arXiv subjects

Huifu Xu

Publications and source records attributed to Huifu Xu.

33 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2025

Generalized Bayesian Nash Equilibrium with Continuous Type and Action Spaces

Bayesian game is a strategic decision-making model where each player's type parameter characterizing its own objective is private information: each player knows its own type but not its rivals' types, and Bayesian Nash equilibrium (BNE) is an outcome of this game where each player makes a strategic optimal decision according to its own type under the Nash conjecture. In this paper, we advance the literature by considering a generalized Bayesian game where each player's action space depends on its own type parameter and the rivals' actions. This reflects the fact that in practical applications, a firm's feasible action is often related to its own type (e.g. marginal cost) and the rivals' actions (e.g. common resource constraints in a competitive market). Under some moderate conditions, we demonstrate existence of continuous generalized Bayesian Nash equilibria (GBNE) and uniqueness of such an equilibrium when each player's action space is only dependent on its type. In the case that each player's action space is also dependent on rivals' actions, we give a simple example to show that uniqueness of GBNE is not guaranteed under standard monotone conditions. To compute an approximate GBNE, we restrict each player's response function to the space of polynomial functions of its type parameter and consequently convert the GBNE problem to a stochastic generalized Nash equilibrium problem (SGNE). To justify the approximation, we discuss convergence of the approximation scheme. Some preliminary numerical test results show that the approximation scheme works well.

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arXiv2024

Multistage Robust Average Randomized Spectral Risk Optimization

In this paper, we revisit the multistage spectral risk minimization models proposed by Philpott et al.~\cite{PdF13} and Guigues and Römisch \cite{GuR12} but with some new focuses. We consider a situation where the decision maker's (DM's) risk preferences may be state-dependent or even inconsistent at some states, and consequently there is not a single deterministic spectral risk measure (SRM) which can be used to represent the DM's preferences at each stage. We adopt the recently introduced average randomized SRM (ARSRM) (in \cite{li2022randomization}) to describe the DM's overall risk preference at each stage. To solve the resulting multistage ARSRM (MARSRM) problem, we apply the well-known stochastic dual dynamic programming (SDDP) method which generates a sequence of lower and upper bounds in an iterative manner. Under some moderate conditions, we prove that the optimal solution can be found in a finite number of iterations. The MARSRM model generalizes the one-stage ARSRM and simplifies the existing multistage state-dependent preference robust model \cite{liu2021multistage}, while also encompassing the mainstream multistage risk-neutral and risk-averse optimization models \cite{GuR12,PdF13}. In the absence of complete information on the probability distribution of the DM's random preferences, we propose to use distributionally robust ARSRM (DR-ARSRM) to describe the DM's preferences at each stage. We detail computational schemes for solving both MARSRM and DR-MARSRM. Finally, we examine the performance of MARSRM and DR-MARSRM by applying them to an asset allocation problem with transaction costs and compare them with standard risk neutral and risk averse multistage linear stochastic programming (MLSP) models.

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arXiv2024

Statistical Robustness of Kernel Learning Estimator with Respect to Data Perturbation

Inspired by the recent work [28] on the statistical robustness of empirical risks in reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) where the training data are potentially perturbed or even corrupted, we take a step further in this paper to investigate the statistical robustness of the kernel learning estimator (the regularized empirical risk minimizer or stationary point). We begin by deriving qualitative statistical robustness of the estimator of the regularized empirical risk minimizer for a broad class of convex cost functions when all of the training data are potentially perturbed under some topological structures, and then move on to consider the quantitative statistical robustness of the stationary solution for a specific case that the cost function is continuously differentiable but not necessarily convex. In the latter case, we derive the first-order optimality condition of the regularized expected risk minimization problem, which is essentially a stochastic variational inequality problem (SVIP) in RKHS, and then use the SVIP as a platform to investigate local and global Lipschitz continuity of the stationary solution against perturbation of the probability distribution under the Fortet-Mourier metric. A crucial assumption in the analysis is that the perturbed data are independent and identically distributed (iid). In some practical applications, this assumption may not be fulfilled when a small proportion of perceived data is seriously perturbed/contaminated. In this case, we use the influence function to investigate the impact of single data perturbation on the expected risk minimizer. Differing from [64, Chapter 10], we concentrate on constrained expected risk minimization problems. The research is essentially down to the derivation of the implicit function theorem of the SVIP in RKHS. Finally, we illustrate our theoretical analysis with a couple of academic examples.

