arXiv subjects

Hongxi Luo

Publications and source records attributed to Hongxi Luo.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Industrial overcapacity can enable seasonal flexibility in electricity use

In many countries, declining demand in energy-intensive industries (EIIs) such as cement, steel, and aluminum is leading to industrial overcapacity. Although industrial overcapacity is traditionally envisioned as problematic and resource-wasteful, it could unlock EIIs' flexibility in electricity use. Here, using China's aluminum smelting industry as a case study, we evaluate the system-level cost-benefit of retaining EII overcapacity for flexible electricity use in decarbonized energy systems. We find that overcapacity can enable aluminum smelters to adopt a seasonal operation paradigm, ceasing production during winter load peaks that are exacerbated by heating electrification and renewable seasonality. This seasonal operation paradigm could reduce the investment and operational costs of China's decarbonized electricity system by 23-32 billion CNY/year (11-15% of the aluminum smelting industry's product value), sufficient to offset the increased smelter maintenance and product storage costs associated with overcapacity. It may also create labor complementarities between the aluminum and thermal power sectors.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2025

Scaling green hydrogen and CCUS via cement-methanol co-production in China

High costs of green hydrogen and of carbon capture, utilization, and sequestration (CCUS) have hindered policy ambition and slowed real-world deployment, despite their importance for decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors, including cement and methanol. Given the economic challenges of adopting CCUS in cement and green hydrogen in methanol production separately, we propose a renewable-powered co-production system that couples electrolytic hydrogen and CCUS through molecule exchange. We optimize system configurations using an hourly-resolved, process-based model incorporating operational flexibility, and explore integrated strategies for plant-level deployment and CO2 source-sink matching across China. We find that co-production could reduce CO2 abatement costs to USD 41-53 per tonne by 2035, significantly lower than approximately USD 75 for standalone cement CCUS and over USD 120 for standalone renewable-based methanol. Co-production is preferentially deployed at cement plants in renewable-rich regions, potentially reshaping national CO2 infrastructure planning. This hydrogen-CCUS coupling paradigm could accelerate industrial decarbonization and scaling for other applications.

eess.SY↗

arXiv2025

Decarbonizing Basic Chemicals Production in North America, Europe, Middle East, and China: a Scenario Modeling Study

The chemicals industry accounts for about 5% of global greenhouse gas emissions today and is among the most difficult industries to abate. We model decarbonization pathways for the most energy-intensive segment of the industry, the production of basic chemicals: olefins, aromatics, methanol, ammonia, and chlor-alkali. Unlike most prior pathways studies, we apply a scenario-analysis approach that recognizes the central role of corporate investment decision making for capital-intensive industries, under highly uncertain long-term future investment environments. We vary the average pace of decarbonization capital allocation allowed under plausible alternative future world contexts and construct least-cost decarbonization timelines by modeling abatement projects individually across more than 2,600 production facilities located in four major producing regions. The timeline for deeply decarbonizing production varies by chemical and region but depends importantly on the investment environment context. In the best-of-all environments, to deeply decarbonize production, annual average capital spending for abatement for the next two to three decades will need to be greater than (and in addition to) historical "business-as-usual" investments, and cumulative investment in abatement projects would exceed $1 trillion. In futures where key drivers constrain investment appetites, timelines for decarbonizing the industry extend well into the second half of the century.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2023

Inflation Reduction Act impacts on the economics of clean hydrogen and liquid fuels

The Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) in the United States provides unprecedented incentives for deploying low-carbon hydrogen and liquid fuels, among other low greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions technologies. To better understand the prospective competitiveness of low-carbon or negative-carbon hydrogen and liquid fuels under the IRA in the early 2030s, we examine the impacts of IRA provisions on costs of producing hydrogen and synthetic liquid fuel made from natural gas, electricity, short-cycle biomass (agricultural residues), and corn-ethanol. With IRA credits (45V or 45Q), but excluding incentives provided by other national or state policies, hydrogen produced by electrolysis using carbon-free electricity (green H2) and natural gas reforming with carbon capture and storage (CCS) (blue H2) are cost-competitive with the carbon-intensive benchmark gray H2 from steam methane reforming. Biomass-derived H2 with or without CCS is not cost-completive under current IRA provisions. However, if IRA allowed biomass gasification with CCS to claim a 45V credit for carbon-neutral H2 and a 45Q credit for negative biogenic-CO2 emissions, this pathway would be less costly than gray H2. The IRA credit for clean fuels (45Z), currently stipulated to end in 2027, would need to be extended, or similar policy support provided by other national or state policies, for clean synthetic liquid fuel to be cost-competitive with petroleum-derived liquid fuels. Levelized IRA subsidies per unit of CO2 mitigated for all hydrogen and synthetic liquid fuel production pathways, except electricity-derived synthetic liquid fuel, range from 65 to 384 $/t CO2, which is within or below the range in U.S. federal government estimates of the Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) in the 2030 to 2040 timeframe.

eess.SY↗