arXiv subjects

Hiroki Sayama

Publications and source records attributed to Hiroki Sayama.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2017

NetSciEd: Network Science and Education for the Interconnected World

This short article presents a summary of the NetSciEd (Network Science and Education) initiative that aims to address the need for curricula, resources, accessible materials, and tools for introducing K-12 students and the general public to the concept of networks, a crucial framework in understanding complexity. NetSciEd activities include (1) the NetSci High educational outreach program (since 2010), which connects high school students and their teachers with regional university research labs and provides them with the opportunity to work on network science research projects; (2) the NetSciEd symposium series (since 2012), which brings network science researchers and educators together to discuss how network science can help and be integrated into formal and informal education; and (3) the Network Literacy: Essential Concepts and Core Ideas booklet (since 2014), which was created collaboratively and subsequently translated into 18 languages by an extensive group of network science researchers and educators worldwide.

cs.CY↗

arXiv2017

How mutation alters fitness of cooperation in networked evolutionary games

Cooperation is ubiquitous in every level of living organisms. It is known that spatial (network) structure is a viable mechanism for cooperation to evolve. Until recently, it has been difficult to predict whether cooperation can evolve at a network (population) level. To address this problem, Pinheiro et al. proposed a numerical metric, called Average Gradient of Selection (AGoS) in 2012. AGoS can characterize and forecast the evolutionary fate of cooperation at a population level. However, stochastic mutation of strategies was not considered in the analysis of AGoS. Here we analyzed the evolution of cooperation using AGoS where mutation may occur to strategies of individuals in networks. Our analyses revealed that mutation always has a negative effect on the evolution of cooperation regardless of the fraction of cooperators and network structures. Moreover, we found that mutation affects the fitness of cooperation differently on different social network structures.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2017

Predicting stock market movements using network science: An information theoretic approach

A stock market is considered as one of the highly complex systems, which consists of many components whose prices move up and down without having a clear pattern. The complex nature of a stock market challenges us on making a reliable prediction of its future movements. In this paper, we aim at building a new method to forecast the future movements of Standard & Poor's 500 Index (S&P 500) by constructing time-series complex networks of S&P 500 underlying companies by connecting them with links whose weights are given by the mutual information of 60-minute price movements of the pairs of the companies with the consecutive 5,340 minutes price records. We showed that the changes in the strength distributions of the networks provide an important information on the network's future movements. We built several metrics using the strength distributions and network measurements such as centrality, and we combined the best two predictors by performing a linear combination. We found that the combined predictor and the changes in S&P 500 show a quadratic relationship, and it allows us to predict the amplitude of the one step future change in S&P 500. The result showed significant fluctuations in S&P 500 Index when the combined predictor was high. In terms of making the actual index predictions, we built ARIMA models. We found that adding the network measurements into the ARIMA models improves the model accuracy. These findings are useful for financial market policy makers as an indicator based on which they can interfere with the markets before the markets make a drastic change, and for quantitative investors to improve their forecasting models.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2017

Invasion of cooperation in scale-free networks: Accumulated vs. average payoffs

It is well known that cooperation cannot be an evolutionary stable strategy for a non-iterative game in a well-mixed population. In contrast, structured populations favor cooperation since cooperators can benefit each other by forming local clusters. Previous studies have shown that scale-free networks strongly promote cooperation. However, little is known about the invasion mechanism of cooperation in scale-free networks. To study microscopic and macroscopic behaviors of cooperators' invasion, we conducted computational experiments of the evolution of cooperation in scale-free networks where, starting from all defectors, cooperators can spontaneously emerge by mutation. Since the evolutionary dynamics are influenced by the definition of fitness, we tested two commonly adopted fitness functions: accumulated payoff and average payoff. Simulation results show that cooperation is strongly enhanced with the accumulated payoff fitness compared to the average payoff fitness. However, the difference between the two functions decreases as the average degree increases. As the average degree increases, cooperation decreases with the accumulated payoff fitness, while it increases with the average payoff fitness. Moreover, with the average payoff fitness, low-degree nodes play a more important role in spreading cooperative strategies compared to the case of the accumulated payoff fitness.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2015

