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Hyeng Keun Koo

Publications and source records attributed to Hyeng Keun Koo.

12 recordsLinked to original sources

Scalable Pontryagin-Guided Adjoint-to-Control Recovery for Constrained Dynamic Portfolio Choice

We study continuous-time multi-asset portfolio choice and consumption under smooth pointwise constraints, including state-dependent feasible sets. The method separates dynamic information acquisition from local constrained recovery. A pointwise-feasible neural actor generates reference rollouts; after training, its realized latent outputs are frozen and first- and second-order adjoints are harvested from a fixed-latent open-loop backpropagation-through-time graph. Feedback therefore generates the reference trajectory without restricting the adjoint formulation to Markov controls. Conditional on the harvested adjoints, deployment solves a local generalized Pontryagin-Hamiltonian problem: quadratic-affine portfolio blocks are recovered exactly by a quadratic program, while a log barrier approximates more general regular KKT branches. We establish local chart representations, an OL-BPTT-to-adjoint correspondence retaining orthogonal martingale residuals, and an end-to-end bound from reference value loss and numerical errors to recovered-policy and local QP-gap errors. Analytical constant- and predictable-opportunity benchmarks validate the adjoints. Common-input experiments show that recovery reduces residual PMP/KKT error left by finite-budget direct policy optimization, including under a state-dependent consumption cap and with up to 100 risky assets. Scalability concerns the constrained action block rather than dimension-free state-space complexity.

q-fin.PM↗

Diffolio: A Diffusion Model for Multivariate Probabilistic Financial Time-Series Forecasting and Portfolio Construction

Probabilistic forecasting is crucial in multivariate financial time-series for constructing efficient portfolios that account for complex cross-sectional dependencies. In this paper, we propose Diffolio, a diffusion model designed for multivariate financial time-series forecasting and portfolio construction. Diffolio employs a denoising network with a hierarchical attention architecture, comprising both asset-level and market-level layers. Furthermore, to better reflect cross-sectional correlations, we introduce a correlation-guided regularizer informed by a stable estimate of the target correlation matrix. This structure effectively extracts salient features not only from historical returns but also from asset-specific and systematic covariates, significantly enhancing the performance of forecasts and portfolios. Experimental results on the daily excess returns of 12 industry portfolios show that Diffolio outperforms various probabilistic forecasting baselines in multivariate forecasting accuracy and portfolio performance. Moreover, in portfolio experiments, portfolios constructed from Diffolio's forecasts show consistently robust performance, thereby outperforming those from benchmarks by achieving higher Sharpe ratios for the mean-variance tangency portfolio and higher certainty equivalents for the growth-optimal portfolio. These results demonstrate the superiority of our proposed Diffolio in terms of not only statistical accuracy but also economic significance.

cs.CE↗

Breaking the Dimensional Barrier: Dynamic Portfolio Choice with Parameter Uncertainty via Pontryagin Projection

We study continuous-time CRRA portfolio choice in diffusion markets with estimated and hence uncertain coefficients. Nature draws a latent parameter $θ\sim q$ at time $0$ and keeps it fixed; the investor never observes $θ$ and must commit to a single $θ$-blind policy maximizing an ex-ante objective, treating $q$ as a decision-time input. We propose a simulation-only two-stage solver.Stage 1 (DPO) performs BPTT-based stochastic gradient ascent through an Euler simulator while sampling $θ$ only inside the simulator. Stage 2 (Pontryagin projection) aggregates costate blocks across $θ\sim q$ and enforces the $q$-aggregated stationarity condition within the deployable class; the resulting correction can be amortized via interactive distillation. We refer to the full Stage 1 + Stage 2 pipeline as PG-DPO.We prove a uniform conditional BPTT-PMP correspondence and a residual-based policy-gap bound with explicit discretization and Monte Carlo error terms. Experiments on high-dimensional Gaussian drift-uncertainty and factor-driven benchmarks show that projection stabilizes learning and accurately recovers analytic decision-time references, while a model-free PPO baseline remains far from the targets.

