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Hiranya V. Peiris

Publications and source records attributed to Hiranya V. Peiris.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

pop-cosmos: Redshifts and physical properties of KiDS-1000 galaxies

Principled Bayesian inference of galaxy properties has not previously been performed for wide-area weak lensing surveys with millions of sources. We address this gap by applying the pop-cosmos generative model to perform spectral energy distribution (SED) fitting for 4 million KiDS-1000 galaxies. Calibrated on deep COSMOS2020 photometric data, pop-cosmos specifies a physically-motivated prior over the galaxy population up to $z \simeq 6$ in stellar population synthesis (SPS) parameter space. Using the Speculator SPS emulator with GPU-accelerated MCMC sampling, we perform full posterior inference at 8.2 GPU seconds per galaxy, obtaining joint constraints on galaxy redshifts and physical properties. We validate photometric redshifts against $\sim\!185,\!000$ KiDS galaxies cross-matched to DESI DR1 spectroscopic samples, achieving low bias ($2\times10^{-3}$), scatter ($σ_{\mathrm{MAD}}=0.03$), and outlier fraction (3.2%) for the Bright Galaxy Survey, with comparable performance (bias $3\times10^{-2}$, $σ_{\mathrm{MAD}}=0.05$, 1.0% outliers) for luminous red galaxies (LRGs). Within the LRG sample, we identify massive, dusty, star-forming contaminants at $z \simeq 0.4$ satisfying standard colour selections for quenched populations. We infer trends in stellar mass, star formation, metallicity, and dust across five tomographic redshift bins consistent with established scaling relations. Using specific star formation rate constraints, we identify $\sim$7% of KiDS-1000 galaxies as quenched, versus 37% implied by conservative colour cuts. This enables the construction of weak lensing samples defined by physical properties while mitigating intrinsic alignment systematics and preserving statistical power. Our analysis validates pop-cosmos out-of-sample, establishing it as a scalable approach for galaxy evolution and cosmological analyses with photometric surveys.

astro-ph.GA↗

Design of ALPHA Phase I: A Plasma Haloscope for 10--20 GHz Post-Inflation Axions

The axion is a well-motivated hypothetical particle capable of resolving both the strong CP problem and the dark matter mystery, with recent post-inflationary cosmological simulations favoring masses above 40 μeV. Plasma haloscopes serve as a promising experimental approach to reach theoretically preferred sensitivities in this mass range. ALPHA, hosted at Yale Wright Laboratory, is an international collaboration developing plasma haloscopes to search for QCD dark matter axions. In this letter we present the detailed design and sensitivity projection for the first phase of the ALPHA experiment, which will search the mass range from 10 GHz to 20 GHz (~40 μeV to 80 μeV). This search will make use of wire-array plasma resonators to decouple the physical size from the resonant frequency, a limitation typically faced by traditional microwave cavities, allowing broadband sensitivity approaching KSVZ coupling strengths.

hep-ex↗

Evidence for renormalized instantons in real-time simulations of vacuum decay

While vacuum decay is traditionally described by Euclidean instanton methods, lattice simulations enable real-time modeling of dynamical observables relevant to cosmology and upcoming cold-atom analog experiments. We investigate the relationship between these approaches by extracting ensemble-averaged bubble profiles from zero-temperature simulations of a relativistic scalar field. Our observed profiles differ markedly from the bare Coleman bounce and classical thermal predictions. However, we find that instanton solutions in an appropriately renormalized potential reproduce both the measured profiles and their dependence on the UV cutoff, and predict decay rates consistent with simulations across the parameter range considered. The fact that a single renormalized Euclidean object captures these independent observables provides strong evidence that renormalization accounts for the discrepancy between the two formalisms, and establishes a quantitative link between instanton predictions, lattice simulations, and forthcoming empirical tests of vacuum decay.

hep-th↗

pop-cosmos: Disentangling galaxy properties from observables using data-driven approaches

The physical processes that shape a galaxy's spectrum are strongly degenerate in observations, obscuring which processes act independently. Leveraging the pop-cosmos generative galaxy population model, we investigate how many independent degrees of freedom the rest-frame optical SED contains. We use a $β$-variational autoencoder (VAE) to compress a 16-parameter stellar population synthesis (SPS) description into a disentangled latent representation interpreted through mutual information (MI). We find that five independent dimensions suffice, corresponding to stellar mass, recent star formation, dust, and two degrees of freedom in the ionization state of the gas. Stellar metallicity and stellar age are not among these primary drivers; their spectral effects are distributed across the others rather than independently encoded. By tying each dimension to specific spectral features, this decomposition breaks the star-formation--dust--metallicity degeneracies that limit broadband photometry, and recovers the physical conditions of the gas in typical star-forming galaxies more cleanly than the line-ratio diagnostics in standard use.