Estimation of Laplacian spectra of direct and strong product graphs

Calculating a product of multiple graphs has been studied in mathematics, engineering, computer science, and more recently in network science, particularly in the context of multilayer networks. One of the important questions to be addressed in this area is how to characterize spectral properties of a product graph using those of its factor graphs. While several such characterizations have already been obtained analytically (mostly for adjacency spectra), characterization of Laplacian spectra of direct product and strong product graphs has remained an open problem. Here we develop practical methods to estimate Laplacian spectra of direct and strong product graphs from spectral properties of their factor graphs using a few heuristic assumptions. Numerical experiments showed that the proposed methods produced reasonable estimation with percentage errors confined within a +/-10% range for most eigenvalues.

cs.DM↗

arXiv2015

Transitions between homophilic and heterophilic modes of cooperation

Cooperation is ubiquitous in biological and social systems. Previous studies revealed that a preference toward similar appearance promotes cooperation, a phenomenon called tag-mediated cooperation or communitarian cooperation. This effect is enhanced when a spatial structure is incorporated, because space allows agents sharing an identical tag to regroup to form locally cooperative clusters. In spatially distributed settings, one can also consider migration of organisms, which has a potential to further promote evolution of cooperation by facilitating spatial clustering. However, it has not yet been considered in spatial tag-mediated cooperation models. Here we show, using computer simulations of a spatial model of evolutionary games with organismal migration, that tag-based segregation and homophilic cooperation arise for a wide range of parameters. In the meantime, our results also show another evolutionarily stable outcome, where a high level of heterophilic cooperation is maintained in spatially well-mixed patterns. We found that these two different forms of tag-mediated cooperation appear alternately as the parameter for temptation to defect is increased.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2015

What are essential concepts about networks?

Networks have become increasingly relevant to everyday life as human society has become increasingly connected. Attaining a basic understanding of networks has thus become a necessary form of literacy for people (and for youths in particular). At the NetSci 2014 conference, we initiated a year-long process to develop an educational resource that concisely summarizes essential concepts about networks that can be used by anyone of school age or older. The process involved several brainstorming sessions on one key question: "What should every person living in the 21st century know about networks by the time he/she finishes secondary education?" Different sessions reached diverse participants, which included professional researchers in network science, educators, and high-school students. The generated ideas were connected by the students to construct a concept network. We examined community structure in the concept network to group ideas into a set of important themes, which we refined through discussion into seven essential concepts. The students played a major role in this development process by providing insights and perspectives that were often unrecognized by researchers and educators. The final result, "Network Literacy: Essential Concepts and Core Ideas", is now available as a booklet in several different languages from http://tinyurl.com/networkliteracy .

cs.SI↗

arXiv2015

Mental Disorder Recovery Correlated with Centralities and Interactions on an Online Social Network

Recent research has established both a theoretical basis and strong empirical evidence that effective social behavior plays a beneficial role in the maintenance of physical and psychological well-being of people. To test whether social behavior and well-being are also associated in online communities, we studied the correlations between the recovery of patients with mental disorders and their behaviors in online social media. As the source of the data related to the social behavior and progress of mental recovery, we used PatientsLikeMe (PLM), the world's first open-participation research platform for the development of patient-centered health outcome measures. We first constructed an online social network structure based on patient-to-patient ties among 200 patients obtained from PLM. We then characterized patients' online social activities by measuring the numbers of "posts and views" and "helpful marks" each patient obtained. The patients' recovery data were obtained from their self-reported status information that was also available on PLM. We found that some node properties (in-degree, eigenvector centrality and PageRank) and the two online social activity measures were significantly correlated with patients' recovery. Furthermore, we re-collected the patients' recovery data two months after the first data collection. We found significant correlations between the patients' social behaviors and the second recovery data, which were collected two months apart. Our results indicated that social interactions in online communities such as PLM were significantly associated with the current and future recoveries of patients with mental disorders.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2015

Social Diffusion and Global Drift on Networks

We study a mathematical model of social diffusion on a symmetric weighted network where individual nodes' states gradually assimilate to local social norms made by their neighbors' average states. Unlike physical diffusion, this process is not state conservational and thus the global state of the network (i.e., sum of node states) will drift. The asymptotic average node state will be the average of initial node states weighted by their strengths. Here we show that, while the global state is not conserved in this process, the inner product of strength and state vectors is conserved instead, and perfect positive correlation between node states and local averages of their self/neighbor strength ratios always results in upward (or at least neutral) global drift. We also show that the strength assortativity negatively affects the speed of homogenization. Based on these findings, we propose an adaptive link weight adjustment method to achieve the highest upward global drift by increasing the strength-state correlation. The effectiveness of the method was confirmed through numerical simulations and implications for real-world social applications are discussed.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2015

