arXiv subjects

Holger Dette

Publications and source records attributed to Holger Dette.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Testing equivalence of multinomial distributions -- a constrained bootstrap approach

In this paper we develop a novel bootstrap test for the comparison of two multinomial distributions. The two distributions are called {\it equivalent} or {\it similar} if a norm of the difference between the class probabilities is smaller than a given threshold. In contrast to most of the literature our approach does not require differentiability of the norm and is in particular applicable for the maximum- and $L^1$-norm.

math.ST↗

arXiv2023

Sampling Distributions of Optimal Portfolio Weights and Characteristics in Low and Large Dimensions

Optimal portfolio selection problems are determined by the (unknown) parameters of the data generating process. If an investor wants to realise the position suggested by the optimal portfolios, he/she needs to estimate the unknown parameters and to account for the parameter uncertainty in the decision process. Most often, the parameters of interest are the population mean vector and the population covariance matrix of the asset return distribution. In this paper, we characterise the exact sampling distribution of the estimated optimal portfolio weights and their characteristics. This is done by deriving their sampling distribution by its stochastic representation. This approach possesses several advantages, {e.g.} (i) it determines the sampling distribution of the estimated optimal portfolio weights by expressions, which could be used to draw samples from this distribution efficiently; (ii) the application of the derived stochastic representation provides an easy way to obtain the asymptotic approximation of the sampling distribution. The later property is used to show that the high-dimensional asymptotic distribution of optimal portfolio weights is a multivariate normal and to determine its parameters. Moreover, a consistent estimator of optimal portfolio weights and their characteristics is derived under the high-dimensional settings. Via an extensive simulation study, we investigate the finite-sample performance of the derived asymptotic approximation and study its robustness to the violation of the model assumptions used in the derivation of the theoretical results.

q-fin.PM↗

arXiv2023

A reinforced learning approach to optimal design under model uncertainty

Optimal designs are usually model-dependent and likely to be sub-optimal if the postulated model is not correctly specified. In practice, it is common that a researcher has a list of candidate models at hand and a design has to be found that is efficient for selecting the true model among the competing candidates and is also efficient (optimal, if possible) for estimating the parameters of the true model. In this article, we use a reinforced learning approach to address this problem. We develop a sequential algorithm, which generates a sequence of designs which have asymptotically, as the number of stages increases, the same efficiency for estimating the parameters in the true model as an optimal design if the true model would have correctly been specified in advance. A lower bound is established to quantify the relative efficiency between such a design and an optimal design for the true model in finite stages. Moreover, the resulting designs are also efficient for discriminating between the true model and other rival models from the candidate list. Some connections with other state-of-the-art algorithms for model discrimination and parameter estimation are discussed and the methodology is illustrated by a small simulation study.

math.ST↗

arXiv2023

Rearranged dependence measures

Most of the popular dependence measures for two random variables $X$ and $Y$ (such as Pearson's and Spearman's correlation, Kendall's $τ$ and Gini's $γ$) vanish whenever $X$ and $Y$ are independent. However, neither does a vanishing dependence measure necessarily imply independence, nor does a measure equal to 1 imply that one variable is a measurable function of the other. Yet, both properties are natural properties for a convincing dependence measure. In this paper, we present a general approach to transforming a given dependence measure into a new one which exactly characterizes independence as well as functional dependence. Our approach uses the concept of monotone rearrangements as introduced by Hardy and Littlewood and is applicable to a broad class of measures. In particular, we are able to define a rearranged Spearman's $ρ$ and a rearranged Kendall's $τ$ which do attain the value $0$ if and only if both variables are independent, and the value $1$ if and only if one variable is a measurable function of the other. We also present simple estimators for the rearranged dependence measures, prove their consistency and illustrate their finite sample properties by means of a simulation study and a data example.

math.ST↗

arXiv2023

Comparing regression curves -- an $L^1$-point of view

In this paper we compare two regression curves by measuring their difference by the area between the two curves, represented by their $L^1$-distance. We develop asymptotic confidence intervals for this measure and statistical tests to investigate the similarity/equivalence of the two curves. Bootstrap methodology specifically designed for equivalence testing is developed to obtain procedures with good finite sample properties and its consistency is rigorously proved. The finite sample properties are investigated by means of a small simulation study.

