arXiv subjects

I. G. Usoskin

Publications and source records attributed to I. G. Usoskin.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2026

Reconstruction of annual solar irradiance over the last three millennia

Solar irradiance measurements are limited to the last few decades, requiring reconstructions to assess solar variability on longer timescales and its impact on Earth's climate. We present the first physics-based reconstruction of total solar irradiance (TSI) at annual resolution over the last three millennia. The reconstruction is obtained by extending the SATIRE-T model beyond the telescopic era using recently published, annually resolved sunspot number series derived from cosmogenic isotope records. This yields a continuous, physics-based TSI record extending from the satellite era back over the last three millennia, with annual resolution throughout the pre-telescopic period. Over the full three-millennia interval, the reconstructed TSI exhibits a maximum difference of $1.04_{-0.2}^{+0.14}\,\mathrm{W\,m^{-2}}$, defined as the difference between the maximum and minimum of the 50-yr running mean values.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2023

Re-calibration of the Sunspot Number: Status Report

We report progress on the ongoing recalibration of the Wolf sunspot number (SN) and Group sunspot number (GN) following the release of version 2.0 of SN in 2015. This report constitutes both an update of the efforts reported in the 2016 Topical Issue of Solar Physics and a summary of work by the International Space Science Institute (ISSI) International Team formed in 2017 to develop optimal SN and GN re-construction methods while continuing to expand the historical sunspot number database. Significant progress has been made on the database side while more work is needed to bring the various proposed SN and (primarily) GN reconstruction methods closer to maturity, after which the new reconstructions (or combinations thereof) can be compared with (a) ``benchmark'' expectations for any normalization scheme (e.g., a general increase in observer normalization factors going back in time), and (b) independent proxy data series such as F10.7 and the daily range of variations of Earth's undisturbed magnetic field. New versions of the underlying databases for SN and GN will shortly become available for years through 2022 and we anticipate the release of next versions of these two time series in 2024.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

Modelling the evolution of the Sun's open and total magnetic flux

Solar activity in all its varied manifestations is driven by the magnetic field. Particularly important for many purposes are two global quantities, the Sun's total and open magnetic flux, which can be computed from sunspot number records using models. Such sunspot-driven models, however, do not take into account the presence of magnetic flux during grand minima, such as the Maunder minimum. Here we present a major update of a widely used simple model, which now takes into account the observation that the distribution of all magnetic features on the Sun follows a single power law. The exponent of the power law changes over the solar cycle. This allows for the emergence of small-scale magnetic flux even when no sunspots are present for multiple decades and leads to non-zero total and open magnetic flux also in the deepest grand minima, such as the Maunder minimum, thus overcoming a major shortcoming of the earlier models. The results of the updated model compare well with the available observations and reconstructions of the solar total and open magnetic flux. This opens up the possibility of improved reconstructions of sunspot number from time series of cosmogenic isotope production rate.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2021

Solar cyclic activity over the last millennium reconstructed from annual 14C data

The 11-year solar cycle is the dominant pattern of solar activity reflecting the oscillatory dynamo mechanism in the Sun. Solar cycles were directly observed since 1700, while indirect proxies suggest their existence over a much longer period of time but generally without resolving individual cycles and their continuity. Here we reconstruct individual cycles for the last millennium using recent 14C data and state-of-the-art models. Starting with the 14C production rate determined from the so far most precise measurements of radiocarbon content in tree rings, solar activity is reconstructed in three physics-based steps: (1) Correction of the 14C production rate for the changing geomagnetic field; (2) Computation of the open solar magnetic flux; and (3) Conversion into sunspot numbers outside of grand minima. Solar activity is reconstructed for the period 971-1900 (85 individual cycles). This more than doubles the number of solar cycles known from direct solar observations. We found that lengths and strengths of well-defined cycles outside grand minima are consistent with those obtained from the direct sunspot observations after 1750. The validity of the Waldmeier rule is confirmed at a highly significant level. Solar activity is found to be in a deep grand minimum when the activity is mostly below the sunspot formation threshold, during about 250 years. Therefore, although considerable cyclic variability in 14C is seen even during grand minima, individual solar cycles can hardly be reliably resolved therein. Three potential solar particle events, ca. 994, 1052 and 1279 AD, are shown. A new about 1000-year long solar activity reconstruction, in the form of annual (pseudo) sunspot numbers with full assessment of uncertainties, is presented based on new high-precision 14C measurements and state-of-the-art models, more than doubling the number of individually resolved solar cycles.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2020

