arXiv subjects

Holger Hesse

Publications and source records attributed to Holger Hesse.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

From Laboratory Aging Studies to Field Predictions: Quantifying Uncertainty in Battery Storage Lifetime Predictions

Predicting how long a battery energy storage system will last is critical for warranty design, maintenance planning and investment decisions, yet degradation models are mostly deterministic and rarely validated against real field data. We apply an open-source probabilistic degradation framework, combined with a cell-to-system approximation, to bridge the gap between cell-level laboratory aging models and system-level field predictions for residential battery energy storage systems with quantified uncertainty. The framework predicts cell-level state-of-health to within 0.4 % mean absolute error, roughly half the error of prior models for this dataset. When applied to field operation data, the framework's predictions are consistent with all three available system-level capacity measurements - a benchmark rarely available for open probabilistic degradation models. Cell-level heterogeneity is approximated by two bounding stress scenarios differing only slightly (a 5 % spread in temperature and a 9 % spread in current). The mean degradation trajectories of the two scenarios reach end-of-life 10 months apart, while the full predicted end-of-life range across both scenarios spans approximately three years, about a third of the expected system lifetime. We link this uncertainty to two drivers. One is a systematic mismatch between laboratory test conditions and field-representative operating stress. The other is variability in the training data itself. These insights translate into concrete, resource-efficient recommendations for future aging study design, supporting more confident predictions of battery lifetime under real-world conditions.

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arXiv2026

Predicting BESS Degradation with Uncertainty Quantification: A Probabilistic Framework for Battery Energy Storage Systems

Accurate and uncertainty-aware prediction of battery degradation is essential for the reliable operation and lifecycle management of energy storage systems, yet traditional deterministic models fail to capture the inherent uncertainty in degradation processes. This study introduces a framework for probabilistic battery state-of-health prediction. The framework leverages deep learning models to generate predictive distributions for capacity loss, conditioned on stress factors. Uncertainty is propagated through stochastic degradation trajectories, enabling robust predictions even under dynamic operating conditions. A key advancement is the framework's scalability to full-system data: by integrating cell-level predictions with system topology and real-world operational variability, it provides probabilistic estimates for entire battery energy storage systems. The approach is tested using multi-year field data from residential storage systems, demonstrating its ability to mimic system-level degradation behavior. The framework predicts SOH degradation with 95\% prediction intervals that align well with remaining capacity measurements performed on the field system. This work bridges the gap between laboratory test derived battery cell aging models and full-system operational data evaluation for degradation estimation, offering a practical tool for data-driven asset management in modern energy systems.

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arXiv2025

Multi-Objective Nonlinear Power Split Control For BESS With Real-Time Simulation Feedback

This paper presents a mixed-integer, nonlinear, multi-objective optimization strategy for optimal power allocation among parallel strings in Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS). High-fidelity control is achieved by co-simulating the optimizer with a BESS electro-thermal simulation that models spatial thermal dynamics of the battery, providing real-time State of Charge (SOC) and temperature feedback. The optimizer prioritizes reliability by enforcing power availability as a hard constraint and penalizing battery thermal derating. Within these bounds, the controller performs a Pareto sweep on the relative weights of inverter and battery losses to balance the trade-off between inverter efficiency and battery efficiency. The inverter loss model is based on an empirical lookup table (LUT) derived from a commercial inverter system, while the battery thermal loss model uses SOC and temperature-dependent internal resistance, with electric current computed from the battery Equivalent Circuit Model (ECM). When the optimization was applied to a two-string BESS, the competing effects of inverter and battery losses on system availability and thermal derating were observed. The balanced operation yielded improvements of 1% in battery efficiency, 1.5% in inverter efficiency, and 2% in derating efficiency, while maintaining higher availability. Additionally, a 5 degrees C reduction in BESS peak temperature also suggests reduced thermal stress without compromising availability.

