arXiv subjects

Hugh R. A. Jones

Publications and source records attributed to Hugh R. A. Jones.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

arXiv2017

Color difference makes a difference: four planet candidates around tau Ceti

The removal of noise typically correlated in time and wavelength is one of the main challenges for using the radial velocity method to detect Earth analogues. We analyze radial velocity data of tau Ceti and find robust evidence for wavelength dependent noise. We find this noise can be modeled by a combination of moving average models and "differential radial velocities". We apply this noise model to various radial velocity data sets for tau Ceti, and find four periodic signals at 20.0, 49.3, 160 and 642 d which we interpret as planets. We identify two new signals with orbital periods of 20.0 and 49.3 d while the other two previously suspected signals around 160 and 600 d are quantified to a higher precision. The 20.0 d candidate is independently detected in KECK data. All planets detected in this work have minimum masses less than 4$M_\oplus$ with the two long period ones located around the inner and outer edges of the habitable zone, respectively. We find that the instrumental noise gives rise to a precision limit of the HARPS around 0.2 m/s. We also find correlation between the HARPS data and the central moments of the spectral line profile at around 0.5 m/s level, although these central moments may contain both noise and signals. The signals detected in this work have semi-amplitudes as low as 0.3 m/s, demonstrating the ability of the radial velocity technique to detect relatively weak signals.

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arXiv2017

Evidence for at least three planet candidates orbiting HD20794

We explore the feasibility of detecting Earth analogs around Sun-like stars using the radial velocity method by investigating one of the largest radial velocities datasets for the one of the most stable radial-velocity stars HD20794. We proceed by disentangling the Keplerian signals from correlated noise and activity-induced variability. We diagnose the noise using the differences between radial velocities measured at different wavelength ranges, so-called "differential radial velocities". We apply this method to the radial velocities measured by HARPS, and identify four signals at 18, 89, 147 and 330 d. The two signals at periods of 18 and 89 d are previously reported and are better quantified in this work. The signal at a period of about 147 d is reported for the first time, and corresponds to a super-Earth with a minimum mass of 4.59 Earth mass located 0.51 AU from HD20794. We also find a significant signal at a period of about 330 d corresponding to a super-Earth or Neptune in the habitable zone. Since this signal is close to the annual sampling period and significant periodogram power in some noise proxies are found close to this signal, further observations and analyses are required to confirm it. The analyses of the eccentricity and consistency of signals provide weak evidence for the existence of the previously reported 43 d signal and a new signal at a period of about 11.9 d with a semi amplitude of 0.4 m/s. We find that the detection of a number of signals with radial velocity variations around 0.5\,m/s likely caused by low mass planet candidates demonstrates the important role of noise modeling in searching for Earth analogs.

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arXiv2017

Agatha: disentangling periodic signals from correlated noise in a periodogram framework

Periodograms are used as a key significance assessment and visualisation tool to display the significant periodicities in unevenly sampled time series. We introduce a framework of periodograms, called "Agatha", to disentangle periodic signals from correlated noise and to solve the 2-dimensional model selection problem: signal dimension and noise model dimension. These periodograms are calculated by applying likelihood maximization and marginalization and combined in a self-consistent way. We compare Agatha with other periodograms for the detection of Keplerian signals in synthetic radial velocity data produced for the Radial Velocity Challenge as well as in radial velocity datasets of several Sun-like stars. In our tests we find Agatha is able to recover signals to the adopted detection limit of the radial velocity challenge. Applied to real radial velocity, we use Agatha to confirm previous analysis of CoRoT-7 and to find two new planet candidates with minimum masses of 15.1 $M_\oplus$ and 7.08 $M_\oplus$ orbiting HD177565 and HD41248, with periods of 44.5 d and 13.4 d, respectively. We find that Agatha outperforms other periodograms in terms of removing correlated noise and assessing the significances of signals with more robust metrics. Moreover, it can be used to select the optimal noise model and to test the consistency of signals in time. Agatha is intended to be flexible enough to be applied to time series analyses in other astronomical and scientific disciplines. Agatha is available at http://www.agatha.herts.ac.uk.

