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Hisashi Hayakawa

Publications and source records attributed to Hisashi Hayakawa.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

Daniel Mögling's sunspot observations in 1626 - 1629: A manuscript reference for the solar activity before the Maunder Minimum

The sunspot groups have been observed since 1610 and their numbers have been used for evaluating the amplitude of solar activity. Daniel Mögling recorded his sunspot observations for more than 100 days in 1626 - 1629 and formed a significant dataset of sunspot records before the Maunder Minimum. Here, we have analysed his original manuscripts in the Universitäts- und Landesbibliothek Darmstadt (ULBD) to review Mögling's personal profile and observational instruments and derive number and positions of the sunspot groups. In his manuscript, we have identified 134 days with an exact sunspot group number and 3 days of additional descriptions. Our analyses have completely revised their observational dates and group number, added 19 days of hitherto overlooked observations, and removed 8 days of misinterpreted observations. We have also revisited sunspot observations of Schickard and Hortensius and revised their data. These results have been compared with the contemporary observations. Moreover, we have derived the sunspot positions from his sunspot drawings and located them at 2°-23° in the heliographic latitude in both solar hemispheres. Contextualised with contemporary observations, these results indicate their temporal migration to lower heliographic latitudes and emphasise its location in the declining phase of Solar Cycle -12 in the 1620s. His observations were probably conducted using a pinhole and camera obscura, which made Mögling likely underestimate the sunspot group number by >~ 33% - 52 %. This underestimation should be noted upon their comparison with the modern datasets.

astro-ph.SR↗

The Dalton Minimum and John Dalton's Auroral Observations

In addition to the regular Schwabe cycles of approximately 11 y, "prolonged solar activity minima" have been identified through the direct observation of sunspots and aurorae, as well as proxy data of cosmogenic isotopes. Some of these minima have been regarded as grand solar minima, which are arguably associated with the special state of the solar dynamo and have attracted significant scientific interest. In this paper, we review how these prolonged solar activity minima have been identified. In particular, we focus on the Dalton Minimum, which is named after John Dalton. We review Dalton's scientific achievements, particularly in geophysics. Special emphasis is placed on his lifelong observations of auroral displays over approximately five decades in Great Britain. Dalton's observations for the auroral frequency allowed him to notice the scarcity of auroral displays in the early 19th century. We analyze temporal variations in the annual frequency of such displays from a modern perspective. The contemporary geomagnetic positions of Dalton's observational site make his dataset extremely valuable because his site is located in the sub-auroral zone and is relatively sensitive to minor enhancements in solar eruptions and solar wind streams. His data indicate clear solar cycles in the early 19th century and their significant depression from 1798 to 1824. Additionally, his data reveal a significant spike in auroral frequency in 1797, which chronologically coincides with the "lost cycle" that is believed to have occurred at the end of Solar Cycle 4. Therefore, John Dalton's achievements can still benefit modern science and help us improve our understanding of the Dalton Minimum.

astro-ph.SR↗

Cometary records revise Eastern Mediterranean chronology around 1240 CE

Eirene Laskarina, empress of John III Batatzes of the exiled Byzantine Empire of Nicaea (1204--1261 CE), was an important Eastern Mediterranean figure in the first half of the thirteenth century. We reassess the date of Eirene's death, which has been variously dated between late 1239 and 1241, with the understanding that narrowing the range in which this event occurred contributes much to understanding the political situation in the area around 1240. George Akropolites, a famous official of the Empire, gives an account that connects Eirene's death to a comet that appeared "six months earlier", thus pointing to two comet candidates that were visible from the Eastern Mediterranean between 1239 and 1241, one recorded on "3 June 1239" and the other on "31 January 1240". Recent historians prefer the former, based on historical circumstances and without a critical assessment of the comet records. We revisit the historical records and reveal that the "3 June 1239" candidate was not a comet. On the other hand, the other candidate, sighted on "31 January 1240", was a comet, as supported by multiple historical records in multiple regions, and is also a good fit with Akropolites's narrative. Therefore, we conclude that Eirene died six months after the comet that was seen on 31 January 1240, which places her death in the summer of 1240. Given that the date of her death is crucial for determining some other contemporary events across the Eastern Mediterranean, our results offer a solid basis for further research on the thirteenth-century Eastern Mediterranean.

