arXiv subjects

Hikmat Karimov

Publications and source records attributed to Hikmat Karimov.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Information-Geometric First-Passage Monitoring of Distributional Stability in Stochastic Systems

Runtime monitoring of stochastic systems must distinguish nominal distributional relaxation from regime departure while controlling repeated-test false alarms under explicit validity assumptions. This paper links relative-entropy dissipation, information geometry, and sequential inference in a bounded first-passage monitoring architecture. For reversible Fokker--Planck dynamics, relative entropy to an invariant density is non-increasing; under exogenous forcing, its derivative decomposes into nominal dissipation and an information-space forcing term. The runtime layer uses Gaussian window surrogates, nominal-relative covariance shrinkage, a coordinate-consistent relative precision diagnostic, and randomized conformal ranks aggregated by a mixture power-martingale process. Analytical Ornstein--Uhlenbeck validation gives zero positive nominal Kullback--Leibler increments, forcing-identity residuals below 3.31 x 10^-6, and coordinate-invariance errors at numerical roundoff. On NSL-KDD, the monitor yields 0/100 alarms on internal nominal streams but 63/100 on official test-normal streams; post-change detection is 99.0% for seen and 98.53% for test-only attack types with median one-window delay. On UNSW-NB15, internal-null alarms are 0/100, whereas official test-normal alarms rise to 90/100; post-change detection is 81.33%, with 18.67% pre-change alarms. In these evaluations, calibration transport emerges as a major deployment constraint. No universal benchmark superiority, causal inference, or physical-work interpretation is claimed.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Spectral Perturbation of the Empirical Fisher Information Matrix under Weight Quantization

We study the spectral perturbation of the empirical Fisher Information Matrix (FIM) of a parametric statistical model under two structured perturbations: departure of the input from a reference (in-distribution) ensemble, and finite-precision (quantized) perturbation of the model's parameters. For the first, under an explicit local curvature-monotonicity hypothesis on the dominant eigenvalue lambda_max of the FIM, we show departure from a reference manifold provably elevates lambda_max relative to a calibration baseline (Proposition 3.2), and discuss why this hypothesis is required, since curvature need not increase monotonically under every perturbation. Our principal result is a directional eigenvalue perturbation bound, via Weyl's inequality, showing lambda_max under a quantization noise perturbation is lower bounded by its unperturbed value up to a third-order remainder, and, under a mild genericity condition, strictly exceeds it at leading order (Theorem 4.3). We give two tractable approximations to lambda_max -- one heuristic, one with a rigorous two-sided bound -- and a completeness result for a threshold-based partition of an augmented state space. These results motivate using sigma_t = lambda_max(F_t)/lambda_base as a runtime monitoring statistic for deployed language models: the quantization result offers a mechanism for an empirical observation of our own, where a calibration threshold for this statistic was approximately 244 times larger than a preliminary full-precision estimate on a 4-bit quantized model, a single measurement rather than a value derived in closed form. We report supporting measurements (twelve models, n=1,080 trajectories) broadly consistent with our predictions, discuss the scope and limitations of every result, and state as an open problem the closed-form prediction of the quantization inflation magnitude our bound does not supply.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

An Information-Geometric Framework for Stability Analysis of Large Language Models under Entropic Stress

As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in high-stakes and operational settings, evaluation strategies based solely on aggregate accuracy are often insucient to characterize system reliability. This study proposes a thermodynamic inspired modeling framework for analyzing the stability of LLM outputs under conditions of uncertainty and perturbation. The framework introduces a composite stability score that integrates task utility, entropy as a measure of external uncertainty, and two internal structural proxies: internal integration and aligned reective capacity. Rather than interpreting these quantities as physical variables, the formulation is intended as an interpretable abstraction that captures how internal structure may modulate the impact of disorder on model behavior. Using the IST-20 benchmarking protocol and associated metadata, we analyze 80 modelscenario observations across four contemporary LLMs. The proposed formulation consistently yields higher stability scores than a reduced utilityentropy baseline, with a mean improvement of 0.0299 (95% CI: 0.02470.0351). The observed gain is more pronounced under higher entropy conditions, suggesting that the framework captures a form of nonlinear attenuation of uncertainty. We do not claim a fundamental physical law or a complete theory of machine ethics. Instead, the contribution of this work is a compact and interpretable modeling perspective that connects uncertainty, performance, and internal structure within a unied evaluation lens. The framework is intended to complement existing benchmarking approaches and to support ongoing discussions in AI safety, reliability, and governance.

cs.AI↗