arXiv subjects

Iain Murray

Publications and source records attributed to Iain Murray.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

arXiv2018

Fast $ε$-free Inference of Simulation Models with Bayesian Conditional Density Estimation

Many statistical models can be simulated forwards but have intractable likelihoods. Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods are used to infer properties of these models from data. Traditionally these methods approximate the posterior over parameters by conditioning on data being inside an $ε$-ball around the observed data, which is only correct in the limit $ε\!\rightarrow\!0$. Monte Carlo methods can then draw samples from the approximate posterior to approximate predictions or error bars on parameters. These algorithms critically slow down as $ε\!\rightarrow\!0$, and in practice draw samples from a broader distribution than the posterior. We propose a new approach to likelihood-free inference based on Bayesian conditional density estimation. Preliminary inferences based on limited simulation data are used to guide later simulations. In some cases, learning an accurate parametric representation of the entire true posterior distribution requires fewer model simulations than Monte Carlo ABC methods need to produce a single sample from an approximate posterior.

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arXiv2017

Dynamic Evaluation of Neural Sequence Models

We present methodology for using dynamic evaluation to improve neural sequence models. Models are adapted to recent history via a gradient descent based mechanism, causing them to assign higher probabilities to re-occurring sequential patterns. Dynamic evaluation outperforms existing adaptation approaches in our comparisons. Dynamic evaluation improves the state-of-the-art word-level perplexities on the Penn Treebank and WikiText-2 datasets to 51.1 and 44.3 respectively, and the state-of-the-art character-level cross-entropies on the text8 and Hutter Prize datasets to 1.19 bits/char and 1.08 bits/char respectively.

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arXiv2017

Multiplicative LSTM for sequence modelling

We introduce multiplicative LSTM (mLSTM), a recurrent neural network architecture for sequence modelling that combines the long short-term memory (LSTM) and multiplicative recurrent neural network architectures. mLSTM is characterised by its ability to have different recurrent transition functions for each possible input, which we argue makes it more expressive for autoregressive density estimation. We demonstrate empirically that mLSTM outperforms standard LSTM and its deep variants for a range of character level language modelling tasks. In this version of the paper, we regularise mLSTM to achieve 1.27 bits/char on text8 and 1.24 bits/char on Hutter Prize. We also apply a purely byte-level mLSTM on the WikiText-2 dataset to achieve a character level entropy of 1.26 bits/char, corresponding to a word level perplexity of 88.8, which is comparable to word level LSTMs regularised in similar ways on the same task.

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arXiv2017

A determinant-free method to simulate the parameters of large Gaussian fields

We propose a determinant-free approach for simulation-based Bayesian inference in high-dimensional Gaussian models. We introduce auxiliary variables with covariance equal to the inverse covariance of the model. The joint probability of the auxiliary model can be computed without evaluating determinants, which are often hard to compute in high dimensions. We develop a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling scheme for the auxiliary model that requires no more than the application of inverse-matrix-square-roots and the solution of linear systems. These operations can be performed at large scales with rational approximations. We provide an empirical study on both synthetic and real-world data for sparse Gaussian processes and for large-scale Gaussian Markov random fields.

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arXiv2017

Markov Chain Truncation for Doubly-Intractable Inference

Computing partition functions, the normalizing constants of probability distributions, is often hard. Variants of importance sampling give unbiased estimates of a normalizer Z, however, unbiased estimates of the reciprocal 1/Z are harder to obtain. Unbiased estimates of 1/Z allow Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling of "doubly-intractable" distributions, such as the parameter posterior for Markov Random Fields or Exponential Random Graphs. We demonstrate how to construct unbiased estimates for 1/Z given access to black-box importance sampling estimators for Z. We adapt recent work on random series truncation and Markov chain coupling, producing estimators with lower variance and a higher percentage of positive estimates than before. Our debiasing algorithms are simple to implement, and have some theoretical and empirical advantages over existing methods.

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arXiv2016

Neural Autoregressive Distribution Estimation

We present Neural Autoregressive Distribution Estimation (NADE) models, which are neural network architectures applied to the problem of unsupervised distribution and density estimation. They leverage the probability product rule and a weight sharing scheme inspired from restricted Boltzmann machines, to yield an estimator that is both tractable and has good generalization performance. We discuss how they achieve competitive performance in modeling both binary and real-valued observations. We also present how deep NADE models can be trained to be agnostic to the ordering of input dimensions used by the autoregressive product rule decomposition. Finally, we also show how to exploit the topological structure of pixels in images using a deep convolutional architecture for NADE.