physics.hist-ph↗

The intensity and evolution of the extreme storms in January 1938

Major solar eruptions occasionally direct interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) to Earth and cause significant geomagnetic storms and low-latitude aurorae. While single extreme storms are of significant threats to the modern civilization, storms occasionally appear in sequence and, acting synergistically, cause 'perfect storms' at Earth. The stormy interval in January 1938 was one of such cases. Here, we analyze the contemporary records to reveal its time series on their source active regions, solar eruptions, ICMEs, geomagnetic storms, low-latitude aurorae, and cosmic-ray (CR) variations. Geomagnetic records show that three storms occurred successively on 17/18 January (Dcx ~ -171 nT) on 21/22 January (Dcx ~ -328 nT) and on 25/26 January (Dcx ~ -336 nT). The amplitudes of the cosmic-ray variations and sudden storm commencements show the impact of the first ICME as the largest (~ 6% decrease in CR and 72 nT in SSC) and the ICME associated with the storms that followed as more moderate (~ 3% decrease in CR and 63 nT in SSC; ~ 2% decrease in CR and 63 nT in SSC). Interestingly, a significant solar proton event occurred on 16/17 January and the Cheltenham ionization chamber showed a possible ground level enhancement. During the first storm, aurorae were less visible at mid-latitudes, whereas during the second and third storms, the equatorward boundaries of the auroral oval were extended down to 40.3° and 40.0° in invariant latitude. This contrast shows that the initial ICME was probably faster, with a higher total magnitude but a smaller southward component.

astro-ph.SR↗

The Extreme Space Weather Event in February/March 1941

Given the infrequency of extreme geomagnetic storms, it is significant to note the concentration of three extreme geomagnetic storms in 1941, whose intensities ranked fourth, twelfth, and fifth within the aa index between 1868-2010. Among them, the geomagnetic storm on 1 March 1941 was so intense that three of the four Dst station magnetograms went off scale. Herein, we reconstruct its time series and measure the storm intensity with an alternative Dst estimate (Dst*). The source solar eruption at 09:29 - 09:38 GMT on 28 February was located at RGO AR 13814 and its significant intensity is confirmed by large magnetic crochets of 35 nT measured at Abinger. This solar eruption most likely released a fast interplanetary coronal mass ejection with estimated speed 2260 km/s. After its impact at 03:57 - 03:59 GMT on 1 March, an extreme magnetic storm was recorded worldwide. Comparative analyses on the contemporary magnetograms show the storm peak intensity of minimum Dst* < -464 nT at 16 GMT, comparable to the most and the second most extreme magnetic storms within the standard Dst index since 1957. This storm triggered significant low-latitude aurorae in the East Asian sector and their equatorward boundary has been reconstructed as 38.5° in invariant latitude. This result agrees with British magnetograms which indicate auroral oval moving above Abinger at 53.0° in magnetic latitude. The storm amplitude was even more enhanced in equatorial stations and consequently casts caveats on their usage for measurements of the storm intensity in Dst estimates.

physics.space-ph↗

Reanalyses of the Sunspot Observations of Fogelius and Siverus: Two "Long-Term" Observers during the Maunder Minimum

The solar activity during the Maunder Minimum (MM; 1645 -- 1715) has been considered significantly different from the one captured in modern observations, in terms of sunspot group number and sunspot positions, whereas its actual amplitudes and distributions is still under active discussions. In its core period (1650/1660 -- 1700), Martin Fogelius and Henrich Siverus have formed significant long-term series in the existing databases with numerous spotless days, as the 13th and 7th most active observers before the end of the MM. In this study, we have analysed their original archival records, revised their data, have removed significant contaminations of the apparent "spotless days" in the existing databases, and cast caveats on the potential underestimation of the solar-cycle amplitude in the core MM. Still, they reported at best one sunspot group throughout their observational period and confirm the significant suppressed the solar cycles during the MM, which is also supported from the contemporary observations of Hook and Willoughby. Based on the revised data, we have also derived positions of notable sunspot groups, which Siverus recorded in 1671 (~ N7.5° +/- 2.5°), in comparison with those of Cassini's drawings (~ N10° +/- 1°). Their coincidence in position and chronology in corrected dates indicates these sunspot groups were probably the same recurrent active region (AR) and its significantly long lifespan (>~ 35 days) even during the MM.

astro-ph.SR↗

Candidate Auroral Observations during the Major Solar-Terrestrial Storm in May 1680: Implication for Space Weather Events during the Maunder Minimum

