arXiv subjects

Hokky Situngkir

Publications and source records attributed to Hokky Situngkir.

30 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2004

Democracy: Order out of Chaos

We construct a majority cellular automata based model to explain the power-law signatures in Indonesian general election results. The understanding of second-order phase transitions between two different conditions inspires the model. The democracy is assumed as critical point between the two extreme socio-political situations of totalitarian and anarchistic social system - where democracy can fall into the twos. The model is in multi-party candidates system run for equilibrium or equilibria, and used to fit and analyze the three of democratic national elections in Indonesia, 1955, 1999, and 2004.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2004

Social Balance Theory

We construct a model based on social balance theory proposed by Fritz Heider to analyze the interpersonal network among social agents. The model of social balance theory provides us an interesting tool to see how a social group evolves to the possible balance state. We introduce the balance index that can be used to measure social balance in macro structure level (global balance index) or in micro structure (local balance index) to see how the local balance index influences the global balance structure. Several experiments are done and we discover how the social group can form separation of subgroups in a group or strengthening a social group while emphasizing the structure theorem and social mitosis previously introduced.

nlin.PS↗

arXiv2004

Hierarchical Taxonomy in Multi-Party System

We propose the use of hierarchical taxonomy to analyze the legislative election results as a model of multi-party system to show the robustness in political system. As an example we use the result of Indonesian legislative election 2004 is analyzed with certain comparative with the previous one (1999). We construct the graph theoretical analysis by finding the Euclidean distances among political parties. The distances are then treated in ultrametric spaces by using the minimum spanning tree algorithm. By having the Indonesian hierarchical taxonomy model of political parties we show some patterns emerging the pattern agrees with the classical anthropological analysis of socio-political system in Indonesia. This fact accentuates a character of robustness in Indonesian political society as a self-organized system evolves to critical state. Some small perturbations i.e.: different voting process resulting the same pattern and occasions statistically, emerges from the social structure based upon political streams: Islamic, secular, traditional, and some complements of all.

nlin.PS↗

arXiv2004

Power Law Signature in Indonesian Legislative Election 1999-2004

We analyzed the distribution of the result of Indonesian 1999 and 2004 legislative election in order to have the statistical properties or any stylized facts. The paper shows that the analysis results the power-law signature persistently in the election of the House of Representative in 1999 and 2004 and more clearly in the result of Regional Representative Council that held for the first time in 2004. It shows that the socio-political system is a complex system constituted by interacting citizens and accentuates universality that the social evolution dynamically turns to be self-organized in critical state.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2004

Metabolism of Social System

Random Boolean Network has been used to find out regulation patterns of genes in organism. his approach is very interesting to use in a game such as N Person PD. Here we assume that action is influenced by input in the form of choices of cooperate or defect he accepted from other agent or group of agents in the system. Number of cooperators, pay off value received by each agent, and average value of the group pay off, are observed in every state, from initial state chosen until it reaches its state cycle attractor. In simulation performed here, we gain information that a system with large number agents based on action on input K equals to two, will reach equilibrium and stable condition over strategies taken out by its agents faster than higher input, that is K equals to three. Equilibrium reached in longer interval, yet it is stable over strategies carried out by agents.

cond-mat.dis-nn↗

arXiv2004

On Selfish Memes

We present the formal definition of meme in the sense of the equivalence between memetics and the theory of cultural evolution. From the formal definition we find that culture can be seen analytically and persuade that memetic gives important role in the exploration of sociological theory, especially in the cultural studies. We show that we are not allowed to assume meme as smallest information unit in cultural evolution in general, but it is the smallest information we use on explaining cultural evolution. We construct a computational model and do simulation in advance presenting the selfish meme power-law distributed. The simulation result shows that the contagion of meme as well as cultural evolution is a complex adaptive system. Memetics is the system and art of importing genetics to social sciences.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2004