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arXiv2017

The metal rich abundance pattern - spectroscopic properties and abundances for 107 main-sequence stars

We report results from the high resolution spectral analysis of the 107 metal rich (mostly [Fe/H]$\ge$7.67 dex) target stars from the Calan-Hertfordshire Extrasolar Planet Search program observed with HARPS. Using our procedure of finding the best fit to the absorption line profiles in the observed spectra, we measure the abundances of Na, Mg, Al, Si, Ca, Ti, Cr, Mn, Fe, Ni, Cu, and Zn, and we then compare them with known results from different authors. Most of our abundances agree with these works at the level of $\pm$0.05 dex or better for the stars we have in common. However, we do find systematic differences that make direct inferences difficult. Our analysis suggests that the selection of line lists and atomic line data along with the adopted continuum level influence these differences the most. At the same time, we confirm the positive trends of abundances versus metallicity for Na, Mn, Ni, and to a lesser degree, Al. A slight negative trend is observed for Ca, whereas Si and Cr tend to follow iron. Our analysis allows us to determine the positively skewed normal distribution of projected rotational velocities with a maximum peaking at 3 km s$^{-1}$. Finally, we obtained a Gaussian distribution of microturbulent velocities that has a maximum at 1.2 km s$^{-1}$ and a full width at half maximum $Δv_{1/2}=$0.35 km s$^{-1}$, indicating that metal rich dwarfs and subgiants in our sample have a very restricted range in microturbulent velocity.

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arXiv2016

A terrestrial planet candidate in a temperate orbit around Proxima Centauri

At a distance of 1.295 parsecs, the red-dwarf Proxima Centauri ($α$ Centauri C, GL 551, HIP 70890, or simply Proxima) is the Sun's closest stellar neighbor and one of the best studied low-mass stars. It has an effective temperature of only $\sim$ 3050 K, a luminosity of $\sim$0.1 per cent solar, a measured radius of 0.14 R$_\odot$ and a mass of about 12 per cent the mass of the Sun. Although Proxima is considered a moderately active star, its rotation period is $\sim$ 83 days, and its quiescent activity levels and X-ray luminosity are comparable to the Sun's. New observations reveal the presence of a small planet orbiting Proxima with a minimum mass of 1.3~Earth masses and an orbital period of $\sim$11.2 days. Its orbital semi-major axis is $\sim0.05$ AU, with an equilibrium temperature in the range where water could be liquid on its surface.

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arXiv2016

Calculations of periodicity from Hα profiles of Proxima Centauri

We investigate retrieval of the stellar rotation signal for Proxima Centauri. We make use of high-resolution spectra taken with uves and harps of Proxima Centauri over a 13-year period as well as photometric observations of Proxima Centauri from asas and hst. We measure the Hα equivalent width and Hα index, skewness and kurtosis and introduce a method that investigates the symmetry of the line, the Peak Ratio, which appears to return better results than the other measurements. Our investigations return a most significant period of 82.6 $\pm$ 0.1 days, confirming earlier photometric results and ruling out a more recent result of 116.6 days which we conclude to be an alias induced by the specific harps observation times. We conclude that whilst spectroscopic Hα measurements can be used for period recovery, in the case of Proxima Centauri the available photometric measurements are more reliable. We make 2D models of Proxima Centauri to generate simulated Hα, finding that reasonable distributions of plage and chromospheric features are able to reproduce the equivalent width variations in observed data and recover the rotation period, including after the addition of simulated noise and flares. However the 2D models used fail to generate the observed variety of line shapes measured by the peak ratio. We conclude that only 3D models which incorporate vertical motions in the chromosphere can achieve this.

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arXiv2016

Evidence for Reflected Light from the Most Eccentric Exoplanet Known

Planets in highly eccentric orbits form a class of objects not seen within our Solar System. The most extreme case known amongst these objects is the planet orbiting HD~20782, with an orbital period of 597~days and an eccentricity of 0.96. Here we present new data and analysis for this system as part of the Transit Ephemeris Refinement and Monitoring Survey (TERMS). We obtained CHIRON spectra to perform an independent estimation of the fundamental stellar parameters. New radial velocities from AAT and PARAS observations during periastron passage greatly improve our knowledge of the eccentric nature of the orbit. The combined analysis of our Keplerian orbital and Hipparcos astrometry show that the inclination of the planetary orbit is $> 1.22\degr$, ruling out stellar masses for the companion. Our long-term robotic photometry show that the star is extremely stable over long timescales. Photometric monitoring of the star during predicted transit and periastron times using MOST rule out a transit of the planet and reveal evidence of phase variations during periastron. These possible photometric phase variations may be caused by reflected light from the planet's atmosphere and the dramatic change in star--planet separation surrounding the periastron passage.

