arXiv subjects

Hongyuan Zha

Publications and source records attributed to Hongyuan Zha.

At least 145 records · Page 8Linked to original sources

arXiv2018

Learning Registered Point Processes from Idiosyncratic Observations

A parametric point process model is developed, with modeling based on the assumption that sequential observations often share latent phenomena, while also possessing idiosyncratic effects. An alternating optimization method is proposed to learn a "registered" point process that accounts for shared structure, as well as "warping" functions that characterize idiosyncratic aspects of each observed sequence. Under reasonable constraints, in each iteration we update the sample-specific warping functions by solving a set of constrained nonlinear programming problems in parallel, and update the model by maximum likelihood estimation. The justifiability, complexity and robustness of the proposed method are investigated in detail, and the influence of sequence stitching on the learning results is examined empirically. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world data demonstrate that the method yields explainable point process models, achieving encouraging results compared to state-of-the-art methods.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2018

Visually Explainable Recommendation

Images account for a significant part of user decisions in many application scenarios, such as product images in e-commerce, or user image posts in social networks. It is intuitive that user preferences on the visual patterns of image (e.g., hue, texture, color, etc) can be highly personalized, and this provides us with highly discriminative features to make personalized recommendations. Previous work that takes advantage of images for recommendation usually transforms the images into latent representation vectors, which are adopted by a recommendation component to assist personalized user/item profiling and recommendation. However, such vectors are hardly useful in terms of providing visual explanations to users about why a particular item is recommended, and thus weakens the explainability of recommendation systems. As a step towards explainable recommendation models, we propose visually explainable recommendation based on attentive neural networks to model the user attention on images, under the supervision of both implicit feedback and textual reviews. By this, we can not only provide recommendation results to the users, but also tell the users why an item is recommended by providing intuitive visual highlights in a personalized manner. Experimental results show that our models are not only able to improve the recommendation performance, but also can provide persuasive visual explanations for the users to take the recommendations.

cs.IR↗

arXiv2018

Decoupled Learning for Factorial Marked Temporal Point Processes

This paper introduces the factorial marked temporal point process model and presents efficient learning methods. In conventional (multi-dimensional) marked temporal point process models, event is often encoded by a single discrete variable i.e. a marker. In this paper, we describe the factorial marked point processes whereby time-stamped event is factored into multiple markers. Accordingly the size of the infectivity matrix modeling the effect between pairwise markers is in power order w.r.t. the number of the discrete marker space. We propose a decoupled learning method with two learning procedures: i) directly solving the model based on two techniques: Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers and Fast Iterative Shrinkage-Thresholding Algorithm; ii) involving a reformulation that transforms the original problem into a Logistic Regression model for more efficient learning. Moreover, a sparse group regularizer is added to identify the key profile features and event labels. Empirical results on real world datasets demonstrate the efficiency of our decoupled and reformulated method. The source code is available online.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2018

tau-FPL: Tolerance-Constrained Learning in Linear Time

Learning a classifier with control on the false-positive rate plays a critical role in many machine learning applications. Existing approaches either introduce prior knowledge dependent label cost or tune parameters based on traditional classifiers, which lack consistency in methodology because they do not strictly adhere to the false-positive rate constraint. In this paper, we propose a novel scoring-thresholding approach, tau-False Positive Learning (tau-FPL) to address this problem. We show the scoring problem which takes the false-positive rate tolerance into accounts can be efficiently solved in linear time, also an out-of-bootstrap thresholding method can transform the learned ranking function into a low false-positive classifier. Both theoretical analysis and experimental results show superior performance of the proposed tau-FPL over existing approaches.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2017

Hawkes Processes for Invasive Species Modeling and Management

The spread of invasive species to new areas threatens the stability of ecosystems and causes major economic losses in agriculture and forestry. We propose a novel approach to minimizing the spread of an invasive species given a limited intervention budget. We first model invasive species propagation using Hawkes processes, and then derive closed-form expressions for characterizing the effect of an intervention action on the invasion process. We use this to obtain an optimal intervention plan based on an integer programming formulation, and compare the optimal plan against several ecologically-motivated heuristic strategies used in practice. We present an empirical study of two variants of the invasive control problem: minimizing the final rate of invasions, and minimizing the number of invasions at the end of a given time horizon. Our results show that the optimized intervention achieves nearly the same level of control that would be attained by completely eradicating the species, with a 20% cost saving. Additionally, we design a heuristic intervention strategy based on a combination of the density and life stage of the invasive individuals, and find that it comes surprisingly close to the optimized strategy, suggesting that this could serve as a good rule of thumb in invasive species management.

