining parameters of eclipsing binaries

Eclipsing binaries provide one of the most direct mechanisms for measuring stellar properties such as mass and radius, but historically, determining these properties has been non-trivial and computationally prohibitive. As such, only a small fraction of all eclipsing binaries for which data have been available have been fully characterized. To improve computational efficiency, we construct an uncertainty-aware neural network which can ingest phase-folded light curves in any of 50 commonly used passbands, combined with phase-folded radial velocity measurements for both primary and secondary, as well as fluxes across the spectral energy distribution to predict stellar and orbital parameters of eclipsing binaries. The model was trained to be agnostic to the presence of third light, spots (both cool and hot), and incomplete data. As the model is operating in a probabilistic framework, it is also capable of outputting uncertainties in all of the parameters. The model was trained on synthetic data, and applied to a set of $\sim$200 previously solved real eclipsing binaries to demonstrate its performance. The model is capable of determining masses and radii of eclipsing binaries with precision of $\lesssim$20\% and $T_{\rm eff}$ with precision of $\sim$500 K in only a fraction of the time it takes the more traditional solvers. Although the resulting uncertainties are larger than what is possible to produce using more boutique analysis of individual stars, in the era of large photometric surveys, this approach allows to identify the most interesting systems, and it provides a starting point of the distributions in all of the parameters that these solvers could improve upon.

astro-ph.SR↗

Emulating the Global Change Analysis Model with Deep Learning

The Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) simulates complex interactions between the coupled Earth and human systems, providing valuable insights into the co-evolution of land, water, and energy sectors under different future scenarios. Understanding the sensitivities and drivers of this multisectoral system can lead to more robust understanding of the different pathways to particular outcomes. The interactions and complexity of the coupled human-Earth systems make GCAM simulations costly to run at scale - a requirement for large ensemble experiments which explore uncertainty in model parameters and outputs. A differentiable emulator with similar predictive power, but greater efficiency, could provide novel scenario discovery and analysis of GCAM and its outputs, requiring fewer runs of GCAM. As a first use case, we train a neural network on an existing large ensemble that explores a range of GCAM inputs related to different relative contributions of energy production sources, with a focus on wind and solar. We complement this existing ensemble with interpolated input values and a wider selection of outputs, predicting 22,528 GCAM outputs across time, sectors, and regions. We report a median $R^2$ score of 0.998 for the emulator's predictions and an $R^2$ score of 0.812 for its input-output sensitivity.

econ.GN↗