A New Full 3-D Model of Cosmogenic Tritium $^3$H Production in the Atmosphere (CRAC:3H)

A new model of cosmogenic tritium ($^3$H) production in the atmosphere is presented. The model belongs to the CRAC (Cosmic-Ray Atmospheric Cascade) family and is named as CRAC:3H. It is based on a full Monte-Carlo simulation of the cosmic-ray induced atmospheric cascade using the Geant4 toolkit. The CRAC:3H model is able, for the first time, to compute tritium production at any location and time, for any given energy spectrum of the primary incident cosmic ray particles, explicitly treating, also for the first time, particles heavier than protons. This model provides a useful tool for the use of $^3$H as a tracer of atmospheric and hydrological circulation. A numerical recipe for practical use of the model is appended.

astro-ph.EP↗

arXiv2019

Assessment of the Radiation Environment at Commercial Jet Flight Altitudes During GLE 72 on 10 September 2017 Using Neutron Monitor Data

As a result of intense solar activity during the first ten days of September, a ground level enhancement occurred on September 10, 2017. Here we computed the effective dose rates in the polar region at several altitudes during the event using the derived rigidity spectra of the energetic solar protons. The contribution of different populations of energetic particles viz. galactic cosmic rays and solar protons, to the exposure is explicitly considered and compared. We also assessed the exposure of a crew members/passengers to radiation at different locations and at several cruise flight altitudes and calculated the received doses for two typical intercontinental flights. The estimated received dose during a high-latitude, 40 kft, $\sim$ 10 h flight is $\sim$ 100 $μ$Sv.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2018

Solar total and spectral irradiance reconstruction over the last 9000 years

Changes in solar irradiance and in its spectral distribution are among the main natural drivers of the climate on Earth. However, irradiance measurements are only available for less than four decades, while assessment of solar influence on Earth requires much longer records. The aim of this work is to provide the most up-to-date physics-based reconstruction of the solar total and spectral irradiance (TSI/SSI) over the last nine millennia. The concentrations of the cosmogenic isotopes 14C and 10Be in natural archives have been converted to decadally averaged sunspot numbers through a chain of physics-based models. TSI and SSI are reconstructed with an updated SATIRE model. Reconstructions are carried out for each isotope record separately, as well as for their composite. We present the first ever SSI reconstruction over the last 9000 years from the individual 14C and 10Be records as well as from their newest composite. The reconstruction employs physics-based models to describe the involved processes at each step of the procedure. Irradiance reconstructions based on two different cosmogenic isotope records, those of 14C and 10Be, agree well with each other in their long-term trends despite their different geochemical paths in the atmosphere of Earth. Over the last 9000 years, the reconstructed secular variability in TSI is of the order of 0.11%, or 1.5 W/m2. After the Maunder minimum, the reconstruction from the cosmogenic isotopes is consistent with that from the direct sunspot number observation. Furthermore, over the nineteenth century, the agreement of irradiance reconstructions using isotope records with the reconstruction from the sunspot number by Chatzistergos et al. (2017) is better than that with the reconstruction from the WDC-SILSO series (Clette et al. 2014), with a lower chi-square-value.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2018

First analysis of GLE 72 event on 10 September 2017: Spectral and anisotropy characteristics

Using neutron monitor and space-borne data we performed an analysis of the second ground level enhancement of solar cycle 24, namely the event of 10 September 2017 (GLE 72) and derive the spectral and angular characteristics of GLE particles. We employ new neutron monitor yield function and a recently proposed model based on optimization procedure. The method consists of simulation of particle propagation in a model magnetosphere in order to derive the cut-off rigidity and neutron monitor asymptotic directions. Subsequently the rigidity spectrum and anisotropy of GLE particles are obtained in their dynamical evolution during the event on the basis of inverse problem solution. The derived angular distribution and spectra are briefly discussed.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2018

Solar energetic particles and galactic cosmic rays over millions of years as inferred from data on cosmogenic $^{26}$Al in lunar samples