math.ST↗

arXiv2023

Testing separability for continuous functional data

Analyzing the covariance structure of data is a fundamental task of statistics. While this task is simple for low-dimensional observations, it becomes challenging for more intricate objects, such as multivariate functions. Here, the covariance can be so complex that just saving a non-parametric estimate is impractical and structural assumptions are necessary to tame the model. One popular assumption for space-time data is separability of the covariance into purely spatial and temporal factors. In this paper, we present a new test for separability in the context of dependent functional time series. While most of the related work studies functional data in a Hilbert space of square integrable functions, we model the observations as objects in the space of continuous functions equipped with the supremum norm. We argue that this (mathematically challenging) setup enhances interpretability for users and is more in line with practical preprocessing. Our test statistic measures the maximal deviation between the estimated covariance kernel and a separable approximation. Critical values are obtained by a non-standard multiplier bootstrap for dependent data. We prove the statistical validity of our approach and demonstrate its practicability in a simulation study and a data example.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

Fluctuations of the diagonal entries of a large sample precision matrix

For a given $p\times n$ data matrix $\textbf{X}_n$ with i.i.d. centered entries and a population covariance matrix $\bfΣ$, the corresponding sample precision matrix $\hat{\bfΣ}^{-1}$ is defined as the inverse of the sample covariance matrix $\hat{\bfΣ} = (1/n) \bfΣ^{1/2} \textbf{X}_n\textbf{X}_n^\top \bfΣ^{1/2}$. We determine the joint distribution of a vector of diagonal entries of the matrix $\hat{\bfΣ}^{-1}$ in the situation, where $p_n=p< n$ and $p/n \to y \in [0,1)$ for $n\to\infty$ and $\bfΣ$ is a diagonal matrix. Remarkably, our results cover both the case where the dimension is negligible in comparison to the sample size and the case where it is of the same magnitude. Our approach is based on a QR-decomposition of the data matrix, yielding a connection to random quadratic forms and allowing the application of a central limit theorem for martingale difference schemes. Moreover, we discuss an interesting connection to linear spectral statistics of the sample covariance matrix. More precisely, the logarithmic diagonal entry of the sample precision matrix can be interpreted as a difference of two highly dependent linear spectral statistics of $\hat{\bfΣ}$ and a submatrix of $\hat{\bfΣ}$. This difference of spectral statistics fluctuates on a much smaller scale than each single statistic.

math.ST↗

arXiv2022

Validating Approximate Slope Homogeneity in Large Panels

Statistical inference for large data panels is omnipresent in modern economic applications. An important benefit of panel analysis is the possibility to reduce noise and thus to guarantee stable inference by intersectional pooling. However, it is wellknown that pooling can lead to a biased analysis if individual heterogeneity is too strong. In classical linear panel models, this trade-off concerns the homogeneity of slope parameters, and a large body of tests has been developed to validate this assumption. Yet, such tests can detect inconsiderable deviations from slope homogeneity, discouraging pooling, even when practically beneficial. In order to permit a more pragmatic analysis, which allows pooling when individual heterogeneity is sufficiently small, we present in this paper the concept of approximate slope homogeneity. We develop an asymptotic level $α$ test for this hypothesis, that is uniformly consistent against classes of local alternatives. In contrast to existing methods, which focus on exact slope homogeneity and are usually sensitive to dependence in the data, the proposed test statistic is (asymptotically) pivotal and applicable under simultaneous intersectional and temporal dependence. Moreover, it can accommodate the realistic case of panels with large intersections. A simulation study and a data example underline the usefulness of our approach.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

Pivotal tests for relevant differences in the second order dynamics of functional time series