astro-ph.GA↗

pop-cosmos: Galaxy size evolution across structural and star-formation classifications in COSMOS-Web

Galaxy sizes are correlated with stellar mass and redshift, as characterised by size scaling relations. The inferred forms of these scaling relations are sensitive to how galaxies are classified -- either by their star formation activity (e.g. specific star-formation rate, sSFR) or by their morphology markers (e.g. bulge-to-total ratio, Sérsic index). We combine stellar mass and sSFR estimates from pop-cosmos (a generative model trained on COSMOS2020 Spitzer IRAC $\textit{Ch.1} <26$) with size and morphology measurements from COSMOS-Web, obtaining $99,369$ galaxies. By investigating the size-mass and the size-redshift relations, we show that: (i) the sSFR/morphology splits give quantitatively different slopes, intercepts, and intrinsic scatter behaviour; (ii) intrinsic scatter depends on structural morphology but not on sSFR, which constrains the galaxy-halo connection; (iii) the quiescent and bulge-dominated size-mass relations both show double-power law breaks, but at different pivot masses, indicating that quenching and structural transformation occur on different time-scales; (iv) the morphology-dependent trends are only recoverable from space-based imaging. Further, the quiescent pivot mass $M_{\ast} \sim 10^{10.7}~\mathrm{M}_{\odot}$ coincides with the mass scale at which AGN (infrared torus) bolometric luminosity fraction peaks in transitioning galaxies, while the bulge-dominated pivot mass $M_{\ast} \sim 10^{11.1}~\mathrm{M}_{\odot}$ coincides with the halo mass at which AGN-driven baryonic redistribution peaks, tracing the interval over which AGN feedback ramps from quenching onset to structural transformation.

astro-ph.GA↗

Rapid and robust simulation-based inference for kilonovae

With the next generation of both electromagnetic and gravitational wave observatories beginning to come online, rapid analysis methods for kilonova data are becoming increasingly important in astronomy. Traditional Bayesian parameter estimation using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is time-consuming and relies on explicit likelihood approximations that can break down when modeling uncertainties are significant. We develop a simulation-based inference (SBI) framework for kilonova parameter estimation using density-estimation likelihood-free inference. The framework uses a Gaussian process emulator trained on $\sim 1300$ POSSIS simulations. We demonstrate that SBI provides a rapid alternative to MCMC that is robust to likelihood misspecification. The standard Gaussian likelihood approximation fails to capture the non-Gaussian, correlated structure of emulator uncertainty; SBI learns this structure directly from forward simulations. Simulation studies show that the SBI method accurately recovers injected parameters, while the MCMC suffers from systematic bias caused by likelihood misspecification. This problem persists when analyzing AT2017gfo, where a subset of the MCMC posteriors pile up at prior boundaries and the SBI posteriors do not. The SBI framework infers a total ejecta mass of $\sim 0.087 M_{\odot}$ dominated by lanthanide-poor ejecta and excludes toroidal and peanut ejecta geometries at the 99th percentile for both components. The SBI framework generates $\sim 2 \times 10^{4}$ posterior samples in seconds.

astro-ph.IM↗

The limits of feedback from active galactic nuclei

We use FLAMINGO to investigate why feedback from active galactic nuclei (AGN) significantly depletes gas in galaxy groups but is ineffective in clusters. We delineate three radial zones: an inner zone where AGN feedback heats halo gas via shocks; an intermediate buoyancy zone where the heated halo gas rises; and an outer zone where the outflow may stall in a termination shock. Heating in the inner zone self-limits because, once the gas is sufficiently hot, shocks become too weak to deposit further entropy. Consequently, outflows have a ceiling entropy value ($360\, {\rm keV\, cm^2}$) that is nearly independent of halo mass. These values (and trends with redshift and feedback variants) are explained using an argument based on the Rankine-Hugoniot relations. Outflows rise at fixed entropy through the buoyancy zone, escaping the halo if the ceiling value is sufficiently elevated over that of the inflowing gas. This condition is satisfied only for halo masses $M_{\rm 200m}<10^{13.7}\,{\rm M_\odot}$, because inflow entropy tracks the virial relation. Variants with stronger (or weaker) feedback have a higher (or lower) entropy ceiling and a correspondingly modified critical mass of $M_{\rm 200m}=10^{14.0}\,{\rm M_\odot}$ (or $10^{13.5}\,{\rm M_\odot}$). In clusters above the critical mass, the increased inflow entropy causes the outflow to stall and potentially shock at the 'splashback' radius. We derive an expression for the time evolution of the virial gas fraction, which shows how lingering gas is reincorporated as the halo virial radius expands. This effect dominates over outflows unless they rejoin the Hubble flow; as a result, virial gas fractions rise as a function of mass starting at $M_{\rm 200m} = 10^{13.0}\,{\rm M_\odot}$. These effects explain why groups have depleted gas, while clusters have close to the cosmic baryon fraction.

