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Hiromichi Tagawa

Publications and source records attributed to Hiromichi Tagawa.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
arXiv2026

Gravitational Wave Astronomy With TianQin

The opening of the gravitational wave window has significantly enhanced our capacity to explore the universe's most extreme and dynamic sector. In the mHz frequency range, a diverse range of compact objects, from the most massive black holes at the farthest reaches of the Universe to the lightest white dwarfs in our cosmic backyard, generate a complex and dynamic symphony of gravitational wave signals. Once recorded by gravitational wave detectors, these unique fingerprints have the potential to decipher the birth and growth of cosmic structures over a wide range of scales, from stellar binaries and stellar clusters to galaxies and large-scale structures. The TianQin space-borne gravitational wave mission is scheduled for launch in the 2030s, with an operational lifespan of five years. It will facilitate pivotal insights into the history of our universe. This document presents a concise overview of the detectable sources of TianQin, outlining their characteristics, the challenges they present, and the expected impact of the TianQin observatory on our understanding of them.

astro-ph.GA↗
arXiv2026

Properties of black hole mergers in disks of active galactic nuclei

Ground-based gravitational wave (GW) observatories have detected approximately 200 binary black hole (BH) mergers. The astrophysical origin of these events are debated, with evidence suggesting that at least a subset originated from dynamic environments characterized by frequent close encounters. Accretion disks in active galactic nuclei (AGNs) are of particular interest, as certain observed features could be more readily produced within such environments. In this paper, we investigate the expected properties of mergers in these environments, and their dependence on various parameters, using one-dimensional $N$-body simulations combined with a comprehensive semi-analytical model. In our fiducial model, the distributions of masses and mass ratios ($q$) are similar to those observed. However, they depend strongly on the lifetime and density of the AGN disk and on the number and accretion efficiency of BHs, with higher masses predicted as these quantities increase. The most massive mergers, such as GW231123, can be produced either by efficient gas accretion or by hierarchical mergers among $\geq 3$ generations of BHs. The observed negative correlation between $q$ and the average effective spin ($χ_{\rm eff}$), along with the positive correlation between $χ_{\rm eff}$ and the chirp mass ($M_{\rm chirp}$), can be explained by a combination of efficient gas accretion, which promotes spin alignment, and hierarchical mergers, which produce high-$|χ_{\rm eff}|$ and low-$q$ binaries. Hierarchical mergers can also explain the negative correlation between $q$ and the dispersion of $χ_{\rm eff}$, as well as the positive correlation between $|χ_{\rm eff}|$ and $M_{\rm chirp}$. We present a comprehensive study on how the expected distribution of each of these quantities depends on model parameters and assumptions, which will aid the interpretation of observed GW population properties.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2026

Electromagnetic Flares from Compact-Object Mergers in AGN Disks: Signatures and Predictions

Accretion disks in active galactic nuclei (AGN) are promising sites for mergers of stellar-mass black holes (BHs) detectable via gravitational waves (GWs). These environments facilitate both in-situ formation and dynamical capture of compact objects, and their subsequent mergers. The uncertain origin of GW events detected by LIGO, Virgo and KAGRA motivates searching for accompanying electromagnetic (EM) signatures. Here we investigate post-merger EM flares associated with jets launched from merger remnants, as well as from the shocked ambient gas as the jet breaks out of the disk. We find that jet breakout produces luminous gamma-ray emission, detectable with MeV-band telescopes. Cooling emission from a shocked circum-BH minidisk, winds and background AGN-disk peaks in the UV and optical, with durations ranging from about an hour to a month, and can be identified through year-long monitoring of $\sim10^3$ AGNs with luminosities ranging from $\sim 10^{44}$ to $\sim 10^{45}~{\rm erg~s^{-1}}$. With a single set of parameters, this post-merger jet model produces gamma-ray, hard X-ray and optical flares similar to those claimed to be associated with GW events. Furthermore, by incorporating a transition from a high- to low-angular-momentum accretion state after the merger, the model avoids excessive BH growth, alleviating tensions with hyper-Eddington accretion scenarios.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2026

