arXiv subjects

Hongyuan Mei

Publications and source records attributed to Hongyuan Mei.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Improving Clinical Diagnosis with Counterfactual Multi-Agent Reasoning

Clinical diagnosis is a complex reasoning process in which clinicians gather evidence, form hypotheses, and test them against alternative explanations. In medical training, this reasoning is explicitly developed through counterfactual questioning--e.g., asking how a diagnosis would change if a key symptom were absent or altered--to strengthen differential diagnosis skills. As large language model (LLM)-based systems are increasingly used for diagnostic support, ensuring the interpretability of their recommendations becomes critical. However, most existing LLM-based diagnostic agents reason over fixed clinical evidence without explicitly testing how individual findings support or weaken competing diagnoses. In this work, we propose a counterfactual multi-agent diagnostic framework inspired by clinician training that makes hypothesis testing explicit and evidence-grounded. Our framework introduces counterfactual case editing to modify clinical findings and evaluate how these changes affect competing diagnoses. We further define the Counterfactual Probability Gap, a method that quantifies how strongly individual findings support a diagnosis by measuring confidence shifts under these edits. These counterfactual signals guide multi-round specialist discussions, enabling agents to challenge unsupported hypotheses, refine differential diagnoses, and produce more interpretable reasoning trajectories. Across three diagnostic benchmarks and seven LLMs, our method consistently improves diagnostic accuracy over prompting and prior multi-agent baselines, with the largest gains observed in complex and ambiguous cases. Human evaluation further indicates that our framework produces more clinically useful, reliable, and coherent reasoning. These results suggest that incorporating counterfactual evidence verification is an important step toward building reliable AI systems for clinical decision support.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2026

MEMO: Memory-Augmented Model Context Optimization for Robust Multi-Turn Multi-Agent LLM Games

Multi-turn, multi-agent LLM game evaluations often exhibit substantial run-to-run variance. In long-horizon interactions, small early deviations compound across turns and are amplified by multi-agent coupling. This biases win rate estimates and makes rankings unreliable across repeated tournaments. Prompt choice worsens this further by producing different effective policies. We address both instability and underperformance with MEMO (Memory-augmented MOdel context optimization), a self-play framework that optimizes inference-time context by coupling retention and exploration. Retention maintains a persistent memory bank that stores structured insights from self-play trajectories and injects them as priors during later play. Exploration runs tournament-style prompt evolution with uncertainty-aware selection via TrueSkill, and uses prioritized replay to revisit rare and decisive states. Across five text-based games, MEMO raises mean win rate from 25.1% to 49.5% for GPT-4o-mini and from 20.9% to 44.3% for Qwen-2.5-7B-Instruct, using $2,000$ self-play games per task. Run-to-run variance also drops, giving more stable rankings across prompt variations. These results suggest that multi-agent LLM game performance and robustness have substantial room for improvement through context optimization. MEMO achieves the largest gains in negotiation and imperfect-information games, while RL remains more effective in perfect-information settings. All code is open-source and available here: https://github.com/openverse-ai/MEMO

cs.AI↗

arXiv2026

$\nabla$-Reasoner: LLM Reasoning via Test-Time Gradient Descent in Latent Space

Scaling inference-time compute for Large Language Models (LLMs) has unlocked unprecedented reasoning capabilities. However, existing inference-time scaling methods typically rely on inefficient and suboptimal discrete search algorithms or trial-and-error prompting to improve the online policy. In this paper, we propose $\nabla$-Reasoner, an iterative generation framework that integrates differentiable optimization over token logits into the decoding loop to refine the policy on the fly. Our core component, Differentiable Textual Optimization (DTO), leverages gradient signals from both the LLM's likelihood and a reward model to refine textual representations. $\nabla$-Reasoner further incorporates rejection sampling and acceleration design to robustify and speed up decoding. Theoretically, we show that performing inference-time gradient descent in the sample space to maximize reward is dual to aligning an LLM policy via KL-regularized reinforcement learning. Empirically, $\nabla$-Reasoner achieves over 20% accuracy improvement on a challenging mathematical reasoning benchmark, while reducing number of model calls by approximately 10-40% compared to strong baselines. Overall, our work introduces a paradigm shift from zeroth-order search to first-order optimization at test time, offering a cost-effective path to amplify LLM reasoning.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Generalization of RLVR Using Causal Reasoning as a Testbed