astro-ph.GA↗

Thermostats, Not Engines: A New Picture of Halo Gas Regulation

We propose that black hole feedback regulates gas in massive halos by establishing an entropy ceiling; the resulting buoyant gas migrates to the virial radius with no additional energy input required. The FLAMINGO simulations support this picture: at the virial radius, outflow entropy is mass-independent for isotropic thermal feedback but depends on the solid angle of directly heated gas for jet feedback. Above a critical halo mass $M_\rm{crit} \approx 10^{13.5\text{--}14}\, M_\odot$, virial shocks overwhelm the ceiling, predicting rejuvenation of star formation in the most massive galaxies, supported by new low-redshift evidence from star formation rates and morphologies.

astro-ph.CO↗

Large language models are not the problem

If a Large Language Model (LLM) can replicate your scientific contribution, the problem is not the LLM. What does it say about our field that so much of the anxiety about AI comes down to the fear that a machine could do what we do? Perhaps it says we should be doing something better.

astro-ph.IM↗

pop-cosmos: Star formation over 12 Gyr from generative modelling of a deep infrared-selected galaxy catalogue

We study star formation over 12 Gyr using pop-cosmos, a generative model trained on 26-band photometry of 420,000 COSMOS2020 galaxies (IRAC Ch.1 $<26$). The model learns distributions over 16 SPS parameters via score-based diffusion, matching observed colours and magnitudes. We compute the star formation rate density (SFRD) to $z=3.5$ by directly integrating individual galaxy SFRs. The SFRD peaks at $z=1.3\pm0.1$, with peak value $0.08\pm0.01$ M$_{\odot}$ yr$^{-1}$ Mpc$^{-3}$. We classify star-forming (SF) and quiescent (Q) galaxies using specific SFR $<10^{-11}$ yr$^{-1}$, comparing with $NUVrJ$ colour selection. The sSFR criterion yields up to 20% smaller quiescent fractions across $0 0.95$) during the most recent $\sim$300 Myr, then sharp decorrelation with earlier star-forming epochs, marking clear quenching transitions. Massive ($10<\log_{10}(M_*/$M$_{\odot})<11$) galaxies quench on a time-scale of $\sim1$ Gyr, with mass assembly concentrated in their first 3.5 Gyr. Finally, AGN activity (infrared luminosity) peaks as massive ($\sim10^{10.5}$ M$_\odot$) galaxies approach the transition between star-forming and quiescent states, declining sharply once quiescence is established. This provides evidence that AGN feedback operates in a critical regime during the $\sim1$ Gyr quenching transition.

astro-ph.GA↗

Functional Emotions or Situational Contexts? A Discriminating Test from the Mythos Preview System Card

The Claude Mythos Preview system card deploys emotion vectors, sparse autoencoder (SAE) features, and activation verbalisers to study model internals during misaligned behaviour. The two primary toolkits are not jointly reported on the most alignment-relevant episodes. This note identifies two hypotheses that are qualitatively consistent with the published results: that the emotion vectors track functional emotions that causally drive behaviour, or that they are a projection of a richer situational-context structure onto human emotional axes. The hypotheses can be distinguished by cross-referencing the two toolkits on episodes where only one is currently reported: most directly, applying emotion probes to the strategic concealment episodes analysed only with SAE features. If emotion probes show flat activation while SAE features are strongly active, the alignment-relevant structure lies outside the emotion subspace. Which hypothesis is correct determines whether emotion-based monitoring will robustly detect dangerous model behaviour or systematically miss it.