q-fin.CP↗

MarketGANs: Multivariate financial time-series data augmentation using generative adversarial networks

This paper introduces MarketGAN, a factor-based generative framework for high-dimensional asset return generation under severe data scarcity. We embed an explicit asset-pricing factor structure as an economic inductive bias and generate returns as a single joint vector, thereby preserving cross-sectional dependence and tail co-movement alongside inter-temporal dynamics. MarketGAN employs generative adversarial learning with a temporal convolutional network (TCN) backbone, which models stochastic, time-varying factor loadings and volatilities and captures long-range temporal dependence. Using daily returns of large U.S. equities, we find that MarketGAN more closely matches empirical stylized facts of asset returns, including heavy-tailed marginal distributions, volatility clustering, leverage effects, and, most notably, high-dimensional cross-sectional correlation structures and tail co-movement across assets, than conventional factor-model-based bootstrap approaches. In portfolio applications, covariance estimates derived from MarketGAN-generated samples outperform those derived from other methods when factor information is at least weakly informative, demonstrating tangible economic value.

q-fin.ST↗

Breaking the Dimensional Barrier for Constrained Dynamic Portfolio Choice

We propose a scalable, policy-centric framework for continuous-time multi-asset portfolio-consumption optimization under inequality constraints. Our method integrates neural policies with Pontryagin's Maximum Principle (PMP) and enforces feasibility by maximizing a log-barrier-regularized Hamiltonian at each time-state pair, thereby satisfying KKT conditions without value-function grids. Theoretically, we show that the barrier-regularized Hamiltonian yields O($ε$) policy error and a linear Hamiltonian gap (quadratic when the KKT solution is interior), and we extend the BPTT-PMP correspondence to constrained settings with stable costate convergence. Empirically, PG-DPO and its projected variant (P-PGDPO) recover KKT-optimal policies in canonical short-sale and consumption-cap problems while maintaining strict feasibility across dimensions; unlike PDE/BSDE solvers, runtime scales linearly with the number of assets and remains practical at n=100. These results provide a rigorous and scalable foundation for high-dimensional constrained continuous-time portfolio optimization.

q-fin.PM↗

Breaking the Dimensional Barrier: A Pontryagin-Guided Direct Policy Optimization for Continuous-Time Multi-Asset Portfolio Choice

We introduce the Pontryagin-Guided Direct Policy Optimization (PG-DPO) framework for high-dimensional continuous-time portfolio choice. Our approach combines Pontryagin's Maximum Principle (PMP) with backpropagation through time (BPTT) to directly inform neural network-based policy learning, enabling accurate recovery of both myopic and intertemporal hedging demands--an aspect often missed by existing methods. Building on this, we develop the Projected PG-DPO (P-PGDPO) variant, which achieves nearoptimal policies with substantially improved efficiency. P-PGDPO leverages rapidly stabilizing costate estimates from BPTT and analytically projects them onto PMP's first-order conditions, reducing training overhead while improving precision. Numerical experiments show that PG-DPO matches or exceeds the accuracy of Deep BSDE, while P-PGDPO delivers significantly higher precision and scalability. By explicitly incorporating time-to-maturity, our framework naturally applies to finite-horizon problems and captures horizon-dependent effects, with the long-horizon case emerging as a stationary special case.

q-fin.PM↗

Estimation of growth in fund models

Fund models are statistical descriptions of markets where all asset returns are spanned by the returns of a lower-dimensional collection of funds, modulo orthogonal noise. Equivalently, they may be characterised as models where the global growth-optimal portfolio only involves investment in the aforementioned funds. The loss of growth due to estimation error in fund models under local frequentist estimation is determined entirely by the number of funds. Furthermore, under a general filtering framework for Bayesian estimation, the loss of growth increases as the investment universe does. A shrinkage method that targets maximal growth with the least amount of deviation is proposed. Empirical evidence suggests that shrinkage gives a stable estimate that more closely follows growth potential than an unrestricted Bayesian estimate.

