arXiv subjects

Hongtu Zhu

Publications and source records attributed to Hongtu Zhu.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Influence-Directed Distillation: Solving the Diversity Bottleneck in Sampled-Token On-Policy Distillation

Sampled-token on-policy distillation (OPD) efficiently transfers capabilities from teacher to student using student-generated tokens, requiring teacher probabilities only for sampled tokens. Yet it frequently suffers from diversity distillation failure: the student's pass@1 improves while its pass@$k$ plateaus, failing to inherit the teacher's diversity. To explain this, we introduce First-Order Local Entropy Influence, a signed first-order proxy that decouples each update's entropy effect into the teacher--student log-probability gap and the student's local probability structure, and empirically links entropy contraction to negative-influence positions. Motivated by this, we propose Influence-Directed Adaptive On-Policy Distillation (IDA-OPD): rather than relying on costly full-vocabulary Forward-KL objectives, it preserves entropy-expanding updates while replacing entropy-contracting ones with divergence-adaptive advantage shrinkage, using only the teacher's sampled-token log-probability. Experiments on reasoning-oriented distillation show IDA-OPD consistently improves pass@$k$, inheriting the teacher's diversity through distillation, matches the strongest teacher-informed methods at strictly lower cost, and broadly maintains vanilla OPD's pass@1, all without full-vocabulary teacher information.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Non-Crossing Deep Quantile Regression for Distributional Survival Prediction

In survival analysis the way covariates act on the risk of an event often differs between early and late failure times, yet hazard- and mean-based summaries collapse this variation into a single number. Quantile-based modeling instead describes the full conditional distribution on the original time scale, but existing censored-data methods are either inflexible or produce logically inconsistent crossing quantile curves. We propose a Censored Non-crossing Quantile (CNQ) framework for right-censored data that jointly estimates several conditional survival quantiles and guarantees valid ordering by construction, with flexibility supplied by Kolmogorov-Arnold and Transformer backbones, and we establish a finite-sample excess-risk bound holding jointly across all fitted quantile levels. Across 27 simulation settings and six cohorts the framework attains lower pinball loss than quantile-, hazard- and tree-based competitors whenever the conditional distribution is asymmetric, with interval coverage closer to nominal on all six. In two clinical case studies (METABRIC, breast cancer; FLCHAIN, population mortality) it recovers covariate effects that vary across the survival distribution and would be hidden by a single hazard ratio, and yields coherent individualized quantile milestones. Code: https://github.com/BIG-S2/deepcnq

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

Mixture of Geodesic Factor Analyzers on Riemannian Homogeneous Spaces

This paper introduces Mixtures of Geodesic Factor Analyzers (MGFA) on Riemannian homogeneous spaces. MGFA uses a geodesic factor model within each mixture component, providing greater expressiveness than mixtures of Riemannian radial distributions and enabling clustering of manifold-valued data with anisotropic subpopulations. We establish root-$n$ consistency for the MGFA maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), thereby filling a theoretical gap for mixtures of Riemannian radial distributions as a special case. We also propose an iterative estimation algorithm and implement it on spheres, shape spaces, and hyperbolic spaces. Numerical experiments show that MGFA substantially outperforms competing methods in well-specified regimes while remaining robust under model misspecification. Finally, case studies on corpus callosum and left hippocampus shape datasets demonstrate MGFA's effectiveness for both 2D contour and 3D shape analysis.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

GAttNHP: Group Attention Neural Hawkes Process for Extrapolation Reasoning in Temporal Knowledge Graphs

Temporal Knowledge Graphs (TKGs) record how facts evolve over time, but forecasting future events on a TKG remains difficult for three reasons: (i) long-range temporal dependencies are hard to encode; (ii) events on different chains mutually excite or inhibit one another in ways that snapshot-level models cannot express; and (iii) inter-arrival times are heavy-tailed and statistically sparse, so deterministic time predictors are unreliable. We address these three issues with a single framework, the \textbf{Group Attention Neural Hawkes Process (GAttNHP)}, built around three matched components. First, a self-attention encoder casts each subject--relation chain as a continuous-time point process and captures the lingering excitation of distant history. Second, a semantic soft-grouping module turns globally learnable Hawkes priors into an analytical cross-attention mask, so chains share excitation patterns through their latent group memberships rather than through exhaustive pairwise computation. Third, a Non-Crossing Quantile (NCQ) regression head replaces mean-based time prediction, providing calibrated, monotonically ordered quantile estimates that remain stable under heavy-tailed inter-arrival distributions. On six benchmark TKG datasets, GAttNHP improves over state-of-the-art baselines on both entity prediction and time prediction, and ablations confirm that its largest gains arise on the long-tail event chains where existing models fail most severely.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Mitigating Batch Effects in Histopathology via Language-Mediated Robust Embedding Generation

