Hongmiao Fan | Searcharxiv

arXiv2026

Decision-Making under Combinatorial Risk

Decision-making under risk is typically studied through single-shot lottery choices. Yet many real decisions involve combinatorial risk, where risk arises from multiple risky components, so the lottery over outcomes is induced rather than given outright and can be costly to evaluate exactly. We introduce an investment-allocation task to study decision under combinatorial risk, where investing in a component raises its success probability and thereby reshapes the outcome distribution. Participants favor the option with the larger probability increment, and, when increments are equal, the option with the higher initial success probability. Revealing the induced probability mass function (PMF) substantially changes behavior, making participants less responsive to combinatorial-risk features and reducing choice variance. To explain these patterns, we move beyond standard benchmarks and hand-crafted hypotheses with symbolic regression to discover compact descriptive models. The discovered models rely mainly on combinatorial-risk features, such as the after-investment success probability, rather than exact evaluation of the full induced distribution. Behavior under the displayed PMF is then well explained by augmenting this model with a prospect-theoretic residual model. The results show that people navigate combinatorial risk primarily through its core features, shifting toward lottery valuation only when the induced PMF is displayed.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

RadCloudSplat: Scatterer-Driven 3D Gaussian Splatting with Point-Cloud Priors for Radiomap Extrapolation

A radiomap represents the spatial distribution of wireless signal strength, which is critical for applications like network optimization. However, constructing a radiomap relies on measuring radio signal power across the entire system, which is costly in outdoor environments due to large network scales. We present RadCloudSplat, a framework that extends 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) to radio frequencies for efficient and accurate radiomap extrapolation from sparse measurements. RadCloudSplat models environmental scatterers and radio paths using 3D Gaussians, capturing key factors of radio wave propagation. It employs a relaxed-mean (RM) scheme to reparameterize the positions of 3D Gaussians from noisy and dense 3D point clouds. A camera-free 3DGS-based projection is proposed to map 3D Gaussians onto 2D radio beam patterns. Furthermore, a regularized loss function and recursive fine-tuning using highly structured sparse measurements in real-world settings are applied to ensure robust generalization. Experiments on synthetic and real-world data show state-of-the-art extrapolation accuracy and execution speed, solidifying the framework's credibility for real-world deployment.

eess.SP↗