arXiv subjects

Howard M. Relles

Publications and source records attributed to Howard M. Relles.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2023

Transit Timing Variations in the three-planet system: TOI-270

We present ground and space-based photometric observations of TOI-270 (L231-32), a system of three transiting planets consisting of one super-Earth and two sub-Neptunes discovered by TESS around a bright (K-mag=8.25) M3V dwarf. The planets orbit near low-order mean-motion resonances (5:3 and 2:1), and are thus expected to exhibit large transit timing variations (TTVs). Following an extensive observing campaign using 8 different observatories between 2018 and 2020, we now report a clear detection of TTVs for planets c and d, with amplitudes of $\sim$10 minutes and a super-period of $\sim$3 years, as well as significantly refined estimates of the radii and mean orbital periods of all three planets. Dynamical modeling of the TTVs alone puts strong constraints on the mass ratio of planets c and d and on their eccentricities. When incorporating recently published constraints from radial velocity observations, we obtain masses of $M_{\mathrm{b}}=1.48\pm0.18\,M_\oplus$, $M_{c}=6.20\pm0.31\,M_\oplus$ and $M_{\mathrm{d}}=4.20\pm0.16\,M_\oplus$ for planets b, c and d, respectively. We also detect small, but significant eccentricities for all three planets : $e_\mathrm{b} =0.0167\pm0.0084$, $e_{c} =0.0044\pm0.0006$ and $e_{d} = 0.0066\pm0.0020$. Our findings imply an Earth-like rocky composition for the inner planet, and Earth-like cores with an additional He/H$_2$O atmosphere for the outer two. TOI-270 is now one of the best-constrained systems of small transiting planets, and it remains an excellent target for atmospheric characterization.

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arXiv2023

Characterization of a set of small planets with TESS and CHEOPS and an analysis of photometric performance

The radius valley carries implications for how the atmospheres of small planets form and evolve, but this feature is visible only with highly precise characterizations of many small planets. We present the characterization of nine planets and one planet candidate with both NASA TESS and ESA CHEOPS observations, which adds to the overall population of planets bordering the radius valley. While four of our planets - TOI 118 b, TOI 455 b, TOI 560 b, and TOI 562 b - have already been published, we vet and validate transit signals as planetary using follow-up observations for five new TESS planets, including TOI 198 b, TOI 244 b, TOI 262 b, TOI 444 b, and TOI 470 b. While a three times increase in primary mirror size should mean that one CHEOPS transit yields an equivalent model uncertainty in transit depth as about nine TESS transits in the case that the star is equally as bright in both bands, we find that our CHEOPS transits typically yield uncertainties equivalent to between two and 12 TESS transits, averaging 5.9 equivalent transits. Therefore, we find that while our fits to CHEOPS transits provide overall lower uncertainties on transit depth and better precision relative to fits to TESS transits, our uncertainties for these fits do not always match expected predictions given photon-limited noise. We find no correlations between number of equivalent transits and any physical parameters, indicating that this behavior is not strictly systematic, but rather might be due to other factors such as in-transit gaps during CHEOPS visits or nonhomogeneous detrending of CHEOPS light curves.

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arXiv2023

TOI 4201 b and TOI 5344 b: Discovery of Two Transiting Giant Planets Around M Dwarf Stars and Revised Parameters for Three Others

We present the discovery from the TESS mission of two giant planets transiting M dwarf stars: TOI 4201 b and TOI 5344 b. We also provide precise radial velocity measurements and updated system parameters for three other M dwarfs with transiting giant planets: TOI 519, TOI 3629 and TOI 3714. We measure planetary masses of 0.525 +- 0.064 M_J, 0.243 +- 0.020 M_J, 0.689 +- 0.030 M_J, 2.57 +- 0.15 M_J, and 0.412 +- 0.040 M_J for TOI 519 b, TOI 3629 b, TOI 3714 b, TOI 4201 b, and TOI 5344 b, respectively. The corresponding stellar masses are 0.372 +- 0.018 M_s, 0.635 +- 0.032 M_s, 0.522 +- 0.028 M_s, 0.625 +- 0.033 M_s and 0.612 +- 0.034 M_s. All five hosts have super-solar metallicities, providing further support for recent findings that, like for solar-type stars, close-in giant planets are preferentially found around metal-rich M dwarf host stars. Finally, we describe a procedure for accounting for systematic errors in stellar evolution models when those models are included directly in fitting a transiting planet system.