The Maunder Minimum (1645-1715) is currently considered the only grand minimum within telescopic sunspot observations since 1610. During this epoch, the Sun was extremely quiet and unusually free from sunspots. However, despite reduced frequency, candidate aurorae were reported in the mid-European sector during this period and have been associated with occurrences of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs), whereas some of them have been identified as misinterpretations. Here, we have analysed reports of candidate aurorae on 1 June 1680 with simultaneous observations in mid-Europe, and compared their descriptions with visual accounts of early modern aurorae. Most contemporary sunspot drawings from 22, 24, and 27 May 1680 have shown that this apparent sunspot may have been a source of ICMEs, which caused the reported candidate aurorae. On the other hand, its intensity estimate shows that the magnetic storm during this candidate aurora was probably within the capability of the storms derived from the corotating interaction region (CIR). Therefore, we accommodate both ICMEs and CIRs as their possible origin. This interpretation is probably applicable to the candidate aurorae in the often-cited Hungarian catalogue, on the basis of the reconstructed margin of their equatorward auroral boundary. Moreover, this catalogue itself has clarified that the considerable candidates during the MM were probably misinterpretations. Therefore, frequency of the auroral visibility in Hungary was probably lower than previously considered and agree more with the generally slow solar wind in the existing reconstructions, whereas sporadic occurrences of sunspots and coronal holes still caused occasional geomagnetic storms.

astro-ph.SR↗

South American auroral reports during the Carrington storm

The importance of the investigation of magnetic superstorms is not limited to academic interest, because these superstorms can cause catastrophic impact on the modern civilisation due to our increasing dependency on technological infrastructure. In this context, the Carrington storm in September 1859 is considered as a benchmark of observational history owing to its magnetic disturbance and equatorial extent of the auroral oval. So far, several recent auroral reports at that time have been published but those reports are mainly derived from the Northern Hemisphere. In this study, we analyse datable auroral reports from South America and its vicinity, assess the auroral extent using philological and astrometric approaches, identify the auroral visibility at - 17.3° magnetic latitude and further poleward and reconstruct the equatorial boundary of the auroral oval to be 25.1° +/- 0.5° in invariant latitude. Interestingly, brighter and more colourful auroral displays were reported in the South American sector than in the Northern Hemisphere. This north-south asymmetry is presumably associated with variations of their magnetic longitude and the weaker magnetic field over South America compared to the magnetic conjugate point and the increased amount of magnetospheric electron precipitation into the upper atmosphere. These results attest that the magnitude of the Carrington storm indicates that its extent falls within the range of other superstorms, such as those that occurred in May 1921 and February 1872, in terms of the equatorial boundary of the auroral oval.

astro-ph.SR↗

Estimating Satellite Orbital Drag During Historical Magnetic Superstorms

Understanding extreme space weather events is of paramount importance in efforts to protect technological systems in space and on the ground. Particularly in the thermosphere, the subsequent extreme magnetic storms can pose serious threats to low-Earth orbit (LEO) spacecraft by intensifying errors in orbit predictions. Extreme magnetic storms (minimum Dst $\leq$ --250 nT) are extremely rare: only 7 events occurred during the era of spacecraft with high-level accelerometers such as CHAMP (CHAllenge Mini-satellite Payload) and GRACE (Gravity Recovery And Climate experiment), and none with minimum Dst $\leq$ --500 nT, here termed magnetic superstorms. Therefore, current knowledge of thermospheric mass density response to superstorms is very limited. Thus, in order to advance this knowledge, four known magnetic superstorms in history, i.e., events occurring before CHAMP's and GRACE's commission times, with complete datasets, are used to empirically estimate density enhancements and subsequent orbital drag. The November 2003 magnetic storm (minimum Dst = --422 nT), the most extreme event observed by both satellites, is used as the benchmark event. Results show that, as expected, orbital degradation is more severe for the most intense storms. Additionally, results clearly point out that the time duration of the storm is strongly associated with storm-time orbital drag effects, being as important as or even more important than storm intensity itself. The most extreme storm-time decays during CHAMP/GRACE-like sample satellite orbits estimated for the March 1989 magnetic superstorm show that long-lasting superstorms can have highly detrimental consequences for the orbital dynamics of satellites in LEO.

physics.space-ph↗

The Solar Corona during the Total Eclipse on 16 June 1806: Graphical Evidence of the Coronal Structure during the Dalton Minimum

Visible coronal structure, in particular the spatial evolution of coronal streamers, provides indirect information about solar magnetic activity and the underlying solar dynamo. Their apparent absence of structure observed during the total eclipses of throughout the Maunder Minimum has been interpreted as evidence of a significant change in the solar magnetic field from that during modern cycles. Eclipse observations available from the more recent Dalton Minimum may be able to provide further information, sunspot activity being between the levels seen during recent cycles and in the Maunder Minimum. Here, we show and examine two graphical records of the total solar eclipse on 1806 June 16, during the Dalton Minimum. These records show significant rays and streamers around an inner ring. The ring is estimated to be ~ 0.44 R_S in width and the streamers in excess of 11.88 R_S in length. In combination with records of spicules or prominences, these eclipse records visually contrast the Dalton Minimum with the Maunder Minimum in terms of their coronal structure and support the existing discussions based on the sunspot observations. These eclipse records are broadly consistent with the solar cycle phase in the modelled open solar flux and the reconstructed slow solar wind at most latitudes.