Pathology foundation models (PFMs) have demonstrated strong potential across clinical and scientific applications, yet their performance is often hindered by batch effects, which are non-biological variations across tissue source institutions (TSIs) that distort learned feature representations and impair generalization. Conventional mitigation strategies, such as stain normalization, offer limited success in addressing these high-dimensional, complex artifacts. We present GLMP (General-purpose LLM-Mediated Pathology model), a novel framework that generates robust numerical embeddings from histology image patches through an intermediate textual representation. By leveraging pretrained general-purpose multimodal large language models (MLLMs) and text encoders, GLMP effectively prioritizes biologically meaningful signals over TSI-specific artifacts, thereby improving cross-institutional generalization. To our knowledge, GLMP is the first pathology model to use text descriptions of histological features as an intermediate representation for generating numerical embeddings from histology images. Our results highlight the untapped potential of broad-domain, non-specialized MLLMs in computational pathology and introduce a new paradigm for building versatile, generalizable, and robust pathology models.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

Small RL Controller, Large Language Model: RL-Guided Adaptive Sampling for Test-Time Scaling

Test-time scaling improves the reasoning performance of large language models but incurs substantial cost in both total computation and latency. Existing adaptive sampling methods partially mitigate this issue by dynamically deciding when to stop sampling, yet they typically rely on heuristic rules or rely on distribution assumptions. In this work, we formulate adaptive sampling as a Markov decision process (MDP). We train a lightweight sampling controller with reinforcement learning (RL) to jointly balance answer correctness, latency, and computation cost. At each round, the controller decides to stop sampling or to acquire additional samples. Our method is lightweight which only relies on statistics of final answers, and can be trained and deployed on CPU. We further show that the resulting framework admits an interpretation as the Lagrangian relaxation of a constrained optimization problem with explicit budget constraints. Experiments against strong baselines such as ASC and ESC show that our method achieves improved trade-offs among answer correctness, sampling rounds, and total samples required.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Global Average Treatment Effects for Individualized Randomization Experiments with Aggregate Data

Individualized randomized experiments are central to online platforms for optimizing personalized decisions in complex environments. In two-sided markets, however, standard treatment effect estimation is often invalid due to strong temporal and cross-unit interference, a challenge compounded when only aggregated data are available because of privacy or system constraints. To address these issues, we identify the Global Average Treatment Effect (GATE) using only group-level data from treatment and control groups. We first establish identification conditions based on aggregated observations, and then propose the Individualized Randomized Experiment Varying Coefficient Decision Process (IRE-VCDP) model, which accounts for interference through supply-demand dynamics. Building on this framework, we develop a complete procedure for estimation and statistical inference of the GATE, along with theoretical guarantees for the proposed test. Extensive simulations and real-world experiments using data from a leading ridesharing platform demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

AutoResearchClaw: Self-Reinforcing Autonomous Research with Human-AI Collaboration

Automating scientific discovery requires more than generating papers from ideas. Real research is iterative: hypotheses are challenged from multiple perspectives, experiments fail and inform the next attempt, and lessons accumulate across cycles. Existing autonomous research systems often model this process as a linear pipeline: they rely on single-agent reasoning, stop when execution fails, and do not carry experience across runs. We present AutoResearchClaw, a multi-agent autonomous research pipeline built on five mechanisms: structured multi-agent debate for hypothesis generation and result analysis, a self-healing executor with a \textsc{Pivot}/\textsc{Refine} decision loop that transforms failures into information, verifiable result reporting that prevents fabricated numbers and hallucinated citations, human-in-the-loop collaboration with seven intervention modes spanning full autonomy to step-by-step oversight, and cross-run evolution that converts past mistakes into future safeguards. On ARC-Bench, a 25-topic experiment-stage benchmark, AutoResearchClaw outperforms AI Scientist v2 by 54.7%. A human-in-the-loop ablation across seven intervention modes reveals that precise, targeted collaboration at high-leverage decision points consistently outperforms both full autonomy and exhaustive step-by-step oversight. We position AutoResearchClaw as a research amplifier that augments rather than replaces human scientific judgment. Code is available at https://github.com/aiming-lab/AutoResearchClaw.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

Robust Sequential Experimental Design for A/B Testing

Experimental design has emerged as a powerful approach for improving the sample efficiency of A/B testing, yet existing designs rely critically on correctly specified models. We study robust sequential experimental design under model misspecification and develop a unified framework that covers both contextual bandit and dynamic settings. Theoretically, we prove that our design bounds the worst-case mean squared error of the estimated treatment effect. Empirically, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach using synthetic and real-world datasets from a leading technology company.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

MedVerse: Efficient and Reliable Medical Reasoning via DAG-Structured Parallel Execution