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has emerged as a promising paradigm for post-training large language models (LLMs) on complex reasoning tasks. Yet, the conditions under which RLVR yields robust generalization remain underexplored. This paper provides an empirical study of RLVR generalization in the setting of probabilistic inference over causal graphical models. This setting offers two natural axes along which to examine generalization: (i) the level of the probabilistic query -- associational, interventional, or counterfactual -- and (ii) the structural complexity of the query, measured by the size of its relevant subgraph. We construct a dataset of causal graphs and queries spanning these difficulty axes and fine-tune Qwen-2.5-Instruct models using RLVR or supervised fine-tuning (SFT). We vary both the model scale (3B-32B) and the query level included in training. We find that RLVR yields stronger within-level and across-level generalization than SFT, but only for specific combinations of model size and training query level. Further analysis shows that RLVR's effectiveness depends on the model's initial reasoning competence. With sufficient initial competence, RLVR improves an LLM's marginalization strategy and reduces errors in intermediate probability calculations, producing substantial accuracy gains, particularly on more complex queries. These results show that RLVR can improve specific causal reasoning subskills, with its benefits emerging only when the model has sufficient initial competence. Our code and data is available at https://github.com/zhichul/rlcausal.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Executable Counterfactuals: Improving LLMs' Causal Reasoning Through Code

Counterfactual reasoning, a hallmark of intelligence, consists of three steps: inferring latent variables from observations (abduction), constructing alternatives (interventions), and predicting their outcomes (prediction). This skill is essential for advancing LLMs' causal understanding and expanding their applications in high-stakes domains such as scientific research. However, existing efforts in assessing LLM's counterfactual reasoning capabilities tend to skip the abduction step, effectively reducing to interventional reasoning and leading to overestimation of LLM performance. To address this, we introduce executable counterfactuals, a novel framework that operationalizes causal reasoning through code and math problems. Our framework explicitly requires all three steps of counterfactual reasoning and enables scalable synthetic data creation with varying difficulty, creating a frontier for evaluating and improving LLM's reasoning. Our results reveal substantial drop in accuracy (25-40%) from interventional to counterfactual reasoning for SOTA models like o4-mini and Claude-4-Sonnet. To address this gap, we construct a training set comprising counterfactual code problems having if-else condition and test on out-of-domain code structures (e.g. having while-loop); we also test whether a model trained on code would generalize to counterfactual math word problems. While supervised finetuning on stronger models' reasoning traces improves in-domain performance of Qwen models, it leads to a decrease in accuracy on OOD tasks such as counterfactual math problems. In contrast, reinforcement learning induces the core cognitive behaviors and generalizes to new domains, yielding gains over the base model on both code (improvement of 1.5x-2x) and math problems. Analysis of the reasoning traces reinforces these findings and highlights the promise of RL for improving LLMs' counterfactual reasoning.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

FlowRL: Matching Reward Distributions for LLM Reasoning

We propose FlowRL: matching the full reward distribution via flow balancing instead of maximizing rewards in large language model (LLM) reinforcement learning (RL). Recent advanced reasoning models adopt reward-maximizing methods (\eg, PPO and GRPO), which tend to over-optimize dominant reward signals while neglecting less frequent but valid reasoning paths, thus reducing diversity. In contrast, we transform scalar rewards into a normalized target distribution using a learnable partition function, and then minimize the reverse KL divergence between the policy and the target distribution. We implement this idea as a flow-balanced optimization method that promotes diverse exploration and generalizable reasoning trajectories. We conduct experiments on math and code reasoning tasks: FlowRL achieves a significant average improvement of $10.0\%$ over GRPO and $5.1\%$ over PPO on math benchmarks, and performs consistently better on code reasoning tasks. These results highlight reward distribution-matching as a key step toward efficient exploration and diverse reasoning in LLM reinforcement learning.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2025

Creativity or Brute Force? Using Brainteasers as a Window into the Problem-Solving Abilities of Large Language Models