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arXiv2023

TOI-733 b: a planet in the small-planet radius valley orbiting a Sun-like star

We report the discovery of a hot ($T_{\rm eq}$ $\approx$ 1055 K) planet in the small planet radius valley transiting the Sun-like star TOI-733, as part of the KESPRINT follow-up program of TESS planets carried out with the HARPS spectrograph. TESS photometry from sectors 9 and 36 yields an orbital period of $P_{\rm orb}$ = $4.884765 _{ - 2.4e-5 } ^ { + 1.9e-5 }$ days and a radius of $R_{\mathrm{p}}$ = $1.992 _{ - 0.090 } ^ { + 0.085 }$ $R_{\oplus}$. Multi-dimensional Gaussian process modelling of the radial velocity measurements from HARPS and activity indicators, gives a semi-amplitude of $K$ = $2.23 \pm 0.26 $ m s$^{-1}$, translating into a planet mass of $M_{\mathrm{p}}$ = $5.72 _{ - 0.68 } ^ { + 0.70 }$ $M_{\oplus}$. These parameters imply that the planet is of moderate density ($ρ_\mathrm{p}$ = $3.98 _{ - 0.66 } ^ { + 0.77 }$ g cm$^{-3}$) and place it in the transition region between rocky and volatile-rich planets with H/He-dominated envelopes on the mass-radius diagram. Combining these with stellar parameters and abundances, we calculate planet interior and atmosphere models, which in turn suggest that TOI-733 b has a volatile-enriched, most likely secondary outer envelope, and may represent a highly irradiated ocean world - one of only a few such planets around G-type stars that are well-characterised.

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arXiv2022

Validation of 13 Hot and Potentially Terrestrial TESS Planets

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) will be able to probe the atmospheres and surface properties of hot, terrestrial planets via emission spectroscopy. We identify 18 potentially terrestrial planet candidates detected by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) that would make ideal targets for these observations. These planet candidates cover a broad range of planet radii ($R_{\rm p} \sim 0.6 - 2.0 R_\oplus$) and orbit stars of various magnitudes ($K_s = 5.78 - 10.78$, $V = 8.4 - 15.69$) and effective temperatures ($T_{\rm eff }\sim 3000 - 6000$ K). We use ground-based observations collected through the TESS Follow-up Observing Program (TFOP) and two vetting tools -- DAVE and TRICERATOPS -- to assess the reliabilities of these candidates as planets. We validate 13 planets: TOI-206 b, TOI-500 b, TOI-544 b, TOI-833 b, TOI-1075 b, TOI-1411 b, TOI-1442 b, TOI-1693 b, TOI-1860 b, TOI-2260 b, TOI-2411 b, TOI-2427 b, and TOI-2445 b. Seven of these planets (TOI-206 b, TOI-500 b, TOI-1075 b, TOI-1442 b, TOI-2260 b, TOI-2411 b, and TOI-2445 b) are ultra-short-period planets. TOI-1860 is the youngest ($133 \pm 26$ Myr) solar twin with a known planet to date. TOI-2260 is a young ($321 \pm 96$ Myr) G dwarf that is among the most metal-rich ([Fe/H] = $0.22 \pm 0.06$ dex) stars to host an ultra-short-period planet. With an estimated equilibrium temperature of $\sim 2600$ K, TOI-2260 b is also the fourth hottest known planet with $R_{\rm p} < 2 \, R_\oplus$.

