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Hiranya Peiris

Publications and source records attributed to Hiranya Peiris.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

StAD: Stein Amortized Divergence for Fast Likelihoods with Diffusion and Flow

Diffusion and flow-based models are ubiquitously used for generative modelling and density estimation. They admit a deterministic probability flow ordinary differential equation (PF-ODE), analogous to continuous normalizing flows (CNFs), which describes the transport of the probability mass. Obtaining the likelihood from these models is of interest to many workflows, especially Bayesian analysis, and requires solving the trace of the Jacobian to compute the divergence of the learned PF-ODE, which is either $\mathcal{O}(D^2)$ to compute exactly or $\mathcal{O}(D)$ with a noisy estimate. We introduce StAD, a new distillation method to predict and learn the divergence of the PF-ODE using the Langevin-Stein operator without ever computing the Jacobian. We show that our method is competitive with the Hutchinson and Hutch++ on CIFAR-10, ImageNet and other density estimation tasks, consistently improving the variance and speed of the likelihood predictions compared to the Hutchinson. We additionally show our method will generalize to a varied class of generative models, and show that under some regularity conditions these learned vector fields can be made to satisfy the Stein class.

stat.ML

Particle Physics and Gravitational Waves as complementary windows on the Universe

Particle physics and gravitational waves provide complementary probes of the deep structure of the Universe. Gravitational waves from the mergers of neutron stars and black holes are sensitive to the structure of dense quark matter and to different dark matter scenarios. Measurements of stochastic gravitational waves backgrounds can teach us about possible first order phase transitions in the early Universe, including providing sensitivity to the TeV scale which is of key interest to future particle collider experiments. Gravitational waves measurements will also give new probes of the evolution and expansion of the Universe, complementary to measurements with electromagnetic radiation. This Perspectives article explores the physics synergies between the science opportunities provided by next generation gravitational waves measurements and particle physics experiments. Gravitational waves can also probe deep into the early Universe reaching physics much above possible collider energies if the signals can be detected.

astro-ph.CO

Opportunities in AI/ML for the Rubin LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will produce unprecedented volumes of heterogeneous astronomical data (images, catalogs, and alerts) that challenge traditional analysis pipelines. The LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) aims to derive robust constraints on dark energy and dark matter from these data, requiring methods that are statistically powerful, scalable, and operationally reliable. Artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) are already embedded across DESC science workflows, from photometric redshifts and transient classification to weak lensing inference and cosmological simulations. Yet their utility for precision cosmology hinges on trustworthy uncertainty quantification, robustness to covariate shift and model misspecification, and reproducible integration within scientific pipelines. This white paper surveys the current landscape of AI/ML across DESC's primary cosmological probes and cross-cutting analyses, revealing that the same core methodologies and fundamental challenges recur across disparate science cases. Since progress on these cross-cutting challenges would benefit multiple probes simultaneously, we identify key methodological research priorities, including Bayesian inference at scale, physics-informed methods, validation frameworks, and active learning for discovery. With an eye on emerging techniques, we also explore the potential of the latest foundation model methodologies and LLM-driven agentic AI systems to reshape DESC workflows, provided their deployment is coupled with rigorous evaluation and governance. Finally, we discuss critical software, computing, data infrastructure, and human capital requirements for the successful deployment of these new methodologies, and consider associated risks and opportunities for broader coordination with external actors.

astro-ph.IM

pop-cosmos: A comprehensive picture of the galaxy population from COSMOS data

We present pop-cosmos: a comprehensive model characterizing the galaxy population, calibrated to $140,938$ ($r<25$ selected) galaxies from the Cosmic Evolution Survey (COSMOS) with photometry in $26$ bands from the ultra-violet to the infra-red. We construct a detailed forward model for the COSMOS data, comprising: a population model describing the joint distribution of galaxy characteristics and its evolution (parameterized by a flexible score-based diffusion model); a state-of-the-art stellar population synthesis (SPS) model connecting galaxies' instrinsic properties to their photometry; and a data-model for the observation, calibration and selection processes. By minimizing the optimal transport distance between synthetic and real data we are able to jointly fit the population- and data-models, leading to robustly calibrated population-level inferences that account for parameter degeneracies, photometric noise and calibration, and selection. We present a number of key predictions from our model of interest for cosmology and galaxy evolution, including the mass function and redshift distribution; the mass-metallicity-redshift and fundamental metallicity relations; the star-forming sequence; the relation between dust attenuation and stellar mass, star formation rate and attenuation-law index; and the relation between gas-ionization and star formation. Our model encodes a comprehensive picture of galaxy evolution that faithfully predicts galaxy colors across a broad redshift ($z<4$) and wavelength range.

astro-ph.GA

Forward modeling of galaxy populations for cosmological redshift distribution inference