q-bio.PE↗

arXiv2017

A Dirichlet Mixture Model of Hawkes Processes for Event Sequence Clustering

We propose an effective method to solve the event sequence clustering problems based on a novel Dirichlet mixture model of a special but significant type of point processes --- Hawkes process. In this model, each event sequence belonging to a cluster is generated via the same Hawkes process with specific parameters, and different clusters correspond to different Hawkes processes. The prior distribution of the Hawkes processes is controlled via a Dirichlet distribution. We learn the model via a maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) and propose an effective variational Bayesian inference algorithm. We specifically analyze the resulting EM-type algorithm in the context of inner-outer iterations and discuss several inner iteration allocation strategies. The identifiability of our model, the convergence of our learning method, and its sample complexity are analyzed in both theoretical and empirical ways, which demonstrate the superiority of our method to other competitors. The proposed method learns the number of clusters automatically and is robust to model misspecification. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world data show that our method can learn diverse triggering patterns hidden in asynchronous event sequences and achieve encouraging performance on clustering purity and consistency.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2017

THAP: A Matlab Toolkit for Learning with Hawkes Processes

As a powerful tool of asynchronous event sequence analysis, point processes have been studied for a long time and achieved numerous successes in different fields. Among various point process models, Hawkes process and its variants attract many researchers in statistics and computer science these years because they capture the self- and mutually-triggering patterns between different events in complicated sequences explicitly and quantitatively and are broadly applicable to many practical problems. In this paper, we describe an open-source toolkit implementing many learning algorithms and analysis tools for Hawkes process model and its variants. Our toolkit systematically summarizes recent state-of-the-art algorithms as well as most classic algorithms of Hawkes processes, which is beneficial for both academical education and research. Source code can be downloaded from https://github.com/HongtengXu/Hawkes-Process-Toolkit.

stat.ML↗

arXiv2017

Fake News Mitigation via Point Process Based Intervention

We propose the first multistage intervention framework that tackles fake news in social networks by combining reinforcement learning with a point process network activity model. The spread of fake news and mitigation events within the network is modeled by a multivariate Hawkes process with additional exogenous control terms. By choosing a feature representation of states, defining mitigation actions and constructing reward functions to measure the effectiveness of mitigation activities, we map the problem of fake news mitigation into the reinforcement learning framework. We develop a policy iteration method unique to the multivariate networked point process, with the goal of optimizing the actions for maximal total reward under budget constraints. Our method shows promising performance in real-time intervention experiments on a Twitter network to mitigate a surrogate fake news campaign, and outperforms alternatives on synthetic datasets.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2017

Learning Hawkes Processes from Short Doubly-Censored Event Sequences

Many real-world applications require robust algorithms to learn point processes based on a type of incomplete data --- the so-called short doubly-censored (SDC) event sequences. We study this critical problem of quantitative asynchronous event sequence analysis under the framework of Hawkes processes by leveraging the idea of data synthesis. Given SDC event sequences observed in a variety of time intervals, we propose a sampling-stitching data synthesis method --- sampling predecessors and successors for each SDC event sequence from potential candidates and stitching them together to synthesize long training sequences. The rationality and the feasibility of our method are discussed in terms of arguments based on likelihood. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world data demonstrate that the proposed data synthesis method improves learning results indeed for both time-invariant and time-varying Hawkes processes.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2017