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arXiv2015

The Observed Distribution of Spectroscopic Binaries from the Anglo-Australian Planet Search

We report the detection of sixteen binary systems from the Anglo-Australian Planet Search. Solutions to the radial velocity data indicate that the stars have companions orbiting with a wide range of masses, eccentricities and periods. Three of the systems potentially contain brown-dwarf companions while another two have eccentricities that place them in the extreme upper tail of the eccentricity distribution for binaries with periods less than 1000 d. For periods up to 12 years, the distribution of our stellar companion masses is fairly flat, mirroring that seen in other radial velocity surveys, and contrasts sharply with the current distribution of candidate planetary masses, which rises strongly below 10MJ. When looking at a larger sample of binaries that have FGK star primaries as a function of the primary star metallicity, we find that the distribution maintains a binary fraction of ~43$\pm$4% between -1.0 to +0.6 dex in metallicity. This is in stark contrast to the giant exoplanet distribution. This result is in good agreement with binary formation models that invoke fragmentation of a collapsing giant molecular cloud, suggesting this is the dominant formation mechanism for close binaries and not fragmentation of the primary star's remnant proto-planetary disk.

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arXiv2015

No evidence for activity correlations in the radial velocities of Kapteyn's star

Stellar activity may induce Doppler variability at the level of a few m/s which can then be confused by the Doppler signal of an exoplanet orbiting the star. To first order, linear correlations between radial velocity measurements and activity indices have been proposed to account for any such correlation. The likely presence of two super-Earths orbiting Kapteyn's star was reported in Anglada et al. (2014, MNRAS 443L, 89A), but this claim was recently challenged by Robertson et al. (2015, ApJ 805L, 22R) arguing evidence of a rotation period (143 days) at three times the orbital period of one of the proposed planets (Kapteyn's b, P=48.6 days), and the existence of strong linear correlations between its Doppler signal and activity data. By re-analyzing the data using global optimization methods and model comparison, we show that such claim is incorrect given that; 1) the choice of a rotation period at 143 days is unjustified, and 2) the presence of linear correlations is not supported by the data. We conclude that the radial velocity signals of Kapteyn's star remain more simply explained by the presence of two super-Earth candidates orbiting it. We also advocate for the use of global optimization procedures and objective arguments, instead of claims lacking of a minimal statistical support.

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arXiv2015

Benchmarking the power of amateur observatories for TTV exoplanets detection

We perform an analysis of ~80000 photometric measurements for the following 10 stars hosting transiting planets: WASP-2, -4, -5, -52, Kelt-1, CoRoT-2, XO-2, TrES-1, HD 189733, GJ 436. Our analysis includes mainly transit lightcurves from the Exoplanet Transit Database, public photometry from the literature, and some proprietary photometry privately supplied by other authors. Half of these lightcurves were obtained by amateurs. From this photometry we derive 306 transit timing measurements, as well as improved planetary transit parameters. Additionally, for 6 of these 10 stars we present a set of radial velocity measurements obtained from the spectra stored in the HARPS, HARPS-N, and SOPHIE archives using the HARPS-TERRA pipeline. Our analysis of these TTV and RV data did not reveal significant hints of additional orbiting bodies in almost all of the cases. In the WASP-4 case, we found hints of marginally significant TTV signals having amplitude 10-20 sec, although their parameters are model-dependent and uncertain, while radial velocities did not reveal statistically significant Doppler signals.

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arXiv2014

Two planets around Kapteyn's star : a cold and a temperate super-Earth orbiting the nearest halo red-dwarf

Exoplanets of a few Earth masses can be now detected around nearby low-mass stars using Doppler spectroscopy. In this paper, we investigate the radial velocity variations of Kapteyn's star, which is both a sub-dwarf M-star and the nearest halo object to the Sun. The observations comprise archival and new HARPS, HIRES and PFS Doppler measurements. Two Doppler signals are detected at periods of 48 and 120 days using likelihood periodograms and a Bayesian analysis of the data. Using the same techniques, the activity indicies and archival ASAS-3 photometry show evidence for low-level activity periodicities of the order of several hundred days. However, there are no significant correlations with the radial velocity variations on the same time-scales. The inclusion of planetary Keplerian signals in the model results in levels of correlated and excess white noise that are remarkably low compared to younger G, K and M dwarfs. We conclude that Kapteyn's star is most probably orbited by two super-Earth mass planets, one of which is orbiting in its circumstellar habitable zone, becoming the oldest potentially habitable planet known to date. The presence and long-term survival of a planetary system seems a remarkable feat given the peculiar origin and kinematic history of Kapteyn's star. The detection of super-Earth mass planets around halo stars provides important insights into planet-formation processes in the early days of the Milky Way.