Recoil-regulated extreme mass-ratio inspirals in AGN disks

Extreme mass-ratio inspirals (EMRIs) are among the primary targets of future space-based gravitational-wave observatories, such as LISA, TianQin, and Taiji. Active galactic nucleus (AGN) disks provide a gas-rich environment in which stellar-mass black holes can migrate toward central supermassive black holes and form EMRIs. Previous studies of this ``wet'' channel have largely neglected stellar interactions within the disk. Here we show that binary formation, hierarchical mergers, and recoil kicks fundamentally regulate wet EMRI formation in AGN disks. Using semi-analytical AGN disk models combined with Monte Carlo simulations across supermassive black hole masses of $10^5$--$10^7M_\odot$ and Eddington ratios of $10^{-3}$-1, we find that recoil kicks from mergers and binary--single interactions repeatedly lift stellar-mass black holes out of the disk plane, temporarily interrupting migration and strongly suppressing EMRI formation in much of parameter space. Detectable EMRIs are therefore preferentially produced in young AGNs, typically within $\sim$ 10-20Myr of disk formation, and often involve merger-grown secondary black holes. We predict LISA detection rates of $\sim$ 1-30yr$^{-1}$, with the observable population dominated by low-mass AGNs and sensitive to the poorly constrained demographics of faint active nuclei. Our results identify stellar interactions as a key ingredient in the evolution of compact objects in AGN disks and show that future EMRI observations can probe both AGN disk physics and the low-mass AGN population.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2026

Probing Active Galactic Nuclei and Measuring the Hubble constant with Extreme-Mass-Ratio Inspirals

Extreme-mass-ratio inspirals (EMRIs) carry valuable information about their surrounding astrophysical environments. Over the course of their long-term evolution, interactions between the secondary object and the accretion disk can produce observable effects on both the orbital evolution and the emitted gravitational waveform. Based on the modifications to the companion's orbital evolution induced by the accretion disk environment, we investigate the feasibility of identifying the presence of accretion disk environmental effects in EMRI systems using gravitational wave signals. Within a Bayesian framework, we analyze the capability of EMRI systems with multiple parameter configurations to distinguish accretion disk environmental effects. Our results show that, under the $α$-disk model, all injected events can successfully identify the environment in which the EMRIs reside. Furthermore, we examined the improvement in the precision of Hubble constant measurements using the dark siren method after correctly identifying the accretion disk environment and constraining the relevant disk parameters. Constraining these environmental parameters may further deepen our understanding of the host environment, thereby enabling a more reliable inference of the physical properties of the accretion disk and its associated luminosity and ultimately improving the measurement of cosmological parameters. We find that the measurement precision for a single event can improve by as much as $20\%$. This work highlights the necessity of incorporating environmental effects into future EMRI data analysis. Proper modeling of such effects not only helps identify EMRI systems embedded in accretion disk environments but also further improves the precision of gravitational wave cosmological parameter inference.

gr-qc↗
arXiv2026

Evidence for a Delayed UV Counterpart to X-ray Quasi-periodic Eruptions in Ansky

X-ray quasi-periodic eruptions (QPEs) represent a novel population of extreme, repeating nuclear transients whose physical origins remain debated. A defining characteristic of QPEs has been their exclusive detection in the X-ray band, with a notable absence of correlated multi-wavelength counterparts. Here we report the first detection of a recurrent UV response temporally coupled to the X-ray QPE signal in the source Ansky/ZTF19acnskyy. The UV emission displays coherent periodic modulations over five consecutive cycles, systematically lagging the X-ray eruptions by $0.96^{+0.38}_{-0.39}$ days, with a cross-correlation coefficient of $r_{\rm max} \sim 0.6$. We suggest that the detectability of this corresponding signal may be enabled by Ansky's unusually long recurrence timescale, which could reduce the temporal smearing of the UV response seen in more rapid QPEs. The observed delay may correspond to a diffusion timescale associated with heated blobs. However, we cannot exclude the possibility that the lag corresponds to the light-crossing time associated with X-ray irradiation that originates near the central black hole and propagates to the outer UV-emitting region. While numerous QPE models have been proposed, any viable model for Ansky must be able to simultaneously explain the presence of a UV counterpart, its measured time lag, and the previously observed steadily increasing recurrence period.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2026