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arXiv2016

Pseudo-Marginal Slice Sampling

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods asymptotically sample from complex probability distributions. The pseudo-marginal MCMC framework only requires an unbiased estimator of the unnormalized probability distribution function to construct a Markov chain. However, the resulting chains are harder to tune to a target distribution than conventional MCMC, and the types of updates available are limited. We describe a general way to clamp and update the random numbers used in a pseudo-marginal method's unbiased estimator. In this framework we can use slice sampling and other adaptive methods. We obtain more robust Markov chains, which often mix more quickly.

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arXiv2016

Differentiation of the Cholesky decomposition

We review strategies for differentiating matrix-based computations, and derive symbolic and algorithmic update rules for differentiating expressions containing the Cholesky decomposition. We recommend new `blocked' algorithms, based on differentiating the Cholesky algorithm DPOTRF in the LAPACK library, which uses `Level 3' matrix-matrix operations from BLAS, and so is cache-friendly and easy to parallelize. For large matrices, the resulting algorithms are the fastest way to compute Cholesky derivatives, and are an order of magnitude faster than the algorithms in common usage. In some computing environments, symbolically-derived updates are faster for small matrices than those based on differentiating Cholesky algorithms. The symbolic and algorithmic approaches can be combined to get the best of both worlds.

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arXiv2015

MADE: Masked Autoencoder for Distribution Estimation

There has been a lot of recent interest in designing neural network models to estimate a distribution from a set of examples. We introduce a simple modification for autoencoder neural networks that yields powerful generative models. Our method masks the autoencoder's parameters to respect autoregressive constraints: each input is reconstructed only from previous inputs in a given ordering. Constrained this way, the autoencoder outputs can be interpreted as a set of conditional probabilities, and their product, the full joint probability. We can also train a single network that can decompose the joint probability in multiple different orderings. Our simple framework can be applied to multiple architectures, including deep ones. Vectorized implementations, such as on GPUs, are simple and fast. Experiments demonstrate that this approach is competitive with state-of-the-art tractable distribution estimators. At test time, the method is significantly faster and scales better than other autoregressive estimators.

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arXiv2014

Incorporating Side Information in Probabilistic Matrix Factorization with Gaussian Processes

Probabilistic matrix factorization (PMF) is a powerful method for modeling data associ- ated with pairwise relationships, Finding use in collaborative Filtering, computational bi- ology, and document analysis, among other areas. In many domains, there are additional covariates that can assist in prediction. For example, when modeling movie ratings, we might know when the rating occurred, where the user lives, or what actors appear in the movie. It is difficult, however, to incorporate this side information into the PMF model. We propose a framework for incorporating side information by coupling together multi- ple PMF problems via Gaussian process priors. We replace scalar latent features with func- tions that vary over the covariate space. The GP priors on these functions require them to vary smoothly and share information. We apply this new method to predict the scores of professional basketball games, where side information about the venue and date of the game are relevant for the outcome.

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arXiv2014

Parallel MCMC with Generalized Elliptical Slice Sampling

Probabilistic models are conceptually powerful tools for finding structure in data, but their practical effectiveness is often limited by our ability to perform inference in them. Exact inference is frequently intractable, so approximate inference is often performed using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). To achieve the best possible results from MCMC, we want to efficiently simulate many steps of a rapidly mixing Markov chain which leaves the target distribution invariant. Of particular interest in this regard is how to take advantage of multi-core computing to speed up MCMC-based inference, both to improve mixing and to distribute the computational load. In this paper, we present a parallelizable Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for efficiently sampling from continuous probability distributions that can take advantage of hundreds of cores. This method shares information between parallel Markov chains to build a scale-mixture of Gaussians approximation to the density function of the target distribution. We combine this approximation with a recent method known as elliptical slice sampling to create a Markov chain with no step-size parameters that can mix rapidly without requiring gradient or curvature computations.

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arXiv2014

A Deep and Tractable Density Estimator

The Neural Autoregressive Distribution Estimator (NADE) and its real-valued version RNADE are competitive density models of multidimensional data across a variety of domains. These models use a fixed, arbitrary ordering of the data dimensions. One can easily condition on variables at the beginning of the ordering, and marginalize out variables at the end of the ordering, however other inference tasks require approximate inference. In this work we introduce an efficient procedure to simultaneously train a NADE model for each possible ordering of the variables, by sharing parameters across all these models. We can thus use the most convenient model for each inference task at hand, and ensembles of such models with different orderings are immediately available. Moreover, unlike the original NADE, our training procedure scales to deep models. Empirically, ensembles of Deep NADE models obtain state of the art density estimation performance.