We present a forward modeling framework for estimating galaxy redshift distributions from photometric surveys. Our forward model is composed of: a detailed population model describing the intrinsic distribution of physical characteristics of galaxies, encoding galaxy evolution physics; a stellar population synthesis model connecting the physical properties of galaxies to their photometry; a data-model characterizing the observation and calibration processes for a given survey; and, explicit treatment of selection cuts, both into the main analysis sample and subsequent sorting into tomographic redshift bins. This approach has the appeal that it does not rely on spectroscopic calibration data, provides explicit control over modeling assumptions, and builds a direct bridge between photo-$z$ inference and galaxy evolution physics. In addition to redshift distributions, forward modeling provides a framework for drawing robust inferences about the statistical properties of the galaxy population more generally. We demonstrate the utility of forward modeling by estimating the redshift distributions for the Galaxy And Mass Assembly (GAMA) and Vimos VLT Deep (VVDS) surveys, validating against their spectroscopic redshifts. Our baseline model is able to predict tomographic redshift distributions for GAMA and VVDS with a bias of $Δz \lesssim 0.003$ and $Δz \simeq 0.01$ on the mean redshift respectively -- comfortably accurate enough for Stage III cosmological surveys -- without any hyper-parameter tuning (i.e., prior to doing any fitting to those data). We anticipate that with additional hyper-parameter fitting and modeling improvements, forward modeling can provide a path to accurate redshift distribution inference for Stage IV surveys.

astro-ph.CO

Hierarchical Bayesian inference of photometric redshifts with stellar population synthesis models

We present a Bayesian hierarchical framework to analyze photometric galaxy survey data with stellar population synthesis (SPS) models. Our method couples robust modeling of spectral energy distributions with a population model and a noise model to characterize the statistical properties of the galaxy populations and real observations, respectively. By self-consistently inferring all model parameters, from high-level hyper-parameters to SPS parameters of individual galaxies, one can separate sources of bias and uncertainty in the data.We demonstrate the strengths and flexibility of this approach by deriving accurate photometric redshifts for a sample of spectroscopically-confirmed galaxies in the COSMOS field, all with 26-band photometry and spectroscopic redshifts. We achieve a performance competitive with publicly-released photometric redshift catalogs based on the same data. Prior to this work, this approach was computationally intractable in practice due to the heavy computational load of SPS model calls; we overcome this challenge using with neural emulators. We find that the largest photometric residuals are associated with poor calibration for emission line luminosities and thus build a framework to mitigate these effects. This combination of physics-based modeling accelerated with machine learning paves the path towards meeting the stringent requirements on the accuracy of photometric redshift estimation imposed by upcoming cosmological surveys. The approach also has the potential to create new links between cosmology and galaxy evolution through the analysis of photometric datasets.

astro-ph.IM

Optimization of the Observing Cadence for the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time: a pioneering process of community-focused experimental design

Vera C. Rubin Observatory is a ground-based astronomical facility under construction, a joint project of the National Science Foundation and the U.S. Department of Energy, designed to conduct a multi-purpose 10-year optical survey of the southern hemisphere sky: the Legacy Survey of Space and Time. Significant flexibility in survey strategy remains within the constraints imposed by the core science goals of probing dark energy and dark matter, cataloging the Solar System, exploring the transient optical sky, and mapping the Milky Way. The survey's massive data throughput will be transformational for many other astrophysics domains and Rubin's data access policy sets the stage for a huge potential users' community. To ensure that the survey science potential is maximized while serving as broad a community as possible, Rubin Observatory has involved the scientific community at large in the process of setting and refining the details of the observing strategy. The motivation, history, and decision-making process of this strategy optimization are detailed in this paper, giving context to the science-driven proposals and recommendations for the survey strategy included in this Focus Issue.

astro-ph.IM

The Impact of Observing Strategy on Cosmological Constraints with LSST

The generation-defining Vera C. Rubin Observatory will make state-of-the-art measurements of both the static and transient universe through its Legacy Survey for Space and Time (LSST). With such capabilities, it is immensely challenging to optimize the LSST observing strategy across the survey's wide range of science drivers. Many aspects of the LSST observing strategy relevant to the LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration, such as survey footprint definition, single visit exposure time and the cadence of repeat visits in different filters, are yet to be finalized. Here, we present metrics used to assess the impact of observing strategy on the cosmological probes considered most sensitive to survey design; these are large-scale structure, weak lensing, type Ia supernovae, kilonovae and strong lens systems (as well as photometric redshifts, which enable many of these probes). We evaluate these metrics for over 100 different simulated potential survey designs. Our results show that multiple observing strategy decisions can profoundly impact cosmological constraints with LSST; these include adjusting the survey footprint, ensuring repeat nightly visits are taken in different filters and enforcing regular cadence. We provide public code for our metrics, which makes them readily available for evaluating further modifications to the survey design. We conclude with a set of recommendations and highlight observing strategy factors that require further research.