Complexity Measures and Concept Learning

The nature of concept learning is a core question in cognitive science. Theories must account for the relative difficulty of acquiring different concepts by supervised learners. For a canonical set of six category types, two distinct orderings of classification difficulty have been found. One ordering, which we call paradigm-specific, occurs when adult human learners classify objects with easily distinguishable characteristics such as size, shape, and shading. The general order occurs in all other known cases: when adult humans classify objects with characteristics that are not readily distinguished (e.g., brightness, saturation, hue); for children and monkeys; and when categorization difficulty is extrapolated from errors in identification learning. The paradigm-specific order was found to be predictable mathematically by measuring the logical complexity of tasks, i.e., how concisely the solution can be represented by logical rules. However, logical complexity explains only the paradigm-specific order but not the general order. Here we propose a new difficulty measurement, information complexity, that calculates the amount of uncertainty remaining when a subset of the dimensions are specified. This measurement is based on Shannon entropy. We show that, when the metric extracts minimal uncertainties, this new measurement predicts the paradigm-specific order for the canonical six category types, and when the metric extracts average uncertainties, this new measurement predicts the general order. Moreover, for learning category types beyond the canonical six, we find that the minimal-uncertainty formulation correctly predicts the paradigm-specific order as well or better than existing metrics (Boolean complexity and GIST) in most cases.

cs.IT↗

arXiv2014

NetSci High: Bringing Network Science Research to High Schools

We present NetSci High, our NSF-funded educational outreach program that connects high school students who are underrepresented in STEM (Science Technology Engineering and Mathematics), and their teachers, with regional university research labs and provides them with the opportunity to work with researchers and graduate students on team-based, year-long network science research projects, culminating in a formal presentation at a network science conference. This short paper reports the content and materials that we have developed to date, including lesson plans and tools for introducing high school students and teachers to network science; empirical evaluation data on the effect of participation on students' motivation and interest in pursuing STEM careers; the application of professional development materials for teachers that are intended to encourage them to use network science concepts in their lesson plans and curriculum; promoting district-level interest and engagement; best practices gained from our experiences; and the future goals for this project and its subsequent outgrowth.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

Visualizing the "Heartbeat" of a City with Tweets

Describing the dynamics of a city is a crucial step to both understanding the human activity in urban environments and to planning and designing cities accordingly. Here we describe the collective dynamics of New York City and surrounding areas as seen through the lens of Twitter usage. In particular, we observe and quantify the patterns that emerge naturally from the hourly activities in different areas of New York City, and discuss how they can be used to understand the urban areas. Using a dataset that includes more than 6 million geolocated Twitter messages we construct a movie of the geographic density of tweets. We observe the diurnal "heartbeat" of the NYC area. The largest scale dynamics are the waking and sleeping cycle and commuting from residential communities to office areas in Manhattan. Hourly dynamics reflect the interplay of commuting, work and leisure, including whether people are preoccupied with other activities or actively using Twitter. Differences between weekday and weekend dynamics point to changes in when people wake and sleep, and engage in social activities. We show that by measuring the average distances to the heart of the city one can quantify the weekly differences and the shift in behavior during weekends. We also identify locations and times of high Twitter activity that occur because of specific activities. These include early morning high levels of traffic as people arrive and wait at air transportation hubs, and on Sunday at the Meadowlands Sports Complex and Statue of Liberty. We analyze the role of particular individuals where they have large impacts on overall Twitter activity. Our analysis points to the opportunity to develop insight into both geographic social dynamics and attention through social media analysis.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2014

Social diffusion and global drift in adaptive social networks

Social contagion has been studied in various contexts. Many instances of social contagion can be modeled as an infection process where a specific state (adoption of product, fad, knowledge, behavior, etc.) spreads from individual to individual through links between them. In the meantime, other forms of social contagion may better be understood as a diffusion process where the state of an individual tends to assimilate with the social norm (i.e., local average state) within his/her neighborhood. Unlike infection scenarios where influence is nonlinear, unidirectional, fast, and potentially disruptive, social diffusion is linear, bidirectional, gradual, and converging. The distance between an individual's state and his/her neighbors' average state always decreases, and thus a homogeneous global state is guaranteed to be the network's stable equilibrium state in the long run. This does not sound as intriguing or exciting as infection dynamics, which might be why there are very few studies on mathematical models of social diffusion processes. Here, this study attempts to shed new light on an unrecognized characteristic of social diffusion, i.e., non-trivial drift it can cause to the network's global average state. Although somewhat counterintuitive, such global drift is indeed possible because, unlike physical diffusion processes, social diffusion processes are not conservational. In what follows, a mathematical model of social diffusion will be presented to explain the mechanism of this phenomenon, and some possible collective actions for influencing the direction of global drift will be proposed. The relevance of social diffusion to individual and collective improvement will be discussed briefly, with an emphasis on educational applications.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2014