LVK S241125n: Massive Binary Black Hole Merger Produces Gamma Ray Burst in Active Galactic Nucleus Disk

Recently, the gravitational-wave (GW) event S241125n, detected by LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA (LVK), has been reported to coincide with a candidate detected by Swift-BAT/GUANO and an X-ray candidate found by FXT onboard of Einstein Probe (EP) and confirmed by Swift-XRT. We estimate that the joint false alarm rate (FAR) for the three candidates is 1 / 30 yr and that the corresponding false alarm probability (FAP) is $\mathrm{FAP}_{\rm triple} = 0.037$ ($1.8 σ$). The coincidence between the GW and GRB could be an interesting test of their origin and open attractive opportunities for multi-messenger observations, if they are actually associated. Motivated by this, we propose a theoretical model in which a binary black hole (BBH) merger occurs within an active galactic nucleus (AGN) disk. The typically massive and significantly kicked merger remnant accretes disk material at hyper-Eddington rates, and the resulting jet could lead to the GRB associated with the GW event. As the jet interacts with the gas in the AGN disk, the shock breakout produces a Comptonized spectrum, consistent with an unusually soft photon index of the GRB prompt emission observed by Swift-BAT following LVK S241125n. Meanwhile, strong absorption and dust extinction of the afterglow by the high column density typical of AGN disks could explain the unusually hard spectrum observed in the X-ray band by EP, as well as the non-detection of an optical counterpart. Our model is predictive, and we highlight the importance of further constraining the orbital eccentricity of the merger and conducting deep-field observations of the host galaxy to test our explanation.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2026

Distinguishing the Origin of Eccentric Black Hole Mergers with Gravitational-wave Spin Measurements

It remains an open question whether the binary black hole mergers observed with gravitational-wave detectors originate from the evolution of isolated massive binary stars or were dynamically driven by perturbations from the environment. Recent evidence for non-zero orbital eccentricity in a handful of events is seen as support for a non-negligible fraction of the population experiencing external driving of the merger. However, it is unclear from which formation channel eccentric binary black-hole mergers would originate: dense star clusters, hierarchical field triples, active galactic nuclei, or wide binaries in the Galaxy could all be culprits. Here, we investigate whether the spin properties of eccentric mergers could be used to break this degeneracy. Using the fact that different formation channels are predicted to either produce eccentric mergers with mutually aligned or randomly oriented black-hole spins, we investigate how many confident detections would be needed in order for the two models to be statistically distinguishable. If a few percent of binary black hole mergers retain measurable eccentricity in the bandwidth of ground-based detectors, we report a $\sim9\,\%$ chance that we could confidently distinguish both models (Bayes factor $\ln\mathcal{B}>3$) after the fifth observing run of the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA detector network, $\sim63\,\%$ for LIGO A#, and $\sim98\,\%$ for the Einstein Telescope and Cosmic Explorer.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2025

Gravitational Wave Phase shifts of black hole mergers in AGN Disks

Ground-based gravitational wave (GW) detectors have discovered about 200 compact object mergers. The astrophysical origins of these events are highly debated, and it is possible that at least a fraction of them originate from dynamical environments. Among these, the disks of active galactic nuclei (AGN) are particularly interesting as promising environments, as some observed properties may be more readily produced there. When compact objects merge in these environments, acceleration from the central supermassive black hole (SMBH) or nearby companions is inevitable. Such acceleration induces a phase shift in the observed GW waveforms, which can serve as a useful tool to distinguish the underlying merging environments for each GW event. In this paper, we investigate the expected distribution of such acceleration-induced GW phase shifts, using a semi-analytical model combined with a one-dimensional AGN population synthesis code. We find significant contributions from three-body interactions involving a nearby third object. Our results indicate that the GW phase shift is likely to be larger compared to other channels, making it distinguishable by future GW facilities such as TianQin, DECIGO, Taiji, Einstein Telescope, and Cosmic Explorer. Interestingly, a notable fraction of mergers in fact exhibit a significant GW phase shift ($\gtrsim~{\rm 1\ rad}$) at frequencies above $10~{\rm Hz}$, which could even be detectable by current GW detectors such as LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA. Additionally, if gas-hardening during three-body interactions is taken into account, the GW frequency can be boosted to $\gtrsim 10~{\rm Hz}$, potentially further aiding in the detection of the phase shift.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2025