cs.HC↗

pop-cosmos: Forward modeling KiDS-1000 redshift distributions using realistic galaxy populations

The accuracy of the cosmological constraints from Stage~IV galaxy surveys will be limited by how well the galaxy redshift distributions can be inferred. We have addressed this challenging problem for the Kilo-Degree Survey (KiDS) cosmic shear sample by developing a forward-modeling framework with two main ingredients: (1) the \texttt{pop-cosmos} generative model for the evolving galaxy population, calibrated on \textit{Spitzer} IRAC $\textit{Ch.\,1}<26$ galaxies from COSMOS2020; and (2) a data model for noise and selection, machine-learned from the SURFS-based KiDS-Legacy-Like Simulations (SKiLLS). Applying KiDS tomographic binning to our synthetic photometric data, we infer redshift distributions in each of five bins directly from the population and data models, bypassing the need for spectroscopic reweighting. Keeping the data model fixed, we compare results using two different galaxy population models: \texttt{pop-cosmos}; and \texttt{shark}, the semi-analytic galaxy formation model used in SKiLLS. In the first ($0.1<z<0.3$) and last ($0.9<z<1.2$) tomographic bins we find systematic differences in the mean redshifts of $Δz\sim0.05$-$0.1$, comparable to the reported uncertainties from spectroscopic reweighting methods. This work paves the way for accurate redshift distribution calibration for Stage~IV surveys directly through forward modeling, thus providing an independent cross-check on spectroscopic-based calibrations which avoids their selection biases and incompleteness. We will use the \texttt{pop-cosmos} redshift distributions in an upcoming full KiDS cosmology reanalysis.

astro-ph.CO↗

Uniform Rolling: An LSST Observing Cadence Offering Sufficient Survey Uniformity for Comprehensive Cosmological Analysis

The Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) that will be carried out by the NSF-DOE Vera C. Rubin Observatory promises to be the defining survey of the next decade, supplying unprecedented access to the night sky to static science- and time-domain science-focused researchers alike. Maximizing the output of the broad remit of Rubin Observatory science requires a non-trivial survey strategy. For time-domain science, the most promising strategy designed so far is a rolling survey strategy, whereby a subset of the full LSST survey area is observed at higher rate compared with the nominal rate dictated by weather conditions and the observatory's technical constraints. This strategy is now the baseline approach for the LSST as a whole. Focusing on static science (galaxy clustering and weak lensing), we study how these time-domain-optimized rolling strategies affect the depth uniformity at intermediate years of the survey. We characterize the amount of survey area at high risk of being lost in static-science analyses of a baseline rolling LSST dataset due to an insufficient combination of survey contiguity and uniformity. At intermediate data releases, nearly half of the survey could be lost for static science, decreasing the Dark Energy figure of merit by approximately 40\%. We describe additional metrics focused on key analysis tasks, such as photometric redshifts and galaxy clustering. We propose a new strategy that returns the survey to uniformity at key release years, enabling use of the full survey area and restoring our metrics to the values they would have in a non-rolling cadence without loss of time domain data relative to a rolling survey with the same number of rolling cycles. This work has informed the third round of optimization of the survey strategy, and the new uniform rolling strategies have been incorporated into the baseline strategy.

astro-ph.CO↗

Galaxies as stochastic systems: why the next breakthrough in galaxy evolution requires one hundred million spectra

Each galaxy is observed only once along its life, making galaxy evolution fundamentally an inverse statistical problem: time-dependent physics must be inferred from ensembles of single-epoch snapshots. To move beyond descriptive scaling relations toward physical regulation mechanisms of star formation, quenching, chemical enrichment and black hole growth, galaxies must be treated as realizations of a stochastic process whose hyper-parameters (e.g., correlation timescales, burstiness, duty cycles) are inferred hierarchically. This demands both depth and scale: continuum S/N sufficient for absorption-line ages and chemistry, and samples far larger than those in SDSS, DESI, 4MOST or MOONS, which provide either depth or size but not both across $0<z<3$. Once the relevant axes of mass, redshift, environment, structure and evolutionary phase are populated, the requirement naturally rises from $10^7$ to $\sim10^8$ galaxies. This is the regime where stochastic hyper-parameters can be well constrained and where comparisons to simulations and cosmological forward models become limited by theory rather than observations. We outline the science enabled by such a programme and the corresponding requirements for a future ESO wide-field spectroscopic facility capable of delivering tens to hundreds of millions of rest-UV-optical spectra over $0\lesssim z\lesssim3$.