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arXiv2014

Filtering out activity-related variations from radial velocities in a search for low-mass planets

Variations related to stellar activity and correlated noise can prevent the detections of low-amplitude signals in radial velocity data if not accounted for. This can be seen as the greatest obstacle in detecting Earth-like planets orbiting nearby stars with Doppler spectroscopy regardless of developments in instrumentation and rapidly accumulating amounts of data. We use a statistical model that is not sensitive to aperiodic and/or quasiperiodic variability of stellar origin. We demonstrate the performance of our model by re-analysing the radial velocities of the moderately active star CoRoT-7 ($\log R_{\rm HK} = -4.61$) with a transiting planet whose Doppler signal has proven rather difficult to detect. We find that the signal of the transiting planet can be robustly detected together with signals of two other planet candidates. Our results suggest that rotation periods of moderately active stars can be filtered out of the radial velocity noise, which enables the detections of low-mass planets orbiting such stars.

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arXiv2014

WISEP J061135.13-041024.0AB: A J-Band Flux Reversal Binary at the L/T Transition

We present Keck II laser guide star adaptive optics observations of the brown dwarf WISEP J061135.13-041024.0 showing it is a binary with a component separation of 0.4". This system is one of the six known resolved binaries in which the magnitude differences between the components show a reversal in sign between the Y/J band and the H/K bands. Deconvolution of the composite spectrum results in a best fit binary solution with L9 and T1.5 components. We also present a preliminary parallax placing the system at a distance of 21.2+/-1.3 pc. Using the distance and resolved magnitudes we are able to place WISEP J061135.13-041024.0AB on a color-absolute magnitude diagram, showing that this system contributes to the well-known "J-band bump" and the components' properties appear similar to other late-type L and early-type T dwarfs. Fitting our data to a set of cloudy atmosphere models suggests the system has an age >1 Gyr with WISEP J061135.13-041024.0A having an effective temperature (Teff) of 1275-1325 K and mass of 64-65 M_Jup, and WISEP J061135.13-041024.0B having Teff = 1075-1115 K and mass 40-65 M_Jup.

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arXiv2014

Bayesian search for low-mass planets around nearby M dwarfs. Estimates for occurrence rate based on global detectability statistics

Due to their higher planet-star mass-ratios, M dwarfs are the easiest targets for detection of low-mass planets orbiting nearby stars using Doppler spectroscopy. Furthermore, because of their low masses and luminosities, Doppler measurements enable the detection of low-mass planets in their habitable zones that correspond to closer orbits than for Solar-type stars. We re-analyse literature UVES radial velocities of 41 nearby M dwarfs in a combination with new velocities obtained from publicly available spectra from the HARPS-ESO spectrograph of these stars in an attempt to constrain any low-amplitude Keplerian signals. We apply Bayesian signal detection criteria, together with posterior sampling techniques, in combination with noise models that take into account correlations in the data and obtain estimates for the number of planet candidates in the sample. More generally, we use the estimated detection probability function to calculate the occurrence rate of low-mass planets around nearby M dwarfs. We report eight new planet candidates in the sample (orbiting GJ 27.1, GJ 160.2, GJ 180, GJ 229, GJ 422, and GJ 682), including two new multiplanet systems, and confirm two previously known candidates in the GJ 433 system based on detections of Keplerian signals in the combined UVES and HARPS radial velocity data that cannot be explained by periodic and/or quasiperiodic phenomena related to stellar activities. Finally, we use the estimated detection probability function to calculate the occurrence rate of low-mass planets around nearby M dwarfs. According to our results, M dwarfs are hosts to an abundance of low-mass planets and the occurrence rate of planets less massive than 10 M$_{\oplus}$ is of the order of one planet per star, possibly even greater. ...

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arXiv2013

A dynamically-packed planetary system around GJ667C with three super-Earths in its habitable zone

