arXiv subjects

Huixia Judy Wang

Publications and source records attributed to Huixia Judy Wang.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Causal Inference for Heterogeneous Extreme Quantiles with Heavy-Tailed Outcomes

We propose a framework for estimating conditional extreme quantile treatment effects (CEQTEs) in observational studies with heavy-tailed outcomes. Our procedure first estimates intermediate conditional quantiles using inverse-probability-weighted (IPW) quantile regression and then extrapolates them to extreme levels using extreme value theory. Under a linear conditional quantile model, we show that the conditional and marginal distributions of each potential outcome share a common extreme value index (EVI), motivating two complementary Hill-type EVI estimators based on conditional and marginal information, respectively. On the theoretical front, we introduce an IPW tail quantile score process that bridges regression quantile score processes and uniform tail empirical processes while accounting for treatment assignment. We establish its functional weak convergence under mild regularity conditions, without requiring a max-domain-of-attraction condition. This result provides the probabilistic foundation for the asymptotic analysis of the proposed CEQTE estimators. Simulation studies demonstrate favorable finite-sample performance, and an application to NLSY79 data reveals substantial heterogeneity in the effect of college education on extremely high hourly wages across confounder-defined subpopulations.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2026

Fin-R1: A Large Language Model for Financial Reasoning through Reinforcement Learning

In recent years, general-purpose large language models (LLMs) such as GPT, Gemini, Claude, and DeepSeek have advanced at an unprecedented pace. Despite these achievements, their application to finance remains challenging, due to fragmented data sources, intransparent reasoning processes, and weak transferability to business applications. In response, we introduce Fin-R1, a reasoning LLM designed for financial scenarios. With a compact size of 7 billion parameters, Fin-R1 reduces deployment costs while addressing the aforementioned challenges. Its development follows a two-stage pipeline. First, we construct Fin-R1-Data, a high-quality financial dataset consisting of 60,091 chain-of-thought (CoT) samples, distilled and filtered from multiple authoritative benchmarks to ensure consistency and reliability. Second, we train Fin-R1 using Fin-R1-Data through supervised fine-tuning (SFT), followed by reinforcement learning (RL). This stage substantially improves the model's ability to solve complex financial reasoning tasks, yielding outputs that are both accurate and interpretable. Despite its relatively small parameter scale, Fin-R1 achieves competitive empirical performance across established financial benchmarks and demonstrates practical utility in compliance checking and robo-advisory. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/SUFE-AIFLM-Lab/Fin-R1, and has already attracted over 700 stars.

cs.CL↗

arXiv2025

Deep neural expected shortfall regression with tail-robustness

Expected shortfall (ES), also known as conditional value-at-risk, is a widely recognized risk measure that complements value-at-risk by capturing tail-related risks more effectively. Compared with quantile regression, which has been extensively developed and applied across disciplines, ES regression remains in its early stage, partly because the traditional empirical risk minimization framework is not directly applicable. In this paper, we develop a nonparametric framework for expected shortfall regression based on a two-step approach that treats the conditional quantile function as a nuisance parameter. Leveraging the representational power of deep neural networks, we construct a two-step ES estimator using feedforward ReLU networks, which can alleviate the curse of dimensionality when the underlying functions possess hierarchical composition structures. However, ES estimation is inherently sensitive to heavy-tailed response or error distributions. To address this challenge, we integrate a properly tuned Huber loss into the neural network training, yielding a robust deep ES estimator that is provably resistant to heavy-tailedness in a non-asymptotic sense and first-order insensitive to quantile estimation errors in the first stage. Comprehensive simulation studies and an empirical analysis of the effect of El Niño on extreme precipitation illustrate the accuracy and robustness of the proposed method.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2025

Distribution-Free Prediction Sets for Regression under Target Shift

In real-world applications, the limited availability of labeled outcomes presents significant challenges for statistical inference due to high collection costs, technical barriers, and other constraints. In this work, we propose a method to construct efficient conformal prediction sets for new target outcomes by leveraging a source distribution that is distinct from the target but related through a distributional shift assumption and provides abundant labeled data. When the target data are fully unlabeled, our predictions rely solely on the source distribution, whereas partial target labels, when available, are integrated to improve efficiency. To address the challenges of data non-exchangeability and distribution non-identifiability, we identify the likelihood ratio by matching the covariate distributions of the source and target domains within a finite B-spline space. To accommodate complex error structures such as asymmetry and multimodality, our method constructs highest predictive density sets using a novel weight-adjusted conditional density estimator. This estimator models the source conditional density along a quantile process and transforms it, through appropriate weighting adjustments, to approximate the target conditional density. We establish the theoretical properties of the proposed method and evaluate its finite-sample performance through simulation studies and a real-data application to the MIMIC-III clinical database.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2022

Inference for Joint Quantile and Expected Shortfall Regression

Quantiles and expected shortfalls are commonly used risk measures in financial risk management. The two measurements are correlated while have distinguished features. In this project, our primary goal is to develop stable and practical inference method for conditional expected shortfall. To facilitate the statistical inference procedure, we consider the joint modeling of conditional quantile and expected shortfall. While the regression coefficients can be estimated jointly by minimizing a class of strictly consistent joint loss functions, the computation is challenging especially when the dimension of parameters is large since the loss functions are neither differentiable nor convex. To reduce the computational effort, we propose a two-step estimation procedure by first estimating the quantile regression parameters with standard quantile regression. We show that the two-step estimator has the same asymptotic properties as the joint estimator, but the former is numerically more efficient. We further develop a score-type inference method for hypothesis testing and confidence interval construction. Compared to the Wald-type method, the score method is robust against heterogeneity and is superior in finite samples, especially for cases with a large number of confounding factors. We demonstrate the advantages of the proposed methods over existing approaches through numerical studies.

stat.ME↗

arXiv2009

Quantile regression in partially linear varying coefficient models

Semiparametric models are often considered for analyzing longitudinal data for a good balance between flexibility and parsimony. In this paper, we study a class of marginal partially linear quantile models with possibly varying coefficients. The functional coefficients are estimated by basis function approximations. The estimation procedure is easy to implement, and it requires no specification of the error distributions. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are established for the varying coefficients as well as for the constant coefficients. We develop rank score tests for hypotheses on the coefficients, including the hypotheses on the constancy of a subset of the varying coefficients. Hypothesis testing of this type is theoretically challenging, as the dimensions of the parameter spaces under both the null and the alternative hypotheses are growing with the sample size. We assess the finite sample performance of the proposed method by Monte Carlo simulation studies, and demonstrate its value by the analysis of an AIDS data set, where the modeling of quantiles provides more comprehensive information than the usual least squares approach.

math.ST↗

arXiv2009

Inference for censored quantile regression models in longitudinal studies

We develop inference procedures for longitudinal data where some of the measurements are censored by fixed constants. We consider a semi-parametric quantile regression model that makes no distributional assumptions. Our research is motivated by the lack of proper inference procedures for data from biomedical studies where measurements are censored due to a fixed quantification limit. In such studies the focus is often on testing hypotheses about treatment equality. To this end, we propose a rank score test for large sample inference on a subset of the covariates. We demonstrate the importance of accounting for both censoring and intra-subject dependency and evaluate the performance of our proposed methodology in a simulation study. We then apply the proposed inference procedures to data from an AIDS-related clinical trial. We conclude that our framework and proposed methodology is very valuable for differentiating the influences of predictors at different locations in the conditional distribution of a response variable.

math.ST↗