Aims. Lunar soil and rocks are not protected by a magnetic field or an atmosphere and are continuously irradiated by energetic particles that can produce cosmogenic radioisotopes directly inside rocks at different depths depending on the particle's energy. This allows the mean fluxes of solar and galactic cosmic rays to be assessed on the very long timescales of millions of years. Methods. Here we show that lunar rocks can serve as a very good particle integral spectrometer in the energy range 20-80 MeV. We have developed a new method based on precise modeling, that is applied to measurements of $^{26}$Al (half-life ~0.7 megayears) in lunar samples from the Apollo mission, and present the first direct reconstruction (i.e., without any a priori assumptions) of the mean energy spectrum of solar and galactic energetic particles over a million of years. Results. We show that the reconstructed spectrum of solar energetic particles is totally consistent with that over the last decades, despite the very different levels of solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays ($ϕ=496\pm 40$ MV over a million years versus $ϕ= 660\pm 20$ MV for the modern epoch). We also estimated the occurrence probability of extreme solar events and argue that no events with the F(>30 MeV) fluence exceeding $5*10^{10}$ and $10^{11}$ cm$^2$ are expected on timescales of a thousand and million years, respectively. Conclusions. We conclude that the mean flux of solar energetic particles hardly depends on the level of solar activity, in contrast to the solar modulation of galactic cosmic rays. This puts new observational constraints on solar physics and becomes important for assessing radiation hazards for the planned space missions.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2018

Solar activity over nine millennia: A consistent multi-proxy reconstruction

Solar activity in the past millennia can only be reconstructed from cosmogenic radionuclide records in terrestrial archives. However, because of the diversity of the proxy archives, it is difficult to build a homogeneous reconstruction. Here we provide a new consistent multiproxy reconstruction of the solar activity over the last 9000 years, using available long-span datasets of 10Be and 14C in terrestrial archives. A new method, based on a Bayesian approach, was applied for the first time to solar activity reconstruction. A Monte Carlo search for the most probable value of the modulation potential was performed to match data from different datasets for a given time. We used six 10Be series from Greenland and Antarctica, and the global 14C production series. The 10Be series were resampled to match wiggles related to the grand minima in the 14C reference dataset. The GRIP and the EDML 10Be series diverge from each other during the second half of the Holocene, while the 14C series lies between them. A likely reason for this is the insufficiently precise beryllium transport and deposition model for Greenland. A slow 6-millennia variability with lows at ca. 5500 BC and 1500 AD of solar activity is found. Two components of solar activity can be statistically distinguished: the main 'normal' component and a component corresponding to grand minima. A possible existence of a component representing grand maxima is indicated, but it cannot be separated from the main component in a statistically significant manner. A new consistent reconstruction of solar activity over the last nine millennia is presented with the most probable values of decadal sunspot numbers and their realistic uncertainties. Independent components of solar activity corresponding to the main moderate activity and the grand-minimum state are identified; they may be related to different operation modes of the dynamo.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2018

Extreme value theory applied to the millennial sunspot number series

In this work, we use two decadal sunspot number series reconstructed from cosmogenic radionuclide data (14C in tree trunks, SN-14C and 10Be in polar ice, SN-10Be) and the Extreme Value Theory to study variability of solar activity during the last 9 millennia. The peaks-over-threshold technique was used to compute, in particular, the shape parameter of the generalized Pareto distribution for different thresholds. Its negative value implies an upper bound of the extreme SN-10Be and SN-14C time series. The return level for 1000 and 10000 years were estimated leading to values lower than the maximum observed values, expected for the 1000-year, but not for the 10000-year return levels, for both series. A comparison of these results with those obtained using the observed sunspot numbers from telescopic observations during the last four centuries suggest that the main characteristics of solar activity have already been recorded in the telescopic period (from 1610 to nowadays) which covers the full range of solar variability from a Grand minimum to a Grand maximum.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2017

GLE and Sub-GLE Redefinition in the Light of High-Altitude Polar Neutron Monitors