astro-ph.SR↗

A possible case of sporadic aurora observed at Rio de Janeiro

Being footprints of major magnetic storms and hence major solar eruptions, mid- to low-latitude aurorae have been one of the pathways to understand solar-terrestrial environments. However, it has been reported that aurorae are also occasionally observed at low latitudes under low or even quiet magnetic conditions. Such phenomena are known as "sporadic aurorae". We report on a historical event observed by a scientist of the Brazilian Empire in Rio de Janeiro on 15 February 1875. We analyze this event on the basis of its spectroscopic observations, along with its visual structure and coloration, to suggest this event was a possible case of sporadic aurorae. Given the absence of worldwide aurora observations on that day as a consequence of low magnetic activity recorded on the days preceding the observation, in addition to a detailed description, the event observed can most likely be classified as a sporadic aurora. We discuss the geographic and magnetic conditions of that event. Thus, we add a possible case of sporadic aurora in the South American sector.

physics.space-ph↗

Extreme Space Weather Events Recorded in History

This section shows an overview of a recent development of the studies on great space weather events in history. Its discussion starts from the Carrington event and compare its intensity with the extreme storms within the coverage of the regular magnetic measurements. Extending its analyses back beyond their onset, this section shows several case studies of extreme storms with sunspot records in the telescopic observations and candidate auroral records in historical records. Before the onset of telescopic observations, this section shows the chronological coverages of the records of unaided-eye sunspot and candidate aurorae and several case studies on their basis.

physics.hist-ph↗

Provenance of the Cross Sign of 806 in the Anglo-Saxon Chronicle: A possible Lunar Halo over Continental Europe?

While graphical records of astronomical/meteorological events before telescopic observations are of particular interest, they have frequently undergone multiple copying and may have been modified from the original. Here, we analyze a graphical record of the cross-sign of 806 CE in the Anglo-Saxon Chronicle, which has been considered one of the earliest datable halo drawings in British records, whereas another cross-sign in 776 CE has been associated with the aurora. However, philological studies have revealed the later 806 event is derived from Continental annals. Here, records and drawings for the 806 event have been philologically traced back to mid-9th Century Continental manuscripts and the probable observational site identified as the area of Sens in northern France. The possible lunar halos at that time have been comprehensively examined by numerical ray tracing. Combined with calculations of twilight sky brightness, they identify a visibility window supporting monastic observation. Cruciform halos are shown to be fainter and rarer than brighter and more commonplace lunar halos. Physically credible cloud ice crystal variations can reproduce all the manuscript renditions. The manuscript records prove less than desirable detail but what is presented is fully consistent with a lunar halo interpretation. Finally, the possible societal impacts of such celestial events have been mentioned in the context of contemporary coins in Anglo-Saxon England and the Carolingian Empire. These analyses show that we need to trace their provenance back as far as possible, to best reconstruct the original event, even if graphical records are available for given astronomical/meteorological events.

physics.hist-ph↗

The Extreme Space Weather Event in 1903 October/November: An Outburst from the Quiet Sun

While the Sun is generally more eruptive during its maximum and declining phases, observational evidence shows certain cases of powerful solar eruptions during the quiet phase of the solar activity. Occurring in the weak Solar Cycle 14 just after its minimum, the extreme space weather event in 1903 October -- November was one of these cases. Here, we reconstruct the time series of geomagnetic activity based on contemporary observational records. With the mid-latitude magnetograms, the 1903 magnetic storm is thought to be caused by a fast coronal mass ejection (~1500 km/s) and is regarded as an intense event with an estimated minimum Dst' of ~-513 nT The reconstructed time series has been compared with the equatorward extension of auroral oval (~44.1° in invariant latitude) and the time series of telegraphic disturbances. This case study shows that potential threats posed by extreme space weather events exist even during weak solar cycles or near their minima.

astro-ph.SR↗

Thaddäus Derfflinger's sunspot observations during 1802-1824: A primary reference to understand the Dalton Minimum