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arXiv2022

A Possible Alignment Between the Orbits of Planetary Systems and their Visual Binary Companions

Astronomers do not have a complete picture of the effects of wide-binary companions (semimajor axes greater than 100 AU) on the formation and evolution of exoplanets. We investigate these effects using new data from Gaia EDR3 and the TESS mission to characterize wide-binary systems with transiting exoplanets. We identify a sample of 67 systems of transiting exoplanet candidates (with well-determined, edge-on orbital inclinations) that reside in wide visual binary systems. We derive limits on orbital parameters for the wide-binary systems and measure the minimum difference in orbital inclination between the binary and planet orbits. We determine that there is statistically significant difference in the inclination distribution of wide-binary systems with transiting planets compared to a control sample, with the probability that the two distributions are the same being 0.0037. This implies that there is an overabundance of planets in binary systems whose orbits are aligned with those of the binary. The overabundance of aligned systems appears to primarily have semimajor axes less than 700 AU. We investigate some effects that could cause the alignment and conclude that a torque caused by a misaligned binary companion on the protoplanetary disk is the most promising explanation.

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arXiv2021

Precise transit and radial-velocity characterization of a resonant pair: a warm Jupiter TOI-216c and eccentric warm Neptune TOI-216b

TOI-216 hosts a pair of warm, large exoplanets discovered by the TESS Mission. These planets were found to be in or near the 2:1 resonance, and both of them exhibit transit timing variations (TTVs). Precise characterization of the planets' masses and radii, orbital properties, and resonant behavior can test theories for the origins of planets orbiting close to their stars. Previous characterization of the system using the first six sectors of TESS data suffered from a degeneracy between planet mass and orbital eccentricity. Radial velocity measurements using HARPS, FEROS, and PFS break that degeneracy, and an expanded TTV baseline from TESS and an ongoing ground-based transit observing campaign increase the precision of the mass and eccentricity measurements. We determine that TOI-216c is a warm Jupiter, TOI-216b is an eccentric warm Neptune, and that they librate in the 2:1 resonance with a moderate libration amplitude of 60 +/- 2 degrees; small but significant free eccentricity of 0.0222 +0.0005/-0.0003 for TOI-216b; and small but significant mutual inclination of 1.2-3.9 degrees (95% confidence interval). The libration amplitude, free eccentricity, and mutual inclination imply a disturbance of TOI-216b before or after resonance capture, perhaps by an undetected third planet.

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arXiv2020

Vetting of 384 TESS Objects of Interest with TRICERATOPS and Statistical Validation of 12 Planet Candidates

We present TRICERATOPS, a new Bayesian tool that can be used to vet and validate TESS Objects of Interest (TOIs). We test the tool on 68 TOIs that have been previously confirmed as planets or rejected as astrophysical false positives. By looking in the false positive probability (FPP) -- nearby false positive probability (NFPP) plane, we define criteria that TOIs must meet to be classified as validated planets (FPP < 0.015 and NFPP < 10^-3), likely planets (FPP < 0.5 and NFPP < 10^-3), and likely nearby false positives (NFPP > 10^-1). We apply this procedure on 384 unclassified TOIs and statistically validate 12, classify 125 as likely planets, and classify 52 as likely nearby false positives. Of the 12 statistically validated planets, 9 are newly validated. TRICERATOPS is currently the only TESS vetting and validation tool that models transits from nearby contaminant stars in addition to the target star. We therefore encourage use of this tool to prioritize follow-up observations that confirm bona fide planets and identify false positives originating from nearby stars.

