arXiv subjects

Hongji Pu

Publications and source records attributed to Hongji Pu.

3 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Beyond Forecasting: Recasting Volatility Control as a Routing Problem

Volatility control converts risk estimates into portfolio exposure, yet existing approaches often rely on a fixed volatility estimator or a pre-defined control rule that may not adapt to changing market conditions. We propose VolRouter, a modular framework that formulates volatility control as state-conditioned routing over estimator-controller pairs. VolRouter first summarizes market conditions into a control-relevant state profile and then performs routing through three stages: state inference, switch review, and pair selection. The Router can be implemented using rule-based, learnable, or LLM-based decision modules, while portfolio actions remain generated by predefined control policies. We evaluate VolRouter across S&P 500, Multi-Asset, Bitcoin, and USDT volatility-control settings. VolRouter achieves the highest Sharpe ratio in three of four settings. On S&P 500, it improves Sharpe from 0.952 for RV + Naive Scaling to 1.222 while reducing maximum drawdown from 15.10% to 12.58% and daily CVaR from 1.76% to 1.32%. On Multi-Asset, it improves Sharpe from 1.498 to 1.540 and reduces CVaR from 1.56% to 1.18%. Bitcoin shows similar improvements in risk-adjusted performance, while USDT provides a boundary case where simpler state-aware selectors remain competitive. Ablation and sensitivity analyses show that the improvement comes from relative policy evaluation and selective persistent switching rather than simply expanding the policy library. These results suggest that volatility control can be viewed as a policy-selection problem when risk management requirements vary across market states.

cs.CE↗

arXiv2026

SkillOps: Managing LLM Agent Skill Libraries as Self-Maintaining Software Ecosystems

Large language model agents increasingly rely on skill libraries for multi-step tasks, yet these libraries can accumulate persistent defects as skills are added, reused, patched, and linked to changing dependencies. We call this failure mode skill technical debt: library-level defects that may not break a single skill locally but can harm future retrieval, composition, and execution. Existing skill-based agents mainly focus on task-time retrieval, planning, and repair, while library-time maintenance remains underexplored. We propose SkillOps, a method-agnostic plug-in framework for maintaining skill libraries. SkillOps represents each skill as a typed Skill Contract (P, O, A, V, F), organizes skills with a Hierarchical Skill Ecosystem Graph, and diagnoses library health across utility, compatibility, risk, and validation dimensions. Given a raw skill library, SkillOps produces a maintained library that can be used by existing retrieval or planning agents without changing their internal code. On ALFWorld, SkillOps achieves 79.5 percent task success as a standalone agent, outperforming the strongest baseline by 8.8 percentage points with no additional task-time large language model calls. As a plug-in layer, it improves retrieval-heavy baselines by 0.68 to 2.90 percentage points. The current rule-based maintenance implementation uses nearly zero library-time large language model calls or tokens, showing that skill-library maintenance can be added as a low-overhead architectural layer.

cs.SE↗

arXiv2026

RouteProfile: Graph-Based Profiling for Cold-Start LLM Routing

LLM routing is increasingly important for selecting suitable models under diverse user needs and deployment constraints, but its practical effectiveness depends on continual adaptation to emerging queries and newly released models. New-LLM integration is particularly challenging, as newly released models lack the query-response-reward interactions required for router training and cannot be profiled as directly as new queries via semantic embeddings. Existing profiles are limited: LLM-generated descriptions are often coarse, while interaction-based embeddings are costly to construct. To address this problem, we propose RouteProfile, a graph-based profiling framework that constructs LLM profiles from public signals in technical reports or model cards, including model family, model description, reported benchmark scores, and benchmark domains. RouteProfile organizes these heterogeneous signals into a graph and studies profile construction along four dimensions: organizational form, representation type, aggregation depth, and learning configuration. We evaluate RouteProfile in training-free cold-start routing and new-LLM integration settings. Experiments show that: (1) structured profiles outperform flat baselines in training-free cold-start routing; (2) model family metadata is more reliable than benchmark domain information; and (3) effective new-LLM integration requires profile-router co-design. Overall, our findings highlight the importance of profile design for enabling routing systems to adapt to the evolving model ecosystem.

cs.NI↗