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arXiv2024

Distributionally Preference Robust Optimization in Multi-Attribute Decision Making

Utility preference robust optimization (PRO) has recently been proposed to deal with optimal decision making problems where the decision maker's (DM) preference over gains and losses is ambiguous. In this paper, we take a step further to investigate the case that the DM's preference is not only ambiguous but also potentially inconsistent or even displaying some kind of randomness. We propose a distributionally preference robust optimization (DPRO) approach where the DM's preference is represented by a random utility function and the ambiguity is described by a set of probability distributions of the random utility. An obvious advantage of the new DPRO model is that it no longer concerns the DM's preference inconsistency. In the case when the random utility functions are of piecewise linear structure, we propose two statistical methods for constructing the ambiguity set: an ellipsoidal method and a bootstrap method both of which are fundamentally based on the idea of confidence region with the sample mean of the random parameters, and demonstrate how the resulting DPRO can be solved by a cutting surface algorithm and an MISOCP respectively. We also show how the DPRO models with general random utility functions may be approximated by those with piecewise linear random utility functions. Finally, we apply the proposed DPRO model in car manufacturing and facility location planning and show how the random samples may be extracted by multinomial logit method and conjoint analysis/machine learning. The paper is the first attempt to use distributionally robust optimization methods for PRO.

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arXiv2023

A Modified Late Arrival Penalised User Equilibrium Model and Robustness in Data Perturbation

In this paper, we revisit the LAPUE model with a different focus: we begin by adopting a new penalty function which gives a smooth transition of the boundary between lateness and no lateness and demonstrate the LAPUE model based on the new penalty function has a unique equilibrium and is stable with respect to (w.r.t.) small perturbation of probability distribution under moderate conditions. We then move on to discuss statistical robustness of the modified LAPUE (MLAPUE) model by considering the case that the data to be used for fitting the density function may be perturbed in practice or there is a discrepancy between the probability distribution of the underlying uncertainty constructed with empirical data and the true probability distribution in future, we investigate how the data perturbation may affect the equilibrium. We undertake the analysis from two perspectives: (a) a few data are perturbed by outliers and (b) all data are potentially perturbed. In case (a), we use the well-known influence function to quantify the sensitivity of the equilibrium by the outliers and in case (b) we examine the difference between empirical distributions of the equilibrium based on perturbed data and the equilibrium based on unperturbed data. To examine the performance of the MLAPUE model and our theoretical analysis of statistical robustness, we carry out some numerical experiments, the preliminary results confirm the statistical robustness as desired.

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arXiv2023

Multi-Attribute Utility Preference Robust Optimization: A Continuous Piecewise Linear Approximation Approach

In this paper, we consider a multi-attribute decision making problem where the decision maker's (DM's) objective is to maximize the expected utility of outcomes but the true utility function which captures the DM's risk preference is ambiguous. We propose a maximin multi-attribute utility preference robust optimization (UPRO) model where the optimal decision is based on the worst-case utility function in an ambiguity set of plausible utility functions constructed using partially available information such as the DM's specific preferences between some lotteries. Specifically, we consider a UPRO model with two attributes, where the DM's risk attitude is multivariate risk-averse and the ambiguity set is defined by a linear system of inequalities represented by the Lebesgue-Stieltjes (LS) integrals of the DM's utility functions. To solve the maximin problem, we propose an explicit piecewise linear approximation (EPLA) scheme to approximate the DM's true unknown utility so that the inner minimization problem reduces to a linear program, and we solve the approximate maximin problem by a derivative-free (Dfree) method. Moreover, by introducing binary variables to locate the position of the reward function in a family of simplices, we propose an implicit piecewise linear approximation (IPLA) representation of the approximate UPRO and solve it using the Dfree method. Such IPLA technique prompts us to reformulate the approximate UPRO as a single mixed-integer program (MIP) and extend the tractability of the approximate UPRO to the multi-attribute case. Furthermore, we extend the model to the expected utility maximization problem with expected utility constraints where the worst-case utility functions in the objective and constraints are considered simultaneously. Finally, we report the numerical results about performances of the proposed models.

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arXiv2023

Multistage Utility Preference Robust Optimization

In this paper, we consider a multistage expected utility maximization problem where the decision maker's utility function at each stage depends on historical data and the information on the true utility function is incomplete. To mitigate adverse impact arising from ambiguity of the true utility, we propose a maximin robust model where the optimal policy is based on the worst-case sequence of utility functions from an ambiguity set constructed with partially available information about the decision maker's preferences. We then show that the multistage maximin problem is time consistent when the utility functions are state-dependent and demonstrate with a counter example that the time consistency may not be retained when the utility functions are state-independent. With the time consistency, we show the maximin problem can be solved by a recursive formula whereby a one-stage maximin problem is solved at each stage beginning from the last stage. Moreover, we propose two approaches to construct the ambiguity set: a pairwise comparison approach and a zeta-ball approach where a ball of utility functions centered at a nominal utility function under zeta-metric is considered. To overcome the difficulty arising from solving the infinite dimensional optimization problem in computation of the worst-case expected utility value, we propose piecewise linear approximation of the utility functions and derive error bound for the approximation under moderate conditions. Finally, we use the SDDP method and the nested Benders' decomposition method to solve the multistage state-dependent preference robust problem and the scenario tree method to solve the state-independent problem, and carry out comparative analysis on the efficiency of the computational schemes as well as out-of-sample performances of the state-dependent and state-independent models.