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arXiv2014

RNADE: The real-valued neural autoregressive density-estimator

We introduce RNADE, a new model for joint density estimation of real-valued vectors. Our model calculates the density of a datapoint as the product of one-dimensional conditionals modeled using mixture density networks with shared parameters. RNADE learns a distributed representation of the data, while having a tractable expression for the calculation of densities. A tractable likelihood allows direct comparison with other methods and training by standard gradient-based optimizers. We compare the performance of RNADE on several datasets of heterogeneous and perceptual data, finding it outperforms mixture models in all but one case.

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arXiv2012

A Framework for Evaluating Approximation Methods for Gaussian Process Regression

Gaussian process (GP) predictors are an important component of many Bayesian approaches to machine learning. However, even a straightforward implementation of Gaussian process regression (GPR) requires O(n^2) space and O(n^3) time for a dataset of n examples. Several approximation methods have been proposed, but there is a lack of understanding of the relative merits of the different approximations, and in what situations they are most useful. We recommend assessing the quality of the predictions obtained as a function of the compute time taken, and comparing to standard baselines (e.g., Subset of Data and FITC). We empirically investigate four different approximation algorithms on four different prediction problems, and make our code available to encourage future comparisons.

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arXiv2012

Bayesian Learning in Undirected Graphical Models: Approximate MCMC algorithms

Bayesian learning in undirected graphical models|computing posterior distributions over parameters and predictive quantities is exceptionally difficult. We conjecture that for general undirected models, there are no tractable MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo) schemes giving the correct equilibrium distribution over parameters. While this intractability, due to the partition function, is familiar to those performing parameter optimisation, Bayesian learning of posterior distributions over undirected model parameters has been unexplored and poses novel challenges. we propose several approximate MCMC schemes and test on fully observed binary models (Boltzmann machines) for a small coronary heart disease data set and larger artificial systems. While approximations must perform well on the model, their interaction with the sampling scheme is also important. Samplers based on variational mean- field approximations generally performed poorly, more advanced methods using loopy propagation, brief sampling and stochastic dynamics lead to acceptable parameter posteriors. Finally, we demonstrate these techniques on a Markov random field with hidden variables.

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arXiv2012

MCMC for doubly-intractable distributions

Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are routinely used to draw samples from distributions with intractable normalization constants. However, standard MCMC algorithms do not apply to doubly-intractable distributions in which there are additional parameter-dependent normalization terms; for example, the posterior over parameters of an undirected graphical model. An ingenious auxiliary-variable scheme (Moeller et al., 2004) offers a solution: exact sampling (Propp and Wilson, 1996) is used to sample from a Metropolis-Hastings proposal for which the acceptance probability is tractable. Unfortunately the acceptance probability of these expensive updates can be low. This paper provides a generalization of Moeller et al. (2004) and a new MCMC algorithm, which obtains better acceptance probabilities for the same amount of exact sampling, and removes the need to estimate model parameters before sampling begins.

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arXiv2012

Driving Markov chain Monte Carlo with a dependent random stream

Markov chain Monte Carlo is a widely-used technique for generating a dependent sequence of samples from complex distributions. Conventionally, these methods require a source of independent random variates. Most implementations use pseudo-random numbers instead because generating true independent variates with a physical system is not straightforward. In this paper we show how to modify some commonly used Markov chains to use a dependent stream of random numbers in place of independent uniform variates. The resulting Markov chains have the correct invariant distribution without requiring detailed knowledge of the stream's dependencies or even its marginal distribution. As a side-effect, sometimes far fewer random numbers are required to obtain accurate results.

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arXiv2010

Slice sampling covariance hyperparameters of latent Gaussian models

The Gaussian process (GP) is a popular way to specify dependencies between random variables in a probabilistic model. In the Bayesian framework the covariance structure can be specified using unknown hyperparameters. Integrating over these hyperparameters considers different possible explanations for the data when making predictions. This integration is often performed using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling. However, with non-Gaussian observations standard hyperparameter sampling approaches require careful tuning and may converge slowly. In this paper we present a slice sampling approach that requires little tuning while mixing well in both strong- and weak-data regimes.

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