Motivated by the need to statistically quantify differences between modern (complex) data-sets which commonly result as high-resolution measurements of stochastic processes varying over a continuum, we propose novel testing procedures to detect relevant differences between the second order dynamics of two functional time series. In order to take the between-function dynamics into account that characterize this type of functional data, a frequency domain approach is taken. Test statistics are developed to compare differences in the spectral density operators and in the primary modes of variation as encoded in the associated eigenelements. Under mild moment conditions, we show convergence of the underlying statistics to Brownian motions and construct pivotal test statistics. The latter is essential because the nuisance parameters can be unwieldy and their robust estimation infeasible, especially if the two functional time series are dependent. In addition to these novel features, the properties of the tests are robust to any choice of frequency band enabling also to compare energy contents at a single frequency. The finite sample performance of the tests are verified through a simulation study and are illustrated with an application to fMRI data.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

Statistical Quantification of Differential Privacy: A Local Approach

In this work, we introduce a new approach for statistical quantification of differential privacy in a black box setting. We present estimators and confidence intervals for the optimal privacy parameter of a randomized algorithm $A$, as well as other key variables (such as the "data-centric privacy level"). Our estimators are based on a local characterization of privacy and in contrast to the related literature avoid the process of "event selection" - a major obstacle to privacy validation. This makes our methods easy to implement and user-friendly. We show fast convergence rates of the estimators and asymptotic validity of the confidence intervals. An experimental study of various algorithms confirms the efficacy of our approach.

cs.CR↗

arXiv2022

Detecting relevant changes in the spatiotemporal mean function

For a spatiotemporal process $\{X_j(s,t) | ~s \in S~,~t \in T \}_{j =1, \ldots , n} $, where $S$ denotes the set of spatial locations and $T$ the time domain, we consider the problem of testing for a change in the sequence of mean functions. In contrast to most of the literature we are not interested in arbitrarily small changes, but only in changes with a norm exceeding a given threshold. Asymptotically distribution free tests are proposed, which do not require the estimation of the long-run spatiotemporal covariance structure. In particular we consider a fully functional approach and a test based on the cumulative sum paradigm, investigate the large sample properties of the corresponding test statistics and study their finite sample properties by means of simulation study.

math.ST↗

arXiv2022

An RKHS approach for pivotal inference in functional linear regression

We develop methodology for testing hypotheses regarding the slope function in functional linear regression for time series via a reproducing kernel Hilbert space approach. In contrast to most of the literature, which considers tests for the exact nullity of the slope function, we are interested in the null hypothesis that the slope function vanishes only approximately, where deviations are measured with respect to the $L^2$-norm. An asymptotically pivotal test is proposed, which does not require the estimation of nuisance parameters and long-run covariances. The key technical tools to prove the validity of our approach include a uniform Bahadur representation and a weak invariance principle for a sequential process of estimates of the slope function. Both scalar-on-function and function-on-function linear regression are considered and finite-sample methods for implementing our methodology are provided. We also illustrate the potential of our methods by means of a small simulation study and a data example.

math.ST↗

arXiv2021

The integrated copula spectrum

Frequency domain methods form a ubiquitous part of the statistical toolbox for time series analysis. In recent years, considerable interest has been given to the development of new spectral methodology and tools capturing dynamics in the entire joint distributions and thus avoiding the limitations of classical, $L^2$-based spectral methods. Most of the spectral concepts proposed in that literature suffer from one major drawback, though: their estimation requires the choice of a smoothing parameter, which has a considerable impact on estimation quality and poses challenges for statistical inference. In this paper, associated with the concept of copula-based spectrum, we introduce the notion of copula spectral distribution function or integrated copula spectrum. This integrated copula spectrum retains the advantages of copula-based spectra but can be estimated without the need for smoothing parameters. We provide such estimators, along with a thorough theoretical analysis, based on a functional central limit theorem, of their asymptotic properties. We leverage these results to test various hypotheses that cannot be addressed by classical spectral methods, such as the lack of time-reversibility or asymmetry in tail dynamics.

math.ST↗

arXiv2021

Efficient prediction of grain boundary energies from atomistic simulations via sequential design