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arXiv2023

Randomization of Spectral Risk Measure and Distributional Robustness

In this paper, we consider a situation where a decision maker's (DM's) risk preference can be described by a spectral risk measure (SRM) but there is not a single SRM which can be used to represent the DM's preferences consistently. Consequently we propose to randomize the SRM by introducing a random parameter in the risk spectrum. The randomized SRM (RSRM) allows one to describe the DM's preferences at different states with different SRMs. When the distribution of the random parameter is known, i.e., the randomness of the DM's preference can be described by a probability distribution, we introduce a new risk measure which is the mean value of the RSRM. In the case when the distribution is unknown, we propose a distributionally robust formulation of RSRM. The RSRM paradigm provides a new framework for interpreting the well-known Kusuoka's representation of law invariant coherent risk measures and addressing inconsistency issues arising from observation/measurement errors or erroneous responses in preference elicitation process. We discuss in detail computational schemes for solving optimization problems based on the RSRM and the distributionally robust RSRM.

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arXiv2022

Preference Robust Modified Optimized Certainty Equivalent

Ben-Tal and Teboulle \cite{BTT86} introduce the concept of optimized certainty equivalent (OCE) of an uncertain outcome as the maximum present value of a combination of the cash to be taken out from the uncertain income at present and the expected utility value of the remaining uncertain income. In this paper, we consider two variations of the OCE. First, we introduce a modified OCE by maximizing the combination of the utility of the cash and the expected utility of the remaining uncertain income so that the combined quantity is in a unified utility value. Second, we consider a situation where the true utility function is unknown but it is possible to use partially available information to construct a set of plausible utility functions. To mitigate the risk arising from the ambiguity, we introduce a robust model where the modified OCE is based on the worst-case utility function from the ambiguity set. In the case when the ambiguity set of utility functions is constructed by a Kantorovich ball centered at a nominal utility function, we show how the modified OCE and the corresponding worst case utility function can be identified by solving two linear programs alternatively. We also show the robust modified OCE is statistically robust in a data-driven environment where the underlying data are potentially contaminated. Some preliminary numerical results are reported to demonstrate the performance of the modified OCE and the robust modified OCE model.

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arXiv2021

Preference Robust Generalized Shortfall Risk Measure Based on the Cumulative Prospect Theory When the Value Function and Weighting Functions Are Ambiguous

The utility-based shortfall risk (SR) measure introduced by Folmer and Schied [15] has been recently extended by Mao and Cai [29] to cumulative prospect theory (CPT) based SR in order to better capture a decision maker's utility/risk preference. In this paper, we consider a situation where information on the value function and/or the weighting functions in the CPT based SR is incomplete. Instead of using partially available information to construct an approximate value function and weighting functions, we propose a robust approach to define a generalized shortfall risk which is based on a tuple of the worst case value/weighting functions from ambiguity sets of plausible value/weighting functions identified via available information. The ambiguity set may be constructed with elicited preference information (e.g. pairwise comparison questionnaires) and subjective judgement, and the ambiguity reduces as more and more preference information is obtained. Under some moderate conditions, we demonstrate how the subproblem of the robust shortfall risk measure can be calculated by solving a linear programming problem. To examine the performance of the proposed robust model and computational scheme, we carry out some numerical experiments and report preliminary test results. This work may be viewed as an extension of recent research of preference robust optimization models to the CPT based SR.

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arXiv2020

Quantitative Statistical Robustness for Tail-Dependent Law Invariant Risk Measures

When estimating the risk of a financial position with empirical data or Monte Carlo simulations via a tail-dependent law invariant risk measure such as the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR), it is important to ensure the robustness of the statistical estimator particularly when the data contain noise. Kratscher et al. [1] propose a new framework to examine the qualitative robustness of estimators for tail-dependent law invariant risk measures on Orlicz spaces, which is a step further from earlier work for studying the robustness of risk measurement procedures by Cont et al. [2]. In this paper, we follow the stream of research to propose a quantitative approach for verifying the statistical robustness of tail-dependent law invariant risk measures. A distinct feature of our approach is that we use the Fortet-Mourier metric to quantify the variation of the true underlying probability measure in the analysis of the discrepancy between the laws of the plug-in estimators of law invariant risk measure based on the true data and perturbed data, which enables us to derive an explicit error bound for the discrepancy when the risk functional is Lipschitz continuous with respect to a class of admissible laws. Moreover, the newly introduced notion of Lipschitz continuity allows us to examine the degree of robustness for tail-dependent risk measures. Finally, we apply our quantitative approach to some well-known risk measures to illustrate our theory.