Modeling The Intensity Function Of Point Process Via Recurrent Neural Networks

Event sequence, asynchronously generated with random timestamp, is ubiquitous among applications. The precise and arbitrary timestamp can carry important clues about the underlying dynamics, and has lent the event data fundamentally different from the time-series whereby series is indexed with fixed and equal time interval. One expressive mathematical tool for modeling event is point process. The intensity functions of many point processes involve two components: the background and the effect by the history. Due to its inherent spontaneousness, the background can be treated as a time series while the other need to handle the history events. In this paper, we model the background by a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) with its units aligned with time series indexes while the history effect is modeled by another RNN whose units are aligned with asynchronous events to capture the long-range dynamics. The whole model with event type and timestamp prediction output layers can be trained end-to-end. Our approach takes an RNN perspective to point process, and models its background and history effect. For utility, our method allows a black-box treatment for modeling the intensity which is often a pre-defined parametric form in point processes. Meanwhile end-to-end training opens the venue for reusing existing rich techniques in deep network for point process modeling. We apply our model to the predictive maintenance problem using a log dataset by more than 1000 ATMs from a global bank headquartered in North America.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2017

Wasserstein Learning of Deep Generative Point Process Models

Point processes are becoming very popular in modeling asynchronous sequential data due to their sound mathematical foundation and strength in modeling a variety of real-world phenomena. Currently, they are often characterized via intensity function which limits model's expressiveness due to unrealistic assumptions on its parametric form used in practice. Furthermore, they are learned via maximum likelihood approach which is prone to failure in multi-modal distributions of sequences. In this paper, we propose an intensity-free approach for point processes modeling that transforms nuisance processes to a target one. Furthermore, we train the model using a likelihood-free leveraging Wasserstein distance between point processes. Experiments on various synthetic and real-world data substantiate the superiority of the proposed point process model over conventional ones.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2017

Self-Paced Multi-Task Learning

In this paper, we propose a novel multi-task learning (MTL) framework, called Self-Paced Multi-Task Learning (SPMTL). Different from previous works treating all tasks and instances equally when training, SPMTL attempts to jointly learn the tasks by taking into consideration the complexities of both tasks and instances. This is inspired by the cognitive process of human brain that often learns from the easy to the hard. We construct a compact SPMTL formulation by proposing a new task-oriented regularizer that can jointly prioritize the tasks and the instances. Thus it can be interpreted as a self-paced learner for MTL. A simple yet effective algorithm is designed for optimizing the proposed objective function. An error bound for a simplified formulation is also analyzed theoretically. Experimental results on toy and real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, compared to the state-of-the-art methods.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2017

Joint Modeling of Event Sequence and Time Series with Attentional Twin Recurrent Neural Networks

A variety of real-world processes (over networks) produce sequences of data whose complex temporal dynamics need to be studied. More especially, the event timestamps can carry important information about the underlying network dynamics, which otherwise are not available from the time-series evenly sampled from continuous signals. Moreover, in most complex processes, event sequences and evenly-sampled times series data can interact with each other, which renders joint modeling of those two sources of data necessary. To tackle the above problems, in this paper, we utilize the rich framework of (temporal) point processes to model event data and timely update its intensity function by the synergic twin Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs). In the proposed architecture, the intensity function is synergistically modulated by one RNN with asynchronous events as input and another RNN with time series as input. Furthermore, to enhance the interpretability of the model, the attention mechanism for the neural point process is introduced. The whole model with event type and timestamp prediction output layers can be trained end-to-end and allows a black-box treatment for modeling the intensity. We substantiate the superiority of our model in synthetic data and three real-world benchmark datasets.

cs.LG↗

arXiv2017

Fractal Dimension Invariant Filtering and Its CNN-based Implementation

Fractal analysis has been widely used in computer vision, especially in texture image processing and texture analysis. The key concept of fractal-based image model is the fractal dimension, which is invariant to bi-Lipschitz transformation of image, and thus capable of representing intrinsic structural information of image robustly. However, the invariance of fractal dimension generally does not hold after filtering, which limits the application of fractal-based image model. In this paper, we propose a novel fractal dimension invariant filtering (FDIF) method, extending the invariance of fractal dimension to filtering operations. Utilizing the notion of local self-similarity, we first develop a local fractal model for images. By adding a nonlinear post-processing step behind anisotropic filter banks, we demonstrate that the proposed filtering method is capable of preserving the local invariance of the fractal dimension of image. Meanwhile, we show that the FDIF method can be re-instantiated approximately via a CNN-based architecture, where the convolution layer extracts anisotropic structure of image and the nonlinear layer enhances the structure via preserving local fractal dimension of image. The proposed filtering method provides us with a novel geometric interpretation of CNN-based image model. Focusing on a challenging image processing task --- detecting complicated curves from the texture-like images, the proposed method obtains superior results to the state-of-art approaches.

