arXiv subjects

Hugo Sant'Anna

Publications and source records attributed to Hugo Sant'Anna.

4 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Difference-in-differences with "bad controls"

This paper considers difference-in-differences identification strategies when the parallel trends assumption holds after conditioning on covariates that may themselves be affected by the treatment (often referred to as "bad controls"). We show that common approaches such as simply dropping bad controls are often ill-advised and develop two alternative approaches that allow bad controls to function as genuine controls despite being affected by treatment. First, we derive explicit conditions that rationalize conditioning only on pre-treatment values of the bad control, leading naturally to the Callaway and Sant'Anna (2021) estimator with pre-treatment values as covariates. Second, under a covariate unconfoundedness condition, we develop imputation and double/debiased machine learning estimators that recover the average treatment effect on the treated. We extend these results to staggered treatment adoption, provide pre-tests for the identifying assumptions, and apply the methods to study the effects of job displacement on earnings.

econ.EM↗

arXiv2024

Gender Differences in Comparative Advantage Matches: Evidence from Linked Employer-Employee Data

In this paper, I introduce a novel decomposition method based on Gaussian mixtures and k-Means clustering, applied to a large Brazilian administrative dataset, to analyze the gender wage gap through the lens of worker-firm interactions shaped by comparative advantage. These interactions generate wage levels in logs that exceed the simple sum of worker and firm components, making them challenging for traditional linear models to capture effectively. I find that these ``complementarity effects'' account for approximately 17% of the gender wage gap. Larger firms, high human capital, STEM degrees, and managerial roles are closely related to it. For instance, among managerial occupations, the match effect goes as high as one-third of the total gap. I also find women are less likely to be employed by firms offering higher returns to both human capital and firm-specific premiums, resulting in a significantly larger firm contribution to the gender wage gap than previously estimated. Combined, these factors explain nearly half of the overall gender wage gap, suggesting the importance of understanding firm-worker matches in addressing gender-based pay disparities.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2024

Labor Market Effects of the Venezuelan Refugee Crisis in Brazil

We use administrative panel data on the universe of Brazilian formal workers to investigate the labor market effects of the Venezuelan crisis in Brazil, focusing on the border state of Roraima. The results using difference-in-differences show that the monthly wages of Brazilians in Roraima increased by around 2 percent, which was mostly driven by those working in sectors and occupations with no refugee involvement. The study finds negligible job displacement for Brazilians but finds evidence of native workers moving to occupations without immigrants. We also find that immigrants in the informal market offset the substitution effects in the formal market.

econ.GN↗

arXiv2024

The Mariana Environmental Disaster and its Labor Market Effects

This paper examines the labor market impacts of the 2015 Mariana Dam disaster in Brazil. It contrasts two theoretical models: an urban spatial equilibrium model and a factor of production model, with diverging perspectives on environmental influences on labor outcomes. Utilizing rich national administrative and spatial data, the study reveals that the unusual environmental alteration, with minimal human capital loss, primarily affected outcomes via the factor of production channel. Nevertheless, spatial equilibrium dynamics are discernible within certain market segments. This research contributes to the growing literature on environmental changes and its economic consequences.

econ.GN↗