Accuracy remains a standard metric for evaluating AI systems, but it offers limited insight into how models arrive at their solutions. In this work, we introduce a benchmark based on brainteasers written in long narrative form to probe more deeply into the types of reasoning strategies that models use. Brainteasers are well-suited for this goal because they can be solved with multiple approaches, such as a few-step solution that uses a creative insight or a longer solution that uses more brute force. We investigate large language models (LLMs) across multiple layers of reasoning, focusing not only on correctness but also on the quality and creativity of their solutions. We investigate many aspects of the reasoning process: (1) semantic parsing of the brainteasers into precise mathematical competition style formats; (2) generating solutions from these mathematical forms; (3) self-correcting solutions based on gold solutions; (4) producing step-by-step sketches of solutions; and (5) making use of hints. We find that LLMs are in many cases able to find creative, insightful solutions to brainteasers, suggesting that they capture some of the capacities needed to solve novel problems in creative ways. Nonetheless, there also remain situations where they rely on brute force despite the availability of more efficient, creative solutions, highlighting a potential direction for improvement in the reasoning abilities of LLMs.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

CaseSumm: A Large-Scale Dataset for Long-Context Summarization from U.S. Supreme Court Opinions

This paper introduces CaseSumm, a novel dataset for long-context summarization in the legal domain that addresses the need for longer and more complex datasets for summarization evaluation. We collect 25.6K U.S. Supreme Court (SCOTUS) opinions and their official summaries, known as "syllabuses." Our dataset is the largest open legal case summarization dataset, and is the first to include summaries of SCOTUS decisions dating back to 1815. We also present a comprehensive evaluation of LLM-generated summaries using both automatic metrics and expert human evaluation, revealing discrepancies between these assessment methods. Our evaluation shows Mistral 7b, a smaller open-source model, outperforms larger models on most automatic metrics and successfully generates syllabus-like summaries. In contrast, human expert annotators indicate that Mistral summaries contain hallucinations. The annotators consistently rank GPT-4 summaries as clearer and exhibiting greater sensitivity and specificity. Further, we find that LLM-based evaluations are not more correlated with human evaluations than traditional automatic metrics. Furthermore, our analysis identifies specific hallucinations in generated summaries, including precedent citation errors and misrepresentations of case facts. These findings demonstrate the limitations of current automatic evaluation methods for legal summarization and highlight the critical role of human evaluation in assessing summary quality, particularly in complex, high-stakes domains. CaseSumm is available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/ChicagoHAI/CaseSumm

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

FAMMA: A Benchmark for Financial Domain Multilingual Multimodal Question Answering

In this paper, we introduce FAMMA, an open-source benchmark for \underline{f}in\underline{a}ncial \underline{m}ultilingual \underline{m}ultimodal question \underline{a}nswering (QA). Our benchmark aims to evaluate the abilities of large language models (LLMs) in answering complex reasoning questions that require advanced financial knowledge. The benchmark has two versions: FAMMA-Basic consists of 1,945 questions extracted from university textbooks and exams, along with human-annotated answers and rationales; FAMMA-LivePro consists of 103 novel questions created by human domain experts, with answers and rationales held out from the public for a contamination-free evaluation. These questions cover advanced knowledge of 8 major subfields in finance (e.g., corporate finance, derivatives, and portfolio management). Some are in Chinese or French, while a majority of them are in English. Each question has some non-text data such as charts, diagrams, or tables. Our experiments reveal that FAMMA poses a significant challenge on LLMs, including reasoning models such as GPT-o1 and DeepSeek-R1. Additionally, we curated 1,270 reasoning trajectories of DeepSeek-R1 on the FAMMA-Basic data, and fine-tuned a series of open-source Qwen models using this reasoning data. We found that training a model on these reasoning trajectories can significantly improve its performance on FAMMA-LivePro. We released our leaderboard, data, code, and trained models at https://famma-bench.github.io/famma/.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

MANGO: A Benchmark for Evaluating Mapping and Navigation Abilities of Large Language Models