What Determines the Maximum Mass of AGN-assisted Black Hole Mergers?

The origin of merging binary black holes detected through gravitational waves remains a fundamental question in astrophysics. While stellar evolution imposes an upper mass limit of about 50 solar mass for black holes, some observed mergers--most notably GW190521--involve significantly more massive components, suggesting alternative formation channels. Here we investigate the maximum masses attainable by black hole mergers within active galactic nucleus (AGN) disks. Using a comprehensive semi-analytic model incorporating 27 binary and environmental parameters, we explore the role of AGN disk conditions in shaping the upper end of the black hole mass spectrum. We find that AGN disk lifetime is the dominant factor, with high-mass mergers (>200 solar mass) only possible if disks persist for ~40 Myr. The joint electromagnetic observation of an AGN-assisted merger could therefore lead to a direct measurement of the age of an AGN disk.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2025

GW200208_222617 as an eccentric black-hole binary merger: properties and astrophysical implications

Detecting orbital eccentricity in a stellar-mass black-hole merger would point to a non-isolated formation channel. Eccentric binaries can form in dense stellar environments such as globular clusters or active galactic nuclei, or from triple stellar systems in the Galactic field. However, confidently measuring eccentricity is challenging -- short signals from high-mass eccentric mergers can mimic spin-induced precession, making the two effects hard to disentangle. This degeneracy weakens considerably for longer-duration signals. Here, GW200208_222617 provides a rare opportunity. Originating from a relatively low-mass binary with source-frame chirp mass $\sim20$ M$_\odot$, its gravitational-wave signal spanned $\sim14$ orbital cycles in band, with no indication of data quality issues. Previous analyses for quasi-circular binaries found no evidence for spin precession, and multiple subsequent studies found the data to favour an eccentric merger despite notable technical differences. All in all, we believe GW200208_222617 is the black-hole merger event from GWTC-3 with the least ambiguous detection of eccentricity. We present a critical discussion of properties and astrophysical interpretation of GW200208_222617 as an eccentric black-hole merger using models of field triples, globular clusters, and active galactic nuclei. We find that if GW200208_222617 was indeed eccentric, its origin is consistent with a field triple or globular cluster. Formation in the inner regions of an active galactic nucleus is disfavoured. The outer regions of such a disk remain a viable origin for GW200208_222617; we demonstrate how future detections of eccentric mergers formed in such environments could be powerful tools for constraining the disk geometry.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2025

Reconstructing the origin of black hole mergers using sparse astrophysical models

The astrophysical origin of binary black hole mergers discovered by LIGO and Virgo remains uncertain. Efforts to reconstruct the processes that lead to mergers typically rely on either astrophysical models with fixed parameters, or continuous analytical models that can be fit to observations. Given the complexity of astrophysical formation mechanisms, these methods typically cannot fully take into account model uncertainties, nor can they fully capture the underlying processes. Here, we present a merger population analysis that can take a discrete set of simulated model distributions as its input to interpret observations. The analysis can take into account multiple formation scenarios as fractional contributors to the total set of observations, and can naturally account for model uncertainties. We apply this technique to investigate the origin of black hole mergers observed by LIGO Virgo. Specifically, we consider a model of AGN assisted black hole merger distributions, exploring a range of AGN parameters along with several {SEVN} population synthesis models that vary in common envelope efficiency parameter ($α$) and metallicity ($Z$). We estimate the posterior distributions for AGN+SEVN models using $87$ BBH detections from the $O1--O3$ observation runs. The inferred total merger rate is $46.2 {Gpc}^{-3} {yr}^{-1}$, with the AGN sub-population contributing $21.2{Gpc}^{-3}{yr}^{-1}$ and the SEVN sub-population contributing $25.0 {Gpc}^{-3} {yr}^{-1}$.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2025

