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Hirofumi Ota

Publications and source records attributed to Hirofumi Ota.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

Fixed-level calibration of the Cauchy combination test

The Cauchy combination test (CCT) is widely used because it yields a closed-form combined $p$-value and is known to be asymptotically valid as the nominal level $α\downarrow0$ under broad dependence structures. We study a different asymptotic question: whether the usual Cauchy cutoff remains accurate at an ordinary fixed level when the number $K$ of combined $p$-values grows under dependence. Under a canonical one-factor equicorrelated Gaussian copula model, we show that the raw CCT is generally not asymptotically exact at fixed $α$. With fixed positive correlation, the statistic converges to a random latent-factor limit, so there is no universal fixed-level reference law. When the common correlation $ρ_K$ weakens with $K$, fixed-level behaviour is governed by the boundary-layer scale $s_K=\sqrt{ρ_K}(\log K)^{3/2}$, and the raw CCT is asymptotically exact if and only if $ρ_K(\log K)^3\to0$. Because the size distortion arises entirely from the reference law and not from the statistic, it can be corrected without modifying the test statistic itself. We propose the boundary-layer calibrated CCT (BL-CCT), which replaces the standard Cauchy reference by a one-parameter Gaussian-smoothed Cauchy family. Unlike recent variants that modify the test statistic, BL-CCT leaves the statistic unchanged and corrects only the reference law. BL-CCT is asymptotically exact under the weaker condition $ρ_K\log K\to0$ and provides a useful finite-$K$ approximation on bounded boundary layers. We also conduct several power analyses: although BL-CCT only raises the cutoff, it incurs no first-order power loss relative to the raw CCT on the exactness scale, under local dense, sparse, and dense Gaussian alternatives. Numerical experiments support the calibration theory.

math.ST

CITE: Anytime-Valid Statistical Inference in LLM Self-Consistency

Large language models often improve reasoning by sampling multiple outputs and aggregating their final answers, but precise and efficient control of error levels remains a challenging task. In particular, deciding when to stop sampling remains difficult when the stopping rule is data-dependent and the set of possible answers is not known in advance. We study anytime-valid certification of a prespecified target answer as the unique mode of the model's response distribution, a guarantee distinct from answer correctness. We propose the Certification by Intersection-union Testing with E-processes (CITE) algorithm, which provably controls false certification at any prescribed level under arbitrary data-driven stopping, without requiring prior knowledge of the answer category set. We also prove an category-set-size-free stopping-time rate, establish matching minimax lower bounds up to constants in the main regime, and extend the construction to confidence-weighted voting. Simulations and LLM self-consistency experiments show empirical error control and improved certification in diffuse-tail settings.

stat.ML

Finite-Sample Inference for Sparsely Permuted Linear Regression

We study a linear observation model with an unknown permutation called \textit{permuted/shuffled linear regression}, where responses and covariates are mismatched and the permutation forms a discrete, factorial-size parameter. The permutation is a key component of the data-generating process, yet its statistical investigation remains challenging due to its discrete nature. We develop a general statistical inference framework on the permutation and regression coefficients. First, we introduce a localization step that reduces the permutation space to a small candidate set building on recent advances in the repro samples method, whose miscoverage decays polynomially with the number of Monte Carlo samples. Then, based on this localized set, we provide statistical inference procedures: a conditional Monte Carlo test of permutation structures with valid finite-sample Type-I error control. We also develop coefficient inference that remains valid under alignment uncertainty of permutations. For computational purposes, we develop a linear assignment problem computable in polynomial time and demonstrate that, with high probability, the solution is equivalent to that of the conventional least squares with large computational cost. Extensions to partially permuted designs and ridge regularization are further discussed. Extensive simulations and an application to air-quality data corroborate finite-sample validity, strong power to detect mismatches, and practical scalability.

math.ST

Hypothesis Test and Confidence Analysis with Wasserstein Distance on General Dimension

We develop a general framework for statistical inference with the 1-Wasserstein distance. Recently, the Wasserstein distance has attracted considerable attention and has been widely applied to various machine learning tasks because of its excellent properties. However, hypothesis tests and a confidence analysis for the Wasserstein distance have not been established in a general multivariate setting. This is because the limit distribution of the empirical distribution with the Wasserstein distance is unavailable without strong restriction. To address this problem, in this study, we develop a novel non-asymptotic Gaussian approximation for the empirical 1-Wasserstein distance. Using the approximation method, we develop a hypothesis test and confidence analysis for the empirical 1-Wasserstein distance. Additionally, we provide a theoretical guarantee and an efficient algorithm for the proposed approximation. Our experiments validate its performance numerically.

math.ST

Quantile regression approach to conditional mode estimation

In this paper, we consider estimation of the conditional mode of an outcome variable given regressors. To this end, we propose and analyze a computationally scalable estimator derived from a linear quantile regression model and develop asymptotic distributional theory for the estimator. Specifically, we find that the pointwise limiting distribution is a scale transformation of Chernoff's distribution despite the presence of regressors. In addition, we consider analytical and subsampling-based confidence intervals for the proposed estimator. We also conduct Monte Carlo simulations to assess the finite sample performance of the proposed estimator together with the analytical and subsampling confidence intervals. Finally, we apply the proposed estimator to predicting the net hourly electrical energy output using Combined Cycle Power Plant Data.

math.ST