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong performance and rapid progress in a wide range of medical reasoning tasks. However, their sequential autoregressive decoding forces inherently parallel clinical reasoning, such as differential diagnosis, into a single linear reasoning path, limiting both efficiency and reliability for complex medical problems. To address this, we propose MedVerse, a reasoning framework for complex medical inference that reformulates medical reasoning as a parallelizable directed acyclic graph (DAG) process based on Petri net theory. The framework adopts a full-stack design across data, model architecture, and system execution. For data creation, we introduce the MedVerse Curator, an automated pipeline that synthesizes knowledge-grounded medical reasoning paths and transforms them into Petri net-structured representations. At the architectural level, we propose a topology-aware attention mechanism with adaptive position indices that supports parallel reasoning while preserving logical consistency. Systematically, we develop a customized inference engine that supports parallel execution without additional overhead. Empirical evaluations show that MedVerse improves strong general-purpose LLMs by up to 8.9%. Compared to specialized medical LLMs, MedVerse achieves comparable performance while delivering a 1.3x reduction in inference latency and a 1.7x increase in generation throughput, enabled by its parallel decoding capability. Code is available at https://github.com/aiming-lab/MedVerse.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Evidence-Based Actor-Verifier Reasoning for Echocardiographic Agents

Echocardiography plays an important role in the screening and diagnosis of cardiovascular diseases. However, automated intelligent analysis of echocardiographic data remains challenging due to complex cardiac dynamics and strong view heterogeneity. In recent years, visual language models (VLM) have opened a new avenue for building ultrasound understanding systems for clinical decision support. Nevertheless, most existing methods formulate this task as a direct mapping from video and question to answer, making them vulnerable to template shortcuts and spurious explanations. To address these issues, we propose EchoTrust, an evidence-driven Actor-Verifier framework for trustworthy reasoning in echocardiography VLM-based agents. EchoTrust produces a structured intermediate representation that is subsequently analyzed by distinct roles, enabling more reliable and interpretable decision-making for high-stakes clinical applications.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2026

Statistical Opportunities in Neuroimaging

Neuroimaging has profoundly enhanced our understanding of the human brain by characterizing its structure, function, and connectivity through modalities like MRI, fMRI, EEG, and PET. These technologies have enabled major breakthroughs across the lifespan, from early brain development to neurodegenerative and neuropsychiatric disorders. Despite these advances, the brain is a complex, multiscale system, and neuroimaging measurements are correspondingly high-dimensional. This creates major statistical challenges, including measurement noise, motion-related artifacts, substantial inter-subject and site/scanner variability, and the sheer scale of modern studies. This paper explores statistical opportunities and challenges in neuroimaging across four key areas: (i) brain development from birth to age 20, (ii) the adult and aging brain, (iii) neurodegeneration and neuropsychiatric disorders, and (iv) brain encoding and decoding. After a quick tutorial on major imaging technologies, we review cutting-edge studies, underscore data and modeling challenges, and highlight research opportunities for statisticians. We conclude by emphasizing that close collaboration among statisticians, neuroscientists, and clinicians is essential for translating neuroimaging advances into improved diagnostics, deeper mechanistic insight, and more personalized treatments.

stat.AP↗

arXiv2026

Parallel-Probe: Towards Efficient Parallel Thinking via 2D Probing

Parallel thinking has emerged as a promising paradigm for reasoning, yet it imposes significant computational burdens. Existing efficiency methods primarily rely on local, per-trajectory signals and lack principled mechanisms to exploit global dynamics across parallel branches. We introduce 2D probing, an interface that exposes the width-depth dynamics of parallel thinking by periodically eliciting intermediate answers from all branches. Our analysis reveals three key insights: non-monotonic scaling across width-depth allocations, heterogeneous reasoning branch lengths, and early stabilization of global consensus. Guided by these insights, we introduce $\textbf{Parallel-Probe}$, a training-free controller designed to optimize online parallel thinking. Parallel-Probe employs consensus-based early stopping to regulate reasoning depth and deviation-based branch pruning to dynamically adjust width. Extensive experiments across three benchmarks and multiple models demonstrate that Parallel-Probe establishes a superior Pareto frontier for test-time scaling. Compared to standard majority voting, it reduces sequential tokens by up to $\textbf{35.8}$% and total token cost by over $\textbf{25.8}$% while maintaining competitive accuracy.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

Designing Time Series Experiments in A/B Testing with Transformer Reinforcement Learning

A/B testing has become a gold standard for modern technological companies to conduct policy evaluation. Yet, its application to time series experiments, where policies are sequentially assigned over time, remains challenging. Existing designs suffer from two limitations: (i) they do not fully leverage the entire history for treatment allocation; (ii) they rely on strong assumptions to approximate the objective function (e.g., the mean squared error of the estimated treatment effect) for optimizing the design. We first establish an impossibility theorem showing that failure to condition on the full history leads to suboptimal designs, due to the dynamic dependencies in time series experiments. To address both limitations simultaneously, we next propose a transformer reinforcement learning (RL) approach which leverages transformers to condition allocation on the entire history and employs RL to directly optimize the MSE without relying on restrictive assumptions. Empirical evaluations on synthetic data, a publicly available dispatch simulator, and a real-world ridesharing dataset demonstrate that our proposal consistently outperforms existing designs.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