astro-ph.CO

GenetIC -- a new initial conditions generator to support genetically modified zoom simulations

We present genetIC, a new code for generating initial conditions for cosmological N-body simulations. The code allows precise, user-specified alterations to be made to arbitrary regions of the simulation (while maintaining consistency with the statistical ensemble). These "genetic modifications" allow, for example, the history, mass, or environment of a target halo to be altered in order to study the effect on their evolution. The code natively supports initial conditions with nested zoom regions at progressively increasing resolution. Modifications in the high-resolution region must propagate self-consistently onto the lower resolution grids; to enable this while maintaining a small memory footprint, we introduce a Fourier-space filtering approach to generating fields at variable resolution. Due to a close correspondence with modifications, constrained initial conditions can also be produced by genetIC (for example with the aim of matching structures in the local Universe). We test the accuracy of modifications performed within zoom initial conditions. The code achieves sub-percent precision, which is easily sufficient for current applications in galaxy formation.

astro-ph.IM

SPECULATOR: Emulating stellar population synthesis for fast and accurate galaxy spectra and photometry

We present SPECULATOR - a fast, accurate, and flexible framework for emulating stellar population synthesis (SPS) models for predicting galaxy spectra and photometry. For emulating spectra, we use principal component analysis to construct a set of basis functions, and neural networks to learn the basis coefficients as a function of the SPS model parameters. For photometry, we parameterize the magnitudes (for the filters of interest) as a function of SPS parameters by a neural network. The resulting emulators are able to predict spectra and photometry under both simple and complicated SPS model parameterizations to percent-level accuracy, giving a factor of $10^3$-$10^4$ speed up over direct SPS computation. They have readily-computable derivatives, making them amenable to gradient-based inference and optimization methods. The emulators are also straightforward to call from a GPU, giving an additional order-of-magnitude speed-up. Rapid SPS computations delivered by emulation offers a massive reduction in the computational resources required to infer the physical properties of galaxies from observed spectra or photometry and simulate galaxy populations under SPS models, whilst maintaining the accuracy required for a range of applications.

astro-ph.IM

The Photometric LSST Astronomical Time-series Classification Challenge (PLAsTiCC): Data set

The Photometric LSST Astronomical Time Series Classification Challenge (PLAsTiCC) is an open data challenge to classify simulated astronomical time-series data in preparation for observations from the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST), which will achieve first light in 2019 and commence its 10-year main survey in 2022. LSST will revolutionize our understanding of the changing sky, discovering and measuring millions of time-varying objects. In this challenge, we pose the question: how well can we classify objects in the sky that vary in brightness from simulated LSST time-series data, with all its challenges of non-representativity? In this note we explain the need for a data challenge to help classify such astronomical sources and describe the PLAsTiCC data set and Kaggle data challenge, noting that while the references are provided for context, they are not needed to participate in the challenge.

astro-ph.IM

Constraints on ionising photon production from the large-scale Lyman-alpha forest

Recent work has shown that the z~2.5 Lyman-alpha forest on large scales encodes information about the galaxy and quasar populations that keep the intergalactic medium photoionized. We present the first forecasts for constraining the populations with data from current and next-generation surveys. At a minimum the forest should tell us whether galaxies or, conversely, quasars dominate the photon production. The number density and clustering strength of the ionising sources might be estimated to sub-10% precision with a DESI-like survey if degeneracies (e.g., with the photon mean-free-path, small-scale clustering power normalization and potentially other astrophysical effects) can be broken by prior information. We demonstrate that, when inhomogeneous ionisation is correctly handled, constraints on dark energy do not degrade.

astro-ph.CO

Constraining Monodromy Inflation

We use cosmic microwave background (CMB) data from the 9-year WMAP release to derive constraints on monodromy inflation, which is characterized by a linear inflaton potential with a periodic modulation. We identify two possible periodic modulations that significantly improve the fit, but it is unclear whether this improvement is associated with a "signal" or with the scatter in the measured angular power spectrum. The unmodulated potential is mildly favored by standard model selection criteria. A modulated inflationary potential can generate substantial primordial non-Gaussianity, of a specific and characteristic form. For the best-fit parameters to the WMAP angular power spectrum, the corresponding non-Gaussianity might be detectable in upcoming CMB data, allowing nontrivial consistency checks on the predictions of a modulated inflationary potential.