astro-ph.IM↗

pop-cosmos: Insights from generative modeling of a deep, infrared-selected galaxy population

We present an extension of the pop-cosmos model for the evolving galaxy population up to redshift $z\sim6$. The model is trained on distributions of observed colors and magnitudes, from 26-band photometry of $\sim420,000$ galaxies in the COSMOS2020 catalog with Spitzer IRAC $\textit{Ch. 1}<26$. The generative model includes a flexible distribution over 16 stellar population synthesis (SPS) parameters, and a depth-dependent photometric uncertainty model, both represented using score-based diffusion models. We use the trained model to predict scaling relationships for the galaxy population, such as the stellar mass function, star-forming main sequence, and gas-phase and stellar metallicity vs. mass relations, demonstrating reasonable-to-excellent agreement with previously published results. We explore the connection between mid-infrared emission from active galactic nuclei (AGN) and star-formation rate, finding high AGN activity for galaxies above the star-forming main sequence at $1\lesssim z\lesssim 2$. Using the trained population model as a prior distribution, we perform inference of the redshifts and SPS parameters for 429,669 COSMOS2020 galaxies, including 39,588 with publicly available spectroscopic redshifts. The resulting redshift estimates exhibit minimal bias ($\text{median}[Δ_z]=-8\times10^{-4}$), scatter ($σ_\text{MAD}=0.0132$), and outlier fraction ($6.19\%$) for the full $0<z<6$ spectroscopic compilation. These results establish that pop-cosmos can achieve the accuracy and realism needed to forward-model modern wide--deep surveys for Stage IV cosmology. We publicly release pop-cosmos software, mock galaxy catalogs, and COSMOS2020 redshift and SPS parameter posteriors.

astro-ph.GA↗

Cosmological feedback from a halo assembly perspective

The impact of feedback from galaxy formation on cosmological probes is typically quantified in terms of the suppression of the matter power spectrum in hydrodynamical compared to gravity-only simulations. In this paper, we instead study how baryonic feedback impacts halo assembly histories and thereby imprints on cosmological observables. We investigate the sensitivity of the thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect (tSZ) power spectrum, X-ray number counts, weak lensing and kinetic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (kSZ) stacked profiles to halo populations as a function of mass and redshift. We then study the imprint of different feedback implementations in the FLAMINGO suite of cosmological simulations on the assembly histories of these halo populations, as a function of radial scale. We find that kSZ profiles target lower-mass halos ($M_{200\mathrm{m}}\sim 10^{13.1}~\mathrm{M}_\odot$) compared to all other probes considered ($M_{200\mathrm{m}}\sim 10^{15}~\mathrm{M}_\odot$). Feedback is inefficient in high-mass clusters with $\sim 10^{15} \, \mathrm{M}_\odot$ at $z=0$, but was more efficient at earlier times in the same population, with a $\sim 5$-$10\%$ effect on mass at $2 2$). These findings are tied together by noting that, regardless of redshift, feedback most efficiently redistributes baryons when halos reach a mass of $M_{\rm 200m} \simeq {10^{12.8}}\,\mathrm{M}_{\odot}$ and ceases to have any significant effect by the time $M_{\rm 200m} \simeq {10^{15}}\,\mathrm{M}_{\odot}$. We put forward strategies for minimizing sensitivity of lensing analyses to baryonic feedback, and for exploring baryonic resolutions to the unexpectedly low tSZ power in cosmic microwave background observations.

astro-ph.CO↗

Bubbles in a box: Eliminating edge nucleation in cold-atom simulators of vacuum decay

The decay of metastable 'false vacuum' states via bubble nucleation plays a crucial role in many cosmological scenarios. Cold-atom analog experiments will soon provide the first empirical probes of this process, with potentially far-reaching implications for early-Universe cosmology and high-energy physics. However, an inevitable difference between these analog systems and the early Universe is that the former have a boundary. We show, using a combination of Euclidean calculations and real-time lattice simulations, that these boundaries generically cause rapid bubble nucleation on the edge of the experiment, obscuring the bulk nucleation that is relevant for cosmology. We demonstrate that implementing a high-density 'trench' region at the boundary completely eliminates this problem, and recovers the desired cosmological behavior. Our findings are relevant for ongoing efforts to probe vacuum decay in the laboratory, providing a practical solution to a key experimental obstacle.

cond-mat.quant-gas↗