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arXiv2020

A super-Earth and two sub-Neptunes transiting the nearby and quiet M dwarf TOI-270

We report the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite discovery of three small planets transiting one of the nearest and brightest M dwarf hosts to date, TOI-270 (TIC 259377017; K-mag 8.3; 22.5 parsec). The M3V-type star is transited by the super-Earth-sized TOI-270 b (1.247+0.089-0.083 R_earth) and the sub-Neptune-sized exoplanets TOI-270 c (2.42+-0.13 R_earth) and TOI-270 d (2.13+-0.12 R_earth). The planets orbit close to a mean-motion resonant chain, with periods (3.36, 5.66, and 11.38 days) near ratios of small integers (5:3 and 2:1). TOI-270 is a prime target for future studies since: 1) its near-resonance allows detecting transit timing variations for precise mass measurements and dynamical studies; 2) its brightness enables independent radial velocity mass measurements; 3) the outer planets are ideal for atmospheric characterisation via transmission spectroscopy; and 4) the quiet star enables future searches for habitable zone planets. Altogether, very few systems with small, temperate exoplanets are as suitable for such complementary and detailed characterisation as TOI-270.

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arXiv2020

TOI-503: The first known brown dwarf-Am star binary from the TESS mission

We report the discovery of an intermediate-mass transiting brown dwarf, TOI-503b, from the TESS mission. TOI-503b is the first brown dwarf discovered by TESS and orbits a metallic-line A-type star with a period of $P=3.6772 \pm 0.0001$ days. The light curve from TESS indicates that TOI-503b transits its host star in a grazing manner, which limits the precision with which we measure the brown dwarf's radius ($R_b = 1.34^{+0.26}_{-0.15} R_J$). We obtained high-resolution spectroscopic observations with the FIES, Ondřejov, PARAS, Tautenburg, and TRES spectrographs and measured the mass of TOI-503b to be $M_b = 53.7 \pm 1.2 M_J$. The host star has a mass of $M_\star = 1.80 \pm 0.06 M_\odot$, a radius of $R_\star = 1.70 \pm 0.05 R_\odot$, an effective temperature of $T_{\rm eff} = 7650 \pm 160$K, and a relatively high metallicity of $0.61\pm 0.07$ dex. We used stellar isochrones to derive the age of the system to be $\sim$180 Myr, which places its age between that of RIK 72b (a $\sim$10 Myr old brown dwarf in the Upper Scorpius stellar association) and AD 3116b (a $\sim$600 Myr old brown dwarf in the Praesepe cluster). We argue that this brown dwarf formed in-situ, based on the young age of the system and the long circularization timescale for this brown dwarf around its host star. TOI-503b joins a growing number of known short-period, intermediate-mass brown dwarfs orbiting main sequence stars, and is the second such brown dwarf known to transit an A star, after HATS-70b. With the growth in the population in this regime, the driest region in the brown dwarf desert ($35-55 M_J \sin{i}$) is reforesting and its mass range shrinking.

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arXiv2019

KELT-25b and KELT-26b: A Hot Jupiter and a Substellar Companion Transiting Young A-stars Observed by TESS

We present the discoveries of KELT-25b (TIC 65412605, TOI-626.01) and KELT-26b (TIC 160708862, TOI-1337.01), two transiting companions orbiting relatively bright, early A-stars. The transit signals were initially detected by the KELT survey, and subsequently confirmed by \textit{TESS} photometry. KELT-25b is on a 4.40-day orbit around the V = 9.66 star CD-24 5016 ($T_{\rm eff} = 8280^{+440}_{-180}$ K, $M_{\star}$ = $2.18^{+0.12}_{-0.11}$ $M_{\odot}$), while KELT-26b is on a 3.34-day orbit around the V = 9.95 star HD 134004 ($T_{\rm eff}$ =$8640^{+500}_{-240}$ K, $M_{\star}$ = $1.93^{+0.14}_{-0.16}$ $M_{\odot}$), which is likely an Am star. We have confirmed the sub-stellar nature of both companions through detailed characterization of each system using ground-based and \textit{TESS} photometry, radial velocity measurements, Doppler Tomography, and high-resolution imaging. For KELT-25, we determine a companion radius of $R_{\rm P}$ = $1.64^{+0.039}_{-0.043}$ $R_{\rm J}$, and a 3-sigma upper limit on the companion's mass of $\sim64~M_{\rm J}$. For KELT-26b, we infer a planetary mass and radius of $M_{\rm P}$ = $1.41^{+0.43}_{-0.51}$ $M_{\rm J}$ and $R_{\rm P}$ = $1.940^{+0.060}_{-0.058}$ $R_{\rm J}$. From Doppler Tomographic observations, we find KELT-26b to reside in a highly misaligned orbit. This conclusion is weakly corroborated by a subtle asymmetry in the transit light curve from the \textit{TESS} data. KELT-25b appears to be in a well-aligned, prograde orbit, and the system is likely a member of a cluster or moving group.

