arXiv subjects

I. Luna-Pla

Publications and source records attributed to I. Luna-Pla.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

arXiv2025

Prosecution of complex criminal networks: a multilevel ERGMs approach to CICIG's judicial cases

Prosecutors are essential in combating organized crime, making key decisions about prosecution, target selection, and structuring imputation strategies. Despite their importance, the configuration of these strategies remains empirically underexplored. This study engages with that premise by considering the cases investigated by the International Commission Against Impunity in Guatemala (CICIG) and focusing specifically on the role of prosecutors, aiming to uncover how their discretionary decisions translated the CICIG mandate into operational practices intended to achieve systemic deterrence, and to what extent, can we talk about deterrence effectiveness. The research employs a multilevel Exponential Random Graph Model (ERGM) analysis, integrating three networks: the criminal network of actors involved in illegal activities, the legal framework network that represents offenses, and the prosecution network that connects actors to offenses. The model assesses whether the observed network aligns with deterrence-based theoretical assumptions and examines how punishment severity can be effective when it disrupts functional ties that sustain criminal activity -both through long-term sanctions and by increasing the perceived threat of punishment among co-offenders. This approach underscores the need for prosecutorial strategies to evolve beyond a case-by-case model toward a multi-case, multi-offender imputation framework that fully integrates intelligence and data-driven analysis to dismantle criminal networks.

physics.soc-ph↗

arXiv2023

Organized crime behavior of shell-company networks in procurement: prevention insights for policy and reform

In recent years, the analysis of economic crime and corruption in procurement has benefited from integrative studies that acknowledge the interconnected nature of the procurement ecosystem. Following this line of research, we present a networks approach for the analysis of shell-companies operations in procurement that makes use of contracting and ownership data under one framework to gain knowledge about the organized crime behavior that emerges in this setting. In this approach, ownership and management data are used to identify connected components in shell-company networks that, together with the contracting data, allows to develop an alternative representation of the traditional buyer-supplier network: the module-component bipartite network, where the modules are groups of buyers and the connected components are groups of suppliers. This is applied to two documented cases of procurement corruption in Mexico characterized by the involvement of large groups of shell-companies in the misappropriation of millions of dollars across many sectors. We quantify the economic impact of single versus connected shell-companies operations. In addition, we incorporate metrics for the diversity of operations and favoritism levels. This paper builds into the quantitative organized crime in the private sector studies and contributes by proposing a networks approach for preventing fraud and understanding the need for legal reforms.

physics.soc-ph↗