Powers of the Governmental State as Feedback Control Dynamic System

Democracy in a state is possibly a gain to have the government that represents the whole citizens. But the main element of the democratic system is the ability of the governmental functions in the state to act properly in order to gain the citizen wants. The simulation presented in this paper shows how the rule-making, rule-application, and rule-adjudication functions work such ways and how they work to have the public wants. The model is the second order feedback control dynamic system where the rule-making and rule-application function placed in the forward path and the rule-adjudication placed at backward path of the system. The rule-making function assumed to be the function that accentuate the result of public inquiries and presented as a gain function. The rule-application and the rule-adjudication are modeled as an exponential function which response is lowering the entropy of the disordered state conditions by the policies that output. The possible noise that came from the inability of the government system to work properly is also presented here. The government system that succeed the gain the same as the public wants is the optimum government that wanted to be achieved.

nlin.PS↗

arXiv2004

Neural Network Revisited: Perception on Modified Poincare Map of Financial Time Series Data

Artificial Neural Network Model for prediction of time-series data is revisited on analysis of the Indonesian stock-exchange data. We introduce the use of Multi-Layer Perceptron to percept the modified Poincare-map of the given financial time-series data. The modified Poincare-map is believed to become the pattern of the data that transforms the data in time-t versus the data in time-t+1 graphically. We built the Multi-Layer Perceptron to percept and demonstrate predicting the data on specific stock-exchange in Indonesia.

cond-mat.dis-nn↗

arXiv2004

Agent-based Model Construction In Financial Economic System

The paper gives picture of enrichment to economic and financial system analysis using agent-based models as a form of advanced study for financial economic data post-statistical-data analysis and micro-simulation analysis. Theoretical exploration is carried out by using comparisons of some usual financial economy system models frequently and popularly used in econophysics and computational finance. Primitive model, which consists of agent microsimulation with fundamentalist strategy, chartist, and noise, was established with an expectation of adjusting micro-simulation analysis upon stock market in Indonesia. The result of simulation showing how financial economy data resulted analysis using statistical tools such as data distribution and central limit theorem, and several other macro-financial analysis tools previously shown (Situngkir & Surya, 2003b). This paper is ended with several further possible advancements from the model built.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2004

The Structural Dynamics of Corruption: Artificial Society Approach

Corruption has been an important issue as it becomes obstacle to achieve the better and more efficient economic governmental system. The paper defines corruption in two ways, as state capture and administrative corruption to grasp the quintessence of the corruption cases modeled in dynamical computational social system. The result of experiments through simulation is provided in order to construct an understanding of structural properties of corruption, giving way to consider corruption not as an isolated phenomenon, but conclusively, as an interdisciplinary problem and should be handled in holistic perspectives.

nlin.AO↗

arXiv2004

Stylized Statistical Facts of Indonesian Financial Data: Empirical Study of Several Stock Indexes in Indonesia

This paper is trying to unveil general statistical characteristic of financial; time series data that is subjected to several financial time series data present in Indonesia, e.g. individual index such as stock price of PT. TELKOM, stock price of PT HM SAMPOERNA, and compiled stock price index (Jakarta Stock Exchange Index). Characteristics that we try to analyze are volatility clustering, truncated Levy distribution, and multifractality feature. This analysis is directed for further works of research in making Indonesian artificial stock exchange that gives representation of micro structure of stock exchange in Indonesia. This paper is a resume of statistic behavior analyzed in top-down to become the ground in starting a more bottom-up analysis.

cond-mat.other↗

arXiv2004

Epidemiology Through Cellular Automata: Case of Study Avian Influenza in Indonesia

This paper performs the utilization of cellular automata computational analysis as the dynamic model of spatial epidemiology. Here, explored elementary aspects of cellular automata and its application in analyzing contagious disease, in this case avian influenza disease in Indonesia. Computational model is built and map-based simulation is performed using several simplified data of such transportation through sea in Indonesia, and its accordance with poultries in Indonesia, with initial condition of notified avian influenza infected area in Indonesia. The initial places are Pekalongan, West Java, East Java, and several regions in Sumatera. The result of simulation is showing the spreading-rate of influenza and in simple way and describing possible preventive action through isolation of infected areas as a major step of preventing pandemic.

nlin.CG↗