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arXiv2019

First radial velocity results from the MINiature Exoplanet Radial Velocity Array (MINERVA)

The MINiature Exoplanet Radial Velocity Array (MINERVA) is a dedicated observatory of four 0.7m robotic telescopes fiber-fed to a KiwiSpec spectrograph. The MINERVA mission is to discover super-Earths in the habitable zones of nearby stars. This can be accomplished with MINERVA's unique combination of high precision and high cadence over long time periods. In this work, we detail changes to the MINERVA facility that have occurred since our previous paper. We then describe MINERVA's robotic control software, the process by which we perform 1D spectral extraction, and our forward modeling Doppler pipeline. In the process of improving our forward modeling procedure, we found that our spectrograph's intrinsic instrumental profile is stable for at least nine months. Because of that, we characterized our instrumental profile with a time-independent, cubic spline function based on the profile in the cross dispersion direction, with which we achieved a radial velocity precision similar to using a conventional "sum-of-Gaussians" instrumental profile: 1.8 m s$^{-1}$ over 1.5 months on the RV standard star HD 122064. Therefore, we conclude that the instrumental profile need not be perfectly accurate as long as it is stable. In addition, we observed 51 Peg and our results are consistent with the literature, confirming our spectrograph and Doppler pipeline are producing accurate and precise radial velocities.

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arXiv2019

KELT-24b: A 5M$_{\rm J}$ Planet on a 5.6 day Well-Aligned Orbit around the Young V=8.3 F-star HD 93148

We present the discovery of KELT-24 b, a massive hot Jupiter orbiting a bright (V=8.3 mag, K=7.2 mag) young F-star with a period of 5.6 days. The host star, KELT-24 (HD 93148), has a $T_{\rm eff}$ =$6509^{+50}_{-49}$ K, a mass of $M_{*}$ = $1.460^{+0.055}_{-0.059}$ $M_{\odot}$, radius of $R_{*}$ = $1.506\pm0.022$ $R_{\odot}$, and an age of $0.78^{+0.61}_{-0.42}$ Gyr. Its planetary companion (KELT-24 b) has a radius of $R_{\rm P}$ = $1.272\pm0.021$ $R_{\rm J}$, a mass of $M_{\rm P}$ = $5.18^{+0.21}_{-0.22}$ $M_{\rm J}$, and from Doppler tomographic observations, we find that the planet's orbit is well-aligned to its host star's projected spin axis ($λ$ = $2.6^{+5.1}_{-3.6}$). The young age estimated for KELT-24 suggests that it only recently started to evolve from the zero-age main sequence. KELT-24 is the brightest star known to host a transiting giant planet with a period between 5 and 10 days. Although the circularization timescale is much longer than the age of the system, we do not detect a large eccentricity or significant misalignment that is expected from dynamical migration. The brightness of its host star and its moderate surface gravity make KELT-24b an intriguing target for detailed atmospheric characterization through spectroscopic emission measurements since it would bridge the current literature results that have primarily focused on lower mass hot Jupiters and a few brown dwarfs.