Indication for a compact object next to a LIGO-Virgo binary black hole merger

The astrophysical origin of binary black hole (BBH) mergers remains uncertain, although many events have been observed by the LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA network. Such mergers are potentially originated in the vicinity of massive black holes (MBHs). GW190814, due to its secondary mass and mass ratio being beyond the expectations of isolated stellar evolution theories, is a promising event that has occurred in an active galactic nucleus (AGN) disk. In this model, a compact object resides in the vicinity of a merging BBH. Here we report multiple pieces of evidence suggesting that GW190814 is a BBH merging near a compact object. The orbital motion of BBHs around a third body produces a line-of-sight acceleration (LSA) and induces a varying Doppler shift. Using a waveform template that considers LSA, we perform Bayesian inference on a few BBH events with a high signal-to-noise ratio in the gravitational-wave (GW) transient catalog. Compared to the model for isolated BBH mergers, we obtain significantly higher network signal-to-noise ratios for GW190814 with the inclusion of LSA, constraining the LSA to $a = 0.0015^{+0.0008}_{-0.0008} ~c~\mathrm{s}^{-1}$ at a $90 \%$ confidence level. Additionally, the Bayes factor for the LSA case over the isolated case is $58/1$, indicating that the GW data strongly prefer the LSA model. We conclude that this is the first indication showing merging BBHs are located near a third compact object.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2025

Time-dependent models of AGN disks with radiation from embedded stellar-mass black holes

The brightest steady sources of radiation in the universe, active galactic nuclei (AGN), are powered by gas accretion onto a central supermassive black hole (SMBH). The large sizes and accretion rates implicated in AGN accretion disks are expected to lead to gravitational instability and fragmentation, effectively cutting off mass inflow to the SMBH. Radiative feedback from disk-embedded stars has been invoked to yield marginally stable, steady-state solutions in the outer disks. Here, we examine the consequences of this star formation with a semi-analytical model in which stellar-mass black hole (sBH) remnants in the disk provide an additional source of stabilizing radiative feedback. Assuming star formation seeds the embedded sBH population, we model the time-evolving feedback from both stars and the growing population of accreting sBHs. We find that in the outer disk, the luminosity of the sBHs quickly dominates that of their parent stars. However, because sBHs consume less gas than stars to stabilize the disk, the presence of the sBHs enhances the mass flux to the inner disk. As a result, star formation persists over the lifetime of the AGN, damped in the outer disk, but amplified in a narrow ring in the inner disk. Heating from the embedded sBHs significantly modifies the disk's temperature profile and hardens its spectral energy distribution, and direct emission from the sBHs adds a new hard X-ray component.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2023

Shock cooling and breakout emission for optical flares associated with gravitational wave events

The astrophysical origin of stellar-mass black hole (BH) mergers discovered through gravitational waves (GWs) is widely debated. Mergers in the disks of active galactic nuclei (AGN) represent promising environments for at least a fraction of these events, with possible observational clues in the GW data. An additional clue to unveil AGN merger environments is provided by possible electromagnetic emission from post-merger accreting BHs. Associated with BH mergers in AGN disks, emission from shocks emerging around jets launched by accreting merger remnants is expected. In this paper we compute the properties of the emission produced during breakout and the subsequent adiabatic expansion phase of the shocks, and we then apply this model to optical flares suggested to be possibly associated with GW events. We find that the majority of the reported flares can be explained by the breakout and the shock cooling emission. If these events are real, then the merging locations of binaries are constrained depending on the emission processes. If the optical flares are produced by shock cooling emission, they would display moderate color evolution, possibly color variations among different events, a positive correlation between the delay time and the duration of flares, and accompanying breakout emission in X-ray bands before the optical flares. If the breakout emission dominates the observed lightcurve, it is expected that the color is distributed in a narrow range in the optical band, and the delay time from GW to electromagnetic emission is longer than $\sim 2$ days. Hence, further explorations of the distributions of delay times, color evolution of the flares, and associated X-ray emission will be useful to test the proposed emission model for the observed flares.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2023