As we are heading towards the next solar cycle, presumably with a relatively small amplitude, it is of significant interest to reconstruct and describe the past grand minima on the basis of actual observations of the time. The Dalton Minimum is often considered one of the grand minima captured in the coverage of telescopic observations. Nevertheless, the reconstructions of the sunspot group number vary significantly, and the existing butterfly diagrams have a large data gap during the period. This is partially because most long-term observations have remained unexplored in historical archives. Therefore, to improve our understanding on the Dalton Minimum, we have located two series of Thaddäus Derfflinger's observational records (a summary manuscript and logbooks) as well as his Brander's 5.5-feet azimuthal-quadrant preserved in the Kremsmünster Observatory. We have revised the existing Derfflinger's sunspot group number with Waldmeier classification and eliminated all the existing 'spotless days' to remove contaminations from solar meridian observations. We have reconstructed the butterfly diagram on the basis of his observations and illustrated sunspot distributions in both solar hemispheres. Our article aims to revise the trend of Derfflinger's sunspot group number and to bridge a data gap of the existing butterfly diagrams around the Dalton Minimum. Our results confirm that the Dalton Minimum is significantly different from the Maunder Minimum, both in terms of cycle amplitudes and sunspot distributions. Therefore, the Dalton Minimum is more likely a secular minimum in the long-term solar activity, while further investigations for the observations at that time are required.

astro-ph.SR↗

Sunspot Observations by Hisako Koyama: 1945-1996

The sunspot record is the only observational tracer of solar activity that provides a fundamental, multi-century reference. Its homogeneity has been largely maintained with a succession of long-duration visual observers. In this paper, we examine observations of one of the primary reference sunspot observers, Hisako Koyama. By consulting original archives of the National Museum of Nature and Science of Japan (hereafter, NMNS), we retrace the main steps of her solar-observing career, from 1945 to 1996. We also present the reconstruction of a full digital database of her sunspot observations at the NMNS, with her original drawings and logbooks. Here, we extend the availability of her observational data from 1947-1984 to 1945-1996. Comparisons with the international sunspot number (version 2) and with the group sunspot number series show a good global stability of Koyama's observations, with only temporary fluctuations over the main interval 1947-1982. Identifying drawings made by alternate observers throughout the series, we find that a single downward baseline shift in the record coincides with the partial contribution of replacement observers mostly after 1983. We determine the correction factor to bring the second part (1983-1996) to the same scale with Koyama's main interval (1947-1982). We find a downward jump by 9% after 1983, which then remains stable until 1996. Overall, the high quality of Koyama's observations with her life-long dedication leaves a lasting legacy of this exceptional personal achievement. With this comprehensive recovery, we now make the totality of this legacy directly accessible and exploitable for future research.

astro-ph.SR↗

The Earliest Candidates of Auroral Observations in Assyrian Astrological Reports: Insights on Solar Activity around 660 BCE

Auroral records found in historical archives and cosmogenic isotopes found in natural archives have served as sound proxies of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs), respectively, for dates prior to the onset of telescopic sunspot observations in 1610. These space weather events constitute a significant threat to a modern civilization, because of its increasing dependency on an electronic infrastructure. Recent studies have identified multiple extreme space weather events derived from solar energetic particles (SEPs) in natural archives, such as the event in 660 BCE. While the level of solar activity around 660 BCE is of great interest, this had not been within the coverage of the hitherto-known datable auroral records in historical documents that extend back to the 6th century BCE. Therefore, we have examined Assyrian astrological reports in the 8th and 7th centuries BCE, identified three observational reports of candidate aurorae, and dated these reports to approximately 680 BCE -- 650 BCE. The Assyrian cuneiform tablets let us extend the history of auroral records and solar activity by a century. These cuneiform reports are considered to be the earliest datable records of candidate aurorae and they support the concept of enhanced solar activity suggested by the cosmogenic isotopes from natural archives.

astro-ph.SR↗

Temporal and Spatial Evolutions of a Large Sunspot Group and Great Auroral Storms around the Carrington Event in 1859

The Carrington event is considered to be one of the most extreme space weather events in observational history within a series of magnetic storms caused by extreme interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) from a large and complex active region (AR) emerged on the solar disk. In this article, we study the temporal and spatial evolutions of the source sunspot active region and visual aurorae, and compare this storm with other extreme space weather events on the basis of their spatial evolution. Sunspot drawings by Schwabe, Secchi, and Carrington describe the position and morphology of the source AR at that time. Visual auroral reports from the Russian Empire, Iberia, Ireland, Oceania, and Japan fill the spatial gap of auroral visibility and revise the time series of auroral visibility in mid to low magnetic latitudes (MLATs). The reconstructed time series is compared with magnetic measurements and shows the correspondence between low to mid latitude aurorae and the phase of magnetic storms. The spatial evolution of the auroral oval is compared with those of other extreme space weather events in 1872, 1909, 1921, and 1989 as well as their storm intensity, and contextualizes the Carrington event, as one of the most extreme space weather events, but likely not unique.

astro-ph.SR↗