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arXiv2020

Statistical Robustness of Empirical Risks in Machine Learning

This paper studies convergence of empirical risks in reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces (RKHS). A conventional assumption in the existing research is that empirical training data do not contain any noise but this may not be satisfied in some practical circumstances. Consequently the existing convergence results do not provide a guarantee as to whether empirical risks based on empirical data are reliable or not when the data contain some noise. In this paper, we fill out the gap in a few steps. First, we derive moderate sufficient conditions under which the expected risk changes stably (continuously) against small perturbation of the probability distribution of the underlying random variables and demonstrate how the cost function and kernel affect the stability. Second, we examine the difference between laws of the statistical estimators of the expected optimal loss based on pure data and contaminated data using Prokhorov metric and Kantorovich metric and derive some qualitative and quantitative statistical robustness results. Third, we identify appropriate metrics under which the statistical estimators are uniformly asymptotically consistent. These results provide theoretical grounding for analysing asymptotic convergence and examining reliability of the statistical estimators in a number of well-known machine learning models.

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arXiv2018

Preference Elicitation and Robust Optimization with Multi-Attribute Quasi-Concave Choice Functions

Decision maker's preferences are often captured by some choice functions which are used to rank prospects. In this paper, we consider ambiguity in choice functions over a multi-attribute prospect space. Our main result is a robust preference model where the optimal decision is based on the worst-case choice function from an ambiguity set constructed through preference elicitation with pairwise comparisons of prospects. Differing from existing works in the area, our focus is on quasi-concave choice functions rather than concave functions and this enables us to cover a wide range of utility/risk preference problems including multi-attribute expected utility and $S$-shaped aspirational risk preferences. The robust choice function is increasing and quasi-concave but not necessarily translation invariant, a key property of monetary risk measures. We propose two approaches based respectively on the support functions and level functions of quasi-concave functions to develop tractable formulations of the maximin preference robust optimization model. The former gives rise to a mixed integer linear programming problem whereas the latter is equivalent to solving a sequence of convex risk minimization problems. To assess the effectiveness of the proposed robust preference optimization model and numerical schemes, we apply them to a security budget allocation problem and report some preliminary results from experiments.

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arXiv2017

Continuous Behavioural Function Equilibria and Approximation Schemes in Bayesian Games with Non-Finite Type and Action Spaces

Meirowitz [17] showed existence of continuous behavioural function equilibria for Bayesian games with non-finite type and action spaces. A key condition for the proof of the existence result is equi-continuity of behavioural functions which, according to Meirowitz [17, page 215], is likely to fail or difficult to verify. In this paper, we advance the research by presenting some verifiable conditions for the required equi-continuity, namely some growth conditions of the expected utility functions of each player at equilibria. In the case when the growth is of second order, we demonstrate that the condition is guaranteed by strong concavity of the utility function. Moreover, by using recent research on polynomial decision rules and optimal discretization approaches in stochastic and robust optimization, we propose some approximation schemes for the Bayesian equilibrium problem: first, by restricting the behavioral functions to polynomial functions of certain order over the space of types, we demonstrate that solving a Bayesian polynomial behavioural function equilibrium is down to solving a finite dimensional stochastic equilibrium problem; second, we apply the optimal quantization method due to Pflug and Pichler [18] to develop an effective discretization scheme for solving the latter. Error bounds are derived for the respective approximation schemes under moderate conditions and both aca- demic examples and numerical results are presented to explain the Bayesian equilibrium problem and their approximation schemes.

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arXiv2017

Discrete Approximation of Two-Stage Stochastic and Distributionally Robust Linear Complementarity Problems

In this paper, we propose a discretization scheme for the two-stage stochastic linear complementarity problem (LCP) where the underlying random data are continuously distributed. Under some moderate conditions, we derive qualitative and quantitative convergence for the solutions obtained from solving the discretized two-stage stochastic LCP (SLCP). We explain how the discretized two-stage SLCP may be solved by the well-known progressive hedging method (PHM). Moreover, we extend the discussion by considering a two-stage distributionally robust LCP (DRLCP) with moment constraints and proposing a discretization scheme for the DRLCP. As an application, we show how the SLCP and DRLCP models can be used to study equilibrium arising from two-stage duopoly game where each player plans to set up its optimal capacity at present with anticipated competition for production in future.

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