Since low-mass stars have low luminosities, orbits at which liquid water can exist on Earth-sized planets are relatively close-in, which produces Doppler signals that are detectable using state-of-the-art Doppler spectroscopy. GJ 667C is already known to be orbited by two super-Earth candidates. We investigate whether the data supports the presence of additional companions. We obtain new Doppler measurements from HARPS extracted spectra and combined them with those obtained from the PFS and HIRES spectrographs. We used Bayesian and periodogram-based methods to re-assess the number of candidates and evaluated the confidence of each detection. Among other tests, we validated the planet candidates by analyzing correlations of each Doppler signal activity indices and investigate quasi-periodicity. Doppler measurements of GJ 667C are described better by six Keplerian-like signals: the two known candidates (b and c); three additional few-Earth mass candidates with periods of 92, 62 and 39 days (d, e and f); a cold super-Earth in a 260-day orbit (g) and tantalizing evidence of a $\sim$ 1 M$_\oplus$ object in a close-in orbit of 17 days (h). We explore whether long-term stable orbits are compatible with the data by integrating 8$\times 10^4$ solutions derived from the Bayesian samplings. The system consisting of six planets is compatible with dynamically stable configurations. As for the solar system, the most stable solutions do not contain mean-motion resonances and are described well by analytic Laplace-Lagrange solutions. The presence of a seventh planet (h) is supported by the fact that it appears squarely centered on the only island of stability left in the six-planet solution. Habitability assessments accounting for the stellar flux, as well as tidal dissipation effects, indicate that three (maybe four) planets are potentially habitable...

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arXiv2013

Status of the Calan-Hertfordshire Extrasolar Planet Search

In these proceedings we give a status update of the Calan-Hertfordshire Extrasolar Planet Search, an international collaboration led from Chile that aims to discover more planets around super metal-rich and Sun-like stars, and then follow these up with precision photometry to hunt for new bright transit planets. We highlight some results from this program, including exoplanet and brown dwarf discoveries, and a possible correlation between metallicity and planetary minimum mass at the lowest planetary masses detectable. Finally we discuss the short-term and long-term future pathways this program can take.

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arXiv2012

Signals embedded in the radial velocity noise. Periodic variations in the tau Ceti velocities

The abilities of radial velocity exoplanet surveys to detect the lowest-mass extra-solar planets are currently limited by a combination of instrument precision, lack of data, and "jitter". Jitter is a general term for any unknown features in the noise, and reflects a lack of detailed knowledge of stellar physics (asteroseismology, starspots, magnetic cycles, granulation, and other stellar surface phenomena), as well as the possible underestimation of instrument noise. We study an extensive set of radial velocities for the star HD 10700 ($τ$ Ceti) to determine the properties of the jitter arising from stellar surface inhomogeneities, activity, and telescope-instrument systems, and perform a comprehensive search for planetary signals in the radial velocities. We perform Bayesian comparisons of statistical models describing the radial velocity data to quantify the number of significant signals and the magnitude and properties of the excess noise in the data. We reach our goal by adding artificial signals to the "flat" radial velocity data of HD 10700 and by seeing which one of our statistical noise models receives the greatest posterior probabilities while still being able to extract the artificial signals correctly from the data. We utilise various noise components to assess properties of the noise in the data and analyse the HARPS, AAPS, and HIRES data for HD 10700 to quantify these properties and search for previously unknown low-amplitude Keplerian signals. ...

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arXiv2012

A Hot Uranus Orbiting the Super Metal-rich Star HD77338 and the Metallicity - Mass Connection

We announce the discovery of a low-mass planet orbiting the super metal-rich K0V star HD77338 as part of our on-going Calan-Hertfordshire Extrasolar Planet Search. The best fit planet solution has an orbital period of 5.7361\pm0.0015 days and with a radial velocity semi-amplitude of only 5.96\pm1.74 m/s, we find a minimum mass of 15.9+4.7-5.3 Me. The best fit eccentricity from this solution is 0.09+0.25-0.09, and we find agreement for this data set using a Bayesian analysis and a periodogram analysis. We measure a metallicity for the star of +0.35\pm0.06 dex, whereas another recent work (Trevisan et al. 2011) finds +0.47\pm0.05 dex. Thus HD77338b is one of the most metal-rich planet host stars known and the most metal-rich star hosting a sub-Neptune mass planet. We searched for a transit signature of HD77338b but none was detected. We also highlight an emerging trend where metallicity and mass seem to correlate at very low masses, a discovery that would be in agreement with the core accretion model of planet formation. The trend appears to show that for Neptune-mass planets and below, higher masses are preferred when the host star is more metal-rich. Also a lower boundary is apparent in the super metal-rich regime where there are no very low-mass planets yet discovered in comparison to the sub-solar metallicity regime. A Monte Carlo analysis shows that this, low-mass planet desert, is statistically significant with the current sample of 36 planets at around the 4.5σ level. In addition, results from Kepler strengthen the claim for this paucity of the lowest-mass planets in super metal-rich systems. Finally, this discovery adds to the growing population of low-mass planets around low-mass and metal-rich stars and shows that very low-mass planets can now be discovered with a relatively small number of data points using stable instrumentation.

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