cs.CV↗

arXiv2017

Recurrent Poisson Factorization for Temporal Recommendation

Poisson factorization is a probabilistic model of users and items for recommendation systems, where the so-called implicit consumer data is modeled by a factorized Poisson distribution. There are many variants of Poisson factorization methods who show state-of-the-art performance on real-world recommendation tasks. However, most of them do not explicitly take into account the temporal behavior and the recurrent activities of users which is essential to recommend the right item to the right user at the right time. In this paper, we introduce Recurrent Poisson Factorization (RPF) framework that generalizes the classical PF methods by utilizing a Poisson process for modeling the implicit feedback. RPF treats time as a natural constituent of the model and brings to the table a rich family of time-sensitive factorization models. To elaborate, we instantiate several variants of RPF who are capable of handling dynamic user preferences and item specification (DRPF), modeling the social-aspect of product adoption (SRPF), and capturing the consumption heterogeneity among users and items (HRPF). We also develop a variational algorithm for approximate posterior inference that scales up to massive data sets. Furthermore, we demonstrate RPF's superior performance over many state-of-the-art methods on synthetic dataset, and large scale real-world datasets on music streaming logs, and user-item interactions in M-Commerce platforms.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2017

Scalable Influence Maximization for Multiple Products in Continuous-Time Diffusion Networks

A typical viral marketing model identifies influential users in a social network to maximize a single product adoption assuming unlimited user attention, campaign budgets, and time. In reality, multiple products need campaigns, users have limited attention, convincing users incurs costs, and advertisers have limited budgets and expect the adoptions to be maximized soon. Facing these user, monetary, and timing constraints, we formulate the problem as a submodular maximization task in a continuous-time diffusion model under the intersection of a matroid and multiple knapsack constraints. We propose a randomized algorithm estimating the user influence in a network ($|\mathcal{V}|$ nodes, $|\mathcal{E}|$ edges) to an accuracy of $ε$ with $n=\mathcal{O}(1/ε^2)$ randomizations and $\tilde{\mathcal{O}}(n|\mathcal{E}|+n|\mathcal{V}|)$ computations. By exploiting the influence estimation algorithm as a subroutine, we develop an adaptive threshold greedy algorithm achieving an approximation factor $k_a/(2+2 k)$ of the optimal when $k_a$ out of the $k$ knapsack constraints are active. Extensive experiments on networks of millions of nodes demonstrate that the proposed algorithms achieve the state-of-the-art in terms of effectiveness and scalability.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2017

Influence Prediction for Continuous-Time Information Propagation on Networks

We consider the problem of predicting the time evolution of influence, the expected number of activated nodes, given a set of initially active nodes on a propagation network. To address the significant computational challenges of this problem on large-scale heterogeneous networks, we establish a system of differential equations governing the dynamics of probability mass functions on the state graph where the nodes each lumps a number of activation states of the network, which can be considered as an analogue to the Fokker-Planck equation in continuous space. We provides several methods to estimate the system parameters which depend on the identities of the initially active nodes, network topology, and activation rates etc. The influence is then estimated by the solution of such a system of differential equations. This approach gives rise to a class of novel and scalable algorithms that work effectively for large-scale and dense networks. Numerical results are provided to show the very promising performance in terms of prediction accuracy and computational efficiency of this approach.

cs.SI↗

arXiv2016

Correlated Cascades: Compete or Cooperate

In real world social networks, there are multiple cascades which are rarely independent. They usually compete or cooperate with each other. Motivated by the reinforcement theory in sociology we leverage the fact that adoption of a user to any behavior is modeled by the aggregation of behaviors of its neighbors. We use a multidimensional marked Hawkes process to model users product adoption and consequently spread of cascades in social networks. The resulting inference problem is proved to be convex and is solved in parallel by using the barrier method. The advantage of the proposed model is twofold; it models correlated cascades and also learns the latent diffusion network. Experimental results on synthetic and two real datasets gathered from Twitter, URL shortening and music streaming services, illustrate the superior performance of the proposed model over the alternatives.

cs.SI↗