Causal Inference in Biomedical Imaging via Functional Linear Structural Equation Models

Understanding the causal effects of organ-specific features from medical imaging on clinical outcomes is essential for biomedical research and patient care. We propose a novel Functional Linear Structural Equation Model (FLSEM) to capture the relationships among clinical outcomes, functional imaging exposures, and scalar covariates like genetics, sex, and age. Traditional methods struggle with the infinite-dimensional nature of exposures and complex covariates. Our FLSEM overcomes these challenges by establishing identifiable conditions using scalar instrumental variables. We develop the Functional Group Support Detection and Root Finding (FGS-DAR) algorithm for efficient variable selection, supported by rigorous theoretical guarantees, including selection consistency and accurate parameter estimation. We further propose a test statistic to test the nullity of the functional coefficient, establishing its null limit distribution. Our approach is validated through extensive simulations and applied to UK Biobank data, demonstrating robust performance in detecting causal relationships from medical imaging.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

MMedAgent-RL: Optimizing Multi-Agent Collaboration for Multimodal Medical Reasoning

Medical Large Vision-Language Models (Med-LVLMs) have shown strong potential in multimodal diagnostic tasks. However, existing single-agent models struggle to generalize across diverse medical specialties, limiting their performance. Recent efforts introduce multi-agent collaboration frameworks inspired by clinical workflows, where general practitioners (GPs) and specialists interact in a fixed sequence. Despite improvements, these static pipelines lack flexibility and adaptability in reasoning. To address this, we propose MMedAgent-RL, a reinforcement learning (RL)-based multi-agent framework that enables dynamic, optimized collaboration among medical agents. Specifically, we train two GP agents based on Qwen2.5-VL via RL: the triage doctor learns to assign patients to appropriate specialties, while the attending physician integrates the judgments from multi-specialists and its own knowledge to make final decisions. To address the inconsistency in specialist outputs, we introduce a curriculum learning (CL)-guided RL strategy with dynamic entropy regulation, progressively teaching the attending physician to balance between imitating specialists and correcting their mistakes. Experiments on five medical VQA benchmarks demonstrate that MMedAgent-RL outperforms both open-source and proprietary Med-LVLMs. Notably, it achieves an average performance gain of 23.6% over strong baselines.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2026

"Rebuilding" Statistics in the Age of AI: A Town Hall Discussion on Culture, Infrastructure, and Training

This article presents the full, original record of the 2024 Joint Statistical Meetings (JSM) town hall, "Statistics in the Age of AI," which convened leading statisticians to discuss how the field is evolving in response to advances in artificial intelligence, foundation models, large-scale empirical modeling, and data-intensive infrastructures. The town hall was structured around open panel discussion and extensive audience Q&A, with the aim of eliciting candid, experience-driven perspectives rather than formal presentations or prepared statements. This document preserves the extended exchanges among panelists and audience members, with minimal editorial intervention, and organizes the conversation around five recurring questions concerning disciplinary culture and practices, data curation and "data work," engagement with modern empirical modeling, training for large-scale AI applications, and partnerships with key AI stakeholders. By providing an archival record of this discussion, the preprint aims to support transparency, community reflection, and ongoing dialogue about the evolving role of statistics in the data- and AI-centric future.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2026

An Uncertainty-Aware Generalization Framework for Cardiovascular Image Segmentation

Deep learning models have achieved significant success in segmenting cardiovascular structures, but there is a growing need to improve their generalization and robustness. Current methods often face challenges such as overfitting and limited accuracy, largely due to their reliance on large annotated datasets and limited optimization techniques. This paper introduces the UU-Mamba model, an extension of the U-Mamba architecture, designed to address these challenges in both cardiac and vascular segmentation. By incorporating Sharpness-Aware Minimization (SAM), the model enhances generalization by seeking flatter minima in the loss landscape. Additionally, we propose an uncertainty-aware loss function that integrates region-based, distribution-based, and pixel-based components, improving segmentation accuracy by capturing both local and global features. We expand our evaluations on the ImageCAS (coronary artery) and Aorta (aortic branches and zones) datasets, which present more complex segmentation challenges than the ACDC dataset (left and right ventricles) used in prior work, showcasing the model's adaptability and resilience. Our results confirm UU-Mamba's superior performance compared to leading models such as TransUNet, Swin-Unet, nnUNet, and nnFormer. We also provide a more in-depth assessment of the model's robustness and segmentation accuracy through extensive experiments.

cs.AI↗