Studying Collective Human Decision Making and Creativity with Evolutionary Computation

We report a summary of our interdisciplinary research project "Evolutionary Perspective on Collective Decision Making" that was conducted through close collaboration between computational, organizational and social scientists at Binghamton University. We redefined collective human decision making and creativity as evolution of ecologies of ideas, where populations of ideas evolve via continual applications of evolutionary operators such as reproduction, recombination, mutation, selection, and migration of ideas, each conducted by participating humans. Based on this evolutionary perspective, we generated hypotheses about collective human decision making using agent-based computer simulations. The hypotheses were then tested through several experiments with real human subjects. Throughout this project, we utilized evolutionary computation (EC) in non-traditional ways---(1) as a theoretical framework for reinterpreting the dynamics of idea generation and selection, (2) as a computational simulation model of collective human decision making processes, and (3) as a research tool for collecting high-resolution experimental data of actual collaborative design and decision making from human subjects. We believe our work demonstrates untapped potential of EC for interdisciplinary research involving human and social dynamics.

cs.NE↗

arXiv2014

Four Classes of Morphogenetic Collective Systems

We studied the roles of morphogenetic principles---heterogeneity of components, dynamic differentiation/re-differentiation of components, and local information sharing among components---in the self-organization of morphogenetic collective systems. By incrementally introducing these principles to collectives, we defined four distinct classes of morphogenetic collective systems. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted using an extended version of the Swarm Chemistry model that was equipped with dynamic differentiation/re-differentiation and local information sharing capabilities. Self-organization of swarms was characterized by several kinetic and topological measurements, the latter of which were facilitated by a newly developed network-based method. Results of simulations revealed that, while heterogeneity of components had a strong impact on the structure and behavior of the swarms, dynamic differentiation/re-differentiation of components and local information sharing helped the swarms maintain spatially adjacent, coherent organization.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2014

Evolution of Fairness in the Not Quite Ultimatum Game

The Ultimatum Game (UG) is an economic game where two players (proposer and responder) decide how to split a certain amount of money. While traditional economic theories based on rational decision making predict that the proposer should make a minimal offer and the responder should accept it, human subjects tend to behave more fairly in UG. Previous studies suggested that extra information such as reputation, empathy, or spatial structure is needed for fairness to evolve in UG. Here we show that fairness can evolve without additional information if players make decisions probabilistically and may continue interactions when the offer is rejected, which we call the Not Quite Ultimatum Game (NQUG). Evolutionary simulations of NQUG showed that the probabilistic decision making contributes to the increase of proposers' offer amounts to avoid rejection, while the repetition of the game works to responders' advantage because they can wait until a good offer comes. These simple extensions greatly promote evolution of fairness in both proposers' offers and responders' acceptance thresholds.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2014

Theoretical investigation on the Schelling's critical neighborhood demand

We derived the critical neighborhood demand in the Schelling's segregation model by studying the conditions for which a chain reaction of migrations of unsatisfied agents occurs. The essence of Schelling dynamics was approximated in two simplified models: (1) a random walk model for the initial stage of the migrations to illustrate the power-law behavior of chain reaction lengths under critical conditions, and (2) a two-room model for the whole process to represent a non-spatial version of segregation dynamics in the Schelling model. Our theoretical results showed good agreements with numerical results obtained from agent-based simulations.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2014

A state equation for the Schelling's segregation model

An aspatial version for the famous Schelling's segregation model has recently been proposed, which, called two-room model, is still in an agent-based format like the original Schelling model. In the present study, we propose a new, state equation version of the Schelling model. The new equation is based on the two-room model and is derived in terms of a set of discrete maps. Fixed point solutions for the new equation are found analytically and confirmed numerically. Especially, we show that the extremely simple state equations can reasonably reveal the essence of the Schelling dynamics: integration, segregation and tipping. In addition to the fixed point solutions, periodic solutions are identified and conditions of the limit cycles are derived analytically.

nlin.AO↗