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arXiv2025

Accounting for Subsystem Aging Variability in Battery Energy Storage System Optimization

This paper presents a degradation-cost-aware optimization framework for multi-string battery energy storage systems, emphasizing the impact of inhomogeneous subsystem-level aging in operational decision-making. We evaluate four scenarios for an energy arbitrage scenario, that vary in model precision and treatment of aging costs. Key performance metrics include operational revenue, power schedule mismatch, missed revenues, capacity losses, and revenue generated per unit of capacity loss. Our analysis reveals that ignoring heterogeneity of subunits may lead to infeasible dispatch plans and reduced revenues. In contrast, combining accurate representation of degraded subsystems and the consideration of aging costs in the objective function improves operational accuracy and economic efficiency of BESS with heterogeneous aged subunits. The fully informed scenario, which combines aging-cost-aware optimization with precise string-level modeling, achieves 21% higher revenue per unit of SOH loss compared to the baseline scenario. These findings highlight that modeling aging heterogeneity is not just a technical refinement but may become a crucial enabler for maximizing both short-term profitability and long-term asset value in particular for long BESS usage scenarios.

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arXiv2025

Price Aware Power Split Control in Heterogeneous Battery Storage Systems

This paper presents a unified framework for the optimal scheduling of battery dispatch and internal power allocation in Battery energy storage systems (BESS). This novel approach integrates both market-based (price-aware) signals and physical system constraints to simultaneously optimize (1) external energy dispatch and (2) internal heterogeneity management of BESS, enhancing its operational economic value and performance. This work compares both model-based Linear Programming (LP) and model-free Reinforcement Learning (RL) approaches for optimization under varying forecast assumptions, using a custom Gym-based simulation environment. The evaluation considers both long-term and short-term performance, focusing on economic savings, State of Charge (SOC) and temperature balancing, and overall system efficiency. In summary, the long-term results show that the RL approach achieved 10% higher system efficiency compared to LP, whereas the latter yielded 33% greater cumulative savings. In terms of internal heterogeneity, the LP approach resulted in lower mean SOC imbalance, while the RL approach achieved better temperature balance between strings. This behavior is further examined in the short-term evaluation, which indicates that LP delivers strong optimization under known and stable conditions, whereas RL demonstrates higher adaptability in dynamic environments, offering potential advantages for real-time BESS control.

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arXiv2025

Evaluating the Impact of Model Accuracy for Optimizing Battery Energy Storage Systems

This study investigates two models of varying complexity for optimizing intraday arbitrage energy trading of a battery energy storage system using a model predictive control approach. Scenarios reflecting different stages of the system's lifetime are analyzed. The findings demonstrate that the equivalent-circuit-model-based non-linear optimization model outperforms the simpler linear model by delivering more accurate predictions of energy losses and system capabilities. This enhanced accuracy enables improved operational strategies, resulting in increased roundtrip efficiency and revenue, particularly in systems with batteries exhibiting high internal resistance, such as second-life batteries. However, to fully leverage the model's benefits, it is essential to identify the correct parameters.

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arXiv2024

Depreciation Cost is a Poor Proxy for Revenue Lost to Aging in Grid Storage Optimization

Dispatch of a grid energy storage system for arbitrage is typically formulated into a rolling-horizon optimization problem that includes a battery aging model within the cost function. Quantifying degradation as a depreciation cost in the objective can increase overall profits by extending lifetime. However, depreciation is just a proxy metric for battery aging; it is used because simulating the entire system life is challenging due to computational complexity and the absence of decades of future data. In cases where the depreciation cost does not match the loss of possible future revenue, different optimal usage profiles result and this reduces overall profit significantly compared to the best case (e.g., by 30-50%). Representing battery degradation perfectly within the rolling-horizon optimization does not resolve this - in addition, the economic cost of degradation throughout life should be carefully considered. For energy arbitrage, optimal economic dispatch requires a trade-off between overuse, leading to high return rate but short lifetime, vs. underuse, leading to a long but not profitable life. We reveal the intuition behind selecting representative costs for the objective function, and propose a simple moving average filter method to estimate degradation cost. Results show that this better captures peak revenue, assuming reliable price forecasts are available.

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