Large language models such as ChatGPT and GPT-4 have recently achieved astonishing performance on a variety of natural language processing tasks. In this paper, we propose MANGO, a benchmark to evaluate their capabilities to perform text-based mapping and navigation. Our benchmark includes 53 mazes taken from a suite of textgames: each maze is paired with a walkthrough that visits every location but does not cover all possible paths. The task is question-answering: for each maze, a large language model reads the walkthrough and answers hundreds of mapping and navigation questions such as "How should you go to Attic from West of House?" and "Where are we if we go north and east from Cellar?". Although these questions are easy to humans, it turns out that even GPT-4, the best-to-date language model, performs poorly at answering them. Further, our experiments suggest that a strong mapping and navigation ability would benefit large language models in performing relevant downstream tasks, such as playing textgames. Our MANGO benchmark will facilitate future research on methods that improve the mapping and navigation capabilities of language models. We host our leaderboard, data, code, and evaluation program at https://mango.ttic.edu and https://github.com/oaklight/mango/.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

GMP-AR: Granularity Message Passing and Adaptive Reconciliation for Temporal Hierarchy Forecasting

Time series forecasts of different temporal granularity are widely used in real-world applications, e.g., sales prediction in days and weeks for making different inventory plans. However, these tasks are usually solved separately without ensuring coherence, which is crucial for aligning downstream decisions. Previous works mainly focus on ensuring coherence with some straightforward methods, e.g., aggregation from the forecasts of fine granularity to the coarse ones, and allocation from the coarse granularity to the fine ones. These methods merely take the temporal hierarchical structure to maintain coherence without improving the forecasting accuracy. In this paper, we propose a novel granularity message-passing mechanism (GMP) that leverages temporal hierarchy information to improve forecasting performance and also utilizes an adaptive reconciliation (AR) strategy to maintain coherence without performance loss. Furthermore, we introduce an optimization module to achieve task-based targets while adhering to more real-world constraints. Experiments on real-world datasets demonstrate that our framework (GMP-AR) achieves superior performances on temporal hierarchical forecasting tasks compared to state-of-the-art methods. In addition, our framework has been successfully applied to a real-world task of payment traffic management in Alipay by integrating with the task-based optimization module.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2024

Statler: State-Maintaining Language Models for Embodied Reasoning

There has been a significant research interest in employing large language models to empower intelligent robots with complex reasoning. Existing work focuses on harnessing their abilities to reason about the histories of their actions and observations. In this paper, we explore a new dimension in which large language models may benefit robotics planning. In particular, we propose Statler, a framework in which large language models are prompted to maintain an estimate of the world state, which are often unobservable, and track its transition as new actions are taken. Our framework then conditions each action on the estimate of the current world state. Despite being conceptually simple, our Statler framework significantly outperforms strong competing methods (e.g., Code-as-Policies) on several robot planning tasks. Additionally, it has the potential advantage of scaling up to more challenging long-horizon planning tasks.

cs.RO↗

arXiv2024

Transcrib3D: 3D Referring Expression Resolution through Large Language Models

If robots are to work effectively alongside people, they must be able to interpret natural language references to objects in their 3D environment. Understanding 3D referring expressions is challenging -- it requires the ability to both parse the 3D structure of the scene and correctly ground free-form language in the presence of distraction and clutter. We introduce Transcrib3D, an approach that brings together 3D detection methods and the emergent reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). Transcrib3D uses text as the unifying medium, which allows us to sidestep the need to learn shared representations connecting multi-modal inputs, which would require massive amounts of annotated 3D data. As a demonstration of its effectiveness, Transcrib3D achieves state-of-the-art results on 3D reference resolution benchmarks, with a great leap in performance from previous multi-modality baselines. To improve upon zero-shot performance and facilitate local deployment on edge computers and robots, we propose self-correction for fine-tuning that trains smaller models, resulting in performance close to that of large models. We show that our method enables a real robot to perform pick-and-place tasks given queries that contain challenging referring expressions. Project site is at https://ripl.github.io/Transcrib3D.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2024

WeaverBird: Empowering Financial Decision-Making with Large Language Model, Knowledge Base, and Search Engine

We present WeaverBird, an intelligent dialogue system designed specifically for the finance domain. Our system harnesses a large language model of GPT architecture that has been tuned using extensive corpora of finance-related text. As a result, our system possesses the capability to understand complex financial queries, such as "How should I manage my investments during inflation?", and provide informed responses. Furthermore, our system incorporates a local knowledge base and a search engine to retrieve relevant information. The final responses are conditioned on the search results and include proper citations to the sources, thus enjoying an enhanced credibility. Through a range of finance-related questions, we have demonstrated the superior performance of our system compared to other models. To experience our system firsthand, users can interact with our live demo at https://weaverbird.ttic.edu, as well as watch our 2-min video illustration at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yofgeqnlrMc.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2024