The conventional definition of ground-level enhancement (GLE) events requires a detection of solar energetic particles (SEP) by at least two differently located neutron monitors. Some places are exceptionally well suitable for ground-based detection of SEP - high-elevation polar regions with negligible geomagnetic and reduced atmospheric energy/rigidity cutoffs. At present, there are two neutron-monitor stations in such locations on the Antarctic plateau: SOPO/SOPB (at Amundsen-Scott station, 2835 m elevation), and DOMC/DOMB (at Concordia station, 3233 m elevation). Since 2015, when the DOMC/DOMB station started continuous operation, a relatively weak SEP event that was not detected by sea-level neutron-monitor stations was registered by both SOPO/SOPB and DOMC/DOMB, and it was accordingly classified as a GLE. This would lead to a distortion of the homogeneity of the historic GLE list and the corresponding statistics. To address this issue, we propose to modify the GLE definition so that it maintains the homogeneity: A GLE event is registered when there are near-time coincident and statistically significant enhancements of the count rates of at least two differently located neutron monitors, including at least one neutron monitor near sea level and a corresponding enhancement in the proton flux measured by a space-borne instrument(s). Relatively weak SEP events registered only by high-altitude polar neutron monitors, but with no response from cosmic-ray stations at sea level, can be classified as sub-GLEs.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2017

Can superflares occur on the Sun? A view from dynamo theory

Recent data from the Kepler mission has revealed the occurrence of superflares in sun-like stars which exceed by far any observed solar flares in release of energy. A natural idea is that the dynamo mechanism in superflaring stars differs in some respect from that in the Sun. We search for a difference in the dynamo-related parameters between superflaring stars and the Sun to suggest a dynamo-mechanism as close as possible to the conventional solar/stellar dynamo but capable of providing much higher magnetic energy. Dynamo based on joint action of differential rotation and mirror asymmetric motions can in principle result in excitation of two types of magnetic fields. First of all, it is well-known in solar physics dynamo waves. The point is that another magnetic configuration with initial growth and further stabilisation is also possible for excitation. For comparable conditions, magnetic field strength of second configuration is much larger rather of the first one just because dynamo do not spend its efforts for periodic magnetic field inversions but use its for magnetic field growth. We analysed available data from the Kepler mission concerning the superflaring stars in order to find tracers of anomalous magnetic activity. Starting from the recent paper, we find that anti-solar differential rotation or anti-solar sign of the mirror-asymmetry of stellar convection can provide the desired strong magnetic field in dynamo models. We confirm this concept by numerical models of stellar dynamos with corresponding governing parameters. We conclude that the proposed mechanism can plausibly explain the superflaring events at least for some cool stars, including binaries, subgiants and, possibly, low-mass stars and young rapid rotators.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2016

An Optical Atmospheric Phenomenon Observed in 1670 over the City of Astrakhan Was not a Mid-Latitude Aurora

It has been recently claimed (Zolotova and Ponyavin, Solar Phys., 291, 2869, 2016, ZP16 henceforth) that a mid-latitude optical phenomenon, which took place over the city of Astrakhan in July 1670, according to Russian chronicles, was a strong aurora borealis. If this was true, it would imply a very strong or even severe geomagnetic storm during the quietest part of the Maunder minimum. However, as we argue in this article, this conclusion is erroneous and caused by a misinterpretation of the chronicle record. As a result of a thorough analysis of the chronicle text, we show that the described phenomenon occurred during the daylight period of the day ("the last morning hour"), in the south direction ("towards noon"), and its description does not match that of an aurora. The date of the event was also incorrectly interpreted. We conclude that this phenomenon was not a mid-latitude aurora but an atmospheric phenomenon, the so-called sundog (or parhelion) which is a particular type of solar halo. Accordingly, the claim about a strong mid-latitude aurora during the deep Maunder minimum is not correct and should be dismissed.

physics.ao-ph↗

arXiv2016

Neutron Monitor Yield Function: New Improved computations

A ground-based neutron monitor is a standard tool to measure cosmic ray variability near Earth, and it is crucially important to know its yield function for primary cosmic rays. Although there are several earlier theoretically calculated yield functions, none of them agrees with experimental data of latitude surveys of sea-level neutron monitors, thus suggesting for an inconsistency. A newly computed yield function of the standard sea-level 6NM64 neutron monitor is presented here separately for primary cosmic ray protons and $α-$particles, the latter representing also heavier species of cosmic rays. The computations have been done using the GEANT-4 Planetocosmics Monte-Carlo tool and a realistic curved atmospheric model. For the first time, an effect of the geometrical correction of the neutron monitor effective area, related to the finite lateral expansion of the cosmic ray induced atmospheric cascade, is considered, that was neglected in the previous studies. This correction slightly enhances the relative impact of higher-energy cosmic rays (energy above 5--10 GeV/nucleon) in neutron monitor count rate. The new computation finally resolves the long-standing problem of disagreement between the theoretically calculated spatial variability of cosmic rays over the globe and experimental latitude surveys. The newly calculated yield function, corrected for this geometrical factor, appears fully consistent with the experimental latitude surveys of neutron monitors performed during three consecutive solar minima in 1976--77, 1986--87 and 1996--97. Thus, we provide a new yield function of the standard sea-level neutron monitor 6NM64 that is validated against experimental data.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2016