Flares from stars crossing active galactic nuclei disks on low-inclination orbits

The origin of the recently discovered new class of transients, X-ray quasi-periodic eruptions (QPEs), remains a puzzle. Due to their periodicity and association with active galactic nuclei (AGN), it is natural to relate these eruptions to stars or compact objects in tight orbits around supermassive black holes (SMBHs). In this paper, we predict the properties of emission from bow shocks produced by stars crossing AGN disks, and compare them to the observed properties of QPEs. We find that when a star's orbit is retrograde and has a low inclination ($\lesssim 40^\circ$) with respect to the AGN disk and the star is massive ($\gtrsim 10$ $M_{\odot}$), the breakout emission from the bow shock can explain the observed duration ($\sim$ hours) and X-ray luminosity ($\sim$few$\times10^{42}~{\rm erg~s^{-1}}$) of QPEs. This model can further explain various observed features of QPEs, such as their complex luminosity evolution, the gradual decline of luminosity of the flares over several years, the evolution of the hardness ratio, the modulation of the luminosity during quiescent phases, and the preference of the central SMBHs to have low masses.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2023

High-energy electromagnetic, neutrino, and cosmic-ray emission by stellar-mass black holes in disks of active galactic nuclei

Some Seyfert galaxies are detected in high-energy gamma rays, but the mechanism and site of gamma-ray emission are unknown. Also, the origins of the cosmic high-energy neutrino and MeV gamma-ray backgrounds have been veiled in mystery since their discoveries. We propose emission from stellar-mass BHs (sBHs) embedded in disks of active galactic nuclei (AGN) as their possible sources. These sBHs are predicted to launch jets due to the Blandford-Znajek mechanism, which can produce intense electromagnetic, neutrino, and cosmic-ray emissions. We investigate whether these emissions can be the sources of cosmic high-energy particles. We find that emission from internal shocks in the jets can explain gamma rays from nearby radio-quiet Seyfert galaxies including NGC1068, if the Lorentz factor of the jets ($Γ_{\rm j}$) is high. On the other hand, for moderate $Γ_{\rm j}$, the emission can significantly contribute to the background gamma-ray and neutrino intensities in the $\sim {\rm MeV}$ and $\lesssim {\rm PeV}$ bands, respectively. Furthermore, for moderate $Γ_{\rm j}$ with efficient amplification of the magnetic field and cosmic-ray acceleration, the neutrino emission from NGC1068 and the ultrahigh-energy cosmic rays can be explained. These results suggest that the neutrino flux from NGC1068 as well as the background intensities of ${\rm MeV}$ gamma rays, neutrinos, and the ultrahigh-energy cosmic rays can be explained by a unified model. Future MeV gamma-ray satellites will test our scenario for neutrino emission.

astro-ph.HE↗
arXiv2023

Observable signature of merging stellar-mass black holes in active galactic nuclei

The origin of stellar-mass black hole mergers discovered through gravitational waves is being widely debated. Mergers in the disks of active galactic nuclei (AGN) represent a promising source of origin, with possible observational clues in the gravitational wave data. Beyond gravitational waves, a unique signature of AGN-assisted mergers is electromagnetic emission from the accreting black holes. Here we show that jets launched by accreting black holes merging in an AGN disk can be detected as peculiar transients by infrared, optical, and X-ray observatories We further show that this emission mechanism can explain the possible associations between gravitational wave events and the optical transient ZTF19abanrhr and the proposed gamma-ray counterparts GW150914-GBM and LVT151012-GBM. We demonstrate how these associations, if genuine, can be used to reconstruct the properties of these events' environments. Searching for infrared and X-ray counterparts to similar electromagnetic transients in the future, once host galaxies are localized by optical observations, could provide a smoking gun signature of the mergers' AGN origin.

astro-ph.HE↗