Hypothesis Generation with Large Language Models

Effective generation of novel hypotheses is instrumental to scientific progress. So far, researchers have been the main powerhouse behind hypothesis generation by painstaking data analysis and thinking (also known as the Eureka moment). In this paper, we examine the potential of large language models (LLMs) to generate hypotheses. We focus on hypothesis generation based on data (i.e., labeled examples). To enable LLMs to handle arbitrarily long contexts, we generate initial hypotheses from a small number of examples and then update them iteratively to improve the quality of hypotheses. Inspired by multi-armed bandits, we design a reward function to inform the exploitation-exploration tradeoff in the update process. Our algorithm is able to generate hypotheses that enable much better predictive performance than few-shot prompting in classification tasks, improving accuracy by 31.7% on a synthetic dataset and by 13.9%, 3.3% and, 24.9% on three real-world datasets. We also outperform supervised learning by 12.8% and 11.2% on two challenging real-world datasets. Furthermore, we find that the generated hypotheses not only corroborate human-verified theories but also uncover new insights for the tasks.

cs.AI↗

arXiv2024

EasyTPP: Towards Open Benchmarking Temporal Point Processes

Continuous-time event sequences play a vital role in real-world domains such as healthcare, finance, online shopping, social networks, and so on. To model such data, temporal point processes (TPPs) have emerged as the most natural and competitive models, making a significant impact in both academic and application communities. Despite the emergence of many powerful models in recent years, there hasn't been a central benchmark for these models and future research endeavors. This lack of standardization impedes researchers and practitioners from comparing methods and reproducing results, potentially slowing down progress in this field. In this paper, we present EasyTPP, the first central repository of research assets (e.g., data, models, evaluation programs, documentations) in the area of event sequence modeling. Our EasyTPP makes several unique contributions to this area: a unified interface of using existing datasets and adding new datasets; a wide range of evaluation programs that are easy to use and extend as well as facilitate reproducible research; implementations of popular neural TPPs, together with a rich library of modules by composing which one could quickly build complex models. All the data and implementation can be found at https://github.com/ant-research/EasyTemporalPointProcess. We will actively maintain this benchmark and welcome contributions from other researchers and practitioners. Our benchmark will help promote reproducible research in this field, thus accelerating research progress as well as making more significant real-world impacts.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2023

Explicit Planning Helps Language Models in Logical Reasoning

Language models have been shown to perform remarkably well on a wide range of natural language processing tasks. In this paper, we propose LEAP, a novel system that uses language models to perform multi-step logical reasoning and incorporates explicit planning into the inference procedure. Explicit planning enables the system to make more informed reasoning decisions at each step by looking ahead into their future effects. Moreover, we propose a training strategy that safeguards the planning process from being led astray by spurious features. Our full system significantly outperforms other competing methods on multiple standard datasets. When using small T5 models as its core selection and deduction components, our system performs competitively compared to GPT-3 despite having only about 1B parameters (i.e., 175 times smaller than GPT-3). When using GPT-3.5, it significantly outperforms chain-of-thought prompting on the challenging PrOntoQA dataset. We have conducted extensive empirical studies to demonstrate that explicit planning plays a crucial role in the system's performance.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2023

Language Models Can Improve Event Prediction by Few-Shot Abductive Reasoning

Large language models have shown astonishing performance on a wide range of reasoning tasks. In this paper, we investigate whether they could reason about real-world events and help improve the prediction performance of event sequence models. We design LAMP, a framework that integrates a large language model in event prediction. Particularly, the language model performs abductive reasoning to assist an event sequence model: the event model proposes predictions on future events given the past; instructed by a few expert-annotated demonstrations, the language model learns to suggest possible causes for each proposal; a search module finds out the previous events that match the causes; a scoring function learns to examine whether the retrieved events could actually cause the proposal. Through extensive experiments on several challenging real-world datasets, we demonstrate that our framework -- thanks to the reasoning capabilities of large language models -- could significantly outperform the state-of-the-art event sequence models.

cs.CL↗