astro-ph.CO

Bayesian Analysis of Inflation II: Model Selection and Constraints on Reheating

We discuss the model selection problem for inflationary cosmology. We couple ModeCode, a publicly-available numerical solver for the primordial perturbation spectra, to the nested sampler MultiNest, in order to efficiently compute Bayesian evidence. Particular attention is paid to the specification of physically realistic priors, including the parametrization of the post-inflationary expansion and associated thermalization scale. It is confirmed that while present-day data tightly constrains the properties of the power spectrum, it cannot usefully distinguish between the members of a large class of simple inflationary models. We also compute evidence using a simulated Planck likelihood, showing that while Planck will have more power than WMAP to discriminate between inflationary models, it will not definitively address the inflationary model selection problem on its own. However, Planck will place very tight constraints on any model with more than one observationally-distinct inflationary regime -- e.g. the large- and small-field limits of the hilltop inflation model -- and put useful limits on different reheating scenarios for a given model.

astro-ph.CO

The Herschel-SPIRE Legacy Survey (HSLS): the scientific goals of a shallow and wide submillimeter imaging survey with SPIRE

A large sub-mm survey with Herschel will enable many exciting science opportunities, especially in an era of wide-field optical and radio surveys and high resolution cosmic microwave background experiments. The Herschel-SPIRE Legacy Survey (HSLS), will lead to imaging data over 4000 sq. degrees at 250, 350, and 500 micron. Major Goals of HSLS are: (a) produce a catalog of 2.5 to 3 million galaxies down to 26, 27 and 33 mJy (50% completeness; 5 sigma confusion noise) at 250, 350 and 500 micron, respectively, in the southern hemisphere (3000 sq. degrees) and in an equatorial strip (1000 sq. degrees), areas which have extensive multi-wavelength coverage and are easily accessible from ALMA. Two thirds of the of the sources are expected to be at z > 1, one third at z > 2 and about a 1000 at z > 5. (b) Remove point source confusion in secondary anisotropy studies with Planck and ground-based CMB data. (c) Find at least 1200 strongly lensed bright sub-mm sources leading to a 2% test of general relativity. (d) Identify 200 proto-cluster regions at z of 2 and perform an unbiased study of the environmental dependence of star formation. (e) Perform an unbiased survey for star formation and dust at high Galactic latitude and make a census of debris disks and dust around AGB stars and white dwarfs.

astro-ph.CO

Lecture notes on the physics of cosmic microwave background anisotropies

We review the theory of the temperature anisotropy and polarization of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) radiation, and describe what we have learned from current CMB observations. In particular, we discuss how the CMB is being used to provide precise measurements of the composition and geometry of the observable universe, and to constrain the physics of the early universe. We also briefly review the physics of the small-scale CMB fluctuations generated during and after the epoch of reionization, and which are the target of a new breed of arcminute-resolution instruments.

astro-ph.CO

Cosmological Constraints on f(R) Acceleration Models

Models which accelerate the expansion of the universe through the addition of a function of the Ricci scalar f(R) leave a characteristic signature in the large-scale structure of the universe at the Compton wavelength scale of the extra scalar degree of freedom. We search for such a signature in current cosmological data sets: the WMAP cosmic microwave background (CMB) power spectrum, SNLS supernovae distance measures, the SDSS luminous red galaxy power spectrum, and galaxy-CMB angular correlations. Due to theoretical uncertainties in the nonlinear evolution of f(R) models, the galaxy power spectrum conservatively yields only weak constraints on the models despite the strong predicted signature in the linear matter power spectrum. Currently the tightest constraints involve the modification to the integrated Sachs-Wolfe effect from growth of gravitational potentials during the acceleration epoch. This effect is manifest for large Compton wavelengths in enhanced low multipole power in the CMB and anti-correlation between the CMB and tracers of the potential. They place a bound on the Compton wavelength of the field be less than of order the Hubble scale.

astro-ph

Slow Roll Reconstruction: Constraints on Inflation from the 3 Year WMAP Dataset

We study the constraints on the inflationary parameter space derived from the 3 year WMAP dataset using ``slow roll reconstruction'', using the SDSS galaxy power spectrum to gain further leverage where appropriate. This approach inserts the inflationary slow roll parameters directly into a Monte Carlo Markov chain estimate of the cosmological parameters, and uses the inflationary flow hierarchy to compute the parameters' scale-dependence. We work with the first three parameters (epsilon, eta and xi) and pay close attention to the possibility that the 3 year WMAP dataset contains evidence for a ``running'' spectral index, which is dominated by the xi term. Mirroring the WMAP team's analysis we find that the permitted distribution of xi is broad, and centered away from zero. However, when we require that inflationary parameters yield at least 30 additional e-folds of inflation after the largest observable scales leave the horizon, the bounds on xi tighten dramatically. We make use of the absence of an explicit pivot scale in the slow roll reconstruction formalism to determine the dependence of the computed parameter distributions on the pivot. We show that the choice of pivot has a significant effect on the inferred constraints on the inflationary variables, and the spectral index and running derived from them. Finally, we argue that the next round of cosmological data can be expected to place very stringent constraints on the region of parameter space open to single field models of slow roll inflation.

astro-ph