Data based materials science is the new promise to accelerate materials design. Especially in computational materials science, data generation can easily be automatized. Usually, the focus is on processing and evaluating the data to derive rules or to discover new materials, while less attention is being paid on the strategy to generate the data. In this work, we show that by a sequential design of experiment scheme, the process of generating and learning from the data can be combined to discover the relevant sections of the parameter space. Our example is the energy of grain boundaries as a function of their geometric degrees of freedom, calculated via atomistic simulations. The sampling of this grain boundary energy space, or even subspaces of it, represents a challenge due to the presence of deep cusps of the energy, which are located at irregular intervals of the geometric parameters. Existing approaches to sample grain boundary energy subspaces therefore either need a huge amount of datapoints or a~priori knowledge of the positions of these cusps. We combine statistical methods with atomistic simulations and a sequential sampling technique and compare this strategy to a regular sampling technique. We thereby demonstrate that this sequential design is able to sample a subspace with a minimal amount of points while finding unknown cusps automatically.

cond-mat.mtrl-sci↗

arXiv2021

Asymptotic equivalence for nonparametric regression with dependent errors: Gauss-Markov processes

For the class of Gauss-Markov processes we study the problem of asymptotic equivalence of the nonparametric regression model with errors given by the increments of the process and the continuous time model, where a whole path of a sum of a deterministic signal and the Gauss-Markov process can be observed. In particular we provide sufficient conditions such that asymptotic equivalence of the two models holds for functions from a given class, and we verify these for the special cases of Sobolev ellipsoids and Hölder classes with smoothness index $> 1/2$ under mild assumptions on the Gauss-Markov process at hand. To derive these results, we develop an explicit characterization of the reproducing kernel Hilbert space associated with the Gauss-Markov process, that hinges on a characterization of such processes by a property of the corresponding covariance kernel introduced by Doob. In order to demonstrate that the given assumptions on the Gauss-Markov process are in some sense sharp we also show that asymptotic equivalence fails to hold for the special case of Brownian bridge. Our findings demonstrate that the well-known asymptotic equivalence of the Gaussian white noise model and the nonparametric regression model with i.i.d. standard normal errors can be extended to a result treating general Gauss-Markov noises in a unified manner.

math.ST↗

arXiv2021

Multivariate Mean Comparison under Differential Privacy

The comparison of multivariate population means is a central task of statistical inference. While statistical theory provides a variety of analysis tools, they usually do not protect individuals' privacy. This knowledge can create incentives for participants in a study to conceal their true data (especially for outliers), which might result in a distorted analysis. In this paper we address this problem by developing a hypothesis test for multivariate mean comparisons that guarantees differential privacy to users. The test statistic is based on the popular Hotelling's $t^2$-statistic, which has a natural interpretation in terms of the Mahalanobis distance. In order to control the type-1-error, we present a bootstrap algorithm under differential privacy that provably yields a reliable test decision. In an empirical study we demonstrate the applicability of this approach.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2021

Statistical inference for function-on-function linear regression

Function-on-function linear regression is important for understanding the relationship between the response and the predictor that are both functions. In this article, we propose a reproducing kernel Hilbert space approach to function-on-function linear regressionvia the penalised least square, regularized by the thin-plate spline smoothness penalty. The minimax optimal convergence rate of our estimator of the coefficient function is studied. We derive the Bahadur representation, which allows us to propose statistical inference methods using bootstrap and the convergence of Banach-valued random variables in the sup-norm. We illustrate our method and verify our theoretical results via simulated data experiments and a real data example.

math.ST↗

arXiv2021

Similarity of competing risks models with constant intensities in an application to clinical healthcare pathways involving prostate cancer surgery

The recent availability of routine medical data, especially in a university-clinical context, may enable the discovery of typical healthcare pathways, i.e., typical temporal sequences of clinical interventions or hospital readmissions. However, such pathways are heterogeneous in a large provider such as a university hospital, and it is important to identify similar care pathways that can still be considered typical pathways. We understand the pathway as a temporal process with possible transitions from a single initial treatment state to hospital readmission of different types, which constitutes a competing risk setting. In this paper, we propose a multi-state model-based approach to uncover pathway similarity between two groups of individuals. We describe a new bootstrap procedure for testing the similarity of transition intensities from two competing risk models with constant transition intensities. In a large simulation study, we investigate the performance of our similarity approach with respect to different sample sizes and different similarity thresholds. The studies are motivated by an application from urological clinical routine and we show how the results can be transferred to the application example.

stat.ME↗