Analysis of Ground Level Enhancements (GLE): Extreme solar energetic particle events have hard spectra

Nearly 70 Ground Level Enhancements (GLEs) of cosmic rays have been recorded by the worldwide neutron monitor network since the 1950s depicting a big variety of energy spectra of solar energetic particles (SEP). Here we studied a statistical relation between the event-integrated intensity of GLEs (calculated as count-rate relative excess, averaged over all available polar neutron monitors, and expressed in percent-hours) and the hardness of the solar particle energy spectra. For each event the integral omnidirectional event-integrated fluences of particles with energy above 30 MeV ($F_{30}$) and above 200 MeV ($F_{200}$) were computed using the reconstructed spectra, and the ratio between the two fluences was considered as a simple index of the event's hardness. We also provided a justification of the spectrum estimate in the form of the Band-function, using direct PAMELA data for GLE 71 (17-May-2012). We found that, while there is no clear relation between the intensity and the hardness for weak events, all strong events with the intensity greater 100 \%*hr are characterized by a very hard spectrum. This implies that a hard spectrum can be securely assumed for all extreme GLE events, e.g., those studied using cosmogenic isotope data in the past.

physics.space-ph↗

arXiv2016

Dependence of the Sunspot-group Size on the Level of Solar Activity and its Influence on the Calibration of Solar Observers

The distribution of the sunspot group size (area) and its dependence on the level of solar activity is studied. It is shown that the fraction of small groups is not constant but decreases with the level of solar activity so that high solar activity is largely defined by big groups. We study the possible influence of solar activity on the ability of a realistic observer to see and report the daily number of sunspot groups. It is shown that the relation between the number of sunspot groups as seen by different observers with different observational acuity thresholds is strongly non-linear and cannot be approximated by the traditionally used linear scaling ($k-$factors). The observational acuity threshold [$A_{\rm th}$] is considered to quantify the quality of each observer, instead of the traditional relative $k-$factor. A nonlinear $c-$factor based on $A_{\rm th}$ is proposed, which can be used to correct each observer to the reference conditions. The method is tested on a pair of principal solar observers, Wolf and Wolfer, and it is shown that the traditional linear correction, with the constant $k-$factor of 1.66 to scale Wolf to Wolfer, leads to an overestimate of solar activity around solar maxima.

astro-ph.SR↗

arXiv2016

Solar activity during the Holocene: the Hallstatt cycle and its consequence for grand minima and maxim

Cosmogenic isotopes provide the only quantitative proxy for analyzing the long-term solar variability over a centennial timescale. While essential progress has been achieved in both measurements and modeling of the cosmogenic proxy, uncertainties still remain in the determination of the geomagnetic dipole moment evolution. Here we improve the reconstruction of solar activity over the past nine millennia using a multi-proxy approach. We used records of the 14C and 10Be cosmogenic isotopes, current numerical models of the isotope production and transport in Earth's atmosphere, and available geomagnetic field reconstructions, including a new reconstruction relying on an updated archeo-/paleointensity database. The obtained series were analyzed using the singular spectrum analysis (SSA) method to study the millennial-scale trends. A new reconstruction of the geomagnetic dipole field moment, GMAG.9k, is built for the last nine millennia. New reconstructions of solar activity covering the last nine millennia, quantified in sunspot numbers, are presented and analyzed. A conservative list of grand minima and maxima is provided. The primary components of the reconstructed solar activity, as determined using the SSA method, are different for the series based on 14C and 10Be. These primary components can only be ascribed to long-term changes in the terrestrial system and not to the Sun. They have been removed from the reconstructed series. In contrast, the secondary SSA components of the reconstructed solar activity are found to be dominated by a common ~2400-yr quasi-periodicity, the so-called Hallstatt cycle, in both the 14C and 10Be based series. This Hallstatt cycle thus appears to be related to solar activity. Finally, we show that the grand minima and maxima occurred intermittently over the studied period, with clustering near highs and lows of the Hallstatt cycle, respectively.

astro-ph.SR↗