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arXiv2019

An Eccentric Massive Jupiter Orbiting a Sub-Giant on a 9.5 Day Period Discovered in the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite Full Frame Images

We report the discovery of TOI-172 b from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) mission, a massive hot Jupiter transiting a slightly evolved G-star with a 9.48-day orbital period. This is the first planet to be confirmed from analysis of only the TESS full frame images, because the host star was not chosen as a two minute cadence target. From a global analysis of the TESS photometry and follow-up observations carried out by the TESS Follow-up Observing Program Working Group, TOI-172 (TIC 29857954) is a slightly evolved star with an effective temperature of $T_{\rm eff}$ =$5645\pm50$ K, a mass of $M_{\star}$ = $1.128^{+0.065}_{-0.061}$ $M_{\odot}$, radius of $R_{\star}$ = $1.777^{+0.047}_{-0.044}$ $R_{\odot}$, a surface gravity of $\log$ $g_{\star}$ = $3.993^{+0.027}_{-0.028}$, and an age of $7.4^{+1.6}_{-1.5}$ Gyr. Its planetary companion (TOI-172 b) has a radius of $R_{\rm P}$ = $0.965^{+0.032}_{-0.029}$ $R_{\rm J}$, a mass of $M_{\rm P}$ = $5.42^{+0.22}_{-0.20}$ $M_{\rm J}$, and is on an eccentric orbit ($e = 0.3806^{+0.0093}_{-0.0090}$). TOI-172 b is one of the few known massive giant planets on a highly eccentric short-period orbit. Future study of the atmosphere of this planet and its system architecture offer opportunities to understand the formation and evolution of similar systems.

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arXiv2019

TOI-150b and TOI-163b: two transiting hot Jupiters, one eccentric and one inflated, revealed by TESS near and at the edge of the JWST CVZ

We present the discovery of TYC9191-519-1b (TOI-150b, TIC 271893367) and HD271181b (TOI-163b, TIC 179317684), two hot Jupiters initially detected using 30-minute cadence Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite TESS photometry from Sector 1 and thoroughly characterized through follow-up photometry (CHAT, Hazelwood, LCO/CTIO, El Sauce, TRAPPIST-S), high-resolution spectroscopy (FEROS, CORALIE) and speckle imaging (Gemini/DSSI), confirming the planetary nature of the two signals. A simultaneous joint fit of photometry and radial velocity using a new fitting package juliet reveals that TOI-150b is a $1.254\pm0.016\ R_J$, massive ($2.61^{+0.19}_{-0.12}\ M_J$) hot Jupiter in a $5.857$-day orbit, while TOI-163b is an inflated ($R_P$ = $1.478^{+0.022}_{-0.029} R_J$, $M_P$ = $1.219\pm0.11 M_J$) hot Jupiter on a $P$ = $4.231$-day orbit; both planets orbit F-type stars. A particularly interesting result is that TOI-150b shows an eccentric orbit ($e=0.262^{+0.045}_{-0.037}$), which is quite uncommon among hot Jupiters. We estimate that this is consistent, however, with the circularization timescale which is slightly larger than the age of the system. These two hot Jupiters are both prime candidates for further characterization --- in particular, both are excellent candidates for determining spin-orbit alignments via the Rossiter-McLaughlin (RM) effect and for characterizing atmospheric thermal structures using secondary eclipse observations considering they are both located closely to the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) Continuous Viewing Zone (CVZ).

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arXiv2019

KELT-23Ab: A Hot Jupiter Transiting a Near-Solar Twin Close to the TESS and JWST Continuous Viewing Zones