q-fin.PM↗

A Unified Approach to Retirement and Consumption-Portfolio Choice

In this study we propose a unified model of optimal retirement, consumption and portfolio choice of an individual agent, which encompasses a large class of the models in the literature and provide a general methodology to solve the model. Different from the traditional approach, we consider the problems before and after retirement simultaneously and identify the difference in the dual value functions as the utility value of lifetime labor. The utility value has an option nature, namely, it is the maximized value of choosing the retirement time optimally and we discover it by solving a variational inequality. Then, we discover the dual value functions by using the utility value. We discover the value function and optimal policies by establishing a duality between the value function and the dual value function.

math.OC↗

A problem of optimal switching and singular control with discretionary stopping in portfolio selection

In this paper we study the optimization problem of an economic agent who chooses a job and the time of retirement as well as consumption and portfolio of assets. The agent is constrained in the ability to borrow against future income. We transform the problem into a dual two-person zero-sum game, which involves a controller, who is a minimizer and chooses a non-increasing process, and a stopper, who is a maximizer and chooses a stopping time. We derive the Hamilton-Jacobi- Bellman quasi-variational inequality(HJBQV) of a max-min type arising from the game. We provide a solution to the HJBQV and verification that it is the value of the game. We establish a duality result which allows to derive the optimal strategies and value function of the primal problem from those of the dual problem.

math.OC↗

Optimal Insurance with Limited Commitment in a Finite Horizon

We study a finite horizon optimal contracting problem of a risk-neutral principal and a risk-averse agent who receives a stochastic income stream when the agent is unable to make commitments. The problem involves an infinite number of constraints at each time and each state of the world. Miao and Zhang (2015) have developed a dual approach to the problem by considering a Lagrangian and derived a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation in an infinite horizon. We consider a similar Lagrangian in a finite horizon, but transform the dual problem into an infinite series of optimal stopping problems. For each optimal stopping problem we provide an analytic solution by providing an integral equation representation for the free boundary. We provide a verification theorem that the value function of the original principal's problem is the Legender-Fenchel transform of the integral of the value functions of the optimal stopping problems. We also provide some numerical simulation results of optimal contracting strategies

econ.TH↗

Duesenberry's Theory of Consumption: Habit, Learning, and Ratcheting

This paper investigates the consumption and risk taking decision of an economic agent with partial irreversibility of consumption decision by formalizing the theory proposed by Duesenberry (1949). The optimal policies exhibit a type of the (s, S) policy: there are two wealth thresholds within which consumption stays constant. Consumption increases or decreases at the thresholds and after the adjustment new thresholds are set. The share of risky investment in the agent's total investment is inversely U-shaped within the (s, S) band, which generates time-varying risk aversion that can fluctuate widely over time. This property can explain puzzles and questions on asset pricing and households' portfolio choices, e.g., why aggregate consumption is so smooth whereas the high equity premium is high and the equity return has high volatility, why the risky share is so low whereas the estimated risk aversion by the micro-level data is small, and whether and when an increase in wealth has an impact on the risky share. Also, the partial irreversibility model can explain both the excess sensitivity and the excess smoothness of consumption.

econ.TH↗

Optimal Switching of One-Dimensional Reflected BSDEs, and Associated Multi-Dimensional BSDEs with Oblique Reflection

In this paper, an optimal switching problem is proposed for one-dimensional reflected backward stochastic differential equations (RBSDEs, for short) where the generators, the terminal values and the barriers are all switched with positive costs. The value process is characterized by a system of multi-dimensional RBSDEs with oblique reflection, whose existence and uniqueness are by no means trivial and are therefore carefully examined. Existence is shown using both methods of the Picard iteration and penalization, but under some different conditions. Uniqueness is proved by representation either as the value process to our optimal switching problem for one-dimensional RBSDEs, or as the equilibrium value process to a stochastic differential game of switching and stopping. Finally, the switched RBSDE is interpreted as a real option.

math.PR↗