We announce the discovery of KELT-23Ab, a hot Jupiter transiting the relatively bright ($V=10.3$) star BD+66 911 (TYC 4187-996-1), and characterize the system using follow-up photometry and spectroscopy. A global fit to the system yields host-star properties of $T_{eff}=5900\pm49 K$, $M_*=0.945^{+0.060}_{-0.054} M_{\odot}$, $R_*=0.995\pm0.015 R_{\odot}$, $L_*=1.082^{+0.051}_{-0.048} L_{\odot}$, log$g_{*}=4.418^{+0.026}_{-0.025}$ (cgs), and $\left[{\rm Fe}/{\rm H}\right]=-0.105\pm0.077$. KELT-23Ab is a hot Jupiter with mass $M_P=0.938^{+0.045}_{-0.042} M_{\rm J}$, radius $R_P=1.322\pm0.025 R_{\rm J}$, and density $ρ_P=0.504^{+0.038}_{-0.035}$ g cm$^{-3}$. Intense insolation flux from the star has likely caused KELT-23Ab to become inflated. The time of inferior conjunction is $T_0=2458149.40776\pm0.00091~\rm {BJD_{TDB}}$ and the orbital period is $P=2.255353^{+0.000031}_{-0.000030}$ days. There is strong evidence that KELT-23A is a member of a long-period binary star system with a less luminous companion, and due to tidal interactions, the planet is likely to spiral into its host within roughly a Gyr. This system has one of the highest positive ecliptic latitudes of all transiting planet hosts known to date, placing it near the Transiting Planet Survey Satellite and James Webb Space Telescope continuous viewing zones. Thus we expect it to be an excellent candidate for long-term monitoring and follow-up with these facilities.

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arXiv2019

TOI-216b and TOI-216c: Two warm, large exoplanets in or slightly wide of the 2:1 orbital resonance

Warm, large exoplanets with 10-100 day orbital periods pose a major challenge to our understanding of how planetary systems form and evolve. Although high eccentricity tidal migration has been invoked to explain their proximity to their host stars, a handful reside in or near orbital resonance with nearby planets, suggesting a gentler history of in situ formation or disk migration. Here we confirm and characterize a pair of warm, large exoplanets discovered by the TESS Mission orbiting K-dwarf TOI-216. Our analysis includes additional transits and transit exclusion windows observed via ground-based follow-up. We find two families of solutions, one corresponding to a sub-Saturn-mass planet accompanied by a Neptune-mass planet and the other to a Jupiter in resonance with a sub-Saturn-mass planet. We prefer the second solution based on the orbital period ratio, the planet radii, the lower free eccentricities, and libration of the 2:1 resonant argument, but cannot rule out the first. The free eccentricities and mutual inclination are compatible with stirring by other, undetected planets in the system, particularly for the second solution. We discuss prospects for better constraints on the planets' properties and orbits through follow-up, including transits observed from the ground.

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arXiv2019

Visual Analysis and Demographics of Kepler Transit Timing Variations

We visually analyzed the Transit Timing Variation (TTV) data of 5930 Kepler Objects of Interest (KOIs) homogeneously. Using data from Rowe et al. 2014 and Holczer et al. 2016, we investigated TTVs for KOIs in Kepler's Data Release 24 catalog. Using TTV plots, periodograms, and folded quadratic sinusoid fits, we visually rated each KOI's TTV data in five categories. Our ratings emphasize the hundreds of planets with TTVs that are weaker than the 200 or so that have been studied in detail. Our findings are consistent with statistical methods for identifying strong TTVs (Holczer et al. 2016), though we find some additional systems worth investigation. Between about 3-50 days and 1.3-6 Earth radii, the frequency of strong TTVs increases with period and radius. As expected, strong TTVs are very common when period ratios are near a resonance, but there is not a one-to-one correspondence. The observed planet-by-planet frequency of strong TTVs is only somewhat lower in systems with 1-2 known planets (7 +/- 1 percent) than in systems with 3+ known planets (11 +/- 2 percent). We attribute TTVs to known planets in multi-transiting systems, but find about 30 cases where the perturbing planet is unknown. Our conclusions are valuable as an ensemble for learning about planetary system architectures and individually as stepping stones towards more detailed mass-radius constraints. We also discuss Data Release 25 TTVs, about 100 KOIs with Transit Duration and/or Depth Variations, and that the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) will likely find roughly 10 planets with strong TTVs.

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